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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I still think the mild weather will dominate up until the Christmas period. My prediction is for a very cold post Christmas to mid January period.

    I would be happy with the rest of the winter being average, if this prediction came off. 
     

    Not worried about having a white Christmas, but would be happy with anything In the 4-8c, with either clear sunny spells, or cold cloudy and dry conditions.

    Last Christmas Day was reasonably seasonal, despite the mildness on the run up and afterwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    I still think the mild weather will dominate up until the Christmas period. My prediction is for a very cold post Christmas to mid January period.

    I would be happy with the rest of the winter being average, if this prediction came off. 
     

    Not worried about having a white Christmas, but would be happy with anything In the 4-8c, with either clear sunny spells, or cold cloudy and dry conditions.

    Last Christmas Day was reasonably seasonal, despite the mildness on the run up and afterwards.

    Not sure what you are basing that on, in a way hope you are right, but I think there is a window still for cold in December, maybe starting Dec 2 as lockdown ends (lockdowns being tied to the weather so far this year - no scientific analysis or modelling there!) and then an almost inevitable mild run from late December through to mid February, and then a sting in the tail end of Feb as a result of a SSW sometime in January.  That’s my bet, anyway...we will see...

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    The charts do suggest a strong jetstream, but instead of the trough positioning itself to our NW, the core is further east to our north. This can happen with a buckled jet, wavy, periods of cold and mild zonality, with the former having the upper hand.

    All hinges on position of jetstream, and it suggests to me quite a big if interference from tropical activity, not indicative of an entrenched La Nina state, enough to shake things up, just as we have endured so far this November, albeit the trough has sat to our west, but with greater la Nina forcing, trough likely to be pushed further east. 

    Thank you @damianslaw that's very useful and informative (and gives some hope for winter!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Not sure what you are basing that on, in a way hope you are right, but I think there is a window still for cold in December, maybe starting Dec 2 as lockdown ends (lockdowns being tied to the weather so far this year - no scientific analysis or modelling there!) and then an almost inevitable mild run from late December through to mid February, and then a sting in the tail end of Feb as a result of a SSW sometime in January.  That’s my bet, anyway...we will see...

    That would suggest a winter a la 17/18, which brought a cold first half to December, it became much milder though in the run up to christmas, then a brief cooler spell, a very mild January (cold at times in the north though), SSW early Feb, potent cold end Feb. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    That would suggest a winter a la 17/18, which brought a cold first half to December, it became much milder though in the run up to christmas, then a brief cooler spell, a very mild January (cold at times in the north though), SSW early Feb, potent cold end Feb. 

     

    Yep, that would be my bet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yep, that would be my bet!

    I'd certainly take that - lots of variety, and the coldest winter since 12/13.

    One thing I'd like to see is a colder run in to christmas and over christmas, so would much prefer a milder first half to Dec cancelled out by a colder second half, but its something that seems hard to come by these days, exception 2009, 2010. Dec 08, and 12 did the same as 17, cold first halves much milder second halves especially 12, last week of 08 was cold though. Something about a cold lead up to christmas day that's special, 2009 and 2010 were exceptional.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    I'd certainly take that - lots of variety, and the coldest winter since 12/13.

    One thing I'd like to see is a colder run in to christmas and over christmas, so would much prefer a milder first half to Dec cancelled out by a colder second half, but its something that seems hard to come by these days, exception 2009, 2010. Dec 08, and 12 did the same as 17, cold first halves much milder second halves especially 12, last week of 08 was cold though. Something about a cold lead up to christmas day that's special, 2009 and 2010 were exceptional.

    I remember the transition through Christmas 2008 very clearly. Dull and mild on Christmas Eve, a clearance from the northeast on Christmas Day and very chilly feel as the day went on, then a bitter Boxing Day, followed by 2 weeks of sometimes bone chilling cold. A spell of weather I fondly remember, despite very little snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    I remember the transition through Christmas 2008 very clearly. Dull and mild on Christmas Eve, a clearance from the northeast on Christmas Day and very chilly feel as the day went on, then a bitter Boxing Day, followed by 2 weeks of sometimes bone chilling cold. A spell of weather I fondly remember, despite very little snow.

