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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    image.thumb.png.6c6a2f5fd6c28b3db61e839e41d895ab.png

    The more I browse and the more I stare at the current data and projected impacts the more I find myself looking to an SSW to deliver the goods (again). I still think it will start cool, maybe chilly in early December, but everything is lining up for +NAO influence for the most part after that. Nina too strong...QBO in the wrong phase...north pacific remaining too warm. 

    The forecast chart above is by no means catastrophic for SSW hopes. A strong but relatively withdrawn north pacific high can allow low pressures to zip through the aleutians and on to the rockies, and a sceuro high remains a building block for vertical warming in Russia, offering chances for a spanner in the spokes wave 2 moment.

    We will see. I think, once the first half of December has passed, we may need a great deal of patience this season............

    That chart is dated 1st October. Out of date now I suspect. There must have been an update on the 1st November? 

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    Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

    Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

    Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    EC seasonal looks to be showing PM NW'lys to me for early winter?

    pdf2svg-worker-commands-55dc55b7b8-9ghv5

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    EC seasonal looks to be showing PM NW'lys to me for early winter?

    pdf2svg-worker-commands-55dc55b7b8-9ghv5

    That looks better than the October update at least!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    That looks better than the October update at least!

    I'll certainly take it for here, there is scope there for the HP to ridge sufficiently N at times to allow cold shots from the NW or even N

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    EC seasonal looks to be showing PM NW'lys to me for early winter?

    pdf2svg-worker-commands-55dc55b7b8-9ghv5

    Looks very NW'ly bit like December 2017.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    I'll certainly take it for here, there is scope there for the HP to ridge sufficiently N at times to allow cold shots from the NW or even N

    After last winter, I will be happy to see a day of lying snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Looks very NW'ly bit like December 2017.

    Yep that's the month that came to mind!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Looks very NW'ly bit like December 2017.

    Very narrowly missed the snow overnight 9th into 10th December 2017.  However, didn't have far to drive to experience it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    EC seasonal looks to be showing PM NW'lys to me for early winter?

    pdf2svg-worker-commands-55dc55b7b8-9ghv5

    Cheers but do you have the mean Z500 anomaly chart for the 1st November? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Very narrowly missed the snow overnight 9th into 10th December 2017.  However, didn't have far to drive to experience it!

    That was rough for me in SE London the models never expected any snow this south but it did turn to snow I ended up only with a dusting then it moved on, in north London about 15 miles north of here they had a few inches. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    49 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    That chart is dated 1st October. Out of date now I suspect. There must have been an update on the 1st November? 

    image.thumb.png.fd5fd6f9c3c30a32e088dcd3b0669aca.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    34 minutes ago, Don said:

    After last winter, I will be happy to see a day of lying snow!

    But even up here we only had a light covering one morning which was gone by around lunch time. Probably the 2nd worst winter I can remember.

    2013-14 was probably worst I've experienced in my 70 years though with just a dusting one evening. All the more disappointing given the previous winter was a good one. To have two of the worst less than 10 years apart tells me that climate change is the likely culprit. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    On a more positive near term note amidst the seasonal forecasting gloom, really good sighter of a vigorous aleutian low in the north pacific forcing a ridge up ahead of it into the pole. Wave break. Also present on the EPS. These sorts of events can shake up the tropospheric pattern as well as fire warmth up into the vortex. We need plenty of this kind of thing to try and break the default forecast pattern.

    image.thumb.png.4042ae9ad9f528ea84aef47058dea3dd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    The more I look at the Oct EC seasonal forecast the more suspect it looks, how can you have only low heights over N Canada regions and anomalous heights across the rest of the northern hemisphere..

    The Nov EC seasonal at least on paper makes sense, ridge/trough/ridge/trough pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    55 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Looks very NW'ly bit like December 2017.

    Yes and winter 17/18 brought a la Nina imprint, although weaker than ours currently. December was a bit topsy turvy a cold end to November followed by a generally cold first half to December with NW flow and sliders, bringing widespread snow for some but not all. Things did flip in the run up to christmas with the now default wet mild pattern that has plagued every lead up to christmas it feels since 2010. Late December brought a colder brief episode with some snow for some again.

