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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    On 12/11/2020 at 00:27, SLEETY said:

    That's about the only time the met office forecast of HLB actually came off in 2010,other times when they forecast it the opposite happened. So don't get this idea they are always accurate when they forecast HLB during the winter months. They are WRONG most the time regarding long_range 

    A Computer doesn't actually make the weather remember

      they don’t get it right all the time how ever well predicting mild and Atlantic crap for the UK most of the time they are right and the November long-range update for the winter does not fill me with confidence most likely we will get a another crappy mild Atlantic crap for the next three months of winter just like the last few years. 🤢😬😒 then again living in the UK we shouldn’t expect any decent winter they are very rare for here sadly.

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    Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

    Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

    Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    19 hours ago, TSNWK said:

    Nice try.. but 1st WIO post was last week.. can we make October next year 😉

    I already posted that winter was over in October because the OFI was zero🙊

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Although tropical convection may be abnormally active (not actually that bad come December onwards) it is worth noting that there are two similar years..

    mjo10.thumb.gif.55f7fb907255b794073b0d1e0bc1ae4b.gifmjo17.thumb.gif.4def48bdc9bbd13bfcca55c6d359ed9c.gif

    Both years stayed abnormally active through winter as the La Nina weakened.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 hours ago, booferking said:

    Slider vile has commenced early this year :snowman-emoji:

    gfs-0-174.png

    gfs-1-180.png

    gfs-2-174.png

    There's nothing vile about those charts😜

    anyway....yeah! lol

    Untitled.thumb.png.700c4c1157f7498d0289e0c6ab459217.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Updated ECM Winter pressure maps still pointing to a blocked Atlantic in December ..

    Simon Lee has posted it on twitter.

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Updated ECM Winter pressure maps still pointing to a blocked Atlantic in December ..

    Simon Lee has posted it on twitter.

     

    Indeed along with ukmo and metio france🤞🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    ^^ 

    To me EC looks more inclined to offer genuine heights in the North Atlantic.

    But yes, no sign of a raging zonal setup at this juncture.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

     

    I assume this is what's being referred to. Quite a few straws in there for us to clutch!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes, updated ECM looks pretty good to me...

    It does  looking decent for December    interesting  the zonal winds are not a disaster either   even for January   looks like at this juncture  early winter is our best chance 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    despite global warming etc,we still  seem to be able to get severe cold like Nov, dec 2010 and  march 2013 where even here on South coast had 3ft snow drifts mid month then severe cold spell end of feb  2018 into March 2018 with coldest ever march max temps,recorded.

     

    So maybe more extreme both ends of the scale.

    Glosea bust already?😇☺️

    How can a DJF forecast be bust in November??  

     

    The bottom line here is that the seasonal forecast smooths the 3 months into an anomaly, if the heights are below average for Greenland then across the 12 week period its expected that there will not be any sustained blocking as this would produce a positive signal.

    The reason its smoothed is to avoid trying to pinpoint a cold spell within a fixed period of time.

    You keep going on about the UKMO seasonal being wrong & it cant tell all that time in advance but at a seasonal level you are just not correct.

     

    going back to 2009 Year UKMO seasonal gone with Greenland blocking = 2

    2009 & 2010

    Actual smoothed Anomalies > Remarkably accurate.

    5CE37F7E-DDDB-4012-9475-1BC701DA762B.thumb.jpeg.25c51bc658d113f2f085f865ee4d0608.jpegC02AB5EF-36D8-4A57-8308-1A303CA6FFC3.thumb.png.af66c4870920d2f6cb988be801ae1c37.png

    96088B80-37E2-4E34-91B5-931A7FE258DA.thumb.jpeg.d3cdb99a92e8dc21708f807d5fef48dc.jpeg437CCA06-EEE3-450C-B1B6-1CFBE1EA77F0.thumb.png.0ccb26de17f0770bfe91c63e10bbe368.png

     

    Look at 16 - Scuero High

    7FA620AC-8B8C-468B-ACA4-205301BD0CD4.thumb.jpeg.bcb693f5b146ea0a82896da0e336ff2e.jpeg

    9863AB7B-2C27-4BD4-B3D5-DFE64975867E.thumb.png.23b5d05bfbdad9ecf768bfb2f24b20e6.png

     

    Now positive NAO -

    2019 Awsome match

    351E09A5-006F-4472-BC27-111B0F8276FE.thumb.jpeg.d55d4b94e022e278bc0862bf889191ed.jpeg6BCC19AE-F29D-4DBC-A87B-D8C4019AAAD2.thumb.jpeg.42209edb12d18cea710e4be324904d5e.jpeg

    2015

    55D03EFB-1633-4B11-95A9-A82432F16F7A.thumb.jpeg.1dfd26e58a39c4b2ae783adbcaa60c4a.jpegA18827C8-BA22-4D8D-9443-392C351537D8.thumb.png.8252be3df3ac4441d5f7e66d91349faf.png

    Again remarkable.

     

    So the meto seasonal should be considered one of the leading most accurate forecasts out there. 

    Its great the end of November might bear some snow for the UK however thats not a huge input on the seasonals.

    S

    9863AB7B-2C27-4BD4-B3D5-DFE64975867E.png

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Updated ECM Winter pressure maps still pointing to a blocked Atlantic in December ..

    Simon Lee has posted it on twitter.

     

    And this is how they looked for November - based on October runs. With now half way through November almost, this can show how well (or not) they are faring for November.

    Should add someone on here mentioned about DWD being one of few models who didn't go for 18/19 winter blocking. Compared to October run for December, the most recent DWD run goes for stronger blocking in mid Atlantic and towards Greenland. 

