Arctic Refreeze Season: 2020/21

[cheeky_monkey]

5 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's a quick animation highlighting the change in October temperatures in the eastern Arctic from 1991 to 2020.

just a quick question what is significant about 1991? why not 1979 which seems to be the standard benchmark?

[BornFromTheVoid]

5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

just a quick question what is significant about 1991? why not 1979 which seems to be the standard benchmark?

Nothing significant about it, I just chose 30 years because it's the standard climatology timeframe and a short enough to make the animation easy and small. The seasonal composites go back to 1948, and other data sets do the whole 20th century.
I might do a longer term one another day.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Slow sea ice growth animation from November 6th to 13th

[Thundery wintry showers]

So the Arctic sea ice has grown substantially to the north of Eurasia generally but I see that, like in 2012 and 2016, it is really struggling to make any inroads into the Barents and Kara seas.  Hourly temperature readings at Vize Island in the Kara Sea have just reached freezing point and Svalbard has been above 8C recently.  The latest runs from the ECMWF are pointing to colder weather in the Russian Arctic in about a week's time, which may help the refreeze there, but turning much warmer over the Chukchi Sea area which could see a much below average rate of refreeze coming up.

[Geordiesnow]

9 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

So the Arctic sea ice has grown substantially to the north of Eurasia generally but I see that, like in 2012 and 2016, it is really struggling to make any inroads into the Barents and Kara seas.  Hourly temperature readings at Vize Island in the Kara Sea have just reached freezing point and Svalbard has been above 8C recently.  The latest runs from the ECMWF are pointing to colder weather in the Russian Arctic in about a week's time, which may help the refreeze there, but turning much warmer over the Chukchi Sea area which could see a much below average rate of refreeze coming up.

Weather patterns in the basin has been quite stormy with lows coming from the Atlantic and then intensifying as they head into the basin with higher pressure over Russia hence strong southerly winds and struggling ice growth. The Kara Sea has been cold but the pattern has changed to much warmer conditions hence ice growth will be limited here. 

The Chukchi has seen colder northerly winds but even here the weather pattern is set to change as you mentioned. We are probably going to rely on ice growth outside the basin to carry on with ice extent growth so we are likely to remain near record lows. 

Also interesting how slow the last of the open water in the Laptev is filling in, getting a BOE will eventually mean the basin will not fully grow ice in the winter months, a scary thought. 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Geordiesnow

[BornFromTheVoid]

The daily NSIDC extent remains 2nd lowest on record to the 18th, 594,000 km² above the lowest year, 2016. The last 5 days have seen substantial gains in Hudson Bay balanced by losses in the Kara sea, causing the centred 5 day mean increase to drop below average.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

A week of NSIDC extent changes
Weekly change is +361,000 km² (81-10 avg: 456,000 km²)
Started 2nd lowest, finished 2nd lowest.
Largest gains in Hudson Bay followed by the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin and Chukchi Seas, and a large loss in the Kara Sea.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the slow sea ice concentration animation for the last week.

Regionally, big gains in Hudson Bay and along the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin, slight losses in Chukchi and big losses in the Kara Sea.

[reef]

5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the slow sea ice concentration animation for the last week.

Regionally, big gains in Hudson Bay and along the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin, slight losses in Chukchi and big losses in the Kara Sea.

I wouldn't be surprised if we make further losses in the Barents and Chukchi seas over the next week. Both have strong winds pushing the ice edge in the wrong direction over the next 7 days. It looks particularly dire for Barents though, a quick browse of the 12z GFS shows barely -10C 850hPa air there with westerly winds for almost the entire run.

To be honest, there's just not much in the way of cold around at all. At least away from the usual spots of Greenland and Northern Siberia.

[Geordiesnow]

5 hours ago, reef said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we make further losses in the Barents and Chukchi seas over the next week. Both have strong winds pushing the ice edge in the wrong direction over the next 7 days. It looks particularly dire for Barents though, a quick browse of the 12z GFS shows barely -10C 850hPa air there with westerly winds for almost the entire run.

To be honest, there's just not much in the way of cold around at all. At least away from the usual spots of Greenland and Northern Siberia.

Which seems to be a common modern day pattern with large swathes of above average temperatures across western Russia and Scandinavia. 

The Chukchi may try to freeze over as the winds try and turn more northerly but there is going to be barely any refreeze over the Barants and Kara seas especially the latter. 

[Daniel*]

6 hours ago, reef said:

To be honest, there's just not much in the way of cold around at all. At least away from the usual spots of Greenland and Northern Siberia.

Most of Canada has been very cold no wonder CAA froze very rapidly.

[Geordiesnow]

23 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Most of Canada has been very cold no wonder CAA froze very rapidly.

It's the only area that seems to get constant cold anaomolies and no doubt this is linked to Scandinavia and western Russia seeing well above average temperature anaomolies persistently. Then that "warmth" heads into the Arctic basin. 

[Crepuscular Ray]

http://www.independent.co.uk//img/shortcut-icons/icon-192x192.png Growing ‘heat blob’ from Atlantic driving sea ice loss in Arctic, study says

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Amount of ocean heat delivered to the Arctic has increased markedly since 2001, according to research

I'm not entirely sure about hot salty water sinking beneath cold salty water, but that's possibly the Independent's take on it rather than what the original paper actually said. The Independent does not really get science.

