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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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The atmosphere was fully coupled with La Nina this year if we take in to account summer weather in Europe. This was the wettest summer here since 1998 and 2010 - those were also forming Ninas in spring those years. I have made a very good summer forecast locally based on this as monthly blends were exactly how the regime behaved in May,June and July, things have started to be complicated exactly in August where there was a heatwave in central Europe that lasted for nearly 3 weeks - not seen in analog blend which suggested euro trough. This is probably because of +AAM spike. This AAM spike in autumn also put La Nina off track so no early season cold shot in Europe but Euro high instead. This will be 1st La Nina that will not feature any snow here in November(Slovakia)  out of last 10! crazy if you thing this will be 1st no November snow La Nina - all 2017,2016,2011,2010,2008,2007,2005,1998,1998,1995 featured at least one if not multiple cold shots in to continental Europe in November yet this one is such an exception.

If you want to know my opinion I either dont understand AAM/GSDM at all or think its overrated, why? Because there were a good few of those last 10 La ninas that had similar MJO progress in autumn yet produced Europe cold shots, so presuming +AAM is not an exception this year and also featured in some past 10 autumn Ninas but didn't stand in the way of cold shots in November.

What I do think its more relevant is - Haddley Cell poleward expansion and cooling upper levels of atmosphere to balance out record warm troposphere. Already if you look at polar profile this autumn its nearly a continuation of last winter while we keep breaking global temperature records at surface level. These two Haddley Cell + stratosphere are easily outweighing what would you call typical atmosphere behavior driven by Pacific Ocean - ENSO. Unfortunately these effects are enhanced in boreal winter which is even worse for those of cold persuasion. 

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11 hours ago, Alexis said:

Other than 2010 I can't recall a single winter that got going before Christmas Day to be honest! 

I didn't meant full blown winter, just a week long cold spell would be enough. Of course UK is almost always mild but what's happenning over the continent from middle of November to middle of December gives plenty of clues for the upcoming winter.

 

11 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

I'm not 100% but I'm pretty sure 1962 had a mild November as well. No, I'm not saying this will be a 1963 winter but it doesn't necessarily follow that you need a cold November to get a cold winter. 

Average November here in Central Europe with last ten days cold and wintry. The month ended with cold blast from NE.

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59 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I didn't meant full blown winter, just a week long cold spell would be enough. Of course UK is almost always mild but what's happenning over the continent from middle of November to middle of December gives plenty of clues for the upcoming winter.

 

Average November here in Central Europe with last ten days cold and wintry. The month ended with cold blast from NE.

Likewise there is normally a cold spell in the UK before Christmas too. Not always snowy and sometimes short, but at least cold. Even November 2015 turned chilly for 4-5 days lol!

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter:

1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or back loaded' (Usually ends up unloaded) - care of General Cluster.

2. November: 'I'd rather get these charts out the way now before winter' (Usually continues in the same vain).

3. December (Xmas period or the run up to): 'Let's see what the New Year brings' (Continues in the same vain if not milder).

4. January mid-month: 'We need to see something sooner in terms of cold rather than later as the sun will begin to strengthen into February' (Desperation starting to creep in).

5. February: 'At least we've still got the chance of our best crack at winter' (i.e. March particularly the 1st half) which has been somewhat more reliable than most January's or February's.

6. March: 'Oh well! I reckon next winter will be the 'one'! (We know it won't be).

7. April: 'For Gods sake why can't we have these synoptics/easterlies in Winter' (Just watch the pattern change, happens most years).

Something like that guys and gals...😉

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6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter:

1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or back loaded' (Usually ends up unloaded) - care of General Cluster.

2. November: 'I'd rather get these charts out the way now before winter' (Usually continues in the same vain).

3. December (Xmas period or the run up to): 'Let's see what the New Year brings' (Continues in the same vain if not milder).

4. January mid-month: 'We need to see something sooner in terms of cold rather than later as the sun will begin to strengthen into February' (Desperation starting to creep in).

5. February: 'At least we've still got the chance of our best crack at winter' (i.e. March particularly the 1st half) which has been somewhat more reliable than most January's or February's.

6. March: 'Oh well! I reckon next winter will be the 'one'! (We know it won't be).

7. April: 'For Gods sake why can't we have these synoptics/easterlies in Winter' (Just watch the pattern change, happens most years).