    I've started a thread about favourite Decembers in Historic Weather. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    7 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    I still think the mild weather will dominate up until the Christmas period. My prediction is for a very cold post Christmas to mid January period.

    I would be happy with the rest of the winter being average, if this prediction came off. 
     

    Yeah, so would I!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    13 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, my preliminary thoughts - cold early and late (although unlikely to be brutal cold early) - middle period nitto

    Agreed, preparing myself for ‘an awful’ Jan....and will feel even worse if Dec chances hang too far east and Atlantic wins....again.

    Re nearer time it does appear models jostling to get us into a westerly rut....

     BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    41 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Agreed, preparing myself for ‘an awful’ Jan....and will feel even worse if Dec chances hang too far east and Atlantic wins....again.

    Re nearer time it does appear models jostling to get us into a westerly rut....

     BFTP

    The only way out is if the nina unexpectedly starts subsiding right now as remember - there is a lag effect, i still leave Feb, certainly late feb open, reason for that is the nina could very much subside by then, even factoring in lag effects, and moderate ninas, or on the nina side of enso neutral, have delivered in the past, and in a solar min and at the time that the atlantic quietens down anyway, could be the best time and could actually be better for all then as vaccination programme could be well underway by then and coupled with some weak herd immunity from the current huge transmission rates, could mean we enjoy it more, back to the present though and while a N'ly does remain a possibility up until mid Dec, not sure it will be potent enough to deliver anything special.

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    Posted
  • Location: Westhill, Aberdeenshire 150m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow winter, hot summer
  • Location: Westhill, Aberdeenshire 150m

    I very much doubt there will be a northerly this winter. It has been a decade since the last proper winter northerly. For here northerlies are by far the best direction for snow. Even Glasgow has had more snow than us in recent times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Agreed, preparing myself for ‘an awful’ Jan....and will feel even worse if Dec chances hang too far east and Atlantic wins....again.

    Re nearer time it does appear models jostling to get us into a westerly rut....

    Sounds like you're backing out of your forecast for a cold spell in December? usually you stick to your guns (one's which fire blanks). 🙂

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    This CFS run caught my eye and would be a decent December if it came off

    After a bland start to December the fun gets going on the 8th

    image.thumb.png.2ca90262ceed8119303a111b317c0ffa.pngimage.thumb.png.22a9c0a101ef55afeb71134d1c6fa122.png

    An Arctic northerly heralds the start of what is going to turn out to be cold weather that lasts right to the end of the month

    9th

    image.thumb.png.8321d567e2b1ee82ac21ecd0e40a5871.pngimage.thumb.png.286b40e354c29fda66c6935a60d66ee2.png

    10th

    image.thumb.png.ddd23bb88f590adc1be22c99ad9ff610.pngimage.thumb.png.eec838d6c47e440301db518ca3c10156.png

    Slight variations in the exact wind direction no doubt affecting the distribution of the snow showers but N Ireland and N Scotland as well as N Wales and Norfolk well in the firing line throughout

    11th

    image.thumb.png.611ba45f3bda025dcf2dabadcadb93e6.pngimage.thumb.png.67e44a12ced28808e03b0d31768e9b31.png

    By the 11th the pressure is rising so attention turns to very cold frosty nights, especially anywhere where snow has settled

    12th

    image.thumb.png.ac8c49b04192abcac8d3babfebaa6d35.pngimage.thumb.png.b509dd08d6e0fc85f833212a9c8f0eea.png

    We see a brief less cold NW flow setting up here but still with cold uppers so wintry showers at this stage in the NW rather than snow showers

    13th

    image.thumb.png.915e90239a27a9159bcebbd39e4d3b63.pngimage.thumb.png.31fbc888d4ec3645a2034845a3e5c479.png

    However by the 13th another low pressure is diving down from the NW giving a return to a second surge of cold Arctic air as it exits to the E. This starting to turn the wintry showers back to snow once more.

