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In a rather impressive win for long range modelling (they've been showing this as a system near Florida for about 2 weeks) Tropical Storm Delta has formed south of Jamaica.

In terms of track there seems good confidence from the NHC and Euro ensembles for a generally NW track before a late turn somewhere as it gets picked up. It currently makes landfall daytime Friday for us so about 5 days time.

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al262020/eps_track_by_model_late/aal26_2020100506_eps_track_by_model_late.png

In terms of strength shear looks low for the next two days before becoming strong around day 4-5, this coupled with SST's cooling in the northern Gulf (the amplified pattern currently producing our northerlies has been sending unusually strong cold fronts south through the US) suggests that the system will probably peak somewhere in the southern Gulf Of Mexico and the NHC currently brings Delta to category 2 strength. 

It is worth noting that the SHIPS guidance gives a 60% chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours and a 62% of a 65KT increase through 72 hours (suggests 60KT tomorrow and 100KT by day 3). 

Reasonable chance then of our third major hurricane of the season and a probable surge threat to the Gulf Coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145422_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL262020/GEOCOLOR/20202791550_GOES16-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-AL262020-1000x1000.jpg

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

60H 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

72H 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

96H 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

 

Edited by Jo Farrow
now hurricane
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Not mentioned in this thread but Delta was declared as making landfall at 23:00 our time last night ...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CREOLE LOUISIANA...   National Weather Service Doppler r

When he was driving through the surge you could see his car getting taken by the water. He's lucky he found that spot when he did as the car was about to get swept away

All the ways Hurricane Delta is a historic storm (It's a long list). https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/07/weather/historic-storm-hurricane-delta/index.html

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Don't be surprised if this ends up as a category-5 at some point in the next 36hrs. Also pressure is very low compared to what you'd expect, somewhat close to what we'd see usually in the WPAC. Recon just extrapolated a 978.4mbs which for a borderline high end TS/cat-1 cane is a very impressive pressure recording. 

Also don't be surprised if this ends up somewhat close to 900mbs as well tomorrow providing it doesn't have any unexpected hiccups.

Edited by kold weather
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Yeah, Delta increased 30mph and dropped ~15mb since i went to bed. 

968mb, 100mph. Category 2. 

HMON and HWRF hurricane models (highly rated for strength since they are specialist tropical models) are both 929mb into Cancun. This will be easily the worst hit since Wilma.

NHC bring Delta to category 4 in about a day (130mph). SHIPS suggests a 55% chance of 120KT inside 36 hours (135-140mph). 

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Yup, this is looking like a nasty storm now. The key question is how much of an impact will it take if it hits the Yucatan Penninsula? If it avoids this and moves further east, than this could become a really strong Hurricane as it moves towards the south coast of the US (in fact I think it may already be a major by the time it hits Yucatan).

Pretty worrying.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Some strong structural development overnight, though it hasn't as of yet been able to keep a solid eyewall around that very small eye which has stopped it from really bombing. With that being said, IR is starting to become very suggestive of a pinhole eye and recon reported a 8nm eye.

Still a reasonable chance of getting to cat-5 with this, though as with all pinhole eyes it will be somewhat at the mercy of tiny changes aloft and internal structural changes.

If the eye does pop out, expect some very rapid deepening.

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37 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup, this is looking like a nasty storm now. The key question is how much of an impact will it take if it hits the Yucatan Penninsula? If it avoids this and moves further east, than this could become a really strong Hurricane as it moves towards the south coast of the US (in fact I think it may already be a major by the time it hits Yucatan).

Pretty worrying.

It will weaken before US landfall, cold fronts have already reduced sea surface temperatures to about 26C. Even at speed it will weaken quickly from major intensity.

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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

It will weaken before US landfall, cold fronts have already reduced sea surface temperatures to about 26C. Even at speed it will weaken quickly from major intensity.

Ah, that is less concerning than at least. What were the SSTs when Michael made landfall (just for comparison)?.

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31 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Ah, that is less concerning than at least. What were the SSTs when Michael made landfall (just for comparison)?.

It basically will pull an Opal from 1995, or Lili from 2002, where it will probably get to 4/5 (my bet is the latter) somewhere in the Nw Caribbean, or if it does miss the Yucatan, then possibly far south of the Gulf. The further west it can get the longer it will stay in the warmer waters, but the coastal shelf looks like it has cooled alot, so it will probably develop quite a lopsided look like many weakening canes tend to do coming into landfall in the GoM area. Still could be a 2/3 though IMO.

Extrapolated pressure down to 959mbs. going to be some big drops I suspect today. Still think somewhere between 900-920mbs looking possible.

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...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY...

962mb, 110mph at the latest update.

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Latest recon dropsonde almost certainly justifies 100kts, possibly even 105kts. 115kts recorded from the dropsonde, allowing for that being a possible gust, we still likely have major hurricane Delta and it will join Beta 05 as the 2nd such 'greek' hurricane to become a major.

Eye should be popping out soon on IR more clearly, on zoomed in imagery the eye is quite easy to spot even in visible. 

5mbs drop between the last 2 passes.

Edited by kold weather
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Well it was a cat-3 for all of about 2hrs!

Thats very explosive strengthening happening at the moment. Been on the cards for a while but I see little reason not to call for a cat-5 now, the waters its travelling are the most favourable in the entire basin and it historically has popped off deep systems in the past. The heat content is basically akin to the WPAC - and this system is evolving into a system similar.

Also - hard to not look back at Wilma and see some comparisons...worryingly its probably near 950mbs and 130mph and still hasn't got an obvious clear eye yet.

Edited by kold weather
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Uh-oh, not the pinhole eye. That's very bad news. Reminds me of Wilma and more recently Maria - both went from tropical storm to Category 5 in no time at all. An 18mb drop in little over seven hours - the next advisory could be anything at this stage. 

Trackwise it's pretty much where Gilbert was when it also bombed into a monster storm, only Delta should spend less time over Yucatan and more time over the Gulf of Mexico.

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1 hour ago, Ryukai said:

Eye? What eye??? Since when did cat 4 hurricanes need an eye??? 🤪

deltawhateye.thumb.gif.55c6416f9d9b9231c54db2b0e81d288e.gif

The Eye is only 4 miles in Diameter. so its very compact with a small and extremely intense core.

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