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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Have faith. He predicted a poor summer for 2018, based on the previous years ending in 8, having poor summers. 1978, 88, 98, and 2008 were all poor, but 18 bucked the trend.

I tend to look at how the weather pans out in late October and during November, which often points to a cold or mild winter.

Sometimes it’s more exciting when you just observe the change in the weather, without relying on long range forecasting.

And I'm struggling to come up with a more inane 'method' of seasonal prediction! :wallbash:

But, of course the mighty Spurs will win the domestic treble, this season, as the season ends in a year ending in one!:yahoo::oldlaugh:

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Good Evening - An enjoyable period of model watching this past 24 hours as we begin to see high pressure develop over the pole in the 10-15 day outlooks - Whats interesting to me is whils

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48 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I think front loaded winters are better. You get the cold in nice and early when the days are short and the sun is at its weakest meaning snow and frost are much more likely to stick around throughout daylight hours and if the pattern gets locked in enough it can take some shifting.

Also with a front loaded winter there always remains the chance of a SSW which can then add a back loaded element to the winter too.

2017/18 was a good example of this with some early snow chances and events late November 2017 into December 2017 before the milder January and then the SSW happened that delivered Beast from the East at end of February 2018 and then Beast from the East part 2 in mid March 2018

Definitely prefer front loaded winters. As you say, with the weak solar radiation you have a much higher chance of ice days. This is especially the case when there is light winds and snow cover.

The other added benefit is that easterlies often bring in much heavier showers earlier in the winter as cold air crosses the much warmer North Sea.

Winter 2010/11 was great IMO because Hull got battered and the snow stuck around for 4 weeks in the December. We also got a really cold Christmas. It all felt very seasonal.

By February, unless there is a beast I get bored and look out for the warmer days.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Morning peeps,

Oh dear oh dear I was feeling really optimistic about this coming winter untill I caught up with Gavs first seasonal model roundup which was released yesterday, after listening to It, wish I hadn't I must admit my heart sunk because it's a horror forcast from the models for us coldies. The Met Office  are forecasting a mild or very mild winter for the northern hemisphere together with several other models. I know it's very early days and it was the first seasonal roundup but for god mighty I hope it's not a picture of things that are to come this winter. Has anyone got any idea of how reliable the met seasonal model is going by past years?

Its early days and these seasonal model forecasts are to be taken by pinch of salt, but it does shock the system a bit and it does make you start doubting your hopes.

As far as the short term I think unsettled and autumnal would sum it up going by the models.

hope you all have a great Sunday

kind regards 😊😊😊😊


 

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10 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps,

Oh dear oh dear I was feeling really optimistic about this coming winter untill I caught up with Gavs first seasonal model roundup which was released yesterday, after listening to It, wish I hadn't I must admit my heart sunk because it's a horror forcast from the models for us coldies. The Met Office  are forecasting a mild or very mild winter for the northern hemisphere together with several other models. I know it's very early days and it was the first seasonal roundup but for god mighty I hope it's not a picture of things that are to come this winter. Has anyone got any idea of how reliable the met seasonal model is going by past years?

Its early days and these seasonal model forecasts are to be taken by pinch of salt, but it does shock the system a bit and it does make you start doubting your hopes.

As far as the short term I think unsettled and autumnal would sum it up going by the models.

hope you all have a great Sunday

kind regards 😊😊😊😊


 

if it's any consolation, every winter is forecast mild. Nobody dares stick their neck out.

 

Next week is looking very wet and windy, and cold.  But we've had a great summer (which started in late march)  so how can we grumble 🙂

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10 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps,

Oh dear oh dear I was feeling really optimistic about this coming winter untill I caught up with Gavs first seasonal model roundup which was released yesterday, after listening to It, wish I hadn't I must admit my heart sunk because it's a horror forcast from the models for us coldies. The Met Office  are forecasting a mild or very mild winter for the northern hemisphere together with several other models. I know it's very early days and it was the first seasonal roundup but for god mighty I hope it's not a picture of things that are to come this winter. Has anyone got any idea of how reliable the met seasonal model is going by past years?

Its early days and these seasonal model forecasts are to be taken by pinch of salt, but it does shock the system a bit and it does make you start doubting your hopes.

