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Arctic Refreeze Season: 2020/21


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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    An update on the sea ice losses in Okhotsk, which continued yesterday.

    Anim18Small.thumb.gif.9244cc7f50c089372c461919e71ed277.gif

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    Aaannnd, the same animation but for the whole month (a larger, better quality version is on the twitter page too)

    Here are the images for today. I'm going to start updating these roughly twice per week from now on.   

    A comparison of the first 13 days of surface air temperature anomalies across the Arctic. The lack of -ve anomalies and the increasingly widespread +10C anomalies of the last 5 years or so is quite so

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    NSIDC extent has dropped by 264,000 km2 in the last 2 days, going from 11th to 3rd lowest on record, mainly due to the Sea of Okhotsk.

    COmbGraphImageNSIDCFeb18.thumb.png.acf691d3800d53ac8189c02a45f1be24.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Over the last 10 days, persistent southerly winds have been driving open water north of Svalbard towards the N. Pole. Further, in the last few days, sea ice has been breaking up and moving away from the north east of coast Greenland. Unusual for Feb, but I'm not quite sure if it's unprecedented...

    NP_Anim_22.thumb.gif.2ddb2107e18624db28ccce38a8db07ff.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    25 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Over the last 10 days, persistent southerly winds have been driving open water north of Svalbard towards the N. Pole. Further, in the last few days, sea ice has been breaking up and moving away from the north east of coast Greenland. Unusual for Feb, but I'm not quite sure if it's unprecedented...

    NP_Anim_22.thumb.gif.2ddb2107e18624db28ccce38a8db07ff.gif

    2018 around this time saw that impressive ice lifting off Greenland so not totally unprecedented by any means. 

    Given how far the open water reached last year despite the ice sticking to Svalbard even well into June, then the open water to the north of Svalbard has to be a concern and it seems almost certain Atlantification could be quite severe by September. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Slow animation for the last week.

    AnimSmallF28.thumb.gif.07811a2b692d8f8874862543b90b0a98.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    On 22/02/2021 at 15:11, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Over the last 10 days, persistent southerly winds have been driving open water north of Svalbard towards the N. Pole. Further, in the last few days, sea ice has been breaking up and moving away from the north east of coast Greenland. Unusual for Feb, but I'm not quite sure if it's unprecedented...

     

    I'm not sure it will be unusual for Feb for long?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Volume remains the 3rd lowest on record, above 2017 and 2018. It continues to do rell along the Russian Arctic coast, but the central Arctic Basin in just about lowest on record.

    VOlumeALL_EndFeb.thumb.png.b3eafe6c40bd01546e6a9d895861b33d.pngRussianVolume_EndFeb.thumb.png.9ada7c7743a7bea1fd98a774297bce55.pngCAB_EndFeb.thumb.png.570cc7ccca38cb8f874c13010fe1e4c0.png

    ALLReg_EndFeb.thumb.png.0bc74c41f33dfae612fd8de787417a31.png

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    Posted
  • Location: SW Sheffield (200m asl)
  • Location: SW Sheffield (200m asl)

    Has there been any recent scientific research to predict an ice free arctic basin in the summer?  What year can we expect this?

    Edited by The Future
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    16 hours ago, The Future said:

    Has there been any recent scientific research to predict an ice free arctic basin in the summer?  What year can we expect this?

    Latest I heard (a few years back) in terms of climate models was an estimate of about 2035, though most models still predict mid-century. Climate models have really struggled to accurately capture the rate of Arctic sea ice loss so it's generally acknowledged that getting below 1 million km2 (the cut off for ice-free) could happen much sooner.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Slow animation for the week. Bering Sea fluctuating with the storms, regrowth in Okhotsk, Barents and Greenland Seas.
    The continuation of ice free conditions in the Gulf of St Lawrence and losses in Baffin Bay are interesting.

    AnimationReg.thumb.gif.829b185d4f24aeed263265e6048a1633.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
    8 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Latest I heard (a few years back) in terms of climate models was an estimate of about 2035, though most models still predict mid-century. Climate models have really struggled to accurately capture the rate of Arctic sea ice loss so it's generally acknowledged that getting below 1 million km2 (the cut off for ice-free) could happen much sooner.

    Think one certainty is any model is usually wrong.  So just a best guess scenario. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

    Think one certainty is any model is usually wrong.  So just a best guess scenario. 

    Yeah, I think the phrase is something like all models are wrong but some are useful. Still, my guess would be first "ice-free" September day around the end of this decade. Perhaps I'll set up a poll later to gauge peoples opinions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    February 2021 had the joint 7th lowest extent on record.

    1,332,000 km2 below the 1980s
    1,052,000 km2 below the 1990s
    485,000 km2 below the 2000s
    9,000km2 above the 2010s

    FebAnimLQ.thumb.gif.0965991c2cfaa93de89db4189809ef4c.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The ups and downs in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk over the last few weeks. An unusual amount of variability, especially in the Sea of Okhotsk during Feb, with storms hitting the Bering Sea more since March

    AnimBerOkh_LQ.thumb.gif.9005df0b2397dedc79f5283ae0f626c0.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    As it looks like the maximum has been reached (8th lowest on record), here's the min to max at 10 day intervals.

    MintoMaxReg.thumb.gif.946ec2a126df52c06f5857c219ef9c2e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest PIOMAS volume data is out.
    2021 is 5th lowest on record, above 2011, 2016 2017 and 2018. It's also: 8,000 km³ below 1980s average, 6,700 km³ below 1990s average, 3,300 km³ below 2000s average and equal to the 2010s average

    AllMidMarch.thumb.png.55e6fdcaf9eef45fa22a137d88372cd9.png

    The Russian Seas are up to the 4th most volume since 2000, while the central Arctic basin has climbed to 3rd lowest

    RussMidMarch.thumb.png.38296420f8e64d3397f1e8a0bc9c0dcc.png CABMidMarch.thumb.png.6fa3649bae30ea385589cac550e21adb.png

    All regions, for 2021, 2020 and the 3 lowest volume years are below.

     

    RegMidMarch.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Looks like the sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk has taken a big hit in the last 2 days.

    Okh_melt_lq.thumb.gif.48bed72479044889d5d9d5df676f1ec7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Slow animation for the last week. Looks like losses are edging gains at the moment.

    AnimMar20LQ.thumb.gif.34b894d821e424a995c7db1b331679ba.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    With the NSIDC daily extent now over quarter of a million km2 below the March 11th value, I think it's safe to call the max.
    Here's an animation of the extent map and graph. The trend is a little over -400,000 km2 per decade.

    MaxBasicAnimLQ.thumb.gif.a896e7ebe57f7c28e5e932bc76fb0913.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Think it's time for the good old melting season thread now and see what this year has to offer. As ever it's looking interesting I say. 

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