Something like that guys and gals...😉

Add to that the hanging on every run of the models and the wailing and gnashing of teeth when the day 10 boom chart has disappeared the following day! 😂 All good fun.

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11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter:

1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or back loaded' (Usually ends up unloaded) - care of General Cluster.

2. November: 'I'd rather get these charts out the way now before winter' (Usually continues in the same vain).

3. December (Xmas period or the run up to): 'Let's see what the New Year brings' (Continues in the same vain if not milder).

4. January mid-month: 'We need to see something sooner in terms of cold rather than later as the sun will begin to strengthen into February' (Desperation starting to creep in).

5. February: 'At least we've still got the chance of our best crack at winter' (i.e. March particularly the 1st half) which has been somewhat more reliable than most January's or February's.

6. March: 'Oh well! I reckon next winter will be the 'one'! (We know it won't be).

7. April: 'For Gods sake why can't we have these synoptics/easterlies in Winter' (Just watch the pattern change, happens most years).

Something like that guys and gals...😉

Not forgetting those words and phrases that should result in an instant ban!

"Close but no cigar"

"It's got potential"

"More runs needed"

"At this juncture"

"Scuppered by a shortwave"

"Sceuro, Griceland, Scrussion..." 😫

"Snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas"

"It's a long way to back cold from there"

"There will be missing flight data, it's Christmas"

"There will be a chance of snaw"

"It's looking toasty up there" (posted under a T+384 strat chart)

"No change to the 06z so far" (whilst posting under a T+3 chart...yawn)

"It's game over" (posted in November before winter has even started)

"Peturbation xx" has it nailed

"Will it snow in Carlisle"

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter:

1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or back loaded' (Usually ends up unloaded) - care of General Cluster.

2. November: 'I'd rather get these charts out the way now before winter' (Usually continues in the same vain).

3. December (Xmas period or the run up to): 'Let's see what the New Year brings' (Continues in the same vain if not milder).

4. January mid-month: 'We need to see something sooner in terms of cold rather than later as the sun will begin to strengthen into February' (Desperation starting to creep in).

5. February: 'At least we've still got the chance of our best crack at winter' (i.e. March particularly the 1st half) which has been somewhat more reliable than most January's or February's.

6. March: 'Oh well! I reckon next winter will be the 'one'! (We know it won't be).

7. April: 'For Gods sake why can't we have these synoptics/easterlies in Winter' (Just watch the pattern change, happens most years).

Something like that guys and gals...😉

I'll add to that last comment, also say this in May-July...before the westerlies come back. 

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Period between 2013-2021 gives 1987-1995 a good run for its money in terms of lack of cool months in Europe. I can only think of Jan2017 and Feb2018 as months that can be called wintry, in the 87-95 period there was Feb91 but there were some ridiculously cool Novembers 

yocODGiFN6.png

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8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

We've basically seen 2.5 phases so far. 

Since May we have seen a largely -AAM regime however AAM has spiked during August and November within that. This is fairly normal as things are rarely uniform and we will see disruption early in the event especially. 

Thanks.  -AAM at our latitudes is what we want then for the upcoming winter to hold interest. However,  I feel that there will be other factors at play. What we primarily need is something to implode the increasingly strong polar vortex, be it consistent wave activity, heat flux. At least then we have opportunities for cold. Unless this happens,  then I think any high latitude blocking will probably just manifest itself as a mid-latitude belt of high pressure at  best.

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20 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Not forgetting those words and phrases that should result in an instant ban!

"Close but no cigar"

"It's got potential"

"More runs needed"

"At this juncture"

"Scuppered by a shortwave"

"Sceuro, Griceland, Scrussion..." 😫

"Snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas"

"It's a long way to back cold from there"

"There will be missing flight data, it's Christmas"

"There will be a chance of snaw"

"It's looking toasty up there" (posted under a T+384 strat chart)

"No change to the 06z so far" (whilst posting under a T+3 chart...yawn)

"It's game over" (posted in November before winter has even started)

"Peturbation xx" has it nailed

"Will it snow in Carlisle"

November: "Euro high is good configuration to weaken polar vortex. Then 1 month down the line: "It would be good for heights to drop in Europe to reset the pattern".