As far as the short term I think unsettled and autumnal would sum it up going by the models.

hope you all have a great Sunday

kind regards 😊😊😊😊


 

Think I could just about accept a mild winter provided it comes with an active Atlantic season as opposed to a yawn fest brought on by a relentless Azores/Euro high 💤

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45 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps,

Oh dear oh dear I was feeling really optimistic about this coming winter untill I caught up with Gavs first seasonal model roundup which was released yesterday, after listening to It, wish I hadn't I must admit my heart sunk because it's a horror forcast from the models for us coldies. The Met Office  are forecasting a mild or very mild winter for the northern hemisphere together with several other models. I know it's very early days and it was the first seasonal roundup but for god mighty I hope it's not a picture of things that are to come this winter. Has anyone got any idea of how reliable the met seasonal model is going by past years?

Its early days and these seasonal model forecasts are to be taken by pinch of salt, but it does shock the system a bit and it does make you start doubting your hopes.

As far as the short term I think unsettled and autumnal would sum it up going by the models.

hope you all have a great Sunday

kind regards 😊😊😊😊


 

I wouldn’t worry too much at this early stage.  I think uncertainty surrounding La Niña and the QBO could be causing a few issues.  However, if they’re still showing the same come late November, then it might be time for concern!

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2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Have faith. He predicted a poor summer for 2018, based on the previous years ending in 8, having poor summers. 1978, 88, 98, and 2008 were all poor, but 18 bucked the trend.

I tend to look at how the weather pans out in late October and during November, which often points to a cold or mild winter.

Sometimes it’s more exciting when you just observe the change in the weather, without relying on long range forecasting.

The video wasn't a forecast, he just went through several long range models, only one of which showed the slightest chance of a cold winter, for what it's worth. 

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44 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

if it's any consolation, every winter is forecast mild.

I don't think 2018/19 was forecast to be (certainly by the MetO and other seasonal models)...but we know that was generally disappointing.

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54 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

According to the reliable cfs,:whistling: it won’t be a mild winter..well, not all the time anyway!😜:cold:..too be honest, I don’t take any seasonal outlook seriously as the weather is dynamic and doesn’t give a 510 dam about anyone’s predictions!😁

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Hi Jon,

lets hope charts like these come to play when we reach December onwards. Alas a lot of time we see these candy charts or they set up this kind of pattern before real winter and then disappear when we really need them. I am optimistic about this season it's going to be a long rollercoaster ride fingers crossed it will be a start if a trend to cold winters. We have had our run of mild ones ( 2018 being exception) when we had the beast from the east. We just now need a switch in trend and it can begin this year.

The story since yesterday from my friends I spoke to has been how the temperatures have dropped in the past few days it has been a bit of a shock to the system. We have a very unsettled week to come and I was already clearing some early fallen leaves from my patio today. Generally a dull and windy day here in Walthamstow today.

Have a great day

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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5 hours ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps,

Oh dear oh dear I was feeling really optimistic about this coming winter untill I caught up with Gavs first seasonal model roundup which was released yesterday, after listening to It, wish I hadn't I must admit my heart sunk because it's a horror forcast from the models for us coldies. The Met Office  are forecasting a mild or very mild winter for the northern hemisphere together with several other models. I know it's very early days and it was the first seasonal roundup but for god mighty I hope it's not a picture of things that are to come this winter. Has anyone got any idea of how reliable the met seasonal model is going by past years?

Its early days and these seasonal model forecasts are to be taken by pinch of salt, but it does shock the system a bit and it does make you start doubting your hopes.

As far as the short term I think unsettled and autumnal would sum it up going by the models.

hope you all have a great Sunday

kind regards 😊😊😊😊


 

Hi East 17 boy.. How's the rest of the old boy band doing... 🤣 Just kidding mate... Thanks to Karl...aka Jon Snow for giving us a little bit of cheer with those CFS charts. For me it's far to early to make predictions for this coming Winter.. Let's not forget its still over 2 months away! Regardless of what Exeter and Gav are predicting and I have respect for both those mentioned..The EC long term anomalies are painting a poor picture for this winter overall.. The last update was September the 5th..and it was showing alot of the Northern Hemisphere to be milder than average, with perhaps January being the colder of the months... But that's very early days, the next update will be October the 5th,so I will update you further come then. But in the meantime perhaps best to not get to stressed over preceedings this early on... For the record I feel a Winter of mixed fortunes looks a good call, and I personally think we will get more action than the previous one.... (wouldn't take much would it) 😉 Then we have to consider the possibility of SSW events which would completely shake things up at short notice. 