    January in the main was very mild for most, although in northern parts there was a cold period mid-month.

    February became progressively colder with a potent cold spell at the very end.

    Another La Nina December was 1999, that was milder than 2017 but there was a spell of North westerlies mid month, and some snow for some, before all broke down in time for christmas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Another La Nina December was 1999, that was milder than 2017 but there was a spell of North westerlies mid month, and some snow for some, before all broke down in time for christmas.

    Parts of southern England actually experienced a half decent snowfall event on the 18th December 1999.  However, the rest of winter was pants!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    The more I look at the Oct EC seasonal forecast the more suspect it looks, how can you have only low heights over N Canada regions and anomalous heights across the rest of the northern hemisphere..

    The Nov EC seasonal at least on paper makes sense, ridge/trough/ridge/trough pattern.

    I do like the EC seasonal update, could be great for us here in the North West with frequent cold North westerlies, something like January 1984 would do nicely.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    EC seasonal looks to be showing PM NW'lys to me for early winter?

    pdf2svg-worker-commands-55dc55b7b8-9ghv5

    Yes I do like the look of that chart; not a big cold spell deliverer but some chilly weather and clean air good for sunsets!

    My experience of looking at these charts is limited, but would I be right to doubt this one?

    To me it seems that the high pressure in the North Pacific would allow very cold air to topple into Canada then move out into the West Atlantic which as we know livens up the Jetstream. To me it seems that High Pressure in the Northwest Atlantic wouldn't survive or hold out in such dynamis.

    As I say though, I might just be reading this wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    28 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    Yes I do like the look of that chart; not a big cold spell deliverer but some chilly weather and clean air good for sunsets!

    My experience of looking at these charts is limited, but would I be right to doubt this one?

    To me it seems that the high pressure in the North Pacific would allow very cold air to topple into Canada then move out into the West Atlantic which as we know livens up the Jetstream. To me it seems that High Pressure in the Northwest Atlantic wouldn't survive or hold out in such dynamis.

    As I say though, I might just be reading this wrong!

    The charts do suggest a strong jetstream, but instead of the trough positioning itself to our NW, the core is further east to our north. This can happen with a buckled jet, wavy, periods of cold and mild zonality, with the former having the upper hand.

    All hinges on position of jetstream, and it suggests to me quite a big if interference from tropical activity, not indicative of an entrenched La Nina state, enough to shake things up, just as we have endured so far this November, albeit the trough has sat to our west, but with greater la Nina forcing, trough likely to be pushed further east. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    My fifth CFS Christmas update here for you all to read today containing the next 10 days worth of analysis from the CFS 9 monthly runs from meteociel

    My first to fourth updates came in with the following figures

    Update 1

    26/09/2020 to 05/10/2020 Data

    Temps            0z          6z       12z          18z     TOTALS          Precip            0z           6z         12z      18z      TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                    0                   V Dry                                                                     0

    Mild                 2                        1              2          5                   Dry                  2             4          3           7           16

    Average          4            6          5              3         18                  Average          4             2          4           2           12

    Cold                 4           3          4              3         14                  Wet                 4             4          3           1           12

    V Cold                           1                          2          3                   V Wet                                                                    0

    LEADER        AV/CD    AV    AV/CD    AV/CD    AV                  LEADER     AV/WET     AV       AV       DRY       DRY

    AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED IN FIRST UPDATE

    DRIER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED IN FIRST UPDATE

    Update 2

    06/10/2020 to 15/10/2020 Data

    Temps           0z           6z         12z       18z     TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z       18z     TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                   0                   V Dry                                                                     0

    Mild                1                                                    1                   Dry                 2             2              2           1         7

    Average         7             7             6            3       23                 Average         6             4             7            6        23

    Cold               1             3             2            5       11                 Wet                2             3             1            3         9

    V Cold            1                            2            2        5                  V Wet                            1                                      1

    LEADER        AV          AV           AV         CD      AV                LEADER        AV           AV          AV          AV      AV

    AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATIVE

    AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS

    Update 3

    16/10/2020 to 25/10/2020 Data

    Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                        0                     V Dry                                                                         0

    Mild                                                              2           2                     Dry                1             3              3               3         10

    Average        5             4              5              3          17                   Average        6             7              4               5         22

    Cold              5             3              5              4           17                  Wet               3                             3                2         8

    V Cold                          3                              1            4                   V Wet                                                                        0

    LEADER     AV/CD     COLD     AV/CD      COLD    AV/CD           LEADER       AV           AV           AV              AV       AV

    AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED

    AVERAGE PRECIPITATION PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS

    Update 4

    26/10/2020 to 04/11/2020 Data

    Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                             0                V Dry                                                             1                1

    Mild                1             2             1             1                 5               Dry                 4            6              4               5               19

    Average          6            6             7              3               22              Average         4            4              5               3               16

    Cold                3                            2              5               10             Wet                2                             1               1                5

    V Cold                            2                             1                3              V Wet                                                                               0

    LEADER         AV           AV          AV           CD             AV             LEADER    AV/DRY    DRY      AV/DRY       DRY          DRY

    AVERAGE TEMPS PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS

    DRIER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED

    LATEST UPDATE - UPDATE 5

    Now it is time to reveal the latest 10 days of analysis from the 9 monthly CFS runs for Christmas 2020. The change from the previous update is shown in brackets next to the figures in the totals column.

    05/11/2020 to 14/11/2020 Data

    Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                             0 (0)          V Dry                                                                             0 (-1)

    Mild               1             1              2             1                5 (0)          Dry                                 1              1              1             3 (-16)

    Average        4             4              4             5               17 (-5)        Average          9            5              6              6             26 (+10)

    Cold              5             5              3             4                17 (+7)      Wet                  1            4              3              3             11 (+6)

    V Cold                                          1                                1 (-2)        V Wet                                                                             0 (0)

    LEADER    AV/CD    AV/CD    AV/CD     AV/CD         AV/CD        LEADER          AV     AV/WET       AV            AV           AV

    Temperatures - Between update 4 and the latest update 5 we have seen quite a shift towards colder than average for Christmas Day with a +7 gain to the Cold option at the expense of Average and V Cold which is the downside of the shift here. Looking more like a chilly Christmas rather than an icy cold one with marginal snow at best but still better than a rainy Christmas.

    Precipitation - Between update 4 and the latest update 5 a very big shift has taken place in the direction of wetter. The drier options have both lost out this time around with V Dry losing its only hit and Dry losing a big 16 hits. Average and Wet have picked up the points that were in the drier options. This combined with the colder shift could mean an increased snow chance for Christmas Day now compared with the last update

    NOW FOR A NEW ADDITION TO MY CHRISTMAS UPDATES NOW THE ECM MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS NOW IN RANGE OF CHRISTMAS WEEK

    Here is the 500mb anomaly chart for the week that includes Christmas Day

    image.thumb.png.4c56dc91309b563782dbca3aa6ac0bf3.png

    Not particularly inspiring if you want a white Christmas, at least of the snowy variety. However with high pressure close by to the south then a frosty start to Christmas Day could be on the cards for England and Wales at least but Scotland and N Ireland more likely to be too windy or cloudy for this with the threat of weather fronts passing to the N of the UK

    Here are the 2m temperature anomaly charts and precipitation anomaly charts for the same week

    image.thumb.png.719c197c9dbab44859abdba319e4bc37.pngimage.thumb.png.cce5a49e669b123007e484d823076593.png

    Very much average then at this range so nothing inspiring and any precipitation likely to be just plain old rain so no white Christmas showing up at this range with the ECM at least

    The next Christmas update will be in 10 days time on 24/11/2020

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    ECM  eps scenario clusters 500hpa  for the 14 november onwards arnt looking great. That said they change more than the Mrs moods🤔🤔🤔

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    Good afternoon all

    I’ve enjoyed this thread this year and I feel it’s been a useful addition. It’s brought an eclectic mix of musings and models and, without a whole heap of rules or protocols to follow has managed to strike a nice balance between one line speculations and detailed synoptic analysis. I’m going to throw my ten pence in here with a focus on the run up to Christmas.