    14th

    image.thumb.png.46c24fd15d47ac1b5e3e848cf5f4991a.pngimage.thumb.png.09344b22c271d922d6f49292afa278e9.png

    By the 14th high pressure builds into northern areas and the low pressure sets up to the SE, giving a more NE flow to the cold air so eastern areas of England in particular are in the firing line for the snow this time

    15th

    image.thumb.png.27664cda5b3c9076a57eeb9507ee54d0.pngimage.thumb.png.1f2e524e12b0ed481cc64a130a620018.png

    The wind turns more to a due easterly by this stage driving snow showers further west in England whilst the north stays dry and frosty under the high pressure

    16th

    image.thumb.png.df146b8b3b2a6352a9ab444eea996d61.pngimage.thumb.png.32d3b4b2556f83804723086e07112da5.png

    The high builds further south so the whole UK ends up dry, cold and frosty with ice days and maybe some freezing fog too. Very low overnight minimums possible during this period

    17th

    image.thumb.png.73906bb944dc255437ecb35e66b62ec4.pngimage.thumb.png.209ab1a4414daf6f7c7ab916201478c1.png

    18th

    image.thumb.png.0625d7e018ed21a529d1adbc0cb1927a.pngimage.thumb.png.ea12548f74b781a181177121809e4f04.png

    19th

    image.thumb.png.4ac6beefca950f936156600430a7e43c.pngimage.thumb.png.c681cb188bbcdc65a5d5f98577b5eaf8.png

    By the 19th another brief burst of less cold NW winds setting up again but this time colder air is more established so probably a colder NW flow compared with the first one

    20th

    image.thumb.png.d50e5255d1f9f05026fcd33941daa4fe.pngimage.thumb.png.369c824de4a86c651001a01edae994fe.png

    Rinse and repeat situation, another low dives down from NW to SE again but this one is deeper than the last one and has even colder air tied up with it as a 3rd Arctic plunge follows this one too, bringing the coldest weather so far during December

    21st

    image.thumb.png.3464aa2872ae648bffa4cc391b89e437.pngimage.thumb.png.c1586d6efe3ea2db3f7561c8d3de6fd9.png

    A clear trough line can be seen here on the 21st, no doubt a band of persistent snow making its way down from the north with icy cold air setting in behind it

    22nd

    image.thumb.png.c0a5122c54062bcb033192fa87016e7c.pngimage.thumb.png.baefe83e1387dd43882d18b552c7a91f.png

    The build up to Christmas just sees cold air circulating around the low pressure area which gets stuck close to and to our east

    23rd

    image.thumb.png.997e546baffc1a17f0d1d29c92c1f486.pngimage.thumb.png.b5b61852a661ffea29bc74db8c9e7d8e.png

    A very wintry looking chart for the 23rd of December with snow showers or longer outbreaks of snow at times but will it hold for Christmas Day on this run?

    24th (Christmas Eve)

    image.thumb.png.af0f52011f292dd4a1bf147a8009ec45.pngimage.thumb.png.0174eb339b6a31c3ff4a18c61a02a50f.png

    Look at this perfect Christmas Eve chart with low pressure both to the east and south with lots of cold air within the circulation, further snow at times no doubt

    25th (Christmas Day)

    image.thumb.png.b71a54fcc92b64202a7fa13890b743a6.pngimage.thumb.png.d64e62d0fdcc263529a089cf99c70990.png

    A nice beasterly flow by Christmas Day. White Christmas full on here, especially in eastern and southern areas. The NW most likely to stay dry. If only this chart would come off

    26th (Boxing Day)

    image.thumb.png.0198c8de0a2ef2973b50ca20c64d3b33.pngimage.thumb.png.b22e7c4db7adf8ab0897fb4e9002405c.png