Predicting a mild winter will be correct 80 or 90% of the time, with or without skill... But anyone who comes on here and gives good reason for a cold winter to come, and get it right, deserve full credit... Make no mistake about it.. 

 

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Too early to tell re: long range predictions for winter. Wasn't 2009-2010 predicted to be mild? Coldest winter since 1979 happened.

I think the "mild run" will break, but even if we get another 17/18 repeat or 08/09, it's better than most recent ones. 

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8 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

if it's any consolation, every winter is forecast mild. Nobody dares stick their neck out.

 

Next week is looking very wet and windy, and cold.  But we've had a great summer (which started in late march)  so how can we grumble 🙂

We had a nice spring, but summer on the whole wasn’t great. It was hot in parts, but mostly cloudy and some days were fairly miserable. 
 

September and May were the best months of 2020, followed by April. July was the worst.

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2 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

Hi East 17 boy.. How's the rest of the old boy band doing... 🤣 Just kidding mate... Thanks to Karl...aka Jon Snow for giving us a little bit of cheer with those CFS charts. For me it's far to early to make predictions for this coming Winter.. Let's not forget its still over 2 months away! Regardless of what Exeter and Gav are predicting and I have respect for both those mentioned..The EC long term anomalies are painting a poor picture for this winter overall.. The last update was September the 5th..and it was showing alot of the Northern Hemisphere to be milder than average, with perhaps January being the colder of the months... But that's very early days, the next update will be October the 5th,so I will update you further come then. But in the meantime perhaps best to not get to stressed over preceedings this early on... For the record I feel a Winter of mixed fortunes looks a good call, and I personally think we will get more action than the previous one.... (wouldn't take much would it) 😉 Then we have to consider the possibility of SSW events which would completely shake things up at short notice. 

Predicting a mild winter will be correct 80 or 90% of the time, with or without skill... But anyone who comes on here and gives good reason for a cold winter to come, and get it right, deserve full credit... Make no mistake about it.. 

 

I still think this winter will be very cold, but not until after Christmas. Let’s wait and see.

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8 hours ago, Newberryone said:

Think I could just about accept a mild winter provided it comes with an active Atlantic season as opposed to a yawn fest brought on by a relentless Azores/Euro high 💤

opposite with me, can accept a mild winter if it was dry, unlikely I know

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1 hour ago, NeilN said:

Too early to tell re: long range predictions for winter. Wasn't 2009-2010 predicted to be mild? Coldest winter since 1979 happened.

I think the "mild run" will break, but even if we get another 17/18 repeat or 08/09, it's better than most recent ones. 

Yes 2009/10 was indeed the coldest since 78/79, and colder than anything in the 1980s. Also December 2010 was the coldest December for 100 years and colder than 1981, or at least on the same level.

2008/09 was pretty good, but more memorable because it started the trend towards colder winters during that period.

Another 17/18 winter is probably overdue. It’s been 3 years since most areas have seen any decent snow.

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5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

We had a nice spring, but summer on the whole wasn’t great. It was hot in parts, but mostly cloudy and some days were fairly miserable. 
 

September and May were the best months of 2020, followed by April. July was the worst.

This September has been one of the best, it's a shame the cet is coming crashing down now.

As for the coming winter I hope either cold and snowy or wet and stormy.  What will actually happen?  I have a gut feeling for something akin to 17/18 although I dont think it will be colder than that overall 

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3 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

This September has been one of the best, it's a shame the cet is coming crashing down now.

As for the coming winter I hope either cold and snowy or wet and stormy.  What will actually happen?  I have a gut feeling for something akin to 17/18 although I dont think it will be colder than that overall 

my guess is wet and stormy, flooding a problem in some areas, many 'named' storms as well

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5 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

This September has been one of the best, it's a shame the cet is coming crashing down now.

As for the coming winter I hope either cold and snowy or wet and stormy.  What will actually happen?  I have a gut feeling for something akin to 17/18 although I dont think it will be colder than that overall 

I predict it will be better than 17/18, but with a very cold period in January, something similar to 1987.(yes I said it!), but not as cold during February or December like 17/18 was. 

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13 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I predict it will be better than 17/18, but with a very cold period in January, something similar to 1987.(yes I said it!), but not as cold during February or December like 17/18 was. 

