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I would assume still, mainly because turbulence would imply some low pressure nearby and thus clouds, which could impede energy loss. It's a tricky one though, and matters how close the Atlantic water is to the surface, difference between the air, sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, etc.

Anywho, here's the slow animation of the past week. ADS/JAXA extent is now lowest on record by 631k 

AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.5152a3236ddaa24b5bad884dce4c8ecb.gif

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Here are the images for today. I'm going to start updating these roughly twice per week from now on.   

Aaannnd, the same animation but for the whole month (a larger, better quality version is on the twitter page too)

As tempting as it may be, we need to keep politics out of the discussion here. They tend to result in bickering that quickly loses relevance to the thread topic, so there's a general ban on it across

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Media reporting that we have the equivalent of ten times the size of Germany currently unfrozen compared to the mid 1980s. That quote brings it home for me. 

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4 hours ago, shuggee said:

Media reporting that we have the equivalent of ten times the size of Germany currently unfrozen compared to the mid 1980s. That quote brings it home for me. 

Yes, an eye opener indeed!  Not good and what would we give to get the good old days back?!

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It also shows how we're in somewhat of a negative feedback loop which makes an ice-free Arctic closer. If the water in the basin is absorbing ever more heat from being ice-free longer, then the ice the following winter takes longer to form and ends up thinner, which then thaws quicker in the following spring. We then have even more open water for a longer time and the cycle continues. Add to that the slow warming and its certainly a recipe for further falls in the coming years.

Edited by reef
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6 hours ago, reef said:

It also shows how we're in somewhat of a negative feedback loop which makes an ice-free Arctic closer. If the water in the basin is absorbing ever more heat from being ice-free longer, then the ice the following winter takes longer to form and ends up thinner, which then thaws quicker in the following spring. We then have even more open water for a longer time and the cycle continues. Add to that the slow warming and its certainly a recipe for further falls in the coming years.

Indeed, I think what you find is if one region is doing alright for ice, you know for sure another region is well below average. I mean this time next year, it could be the opposite way round with the Beaufort quick to melt and slow to refreeze whilst the Siberian arctic is slower to melt and quicker to refreeze. 

In terms of a slower refreeze means thinner ice cover then maybe but ice grows to around 2 metres thick quite quickly then slows down. The reason why the Siberian side of the basin had thinner ice and lack of fast ice was due to the positive AO which meant a lack of high pressure compacting the ice against the Siberian coastline. Complete contrast to the start of the melt season in 2018 where there was a lot of thick ice in this region and despite high summer temperatures, it persisted as long as it could. This year with a record breaking retreat of Siberian snowcover and June heatwaves, the ice was always going to retreat very quickly although this did to an extent helped the CAB ice not becoming diffused like it did in 2016. 

In terms of a BOE, ice getting past 85 degrees north is a tough task, but what was impressive this year just how much the Atlantic side retreated in the 2nd half of the melt season, totally did not see that coming.

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On 24/10/2020 at 17:46, Don said:

Yes, an eye opener indeed!  Not good and what would we give to get the good old days back?!

Step one of a thousand steps to getting the old days back is the elimination of Donald Trump as a political force.  So its over to the American people and fingers crossed on November 3rd.

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As tempting as it may be, we need to keep politics out of the discussion here. They tend to result in bickering that quickly loses relevance to the thread topic, so there's a general ban on it across the site.

Anyway, here's a side by side comparison of 2012 and 2020 for the first 25 days of October, where we've gone from 310,000 km2 more extent than 2012, to  1,504,000 km2 less than 2012.

Animation25Small.thumb.gif.116aa023fdcb7f770ef752711ba8e234.gif

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It’s saying something that after finally managing three century gains, in fact a 1.5 century on 25th, 2020 is still 853,215 square km below 2nd lowest for the date (2019) in the JAXA observations.

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And yet, very little ice is growing from the main ice pack. As I say, this will only get worse and worse as the planet continues to warm.

Relying on coastal ice and for SSTS to cool with ice needing to form and attach to the main ice pack before the Laptev even can refreeze. We saw that happen in the last 2 years but how long is it going to take this year. Unfortunately there is signs the PV may split so good luck getting much ice developing if that happens. 

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On the latest update to October 27ᵗʰ, daily NSIDC extent is now lowest on record by a staggering 1,012,000 km2.
As it's the Czechoslovac state day in the Czech Republic, this equates to over 13 times the land area of the Czech Republic.

NSIDC27th.thumb.jpg.756c7ce6408cbccaee90cd1e42f67c19.jpg

This anomaly is largely down to the continued lack of substantial ice growth along the Russian Arctic. The annual cumulative anomaly for this region is already the most -ve on record, yet there's still over two months of the year to go.

RussianSeas.thumb.jpg.a4ff2e3e0b4ea526dd5dc4db234469b4.jpg

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I'm not sure if one is caused by the other, or if it's all just pointing in the same direction by horrible coincidence this year, but with methane concentrations 400 times above equilibrium, the release of clathrates can only be adding to the situation in Siberia, even if just locally.
 

2250.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Exclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

 

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42 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I'm not sure if one is caused by the other, or if it's all just pointing in the same direction by horrible coincidence this year, but with methane concentrations 400 times above equilibrium, the release of clathrates can only be adding to the situation in Siberia, even if just locally.
 

2250.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Exclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

 

it's a disappointingly misleading article by the guardian. I posted a bit about it over on the sea ice forum and twitter, but the climate feedback site has reviewed it since then (more qualified than me) and given it a credibility rating of low. Here's their assessment

Jonathan-Watts_Guardian_methane-arctic-s
CLIMATEFEEDBACK.ORG

"This article’s claim that methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean are starting to be released, awakening a “sleeping giant”, cannot be...