    The cold theme even continues into Boxing Day but signs are there this cold spell is about to come to an end as the high pressure to the west is beginning to drift back south towards its usual Azores home

    27th

    image.thumb.png.cbd3c4825dfd5891807ecbfcec6819f9.pngimage.thumb.png.674b12b9aa2475606d62a12ec35ed6c6.png

    28th

    image.thumb.png.b0c20fee212e8bd56fcacce8619e836c.pngimage.thumb.png.e96d2129ab4a01390b93fe943dc047a0.png

    At this stage on the 28th it is initially looking like another low is going to dive down south and bring another surge of cold air but how wrong that is going to be

    29th

    image.thumb.png.ad3271023992021731d2c470e15831d6.pngimage.thumb.png.72cd63e6b5fd0e3454aa3bfc8fc89db2.png

    Low pressures sitting around here in the cold air still bringing the threat of snow for many

    30th

    image.thumb.png.c734593436e4a48f3645683647d12bb5.pngimage.thumb.png.3e8a8ddccdcb3134b68eb0d780f08fb0.png

    By the 30th the tell tale sign of Atlantic breaking back through is starting to show itself, boooooooooooo

    31st

    image.thumb.png.9f10148ef392cbf1edae9d0460353426.pngimage.thumb.png.cc4aab85a41f1c3fca379817a8eb31f0.png

    By the 31st the Atlantic has won back once more but still not particularly mild yet at this stage, as the run progresses into January however the Atlantic is unleashed big time

    5th January

    image.thumb.png.04927f597f8287f90ba78f0d4e9557a9.pngimage.thumb.png.1f336c997271f198329a3d7cfc3a0b82.png

    After what looks like a half hearted attempt to get back to a colder pattern on the 5th it goes to a mild fest after this

    12th January

    image.thumb.png.d440418bbed4c8b85f3f93a1c1be8fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.546458c7d8667185e393ac5ed7fb9e0d.png

    Back to the usual Atlantic onslaught and even stormy by the 12th. Not what we really want to see

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    @SqueakheartLW as much as I'd love to see this, at least you had the sense not to post this on the model discussion thread...

    If this place was a library there would be a section for modern fantasy fiction 😜

    But in any case, it would be welcomed 👍 🤞 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Latest run from CFSv2 for Dec.

    cfsnh-3-12-2020.thumb.png.80c9e3c56dd8879dcd0d4c031a47c21f.pngcfsnh-4-12-2020.thumb.png.7cb6ecbc7c7ceb252e25e3f7fa8a6eb4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    46 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    This CFS run caught my eye and would be a decent December if it came off

    After a bland start to December the fun gets going on the 8th

    image.thumb.png.2ca90262ceed8119303a111b317c0ffa.pngimage.thumb.png.22a9c0a101ef55afeb71134d1c6fa122.png

    An Arctic northerly heralds the start of what is going to turn out to be cold weather that lasts right to the end of the month

    9th

    image.thumb.png.8321d567e2b1ee82ac21ecd0e40a5871.pngimage.thumb.png.286b40e354c29fda66c6935a60d66ee2.png

    10th

    image.thumb.png.ddd23bb88f590adc1be22c99ad9ff610.pngimage.thumb.png.eec838d6c47e440301db518ca3c10156.png

    Slight variations in the exact wind direction no doubt affecting the distribution of the snow showers but N Ireland and N Scotland as well as N Wales and Norfolk well in the firing line throughout

    11th

    image.thumb.png.611ba45f3bda025dcf2dabadcadb93e6.pngimage.thumb.png.67e44a12ced28808e03b0d31768e9b31.png

    By the 11th the pressure is rising so attention turns to very cold frosty nights, especially anywhere where snow has settled

    12th

    image.thumb.png.ac8c49b04192abcac8d3babfebaa6d35.pngimage.thumb.png.b509dd08d6e0fc85f833212a9c8f0eea.png

    We see a brief less cold NW flow setting up here but still with cold uppers so wintry showers at this stage in the NW rather than snow showers

    13th

    image.thumb.png.915e90239a27a9159bcebbd39e4d3b63.pngimage.thumb.png.31fbc888d4ec3645a2034845a3e5c479.png

    However by the 13th another low pressure is diving down from the NW giving a return to a second surge of cold Arctic air as it exits to the E. This starting to turn the wintry showers back to snow once more.

