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I would assume still, mainly because turbulence would imply some low pressure nearby and thus clouds, which could impede energy loss. It's a tricky one though, and matters how close the Atlantic water is to the surface, difference between the air, sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, etc.

Anywho, here's the slow animation of the past week. ADS/JAXA extent is now lowest on record by 631k 

AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.5152a3236ddaa24b5bad884dce4c8ecb.gif

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Here are the images for today. I'm going to start updating these roughly twice per week from now on.   

As tempting as it may be, we need to keep politics out of the discussion here. They tend to result in bickering that quickly loses relevance to the thread topic, so there's a general ban on it across

A comparison of the first 13 days of surface air temperature anomalies across the Arctic. The lack of -ve anomalies and the increasingly widespread +10C anomalies of the last 5 years or so is quite so

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Media reporting that we have the equivalent of ten times the size of Germany currently unfrozen compared to the mid 1980s. That quote brings it home for me. 

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4 hours ago, shuggee said:

Media reporting that we have the equivalent of ten times the size of Germany currently unfrozen compared to the mid 1980s. That quote brings it home for me. 

Yes, an eye opener indeed!  Not good and what would we give to get the good old days back?!

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It also shows how we're in somewhat of a negative feedback loop which makes an ice-free Arctic closer. If the water in the basin is absorbing ever more heat from being ice-free longer, then the ice the following winter takes longer to form and ends up thinner, which then thaws quicker in the following spring. We then have even more open water for a longer time and the cycle continues. Add to that the slow warming and its certainly a recipe for further falls in the coming years.

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6 hours ago, reef said:

It also shows how we're in somewhat of a negative feedback loop which makes an ice-free Arctic closer. If the water in the basin is absorbing ever more heat from being ice-free longer, then the ice the following winter takes longer to form and ends up thinner, which then thaws quicker in the following spring. We then have even more open water for a longer time and the cycle continues. Add to that the slow warming and its certainly a recipe for further falls in the coming years.

Indeed, I think what you find is if one region is doing alright for ice, you know for sure another region is well below average. I mean this time next year, it could be the opposite way round with the Beaufort quick to melt and slow to refreeze whilst the Siberian arctic is slower to melt and quicker to refreeze. 

In terms of a slower refreeze means thinner ice cover then maybe but ice grows to around 2 metres thick quite quickly then slows down. The reason why the Siberian side of the basin had thinner ice and lack of fast ice was due to the positive AO which meant a lack of high pressure compacting the ice against the Siberian coastline. Complete contrast to the start of the melt season in 2018 where there was a lot of thick ice in this region and despite high summer temperatures, it persisted as long as it could. This year with a record breaking retreat of Siberian snowcover and June heatwaves, the ice was always going to retreat very quickly although this did to an extent helped the CAB ice not becoming diffused like it did in 2016. 

In terms of a BOE, ice getting past 85 degrees north is a tough task, but what was impressive this year just how much the Atlantic side retreated in the 2nd half of the melt season, totally did not see that coming.

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On 24/10/2020 at 17:46, Don said:

Yes, an eye opener indeed!  Not good and what would we give to get the good old days back?!

Step one of a thousand steps to getting the old days back is the elimination of Donald Trump as a political force.  So its over to the American people and fingers crossed on November 3rd.

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As tempting as it may be, we need to keep politics out of the discussion here. They tend to result in bickering that quickly loses relevance to the thread topic, so there's a general ban on it across the site.

Anyway, here's a side by side comparison of 2012 and 2020 for the first 25 days of October, where we've gone from 310,000 km2 more extent than 2012, to  1,504,000 km2 less than 2012.

Animation25Small.thumb.gif.116aa023fdcb7f770ef752711ba8e234.gif

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It’s saying something that after finally managing three century gains, in fact a 1.5 century on 25th, 2020 is still 853,215 square km below 2nd lowest for the date (2019) in the JAXA observations.

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And yet, very little ice is growing from the main ice pack. As I say, this will only get worse and worse as the planet continues to warm.

Relying on coastal ice and for SSTS to cool with ice needing to form and attach to the main ice pack before the Laptev even can refreeze. We saw that happen in the last 2 years but how long is it going to take this year. Unfortunately there is signs the PV may split so good luck getting much ice developing if that happens. 

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On the latest update to October 27ᵗʰ, daily NSIDC extent is now lowest on record by a staggering 1,012,000 km2.
As it's the Czechoslovac state day in the Czech Republic, this equates to over 13 times the land area of the Czech Republic.

NSIDC27th.thumb.jpg.756c7ce6408cbccaee90cd1e42f67c19.jpg

This anomaly is largely down to the continued lack of substantial ice growth along the Russian Arctic. The annual cumulative anomaly for this region is already the most -ve on record, yet there's still over two months of the year to go.

RussianSeas.thumb.jpg.a4ff2e3e0b4ea526dd5dc4db234469b4.jpg

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