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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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26 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I'm probably the odd one out here then. My lifetime experience is that the hardest and best cold comes in Jan/Feb - and while Feb has been a poor month in recent years many of my most memorable snow moments are in the second half of winter. The first half, at least for the far south, is often just not cold enough in terms of ground and sea temps. Modifies everything - turns it wet.

If we are hoping for something special I'd go for anything in the Feb 86, Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 96, Jan 10 sort of bracket. Only Dec 2010 is worth a look in for early cold....though I do remember Dec 81 in Glasgow as an 11 year old as the beginning of a bitterly cold winter. Diesel in the buses froze that year - and I couldnt get home from school one day! Nearly froze to death......

Dec 81 was awesome down here in North Somerset, over a foot of level snow at sea level, snow drifts up the back door of the house to the point we couldn't open it, never seen a winter like it since though & with global warming I doubt I ever will again. 

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Agree with the above. A front loaded winter is preferable to a back loaded one, just for the sheer point that the days are at their shortest. 

It's like in summer, nothing feels more intense than solstice heat IMO.

Ever thought that the sun ‘feels’ hotter these days?  
I’m only worried about January re the La Nina....Mild to me.  But could be early fireworks! 
 

BFTP

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions by NOAA.

 

New ENSO update from BOM website, models like ECMWF,JMA and Meteo France still showing low end modarete event, NOAA,NASA,UKMO and BOM on the other hand would indicate strong Nina, ONI for OND looking like between -1.1 to -1.5, close to 2007 or 2010 progression then 1995.
https://twitter.com/JuliusSubovic/status/1310836029625073664 [thanks for juli for showing the graphic]

The difference between autumn of 2007 and 2010 is the QBO. in 2007 negative, in 2010 positve. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

EjEGTJuWAAAVY2T.jpg

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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2 hours ago, MP-R said:

We forget of course that the best type of winter is a centrally loaded one. Anytime between Dec 21st and Feb 10th to make the most of shorter daylight in late Dec and January and a colder continent January and early Feb. Feb/Mar 2018 a month earlier would’ve been perfect. The further into Feb we go, I’m personally craving spring no matter what the winter has done beforehand.

I agree a centrally loaded winter would be best.  1984/85 a classic example with deep cold arriving early in the New Year.  Although it did relent later in the month, it returned after the first week of February.

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Just now, Earthshine said:

Wouldn't mind a repeat of February 1998/2019 this winter!  Really was a fantastic spell of weather.  Maybe first 20C in January this time... 😅

I hope so. That would be a dream come true. Also to get 20°C in December would be excellent.

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Just now, Thundershine said:

I hope so. That would be a dream come true. Also to get 20°C in December would be excellent.

Wasn't far off last year, think it got to 18.7C in Scotland last December?  Warmer than most of their summers aha.

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5 hours ago, Thundershine said:

I hope so. That would be a dream come true. Also to get 20°C in December would be excellent.

Yeah a bloody nightmare of a dream!! 

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5 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Wouldn't mind a repeat of February 1998/2019 this winter!  Really was a fantastic spell of weather.  Maybe first 20C in January this time... 😅

Wouldn't mind a repeat of February 1st 2019 this winter! 😉

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7 hours ago, Catacol said:

I'm probably the odd one out here then. My lifetime experience is that the hardest and best cold comes in Jan/Feb - and while Feb has been a poor month in recent years many of my most memorable snow moments are in the second half of winter. The first half, at least for the far south, is often just not cold enough in terms of ground and sea temps. Modifies everything - turns it wet.

If we are hoping for something special I'd go for anything in the Feb 86, Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 96, Jan 10 sort of bracket. Only Dec 2010 is worth a look in for early cold....though I do remember Dec 81 in Glasgow as an 11 year old as the beginning of a bitterly cold winter. Diesel in the buses froze that year - and I couldnt get home from school one day! Nearly froze to death......

I think this is certainly true in southern central England, it is really difficult to get snow here in December, the month as a whole was freezing in 2010 but we only got snow here about 20th.  Much more likely in Jan or Feb when the easterlies if we can get them have teeth.  Not my mind up about prospects for this winter yet, conflicting signals, we will see...

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6 hours ago, Thundershine said:

I hope so. That would be a dream come true. Also to get -20°C in December would be excellent.

Sorry hope you don’t mind, I had to adjust your post, now that’s much better 🤪 the thought of 20c in December/January makes me want to throw up 🤮 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think this is certainly true in southern central England, it is really difficult to get snow here in December, the month as a whole was freezing in 2010 but we only got snow here about 20th.  Much more likely in Jan or Feb when the easterlies if we can get them have teeth.  Not my mind up about prospects for this winter yet, conflicting signals, we will see...

