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22 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Area has now dropped below 2012, to lowest on record. Extent is just 63k above 2012.
The 3rd smallest October increase so far. The 2 years with less, are 2018 and 2019!

NSIDC_ChangeOct9.thumb.jpg.b634f1160a88932921dce518e1951580.jpg

Worrying how each of the last three years had quite slow regrowth into October. Hopefully that isn't a sign that the optimal freezing window is starting to shorten yet further.

Of course if you get a good PV winter up there, then it is recoverable, but eventually we are going to get unstuck with that with a more amplified jet up there.

Edited by kold weather
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Here are the images for today. I'm going to start updating these roughly twice per week from now on.   

Aaannnd, the same animation but for the whole month (a larger, better quality version is on the twitter page too)

As tempting as it may be, we need to keep politics out of the discussion here. They tend to result in bickering that quickly loses relevance to the thread topic, so there's a general ban on it across

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38 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Worrying how each of the last three years had quite slow regrowth into October. Hopefully that isn't a sign that the optimal freezing window is starting to shorten yet further.

Of course if you get a good PV winter up there, then it is recoverable, but eventually we are going to get unstuck with that with a more amplified jet up there.

2018 started slow because of a huge ridge at the end of September and into October on the Pacific side which bought warm winds from the south. I think most years would struggle to gain ice with that type of weather pattern. 

However last year and this year seems to be more down to warm SSTS, especially on the Siberian side. Beaufort is refreezing quicker this year but this is no surprise as ice loss was slow therefore SSTS are cooler. 

The worrying trend im seeing is how much slower and weaker the PV is at this time of year compared to the 90s even and no doubt lack of ice and warm SSTS is causing this. I think the anaomoly charts for September will show just how much above normal this September(and previous September's) has been.

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On 12/10/2020 at 08:23, Steve Murr said:

As of today we are at the lowest on record dipping 45k under the 2012 extent..

And its going to be a bit of a struggle to gain much in the way of extent with the current weather patterns of a very strong dipole with the Siberian side going to be a right old struggle to grow much in the way of extent. We even don't get any cold coming in the way frrom the Siberian landmass due to the off shore winds. 

As it happens, perhaps this t ype of weather pattern will be much better in a few months time as it will favour ice compaction on the Siberian side which was severely lacking last winter hence being a factor of such rapid ice loss in those areas. 

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Wow the PV is so weak for the time of year, hottest October in record perhaps? This is not even down to warm SSTS, it's down to persistent waveyness in the jet stream. 

And this is now going to impact on extent figures, 2020 is going to bound be a lonesome soon and things could start to get interesting. 

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1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

Wow the PV is so weak for the time of year, hottest October in record perhaps? This is not even down to warm SSTS, it's down to persistent waveyness in the jet stream. 

And this is now going to impact on extent figures, 2020 is going to bound be a lonesome soon and things could start to get interesting. 

As long as the PV doesn't strike back bigger and stronger than ever come late November!

Edited by Don
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12 minutes ago, Don said:

As long as the PV doesn't strike back bigger than stronger than ever come late November!

On a snow enthusiasts POV then a strong PV during Autumn and maybe first part of winter is fine because you start to build up proper cold then so if the PV breaks down then you get proper cold air at lower latitudes, just like you used to in the good old days. 

These days during Autumn, we can't even get upper air temperatures of - 20 during the first part of October. I do honestly believe the time when you get proper cold and snow will be a thing of the past quite soon especially if virtually all the summer ice melts away rapidly as cold air will struggle to form. What we seen in September this year over Siberia could be a sign of things to come with warm ridges meaning little PPN and below average snow cover and warm SSTS means cold air struggling to form. 

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10 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

On a snow enthusiasts POV then a strong PV during Autumn and maybe first part of winter is fine because you start to build up proper cold then so if the PV breaks down then you get proper cold air at lower latitudes, just like you used to in the good old days. 

These days during Autumn, we can't even get upper air temperatures of - 20 during the first part of October. I do honestly believe the time when you get proper cold and snow will be a thing of the past quite soon especially if virtually all the summer ice melts away rapidly as cold air will struggle to form. What we seen in September this year over Siberia could be a sign of things to come with warm ridges meaning little PPN and below average snow cover and warm SSTS means cold air struggling to form. 

That's a depressing indictment of our climate today and nowt we can do about it now!

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A comparison of the first 13 days of surface air temperature anomalies across the Arctic. The lack of -ve anomalies and the increasingly widespread +10C anomalies of the last 5 years or so is quite something. 

AnimationOct1_13.thumb.gif.4658057bd7f56f420a4f1d49154e3e14.gif

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19 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

A comparison of the first 13 days of surface air temperature anomalies across the Arctic. The lack of -ve anomalies and the increasingly widespread +10C anomalies of the last 5 years or so is quite something. 

AnimationOct1_13.thumb.gif.4658057bd7f56f420a4f1d49154e3e14.gif

If a chart that sums things up then that is it. 

Small extent lost today, if it was not for last years slow refreeze then 2020 would be on its own but I do think things could turn ugly now extent wise because the weather is not going to be helpful for much refreeze. Not much real cold air at all up there, we barely getting upper air temperatures of -12 at the moment! 

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6 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

If a chart that sums things up then that is it. 

Small extent lost today, if it was not for last years slow refreeze then 2020 would be on its own but I do think things could turn ugly now extent wise because the weather is not going to be helpful for much refreeze. Not much real cold air at all up there, we barely getting upper air temperatures of -12 at the moment! 

Happy days! 🙁

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4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Ice change yesterday - Loss of 10k !!! almost unheard of losing ice in H2 of October..