    14th

    image.thumb.png.46c24fd15d47ac1b5e3e848cf5f4991a.pngimage.thumb.png.09344b22c271d922d6f49292afa278e9.png

    By the 14th high pressure builds into northern areas and the low pressure sets up to the SE, giving a more NE flow to the cold air so eastern areas of England in particular are in the firing line for the snow this time

    15th

    image.thumb.png.27664cda5b3c9076a57eeb9507ee54d0.pngimage.thumb.png.1f2e524e12b0ed481cc64a130a620018.png

    The wind turns more to a due easterly by this stage driving snow showers further west in England whilst the north stays dry and frosty under the high pressure

    16th

    image.thumb.png.df146b8b3b2a6352a9ab444eea996d61.pngimage.thumb.png.32d3b4b2556f83804723086e07112da5.png

    The high builds further south so the whole UK ends up dry, cold and frosty with ice days and maybe some freezing fog too. Very low overnight minimums possible during this period

    17th

    image.thumb.png.73906bb944dc255437ecb35e66b62ec4.pngimage.thumb.png.209ab1a4414daf6f7c7ab916201478c1.png

    18th

    image.thumb.png.0625d7e018ed21a529d1adbc0cb1927a.pngimage.thumb.png.ea12548f74b781a181177121809e4f04.png

    19th

    image.thumb.png.4ac6beefca950f936156600430a7e43c.pngimage.thumb.png.c681cb188bbcdc65a5d5f98577b5eaf8.png

    By the 19th another brief burst of less cold NW winds setting up again but this time colder air is more established so probably a colder NW flow compared with the first one

    20th

    image.thumb.png.d50e5255d1f9f05026fcd33941daa4fe.pngimage.thumb.png.369c824de4a86c651001a01edae994fe.png

    Rinse and repeat situation, another low dives down from NW to SE again but this one is deeper than the last one and has even colder air tied up with it as a 3rd Arctic plunge follows this one too, bringing the coldest weather so far during December

    21st

    image.thumb.png.3464aa2872ae648bffa4cc391b89e437.pngimage.thumb.png.c1586d6efe3ea2db3f7561c8d3de6fd9.png

    A clear trough line can be seen here on the 21st, no doubt a band of persistent snow making its way down from the north with icy cold air setting in behind it

    22nd

    image.thumb.png.c0a5122c54062bcb033192fa87016e7c.pngimage.thumb.png.baefe83e1387dd43882d18b552c7a91f.png

    The build up to Christmas just sees cold air circulating around the low pressure area which gets stuck close to and to our east

    23rd

    image.thumb.png.997e546baffc1a17f0d1d29c92c1f486.pngimage.thumb.png.b5b61852a661ffea29bc74db8c9e7d8e.png

    A very wintry looking chart for the 23rd of December with snow showers or longer outbreaks of snow at times but will it hold for Christmas Day on this run?