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The CFS 9 monthly runs for the 12z run have consistently churned out the coldest on average runs and I thought I'd share another good run for you, maybe not quite as exciting as the previous one I showed you but non the less another cold one on average

Dec 1st

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We begin the month under an area of high pressure and quite a chilly high at that with fog and frost by night and clear sunny but quite cold days. A typical inversion cold setup with those milder uppers and cold air on the surface but look what is lurking to our east

Dec 2nd

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On the 2nd we have an attempt to get the winds into the east and those colder temperatures are now advancing westwards across Europe but on their present course they look like they are going to miss us

Dec 3rd

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Finally we tap into some of this colder air by the 3rd, no doubt brining a risk of wintry showers to the S and E in particular but likely not amounting to too much

Dec 4th

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Further wintry weather on the 4th but probably more so due to more widespread cold. Dry and frosty in the N under the high pressure

Dec 5th

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High pressure slips southwards killing off the wintry showers but giving all of us a cold and frosty spell with cold air sat over the UK but look what is lurking up to the north

Dec 6th

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An attempt to get an Arctic blast is showing up here on the 6th. Still left over cold from the earlier easterly spell but much colder air waiting up to the north

Dec 7th

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That area of high pressure that kept the earlier cold in place is now our big enemy here as it is stalling the progress of the Arctic northerly. It needs to move out west to allow a full on Arctic plunge

Dec 8th

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Grrrrrr. That high pressure is slipping down into Europe instead so it looks like this attempt to get an Arctic northerly is doomed to failure. Low pressure is also spinning itself up in the Atlantic and a SW wind is starting to look more likely

Dec 9th

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This is knife edge scenario. We have Greenland high and Scandi Low vs Euro high and Azores low. Which one is going to win out. Knowing the UK weather the annoying Azores low and Euro high will win out but it may go the other way on this run.

Dec 10th

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Scandi Low has moved away eastwards and Greenland high has weakened by the 10th so as expected the mild side of the battle has won AS USUAL. We enter the mildest stage of December 2020 on this current CFS 12z run

Dec 11th

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Very mild air has pushed up all the way from the Canary Islands and we are no doubt seeing double digit temperatures both by day and night, not very winter like at all. A very December 2015 setup showing on this chart. Guess that is curtains for cold now seeing that chart but fear not, this mild is very short lived

Dec 12th

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Still mild here on the 12th of December but very likely less mild than the 11th. Notice the low pressure beginning to wind itself up to the north and a strengthening Greenland high. That is a sign of what is about to happen.

Dec 13th

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The initial low moves east but a second and more significant player has formed behind it and much colder air is waiting to the north of this low. This is the last mild day of the month on this run

Dec 14th

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A cold front associated with that second low pushes southwards, clearing out all of the mild air. Turns much colder behind it and showers turning increasingly to sleet and snow follow on

Dec 15th

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Cold air has swept south to all but the far south of the UK but little shower activity due to high pressure generally in charge even if the centre of it is over Greenland. Cold and frosty nights and clear sunny days but maybe a snow shower risk on exposed coastlines

Dec 16th

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Battle lines drawn on the 16th. A low pressure approaching from the south is bumping up into increasingly colder air drifting down from the north. This brings a risk of persistent snow to the south. Rain for the channel islands and S coast but snow inland away from the south coast itself. Drier further north with a snow shower risk in N Scotland

Dec 17th

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The cold air has won this battle and the initial low pressure has filled and fronts has subsided. Cold air still in place with the usual frost, fog and snow shower risk on exposed coastlines

Dec 18th

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Battle ground round 2. Another low pressure is having a go at pushing milder air back into the UK and this time it is going to be a bigger battle. Rain for the S coast and channel islands again but snow as it pushes into S England and S Wales. Drier and cold further north

Dec 19th

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Snow becoming more widespread across England and Wales and a strengthening E to NE wind adding the wind chill factor too. At the same time a big push of milder air heading through mainland Europe whilst we and Scandi remain firmly in the freezer

Dec 20th

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The frontal boundary moves a little further N and W so SE England becoming less cold here with snow turning back to rain again here but further snow piling up, this time more in Wales, C and N England. Scotland and N Ireland dry and cold under that ridge of high pressure

Dec 21st

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Cold air wins the battle yet again for Wales and for C England northwards but less cold air hangs on in the south. Further snow risk for C England northwards but less so on this day