    First of all, the early-mid December period is now within the crystal ball of the EC46, which for all its failings is still imho (and presumably given their implicit references to it the writers of the 16-30 day METO?) the best medium range forecasting product presently available. So where are we now?

    I’m using the Icelandic charts to give a clearer comparison with last years situation.

    Weeks 4 and 5 from 12.11.2020

    Mid Atlantic ridge, cooler, maybe colder. As BA suggests, lack of a Eurolow perhaps precluding a jackpot scenario but still, very acceptable for early December and within expectations for the canonical Nina winter.

    18 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Those model updates for winter show some promise for dec but still little sign of any low euro pressure anoms which will generally make it a struggle for a snowy set up 

    image.thumb.png.59656373f846f5b3981be3da8a7b60b6.pngimage.thumb.png.7a3e5be5082f0ccbb8fb3876d9242ea9.png

     

    Weeks 4 and 5 from 14.11.19 
    Bleak.

    image.thumb.png.f937f3abc7823e7e12e6ba716610efc5.pngimage.thumb.png.68d0a7aec03de700ae050ad2eb36e7ab.png
     

    No hope there. Only for ducks.


    Simon Lee has tweeted the December round up of the Copernicus affiliated seasonals and they’re very much along these lines. And yes the NOAA contribution is flat but I would take All earthly models versus the CFS every single time.

    Cansips and BCC for in particular are not without interest for December. The former progs a UK high (which personally I would bank in December, especially being a Cumbrian river valley dweller...). The latter a little outlandish but still another string to our increasingly interesting bow.

    image.thumb.png.4f6e57037d055c9aa6af9f3b7431997f.pngimage.thumb.png.8af6a21a4fda597df774bb885fb13ecc.png


    Week 4 CFS anomalies are also promising 

    image.thumb.png.bb2c8c31b283bb9dbf40c01d61e1e225.png

    Also some very interesting ruminations on Twitter vis a drop in the anomalous high AAM state that has set up our present situation to something a little more accommodating to the early winter mid Atlantic Nina ridge... too early to be sure perhaps and certainly beyond my pay grade!


    So enough evidence then to suggest that the early - mid part of December holds some seasonal promise. Not a 2010 redux but hopefully not relentless long fetch South westerlies.

    Finally, to answer SqueakheartLW’s pertinent question regarding the classification of this Nina event, I would say it still looks basinwide, certainly not CP and as you say the sub surface anomalies don’t support it either.

     

    Edited by Uncertainy
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  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    My fifth CFS Christmas update here for you all to read today containing the next 10 days worth of analysis from the CFS 9 monthly runs from meteociel

    My first to fourth updates came in with the following figures

    Update 1

    26/09/2020 to 05/10/2020 Data

    Temps            0z          6z       12z          18z     TOTALS          Precip            0z           6z         12z      18z      TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                    0                   V Dry                                                                     0

    Mild                 2                        1              2          5                   Dry                  2             4          3           7           16

    Average          4            6          5              3         18                  Average          4             2          4           2           12

    Cold                 4           3          4              3         14                  Wet                 4             4          3           1           12

    V Cold                           1                          2          3                   V Wet                                                                    0

    LEADER        AV/CD    AV    AV/CD    AV/CD    AV                  LEADER     AV/WET     AV       AV       DRY       DRY

    AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED IN FIRST UPDATE

    DRIER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED IN FIRST UPDATE

    Update 2

    06/10/2020 to 15/10/2020 Data

    Temps           0z           6z         12z       18z     TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z       18z     TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                   0                   V Dry                                                                     0

    Mild                1                                                    1                   Dry                 2             2              2           1         7

    Average         7             7             6            3       23                 Average         6             4             7            6        23

    Cold               1             3             2            5       11                 Wet                2             3             1            3         9

    V Cold            1                            2            2        5                  V Wet                            1                                      1