That's really not good is it?!  Makes you wonder if we get any northerlies this winter, how feeble will they be?!

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6 minutes ago, Don said:

That's really not good is it?!  Makes you wonder if we get any northerlies this winter, how feeble will they be?!

Ice losses I think may of happened in 2016 in October or was it November but I think its more a lack of freeze up and strong compacting winds which caused the decrease. SSTS in the Laptev are very high but the current set up is helping them to cool down in the Kara sea although I doubt we will see much freeze up here as the cold air is not all that strong. 

As for your question on northerlies then it's just depends on duraction but we can't seem to sustain a northerly these days in anycase but with SSTS only a degree roughly above normal, then I don't think a northerly will be any weaker really. 

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Latest 5 day slow animation. Beaufort is doing quite well, close to recent decadal averages. Everywhere else is really struggling to add new ice. This is reflected in the JAXA/ADS extent, now lowest on record by 276k.

AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.73bfbb7f5391c45f86b4d3539c82875c.gif

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1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Latest 5 day slow animation. Beaufort is doing quite well, close to recent decadal averages. Everywhere else is really struggling to add new ice. This is reflected in the JAXA/ADS extent, now lowest on record by 276k.

AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.73bfbb7f5391c45f86b4d3539c82875c.gif

Unless the arm of ice reaches the Siberian Islands and an arm of  ice develops in the ESS, the Laptev will NOT freeze over, I'm starting to get more confident we will have open water in the Laptev even in the last week of November which would be unprecedented and unheard of. 

Expect more of this in the coming years and eventually the basin will not completely fill up with ice even in winter. Times are changing right before our eyes here, it's interesting but alarming also. 

 

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Yes I recall that the sea ice extent dropped slightly during a warm episode in November 2016.  There was also a stall in the sea ice increases in December 2010 when we had part of the polar vortex settle over Britain while warm air headed into the Canadian Arctic.  So it's unusual but not unprecedented to get a slowdown or slight ice loss this late in the season.  However, the current lack of refreeze to the north of Eurasia is certainly shattering records.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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I put together a short thread on twitter, which I'll link to below.
Basically, there was a paper published during the summer by Polyakov et al that built on previous studies and suggests that Atlantification of the Eurasian seas has increased in recent years. It has occurred because as sea ice is reduced wind and tidal movements are increasingly effective at allowing the warmer and saltier Atlantic waters to mix with the cooler, fresher surface water cap, creating a feedback that slows ice formation and accelerates melt.
There is also the risk of a tipping point being reached, whereby the sea transitions to a new state (much like what happened to the Barents Sea) where sea ice formation is massively impeded, even in mid winter.

The length of time that the Siberian seas have had open water this year, and the continuing open water state, may allow for an acceleration of the Atlantification process, especially if a few large winter storms get the chance to churn up the water. This increases the risk of pushing the Kara or Laptev seas beyond Polyakov's tipping point.

 

 

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4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I put together a short thread on twitter, which I'll link to below.
Basically, there was a paper published during the summer by Polyakov et al that built on previous studies and suggests that Atlantification of the Eurasian seas has increased in recent years. It has occurred because as sea ice is reduced wind and tidal movements are increasingly effective at allowing the warmer and saltier Atlantic waters to mix with the cooler, fresher surface water cap, creating a feedback that slows ice formation and accelerates melt.
There is also the risk of a tipping point being reached, whereby the sea transitions to a new state (much like what happened to the Barents Sea) where sea ice formation is massively impeded, even in mid winter.

The length of time that the Siberian seas have had open water this year, and the continuing open water state, may allow for an acceleration of the Atlantification process, especially if a few large winter storms get the chance to churn up the water. This increases the risk of pushing the Kara or Laptev seas beyond Polyakov's tipping point.

 

 

'Wonderful' isn't it...

It's like being on ship accelerating  towards a huge (ironically obviously) iceberg. You give warnings, you point out its getting closer and closer and that a change of direction is needed. People accuse you of lying, of wanting to spoil the party, of being a scaremonger - some even deny there is an iceberg.

You resign yourself to the reality that the complacent and careless are going to take you down with them - indeed you'll probably be shouted at by said people for not doing anything to help them as you sink under the waves...

Edited by Devonian
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2 hours ago, Devonian said:

First noticeable sea ice along the Siberian coast...And it's amazing to be posting such an observation in late October!

Also amazing is I don't think we had a century increase so far this refreeze season! SSTS are having a massive impact here. 

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The gap to other years continues to grow, lowest on record now by 526,000 km².

1,740,000 km² below the last 10 years average
3,431,000 km² below the 81-10 average
3,974,000 km² below the 1980s average

Oct22ndNSIDC.thumb.jpg.f9fd40cca944f87fc38ba2d1e0447dd8.jpg

If we don't see a huge increase in growth, well over 100k/day, soon, we will end up lowest on record by close to a million km² early next week.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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41 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The gap to other years continues to grow, lowest on record now by 526,000 km².

1,740,000 km² below the last 10 years average
3,431,000 km² below the 81-10 average
3,974,000 km² below the 1980s average

Oct22ndNSIDC.thumb.jpg.f9fd40cca944f87fc38ba2d1e0447dd8.jpg

If we don't see a huge increase in growth, well over 100k/day, soon, we will end up lowest on record by close to a million km² early next week.

I think I've asked something like this before... but if there is a mass of water to cool down (as there is in eg the East Siberian Sea) will it be cooled more if it's still and the ice forms as frazel or if it's turbulent and you get pancakes that freeze together (if that's how it will work)? Put another way, could a layer of ice trap more heat below depending on how it was formed?

It looks to be well below freezing in the area (mins about -8 around the New Siberian Islands) might it almost flash freeze?

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