Dec 22nd

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Fronts weakening by this stage but snow still possible in the same areas as the previous day as a general E wind becomes established

Dec 23rd

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High pressure to the N starting to move S over the UK, killing off the snow but also pushing the colder air back into S England as well. Becoming clear and cold and this is where the coldest nights of the month kick in with double digit negative minimums by night, especially over the snowfields in Wales, C and N England and in sheltered Scottish areas too

Dec 24th (Christmas Eve)

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The first of what is going to be 3 very seasonable Christmas period days. All 3 of them are ice days with temperatures struggling to reach freezing point by day and falling well below by night, double digit negative minimums very likely over the snow covering

Dec 25th (Christmas Day)

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A white Christmas here in terms of having a covering of snow on the ground but under high pressure zero falling out of the sky. Otherwise a continuation of the ice days and very cold nights

Dec 26th (Boxing Day)

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Cold air still established here on Boxing Day but a change is approaching from the SW. No doubt a transitional snow event in the making here. Despite less cold uppers there's still plenty of colder air nearer the surface

Dec 27th

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The attempt to dislodge the cold air happens here on the 27th but the fronts and milder air behind are coming up against the colder air in place as well as a stubborn high pressure and the first attempt to push the cold air away fails completely but not before further snow is dumped across similar areas that got it the week before, C and N England and Wales but the south does get into the milder air on this day

Dec 28th

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The high pressure builds back in from the N and E here so cold air remains fixed in place for at least another day. A lot of colder uppers are lurking close to the east of the UK and look like they are going to push back in but another low in the Atlantic is winding itself up ready for milder push number 2

Dec 29th

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Colder air has spread out more over the UK again but this is only going to act to increase the risk of snow when that low in the Atlantic makes its way over to the UK.

Dec 30th

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The first signs of milder air are reaching the SW and the front also makes its first appearance here but a weak one at this stage, some early snow soon fades and turns to rain in the SW. Dry and cold everywhere else but increasingly windy

Dec 31st (New Years Eve)

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New Years Eve is the main transition day as the main low finally reaches the UK and pushes a more active front across the country, Transitional snow on the leading edge, especially further N and E in the UK before the milder air arrives by the end of the day for all

Jan 6th

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As we head into January the milder theme continues as well as the Atlantic winding itself up further

Jan 9th

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However we are soon back into colder air again but this time of a different variety, cold zonality so the snow risk returns but this time mainly for the high ground as well as NW UK

 

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4 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The CFS 9 monthly runs for the 12z run have consistently churned out the coldest on average runs and I thought I'd share another good run for you, maybe not quite as exciting as the previous one I showed you but non the less another cold one on average

Dec 1st

image.thumb.png.e481b029c06c7e9df424460bea78e986.pngimage.thumb.png.b620c4b1dc1005915048257d7bf2d146.png

We begin the month under an area of high pressure and quite a chilly high at that with fog and frost by night and clear sunny but quite cold days. A typical inversion cold setup with those milder uppers and cold air on the surface but look what is lurking to our east

Dec 2nd

image.thumb.png.e74d60a7633546d20f81b325d46589dd.pngimage.thumb.png.f35da7149d51d85d3bf9b87a049155ed.png

On the 2nd we have an attempt to get the winds into the east and those colder temperatures are now advancing westwards across Europe but on their present course they look like they are going to miss us

Dec 3rd

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Finally we tap into some of this colder air by the 3rd, no doubt brining a risk of wintry showers to the S and E in particular but likely not amounting to too much

Dec 4th

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Further wintry weather on the 4th but probably more so due to more widespread cold. Dry and frosty in the N under the high pressure

Dec 5th

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High pressure slips southwards killing off the wintry showers but giving all of us a cold and frosty spell with cold air sat over the UK but look what is lurking up to the north

Dec 6th

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An attempt to get an Arctic blast is showing up here on the 6th. Still left over cold from the earlier easterly spell but much colder air waiting up to the north

Dec 7th

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That area of high pressure that kept the earlier cold in place is now our big enemy here as it is stalling the progress of the Arctic northerly. It needs to move out west to allow a full on Arctic plunge

Dec 8th

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Grrrrrr. That high pressure is slipping down into Europe instead so it looks like this attempt to get an Arctic northerly is doomed to failure. Low pressure is also spinning itself up in the Atlantic and a SW wind is starting to look more likely

Dec 9th

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This is knife edge scenario. We have Greenland high and Scandi Low vs Euro high and Azores low. Which one is going to win out. Knowing the UK weather the annoying Azores low and Euro high will win out but it may go the other way on this run.