     

     

    Edited by Bullseye
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    On a lighter note for December in isolation...

    🤔🤔🤔

    3E36B170-73C9-46C8-A781-7C9C4EC2E37C.thumb.png.3093ce54da44546352531be1900360a1.png

    97A63DA0-2148-47FE-AFDF-4C9F17DB3CCF.thumb.png.bec3d888edd08e50442d886691bef9c6.png

    A few tumblers in there...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    On a lighter note for December in isolation...

    🤔🤔🤔

    3E36B170-73C9-46C8-A781-7C9C4EC2E37C.thumb.png.3093ce54da44546352531be1900360a1.png

    97A63DA0-2148-47FE-AFDF-4C9F17DB3CCF.thumb.png.bec3d888edd08e50442d886691bef9c6.png

    A few tumblers in there...

     

    How do you see or think December may pan out Steve given the decent ukmo outlook on today's update 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

    Well this wouldn't be a bad start at all for winter season in Central Europe.

    image.thumb.png.2874e70b33f458c33bc3d7127b57b171.png

     

     

    Great for skiing esp⛷️

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Liking the look of the EC seasonal. Keeps the core of low heights to the E of Greenland even through Jan and Feb. This means we would never be out of the game for surprise snow events e.g snow on N flank of runners etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Good points about seasonal model profiles, these will always show an average out picture, give you a general flavour, but not enough to say what conditions would be from one week to the next. You could for example have 3 weeks with a zonal west-east flow and a week with a northerly flow, the average skewed to the zonal west-east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
    1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

    overview_20201113_12_192.jpg

    😉

    Don't let @Day 10 see that chart🤣

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Updated ECM Winter pressure maps still pointing to a blocked Atlantic in December ..

    Simon Lee has posted it on twitter.

     

     

    5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    ^^ 

    To me EC looks more inclined to offer genuine heights in the North Atlantic.

    But yes, no sign of a raging zonal setup at this juncture.

     

    4 hours ago, weirpig said:

    It does  looking decent for December    interesting  the zonal winds are not a disaster either   even for January   looks like at this juncture  early winter is our best chance 

    Maybe the perfect reaction to the La Nina seemingly shifting weaker again and more EP based again recently

    Compare the La Nina on the latest anomaly chart with the one from a couple of weeks back

    Nov 1st                                                       Latest

    image.thumb.png.214611e07bf98cfe2ecbb76e699b979d.pngimage.thumb.png.e3d7df7ce91d848862b0a8cbec6f8887.png

    That is what we want to see, coming back from the brink of a possible strong La Nina and curtains for winter event. Now it is more weak/moderate again so winter is back on again

    Now which of these Nina types do you think best fits the latest pattern

    image.thumb.png.e3d7df7ce91d848862b0a8cbec6f8887.png

    CP La Nina                                                 Mixed La Nina                                         EP La Nina

    Pattern-CP-LaNina.thumb.jpg.fbf2c4a255e99d09c2ba9879c04507d2.jpg581716806_Pattern-mixed-typeLaNina.thumb.jpg.806401eb468876767d0b64203a187ccf.jpgPattern-EP-LaNina.thumb.jpg.f24a17fa9c4939670f500cd1f1a1a6a3.jpg

    Hope the precipitation forecast for 21st November comes off, right in the firing line for that snow event in Scunthorpe

    image.thumb.png.2f912f9397b076d11adef2f367bb10c8.png

    Getting off to an early start to winter if that comes off

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Those model updates for winter show some promise for dec but still little sign of any low euro pressure anoms which will generally make it a struggle for a snowy set up 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    image.thumb.png.6c6a2f5fd6c28b3db61e839e41d895ab.png

    The more I browse and the more I stare at the current data and projected impacts the more I find myself looking to an SSW to deliver the goods (again). I still think it will start cool, maybe chilly in early December, but everything is lining up for +NAO influence for the most part after that. Nina too strong...QBO in the wrong phase...north pacific remaining too warm. 

    The forecast chart above is by no means catastrophic for SSW hopes. A strong but relatively withdrawn north pacific high can allow low pressures to zip through the aleutians and on to the rockies, and a sceuro high remains a building block for vertical warming in Russia, offering chances for a spanner in the spokes wave 2 moment.

    We will see. I think, once the first half of December has passed, we may need a great deal of patience this season............

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    image.thumb.png.6c6a2f5fd6c28b3db61e839e41d895ab.png

    The more I browse and the more I stare at the current data and projected impacts the more I find myself looking to an SSW to deliver the goods (again). I still think it will start cool, maybe chilly in early December, but everything is lining up for +NAO influence for the most part after that. Nina too strong...QBO in the wrong phase...north pacific remaining too warm. 

    The forecast chart above is by no means catastrophic for SSW hopes. A strong but relatively withdrawn north pacific high can allow low pressures to zip through the aleutians and on to the rockies, and a sceuro high remains a building block for vertical warming in Russia, offering chances for a spanner in the spokes wave 2 moment.

    We will see. I think, once the first half of December has passed, we may need a great deal of patience this season............

    Look again quite a warm up in last 2 weeks In 3.4 region a strong Niña event is not expected this winter will be weak-moderate. The QBO is confusing to me, but easterlies have strengthened in lower atmosphere which is most important. Things look much more promising than last few to me. There wasn’t enough drivers. 

    B6E8EEFB-08E7-45F3-B3A0-A752B1878178.thumb.png.3032899eece03166bca47061c9701717.png

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