 

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Here's the average October extent for the Russian Arctic seas, ESS, Laptev and Kara. October extent for 2020 in this region was 20% of the average from the last 10 years, and just 10% of the 1980s average.

RussianArcticOctober.thumb.png.27c4beddc9a81fd0abc017517fe8575d.png

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19 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

 

Issue I have with that model is that it seems to be based on ice drift and wind direction, no one really knows how long it will take for the Laptev hole to fill in. As the main ice pack is now forming an arm towards the coastal ice forming in the ESS and with the ice filling in on the Atlantic side then the open water in the middle should freeze over fairly quickly. Still the latest on record but thankfully likely to be sooner than I thought it would of been.

Also I accept its concerning in respect we are seeing more and more signs of how a warm summer is delaying refreeze but let's not think because the ice is late in forming does not mean it will melt out quickly next summer. I be hoping for quite a bit of high pressure this winter(not warm ridges but true Arctic highs) so we get compaction building up in the Siberian seas and hopefully end upp with thicker ice than we did this year. For all of the strongest PV last winter, it did leave the Siberian seas with quite thin ice.

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22 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Issue I have with that model is that it seems to be based on ice drift and wind direction, no one really knows how long it will take for the Laptev hole to fill in. As the main ice pack is now forming an arm towards the coastal ice forming in the ESS and with the ice filling in on the Atlantic side then the open water in the middle should freeze over fairly quickly. Still the latest on record but thankfully likely to be sooner than I thought it would of been.

Also I accept its concerning in respect we are seeing more and more signs of how a warm summer is delaying refreeze but let's not think because the ice is late in forming does not mean it will melt out quickly next summer. I be hoping for quite a bit of high pressure this winter(not warm ridges but true Arctic highs) so we get compaction building up in the Siberian seas and hopefully end upp with thicker ice than we did this year. For all of the strongest PV last winter, it did leave the Siberian seas with quite thin ice.

That's just how the guy displays the model output, there are way more parameters involved and it used the ECM data for drive it. 
But yeah, lots can happen between no and next summer, but we're certainly off to a poor start.

Latest PIOMAS is out, and 2020 is now lowest on record. Most of this comes from the CAB, Laptev and the ESS, all of which are lowest for Oct 31st.

AllPiomas.thumb.png.e0d4111c209627017db1bbec2df9168b.png piomas30day.thumb.png.7d9968f6a93b23bbd73cae6ff20cd901.png LapESS.thumb.png.6474e8f89a9500aff1dcb12d71a02c93.png

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Well the arms of ice that I mentioned in previous posts have now joined onto the coastal ice at long last so the door is fully closed to Atlantic and Pacific currents so that open water in the Laptev should fill in quite quickly. Possibly by the 7th or 8th November it should be virtually ice covered. Latest on record which tells its own storey. 

All eyes will be on the Chukchi sea and how quick that refreeze, the ice edge is further south this year compared to last so hopefully this area can freeze quicker than it has done. Cold winds are also forecast for the Kara sea so we may see more ice growth here. 

 

 

 

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With the rapid increases still ongoing (5 gains over 200k so far) it's easy to not notice other interesting things.

Nov3rdto9thNSIDC.thumb.png.e219c5bd34b00bb6caac39d6683b22ff.png

The Atlantic ice edge has pushed northward quite quickly, dropping the minimum distance to the N. Pole from 800km on Nov 1st to 710km yesterday

NP_Anim_Small.thumb.gif.212c272fad675ed04d4d3a8f06d514f3.gif

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2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

With the rapid increases still ongoing (5 gains over 200k so far) it's easy to not notice other interesting things.

Nov3rdto9thNSIDC.thumb.png.e219c5bd34b00bb6caac39d6683b22ff.png

The Atlantic ice edge has pushed northward quite quickly, dropping the minimum distance to the N. Pole from 800km on Nov 1st to 710km yesterday

NP_Anim_Small.thumb.gif.212c272fad675ed04d4d3a8f06d514f3.gif

BFTV - do you know what the lowest, minimum-distance has been?

Are we approaching some kind of record...?

Presumably we are for November, but I wondered if maybe for any time of the year.

The climate of Svalbard is irrevocably changed from what it was even 50 years ago.

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The atlantic edge is going to struggle grown southwards as the winds will favour more compaction/retreat so the Barants is going to remain largely ice free for a good while yet. 

Conversely, the Pacific side may refreeze quicker with constant cold winds forecast to blow there. The Laptev is almost filled in now so whilst extent will remain below average, at least the basin is finally filling up with ice. 

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8 minutes ago, Stravaiger said:

BFTV - do you know what the lowest, minimum-distance has been?

Are we approaching some kind of record...?

Presumably we are for November, but I wondered if maybe for any time of the year.

The climate of Svalbard is irrevocably changed from what it was even 50 years ago.

It's probably close to a record for November (will check more tomorrow), but we've gotten much closer in August and September this year and in previous years.
I've been working on an analysis related to this, creating a time series of distance from the N. Pole to open water, but haven't had much time for it recently. Below is an image I mapped out the distance for all previous minima every 5 degrees. The problem is that the closest distance can occur from August through to September, so a single day isn't ideal.
From the annual minima at least, the closest we've gotten was 350 km in 2012. Even this year got within 500 km of the N. Pole a few times in early September, just not on the actual day of the minimum.

IceEdgeMapAll.thumb.jpg.abedbc32debd1fa9397a1a7ddf655624.jpg

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