    24th (Christmas Eve)

    image.thumb.png.af0f52011f292dd4a1bf147a8009ec45.pngimage.thumb.png.0174eb339b6a31c3ff4a18c61a02a50f.png

    Look at this perfect Christmas Eve chart with low pressure both to the east and south with lots of cold air within the circulation, further snow at times no doubt

    25th (Christmas Day)

    image.thumb.png.b71a54fcc92b64202a7fa13890b743a6.pngimage.thumb.png.d64e62d0fdcc263529a089cf99c70990.png

    A nice beasterly flow by Christmas Day. White Christmas full on here, especially in eastern and southern areas. The NW most likely to stay dry. If only this chart would come off

    26th (Boxing Day)

    image.thumb.png.0198c8de0a2ef2973b50ca20c64d3b33.pngimage.thumb.png.b22e7c4db7adf8ab0897fb4e9002405c.png

    The cold theme even continues into Boxing Day but signs are there this cold spell is about to come to an end as the high pressure to the west is beginning to drift back south towards its usual Azores home

    27th

    image.thumb.png.cbd3c4825dfd5891807ecbfcec6819f9.pngimage.thumb.png.674b12b9aa2475606d62a12ec35ed6c6.png

    28th

    image.thumb.png.b0c20fee212e8bd56fcacce8619e836c.pngimage.thumb.png.e96d2129ab4a01390b93fe943dc047a0.png

    At this stage on the 28th it is initially looking like another low is going to dive down south and bring another surge of cold air but how wrong that is going to be

    29th

    image.thumb.png.ad3271023992021731d2c470e15831d6.pngimage.thumb.png.72cd63e6b5fd0e3454aa3bfc8fc89db2.png

    Low pressures sitting around here in the cold air still bringing the threat of snow for many

    30th

    image.thumb.png.c734593436e4a48f3645683647d12bb5.pngimage.thumb.png.3e8a8ddccdcb3134b68eb0d780f08fb0.png

    By the 30th the tell tale sign of Atlantic breaking back through is starting to show itself, boooooooooooo

    31st

    image.thumb.png.9f10148ef392cbf1edae9d0460353426.pngimage.thumb.png.cc4aab85a41f1c3fca379817a8eb31f0.png

    By the 31st the Atlantic has won back once more but still not particularly mild yet at this stage, as the run progresses into January however the Atlantic is unleashed big time

    5th January

    image.thumb.png.04927f597f8287f90ba78f0d4e9557a9.pngimage.thumb.png.1f336c997271f198329a3d7cfc3a0b82.png

    After what looks like a half hearted attempt to get back to a colder pattern on the 5th it goes to a mild fest after this

    12th January

    image.thumb.png.d440418bbed4c8b85f3f93a1c1be8fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.546458c7d8667185e393ac5ed7fb9e0d.png

    Back to the usual Atlantic onslaught and even stormy by the 12th. Not what we really want to see

    Would gladly bank that run and accept the poor Jan.  

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  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    57 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    This CFS run caught my eye and would be a decent December if it came off

    After a bland start to December the fun gets going on the 8th

    image.thumb.png.2ca90262ceed8119303a111b317c0ffa.pngimage.thumb.png.22a9c0a101ef55afeb71134d1c6fa122.png

    An Arctic northerly heralds the start of what is going to turn out to be cold weather that lasts right to the end of the month

    9th

    image.thumb.png.8321d567e2b1ee82ac21ecd0e40a5871.pngimage.thumb.png.286b40e354c29fda66c6935a60d66ee2.png

    10th

    image.thumb.png.ddd23bb88f590adc1be22c99ad9ff610.pngimage.thumb.png.eec838d6c47e440301db518ca3c10156.png

    Slight variations in the exact wind direction no doubt affecting the distribution of the snow showers but N Ireland and N Scotland as well as N Wales and Norfolk well in the firing line throughout

    11th

    image.thumb.png.611ba45f3bda025dcf2dabadcadb93e6.pngimage.thumb.png.67e44a12ced28808e03b0d31768e9b31.png

    By the 11th the pressure is rising so attention turns to very cold frosty nights, especially anywhere where snow has settled

    12th

    image.thumb.png.ac8c49b04192abcac8d3babfebaa6d35.pngimage.thumb.png.b509dd08d6e0fc85f833212a9c8f0eea.png

    We see a brief less cold NW flow setting up here but still with cold uppers so wintry showers at this stage in the NW rather than snow showers

    13th

    image.thumb.png.915e90239a27a9159bcebbd39e4d3b63.pngimage.thumb.png.31fbc888d4ec3645a2034845a3e5c479.png

    However by the 13th another low pressure is diving down from the NW giving a return to a second surge of cold Arctic air as it exits to the E. This starting to turn the wintry showers back to snow once more.