Dec 10th

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Scandi Low has moved away eastwards and Greenland high has weakened by the 10th so as expected the mild side of the battle has won AS USUAL. We enter the mildest stage of December 2020 on this current CFS 12z run

Dec 11th

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Very mild air has pushed up all the way from the Canary Islands and we are no doubt seeing double digit temperatures both by day and night, not very winter like at all. A very December 2015 setup showing on this chart. Guess that is curtains for cold now seeing that chart but fear not, this mild is very short lived

Dec 12th

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Still mild here on the 12th of December but very likely less mild than the 11th. Notice the low pressure beginning to wind itself up to the north and a strengthening Greenland high. That is a sign of what is about to happen.

Dec 13th

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The initial low moves east but a second and more significant player has formed behind it and much colder air is waiting to the north of this low. This is the last mild day of the month on this run

Dec 14th

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A cold front associated with that second low pushes southwards, clearing out all of the mild air. Turns much colder behind it and showers turning increasingly to sleet and snow follow on

Dec 15th

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Cold air has swept south to all but the far south of the UK but little shower activity due to high pressure generally in charge even if the centre of it is over Greenland. Cold and frosty nights and clear sunny days but maybe a snow shower risk on exposed coastlines

Dec 16th

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Battle lines drawn on the 16th. A low pressure approaching from the south is bumping up into increasingly colder air drifting down from the north. This brings a risk of persistent snow to the south. Rain for the channel islands and S coast but snow inland away from the south coast itself. Drier further north with a snow shower risk in N Scotland

Dec 17th

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The cold air has won this battle and the initial low pressure has filled and fronts has subsided. Cold air still in place with the usual frost, fog and snow shower risk on exposed coastlines

Dec 18th

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Battle ground round 2. Another low pressure is having a go at pushing milder air back into the UK and this time it is going to be a bigger battle. Rain for the S coast and channel islands again but snow as it pushes into S England and S Wales. Drier and cold further north

Dec 19th

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Snow becoming more widespread across England and Wales and a strengthening E to NE wind adding the wind chill factor too. At the same time a big push of milder air heading through mainland Europe whilst we and Scandi remain firmly in the freezer

Dec 20th

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The frontal boundary moves a little further N and W so SE England becoming less cold here with snow turning back to rain again here but further snow piling up, this time more in Wales, C and N England. Scotland and N Ireland dry and cold under that ridge of high pressure

Dec 21st

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Cold air wins the battle yet again for Wales and for C England northwards but less cold air hangs on in the south. Further snow risk for C England northwards but less so on this day

Dec 22nd

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Fronts weakening by this stage but snow still possible in the same areas as the previous day as a general E wind becomes established

Dec 23rd

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High pressure to the N starting to move S over the UK, killing off the snow but also pushing the colder air back into S England as well. Becoming clear and cold and this is where the coldest nights of the month kick in with double digit negative minimums by night, especially over the snowfields in Wales, C and N England and in sheltered Scottish areas too

Dec 24th (Christmas Eve)

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The first of what is going to be 3 very seasonable Christmas period days. All 3 of them are ice days with temperatures struggling to reach freezing point by day and falling well below by night, double digit negative minimums very likely over the snow covering

Dec 25th (Christmas Day)

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A white Christmas here in terms of having a covering of snow on the ground but under high pressure zero falling out of the sky. Otherwise a continuation of the ice days and very cold nights

Dec 26th (Boxing Day)

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Cold air still established here on Boxing Day but a change is approaching from the SW. No doubt a transitional snow event in the making here. Despite less cold uppers there's still plenty of colder air nearer the surface

Dec 27th

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The attempt to dislodge the cold air happens here on the 27th but the fronts and milder air behind are coming up against the colder air in place as well as a stubborn high pressure and the first attempt to push the cold air away fails completely but not before further snow is dumped across similar areas that got it the week before, C and N England and Wales but the south does get into the milder air on this day

Dec 28th

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The high pressure builds back in from the N and E here so cold air remains fixed in place for at least another day. A lot of colder uppers are lurking close to the east of the UK and look like they are going to push back in but another low in the Atlantic is winding itself up ready for milder push number 2

Dec 29th

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Colder air has spread out more over the UK again but this is only going to act to increase the risk of snow when that low in the Atlantic makes its way over to the UK.