Didn't you get any snow on the 18th?

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I said about didn’t I?  😀

Yes it probably was the 18th if I remember correctly!

Yes, sorry for sounding pedantic! 😆

I said the 18th as much of the south had lots of snow that day.  Earlier in the month, parts of the south east had lots of snow (like the north), but not so much further west.

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6 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Wouldn't mind a repeat of February 1998/2019 this winter!  Really was a fantastic spell of weather.  Maybe first 20C in January this time... 😅

If that were to happen my interest in weather would completely disappear.

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16 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions by NOAA.

 

New ENSO update from BOM website, models like ECMWF,JMA and Meteo France still showing low end modarete event, NOAA,NASA,UKMO and BOM on the other hand would indicate strong Nina, ONI for OND looking like between -1.1 to -1.5, close to 2007 or 2010 progression then 1995.
https://twitter.com/JuliusSubovic/status/1310836029625073664 [thanks for juli for showing the graphic]

The difference between autumn of 2007 and 2010 is the QBO. in 2007 negative, in 2010 positve. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

EjEGTJuWAAAVY2T.jpg

Let's hope ECMWF, JMA and Meteofrance are correct!

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16 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Wasn't far off last year, think it got to 18.7C in Scotland last December?  Warmer than most of their summers aha.

Hurray for climate change! On the one hand there's the worldwide ecological catastrophe, but on the other we could get a very mild January. :oldsmile:

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4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Hurray for climate change! On the one hand there's the worldwide ecological catastrophe, but on the other we could get a very mild January. :oldsmile:

Yes it's difficult to believe people are actually wishing for this isn't it?!

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1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

Yes it's difficult to believe people are actually wishing for this isn't it?!

I enjoy warm weather.  I'm not a bad person for wanting warmer weather.  I fully recognise that climate change is a real threat to humanity.  I don't want the climate to warm but I also enjoy warm weather - the two aren't mutually exclusive.  I don't particularly appreciate being made to feel like a terrible human being for saying I enjoy sunny and warm spells of weather.  I'm a bit fed up of people on this forum jumping on others when they say what weather they prefer - and that goes for both warm and cold lovers.  I've heard warm fans attacking cold fans saying "what about thousands that die due to cold weather illnesses" - yes it is tragic, nobody wants people to die.  However you can also enjoy cold weather.  Being a fan of a certain type of weather does not mean you automatically don't care about climate change, it's utterly ridiculous.  

The weather community is wonderful but can also be incredibly toxic at times.

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14 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

I enjoy warm weather.  I'm not a bad person for wanting warmer weather.  I fully recognise that climate change is a real threat to humanity.  I don't want the climate to warm but I also enjoy warm weather - the two aren't mutually exclusive.  I don't particularly appreciate being made to feel like a terrible human being for saying I enjoy sunny and warm spells of weather.  I'm a bit fed up of people on this forum jumping on others when they say what weather they prefer - and that goes for both warm and cold lovers.  I've heard warm fans attacking cold fans saying "what about thousands that die due to cold weather illnesses" - yes it is tragic, nobody wants people to die.  However you can also enjoy cold weather.  Being a fan of a certain type of weather does not mean you automatically don't care about climate change, it's utterly ridiculous.  

The weather community is wonderful but can also be incredibly toxic at times.

There is a big difference between wishing for warmth and wishing for unseasonal warmth caused by climate change.

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14 minutes ago, Thebeastfromtheeast said:

There is a big difference between wishing for warmth and wishing for unseasonal warmth caused by climate change.

No there isn’t. Any warmth in winter is unseasonal in this country. It’s happened before and will happen again.

As has been said, it’s absolutely possible to recognise climate change while also enjoying the weather it produces. Not everything resultant from climate change is a catastrophe...

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51 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Not everything resultant from climate change is a catastrophe...

But wishing 'a dream come true 20c in January' !?! certainly would be a beacon to the looming catastrophe just around the corner...yes we've had heady maximums (and minimums) before which have occasionally sprung up in our winters but on top of what we've experienced over the last 6 or 7 winters is the last thing I'll be wishing for.

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55 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

But wishing 'a dream come true 20c in January' !?! certainly would be a beacon to the looming catastrophe just around the corner...yes we've had heady maximums (and minimums) before which have occasionally sprung up in our winters but on top of what we've experienced over the last 6 or 7 winters is the last thing I'll be wishing for.

Never said I’d be wishing for it, I’m a coldie in winter, but I’d enjoy it if it happened. Given the synoptic that would be necessary, it would probably only last a day!

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