    14th

    image.thumb.png.46c24fd15d47ac1b5e3e848cf5f4991a.pngimage.thumb.png.09344b22c271d922d6f49292afa278e9.png

    By the 14th high pressure builds into northern areas and the low pressure sets up to the SE, giving a more NE flow to the cold air so eastern areas of England in particular are in the firing line for the snow this time

    15th

    image.thumb.png.27664cda5b3c9076a57eeb9507ee54d0.pngimage.thumb.png.1f2e524e12b0ed481cc64a130a620018.png

    The wind turns more to a due easterly by this stage driving snow showers further west in England whilst the north stays dry and frosty under the high pressure

    16th

    image.thumb.png.df146b8b3b2a6352a9ab444eea996d61.pngimage.thumb.png.32d3b4b2556f83804723086e07112da5.png

    The high builds further south so the whole UK ends up dry, cold and frosty with ice days and maybe some freezing fog too. Very low overnight minimums possible during this period

    17th

    image.thumb.png.73906bb944dc255437ecb35e66b62ec4.pngimage.thumb.png.209ab1a4414daf6f7c7ab916201478c1.png

    18th

    image.thumb.png.0625d7e018ed21a529d1adbc0cb1927a.pngimage.thumb.png.ea12548f74b781a181177121809e4f04.png

    19th

    image.thumb.png.4ac6beefca950f936156600430a7e43c.pngimage.thumb.png.c681cb188bbcdc65a5d5f98577b5eaf8.png

    By the 19th another brief burst of less cold NW winds setting up again but this time colder air is more established so probably a colder NW flow compared with the first one

    20th

    image.thumb.png.d50e5255d1f9f05026fcd33941daa4fe.pngimage.thumb.png.369c824de4a86c651001a01edae994fe.png

    Rinse and repeat situation, another low dives down from NW to SE again but this one is deeper than the last one and has even colder air tied up with it as a 3rd Arctic plunge follows this one too, bringing the coldest weather so far during December

    21st

    image.thumb.png.3464aa2872ae648bffa4cc391b89e437.pngimage.thumb.png.c1586d6efe3ea2db3f7561c8d3de6fd9.png

    A clear trough line can be seen here on the 21st, no doubt a band of persistent snow making its way down from the north with icy cold air setting in behind it

    22nd

    image.thumb.png.c0a5122c54062bcb033192fa87016e7c.pngimage.thumb.png.baefe83e1387dd43882d18b552c7a91f.png

    The build up to Christmas just sees cold air circulating around the low pressure area which gets stuck close to and to our east

    23rd

    image.thumb.png.997e546baffc1a17f0d1d29c92c1f486.pngimage.thumb.png.b5b61852a661ffea29bc74db8c9e7d8e.png

    A very wintry looking chart for the 23rd of December with snow showers or longer outbreaks of snow at times but will it hold for Christmas Day on this run?

    24th (Christmas Eve)

    image.thumb.png.af0f52011f292dd4a1bf147a8009ec45.pngimage.thumb.png.0174eb339b6a31c3ff4a18c61a02a50f.png

    Look at this perfect Christmas Eve chart with low pressure both to the east and south with lots of cold air within the circulation, further snow at times no doubt

    25th (Christmas Day)

    image.thumb.png.b71a54fcc92b64202a7fa13890b743a6.pngimage.thumb.png.d64e62d0fdcc263529a089cf99c70990.png

    A nice beasterly flow by Christmas Day. White Christmas full on here, especially in eastern and southern areas. The NW most likely to stay dry. If only this chart would come off

    26th (Boxing Day)

    image.thumb.png.0198c8de0a2ef2973b50ca20c64d3b33.pngimage.thumb.png.b22e7c4db7adf8ab0897fb4e9002405c.png