[Mark Parsons]

On 23/11/2020 at 18:48, Crepuscular Ray said:

http://www.independent.co.uk//img/shortcut-icons/icon-192x192.png Growing ‘heat blob’ from Atlantic driving sea ice loss in Arctic, study says

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Amount of ocean heat delivered to the Arctic has increased markedly since 2001, according to research

I'm not entirely sure about hot salty water sinking beneath cold salty water, but that's possibly the Independent's take on it rather than what the original paper actually said. The Independent does not really get science.

Warm salty water sinking underneath colder less saline water is correct. Without looking again i dont recall "hot water" being mentioned? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

On 23/11/2020 at 18:48, Crepuscular Ray said:

http://www.independent.co.uk//img/shortcut-icons/icon-192x192.png Growing ‘heat blob’ from Atlantic driving sea ice loss in Arctic, study says

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Amount of ocean heat delivered to the Arctic has increased markedly since 2001, according to research

I'm not entirely sure about hot salty water sinking beneath cold salty water, but that's possibly the Independent's take on it rather than what the original paper actually said. The Independent does not really get science.

It sinks below the relatively cool and fresh surface waters, which maintains the Arctic halocline. Several papers have now noted that these Atlantic waters are getting ever closer to the surface along the Siberian Seas, partially because the reduced sea ice cover allows the winds and tides to more effectively mix things up

[BornFromTheVoid]

Russian Arctic sea's have flatlined in the last 10 days and are back below 2012. Without a significant acceleration in growth, 2020 will be back to the lowest values in a week.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I note that Vize Island up in the Russian Arctic (where the 61-90 average for November is around -20C) has been hovering at -2 to -3C for most of the past week:

http://img.meteogroup.com/fileadmin/images/weatherpro/apple-touch-icon.png Weather reports from Ostrov Vize WMO (20069)

WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK

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A graphical and tabular preparation of weather observations of last week by the WMO weather station from Ostrov Vize...

That won't be helping the refreeze up there!

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Yes, I note that Vize Island up in the Russian Arctic (where the 61-90 average for November is around -20C) has been hovering at -2 to -3C for most of the past week:

http://img.meteogroup.com/fileadmin/images/weatherpro/apple-touch-icon.png Weather reports from Ostrov Vize WMO (20069)

WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK

---

A graphical and tabular preparation of weather observations of last week by the WMO weather station from Ostrov Vize...

That won't be helping the refreeze up there!

Yep the Kara sea area for most of November has been quite warm and with open water and southerly winds it means very high temperatures. No real signs in the forecast this will change  so it could be one of those years where the Kara sea ice struggles to gain extent during winter. 

The Chukchi sea has been struggling too but perhaps colder winds will hit here soon enough, not fully convincing how much willl freeze but we should see some hopefully. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few bits to share.
Weekly concentration animation up to the 28th

Weekly extent graph and animation up to the 28th.

Finally, a focus on the Kara Sea, showing how it has waxed and waned over the last 5 weeks or so.

[BornFromTheVoid]

We enter December as 2nd lowest on record, slightly above 2016

However, the main reason we're above 2016 is due to Hudson Bay. We are currently 15th highest, while 2016 was 2nd lowest (for November 30th), a difference of over half a million km2.

Conversely, we are once again lowest on record for the Russian Arctic Sea's and the Central Arctic

 

 

[Geordiesnow]

Yep the Kara sea has actually got less ice now than at the start of November, due to winds keep on coming in from the south. Its been very warm in this region and sea ice will struggle to grow and there is no real change in the forecast. You need too see cold air coming in from the landmass too see true growth. 

Its worrying too see lower concentrations as this means the ice is fractured and no doubt thin because the Laptev was that slow to refreeze and I don't think it has barely thickened up. Still time to change but its not looking promising. 

Chukchi sea despite having quite cold conditions is struggling to freeze over, we all know one year, the Bering Stright will not freeze over at all, don't think it will be this year but we did come close in 2018/2019. Its one to watch though. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warmest Autumn in the Siberian Arctic,

 

Meanwhile, volume remains 2nd lowest on record, a little ahead of 2016.

Most of 2020s advantage over 2016 comes from Hudson Bay and the Greenland Sea. Most other areas are quite close, or 2020 is slightly below.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A good chance that this will be the first year with an average anomaly of over 1.5 million km2

[BornFromTheVoid]

Extent extent remains 2nd lowest on record up to December 9th, 217k above 2016. However, 2016 gained 271k on the 10th, so without a substantial increase on tomorrows update, 2020 will once again be lowest on record overall.

The Russian Sea along to Barents Sea are still lowest on record, however.

 

[Daniel*]

55 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Kara sea look set to get a little bit of cold air over it in the next few days before being cut by yet another low pressure system so I imagine ice growth will still be very slow here. 

Will the Chukchi growth slowdown with that Arctic high blowing less cold air here, one to watch but the Bering Stright does look poised to close over at long last. Still carrying on the trend though of later and later growth mind. 

Am I missing something? I would expect growth to be rapid it’s not a brief flirtation. Should freeze over completely. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Daniel*