Well I certainly hope so about the 1987 part.. a period 1-10 January 2010 followed by 11-20 January 1987 will do nicely, even if that's it for the winter

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4 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

Hi East 17 boy.. How's the rest of the old boy band doing... 🤣 Just kidding mate... Thanks to Karl...aka Jon Snow for giving us a little bit of cheer with those CFS charts. For me it's far to early to make predictions for this coming Winter.. Let's not forget its still over 2 months away! Regardless of what Exeter and Gav are predicting and I have respect for both those mentioned..The EC long term anomalies are painting a poor picture for this winter overall.. The last update was September the 5th..and it was showing alot of the Northern Hemisphere to be milder than average, with perhaps January being the colder of the months... But that's very early days, the next update will be October the 5th,so I will update you further come then. But in the meantime perhaps best to not get to stressed over preceedings this early on... For the record I feel a Winter of mixed fortunes looks a good call, and I personally think we will get more action than the previous one.... (wouldn't take much would it) 😉 Then we have to consider the possibility of SSW events which would completely shake things up at short notice. 

Predicting a mild winter will be correct 80 or 90% of the time, with or without skill... But anyone who comes on here and gives good reason for a cold winter to come, and get it right, deserve full credit... Make no mistake about it.. 

 

Hi Matt,

Hope you are keeping well mate, thanks for your thoughts and I look forward to hearing from you on 5th October with the EC update and fingers crossed it will be an improvement from September, Also you are absolutely right regarding the concept of SSW, it can have an imence impact on the overall winter pattern. All we need for our little island is the jigsaw blocks to all fall in place and then we are in the game.

I have not lost any hope for the coming winter as you have already mentioned it is far too early to make any conclusion. What might be of importance is to see what kind of pattern the autumn settles down into and how the other factors that make a cold winter favourable play out. Sometimes certain weather or air masses can give a hint as to how the atmosphere is playing out. If I remember correctly leading up to 2010 , colder than average temperatures were being noticed from earlier on in the autumn season and that was the first sign that the atmosphere was behaving differently then the normal uk winter. If by any consolation our sudden northerly and Easterly outbreaks that we have seen in the past week is it telling us something or is it just a blip. We have still got several weeks of autumn so best to look for signs. If these northerly or Easterly outbreaks keep happening then yes there is alarm bells ringing.

Whatever happens our weather is something that will always be challenging to work out. With the best of science and computer modelling there will always be some leaf that is left unturned.

As for us coldies like me a lot of you have probably been waiting for this part of the year to be upon us. We have started our winter journey a journey where there will be many ups and downs but we will always travel and live in the hope that maybe this winter.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER  WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN ❄️

Stay safe all

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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1 hour ago, E17boy said:

Hi Matt,

Hope you are keeping well mate, thanks for your thoughts and I look forward to hearing from you on 5th October with the EC update and fingers crossed it will be an improvement from September, Also you are absolutely right regarding the concept of SSW, it can have an imence impact on the overall winter pattern. All we need for our little island is the jigsaw blocks to all fall in place and then we are in the game.

I have not lost any hope for the coming winter as you have already mentioned it is far too early to make any conclusion. What might be of importance is to see what kind of pattern the autumn settles down into and how the other factors that make a cold winter favourable play out. Sometimes certain weather or air masses can give a hint as to how the atmosphere is playing out. If I remember correctly leading up to 2010 , colder than average temperatures were being noticed from earlier on in the autumn season and that was the first sign that the atmosphere was behaving differently then the normal uk winter. If by any consolation our sudden northerly and Easterly outbreaks that we have seen in the past week is it telling us something or is it just a blip. We have still got several weeks of autumn so best to look for signs. If these northerly or Easterly outbreaks keep happening then yes there is alarm bells ringing.

Whatever happens our weather is something that will always be challenging to work out. With the best of science and computer modelling there will always be some leaf that is left unturned.

As for us coldies like me a lot of you have probably been waiting for this part of the year to be upon us. We have started our winter journey a journey where there will be many ups and downs but we will always travel and live in the hope that maybe this winter.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER  WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN ❄️

Stay safe all

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

Search over - I went into the future and found Winter

cyDSLSA.png

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I know it's a 1000-1 long shot, but what's the chance of a February like 1986 happening?

I was one when it happened, and have no memory of that winter at all. Just once weather fronts, let me experience it once in my life!! 

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