    The cold theme even continues into Boxing Day but signs are there this cold spell is about to come to an end as the high pressure to the west is beginning to drift back south towards its usual Azores home

    27th

    image.thumb.png.cbd3c4825dfd5891807ecbfcec6819f9.pngimage.thumb.png.674b12b9aa2475606d62a12ec35ed6c6.png

    28th

    image.thumb.png.b0c20fee212e8bd56fcacce8619e836c.pngimage.thumb.png.e96d2129ab4a01390b93fe943dc047a0.png

    At this stage on the 28th it is initially looking like another low is going to dive down south and bring another surge of cold air but how wrong that is going to be

    29th

    image.thumb.png.ad3271023992021731d2c470e15831d6.pngimage.thumb.png.72cd63e6b5fd0e3454aa3bfc8fc89db2.png

    Low pressures sitting around here in the cold air still bringing the threat of snow for many

    30th

    image.thumb.png.c734593436e4a48f3645683647d12bb5.pngimage.thumb.png.3e8a8ddccdcb3134b68eb0d780f08fb0.png

    By the 30th the tell tale sign of Atlantic breaking back through is starting to show itself, boooooooooooo

    31st

    image.thumb.png.9f10148ef392cbf1edae9d0460353426.pngimage.thumb.png.cc4aab85a41f1c3fca379817a8eb31f0.png

    By the 31st the Atlantic has won back once more but still not particularly mild yet at this stage, as the run progresses into January however the Atlantic is unleashed big time

    5th January

    image.thumb.png.04927f597f8287f90ba78f0d4e9557a9.pngimage.thumb.png.1f336c997271f198329a3d7cfc3a0b82.png

    After what looks like a half hearted attempt to get back to a colder pattern on the 5th it goes to a mild fest after this

    12th January

    image.thumb.png.d440418bbed4c8b85f3f93a1c1be8fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.546458c7d8667185e393ac5ed7fb9e0d.png

    Back to the usual Atlantic onslaught and even stormy by the 12th. Not what we really want to see

    That would surely produce one of the coldest Decembers ever lol

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  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    That would surely produce one of the coldest Decembers ever lol

    Well for at least a decade  ..........

    Edited by bluearmy
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  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Desperation...viewing the latest CFS run, come on folks😁. I have followed the CFS 9 monthlies for the last 2 winters and always gave a glimmer of hope at times until you got within a couple of weeks or so and then piff paff poof!! on any run.

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Desperation...viewing the latest CFS run, come on folks😁. I have followed the CFS 9 monthlies for the last 2 winters and always gave a glimmer of hope at times until you got within a couple of weeks or so and then piff paff poof!! on any run.

    I'd agree but it's fun in a way. The cfs always seem to throw up these epic charts and I'd be interested to no if any varify? Suspect not🤣🤣🤣

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  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 minutes ago, swfc said:

    I'd agree but it's fun in a way. The cfs always seem to throw up these epic charts and I'd be interested to no if any varify? Suspect not🤣🤣🤣

    Exactly... it’s also been showing cracking for January since about July so it almost gives the illusion of ‘well it must happen then’ lol.

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  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, MP-R said:

    Exactly... it’s also been showing cracking for January since about July so it almost gives the illusion of ‘well it must happen then’ lol.

    I guess it's the broken clock scenario, so one day 🤣

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  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    7 minutes ago, swfc said:

    I'd agree but it's fun in a way. The cfs always seem to throw up these epic charts and I'd be interested to no if any varify? Suspect not🤣🤣🤣

    Only the March/April 2013 episode...so yes it was for a period 7+ years ago. 🤣

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Only the March/April 2013 episode...so yes it was for a period 7+ years ago. 🤣

    Oh good like the current output then on the nwp😉I'm sure Ian brown would have put this to bed, wherever he is 🤔

    Edited by swfc
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