Dec 30th

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The first signs of milder air are reaching the SW and the front also makes its first appearance here but a weak one at this stage, some early snow soon fades and turns to rain in the SW. Dry and cold everywhere else but increasingly windy

Dec 31st (New Years Eve)

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New Years Eve is the main transition day as the main low finally reaches the UK and pushes a more active front across the country, Transitional snow on the leading edge, especially further N and E in the UK before the milder air arrives by the end of the day for all

Jan 6th

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As we head into January the milder theme continues as well as the Atlantic winding itself up further

Jan 9th

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However we are soon back into colder air again but this time of a different variety, cold zonality so the snow risk returns but this time mainly for the high ground as well as NW UK

 

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Note to self, remember to stay indoors on the the 9th of January! 😂 

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A thoroughly enjoyable post SqueakHeart! Imagine that - a December like January that leads to a January like December, only the cold zonality would much more likely deliver compared to December.

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On 17/11/2020 at 22:36, Alexis said:

Other than 2010 I can't recall a single winter that got going before Christmas Day to be honest! 

2009/10 was well and truly going by mid December....

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5 minutes ago, Alexis said:

6th Jan 2010 in the northwest. Dec 09 wasn't much cop here.

I was in the northwest during December 2009 and I disagree completely! It was very wintry from about the 17th onwards with numerous snowfalls and icy pavements which lasted into January. And that was on tropical Merseyside. 

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11 minutes ago, Alexis said:

6th Jan 2010 in the northwest. Dec 09 wasn't much cop here.

It was in some parts of the North West, higher oxhey farm near Saddleworth was cut off since before xmas 09.

Agree it was crap in Manchester city centre until after xmas but even then there was 1 and a half inch falls, so given that was a rarity pre that solar min, it wasn't too bad.

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1 hour ago, JeffC said:

2009/10 was well and truly going by mid December....

December 2009  started off mild and wet, then a major flip happened on the 9th, high pressure built in the Norweigan Sea and joined forces with the azores high from a long drawn SW flow to a blocked continental flow in the space of 2 days. From there on it became progressively colder, we had lots of snow 19-20th, and despite a minor thaw Boxing Day - 27th it stayed mostly cold into the New Year. It was a much snowier spell here compared to Dec 2010. 

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

December 2009  started off mild and wet, then a major flip happened on the 9th, high pressure built in the Norweigan Sea and joined forces with the azores high from a long drawn SW flow to a blocked continental flow in the space of 2 days. From there on it became progressively colder, we had lots of snow 19-20th, and despite a minor thaw Boxing Day - 27th it stayed mostly cold into the New Year. It was a much snowier spell here compared to Dec 2010. 

Indeed, I remember it well, was involved in a rescue the night of 21 st  Dec '09 and it was snowing like crazy. Very bad conditions for a search, but we found the missing person and got them to hospital albeit with severe hypothermia.

21st Dec 10 around 23:00 we had an earthquake!It was very cold, the water inlet I to my boiler froze! ~ -15C

 

EARTHQUAKES.BGS.AC.UK

The British Geological Survey provides up-to-date...

 

 

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Model output is a yawn fest. At this time of the year I look for snow as most on here do. If not that I'm content with sunny and frosty weather and at least if its zonal you always have the chance of a windstorm to keep interest. These never ending euro heights just lead to mundane nothingness. I get plenty of rain with them but no real high wind potential. Worst of all scenarios.

If climate change means this pattern persisting and becoming ever more frequent during Winter then god help us lol. I feel as if it is.

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13 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

I was in the northwest during December 2009 and I disagree completely! It was very wintry from about the 17th onwards with numerous snowfalls and icy pavements which lasted into January. And that was on tropical Merseyside. 

I agree, I reckon it was snowier than the equivalent week during December 1981.

It snowed on the Thursday 17th, Saturday 19th, Sunday 20th, Tuesday 22nd and Wednesday 23rd.

Tuesday morning was brilliant, it really came down and I think Manchester Airport had to close for a time

 

 

 

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