    LEADER        AV          AV           AV         CD      AV                LEADER        AV           AV          AV          AV      AV

    AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATIVE

    AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS

    Update 3

    16/10/2020 to 25/10/2020 Data

    Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                        0                     V Dry                                                                         0

    Mild                                                              2           2                     Dry                1             3              3               3         10

    Average        5             4              5              3          17                   Average        6             7              4               5         22

    Cold              5             3              5              4           17                  Wet               3                             3                2         8

    V Cold                          3                              1            4                   V Wet                                                                        0

    LEADER     AV/CD     COLD     AV/CD      COLD    AV/CD           LEADER       AV           AV           AV              AV       AV

    AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED

    AVERAGE PRECIPITATION PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS

    Update 4

    26/10/2020 to 04/11/2020 Data

    Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                             0                V Dry                                                             1                1

    Mild                1             2             1             1                 5               Dry                 4            6              4               5               19

    Average          6            6             7              3               22              Average         4            4              5               3               16

    Cold                3                            2              5               10             Wet                2                             1               1                5

    V Cold                            2                             1                3              V Wet                                                                               0

    LEADER         AV           AV          AV           CD             AV             LEADER    AV/DRY    DRY      AV/DRY       DRY          DRY

    AVERAGE TEMPS PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS

    DRIER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED

    LATEST UPDATE - UPDATE 5

    Now it is time to reveal the latest 10 days of analysis from the 9 monthly CFS runs for Christmas 2020. The change from the previous update is shown in brackets next to the figures in the totals column.

    05/11/2020 to 14/11/2020 Data

    Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS          Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

    V Mild                                                                             0 (0)          V Dry                                                                             0 (-1)

    Mild               1             1              2             1                5 (0)          Dry                                 1              1              1             3 (-16)

    Average        4             4              4             5               17 (-5)        Average          9            5              6              6             26 (+10)

    Cold              5             5              3             4                17 (+7)      Wet                  1            4              3              3             11 (+6)

    V Cold                                          1                                1 (-2)        V Wet                                                                             0 (0)

    LEADER    AV/CD    AV/CD    AV/CD     AV/CD         AV/CD        LEADER          AV     AV/WET       AV            AV           AV

    Temperatures - Between update 4 and the latest update 5 we have seen quite a shift towards colder than average for Christmas Day with a +7 gain to the Cold option at the expense of Average and V Cold which is the downside of the shift here. Looking more like a chilly Christmas rather than an icy cold one with marginal snow at best but still better than a rainy Christmas.

    Precipitation - Between update 4 and the latest update 5 a very big shift has taken place in the direction of wetter. The drier options have both lost out this time around with V Dry losing its only hit and Dry losing a big 16 hits. Average and Wet have picked up the points that were in the drier options. This combined with the colder shift could mean an increased snow chance for Christmas Day now compared with the last update

    NOW FOR A NEW ADDITION TO MY CHRISTMAS UPDATES NOW THE ECM MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS NOW IN RANGE OF CHRISTMAS WEEK

    Here is the 500mb anomaly chart for the week that includes Christmas Day

    image.thumb.png.4c56dc91309b563782dbca3aa6ac0bf3.png

    Not particularly inspiring if you want a white Christmas, at least of the snowy variety. However with high pressure close by to the south then a frosty start to Christmas Day could be on the cards for England and Wales at least but Scotland and N Ireland more likely to be too windy or cloudy for this with the threat of weather fronts passing to the N of the UK

    Here are the 2m temperature anomaly charts and precipitation anomaly charts for the same week

    image.thumb.png.719c197c9dbab44859abdba319e4bc37.pngimage.thumb.png.cce5a49e669b123007e484d823076593.png

    Very much average then at this range so nothing inspiring and any precipitation likely to be just plain old rain so no white Christmas showing up at this range with the ECM at least

    The next Christmas update will be in 10 days time on 24/11/2020

    Wouldn't completely rule out chance of any wintry precipitation from such charts. Low pressure anchored to the NE could be pulling down a cold north westerly flow especially with heights elongated on a NW-SE trajectory. Indeed looks very polar maritime airstream to me.

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