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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

    Fair to say that quite a bit of pessimism has come about in last 48 hours in relation to chances of a cold winter for the UK.AS others have said the models don’t predict a pretty picture in this respect but really apart from November 2010 which picked up the infamous late november to late December cold spell very few cold spells in the last 10 years have been picked up a long way in advance so let’s just see where we pan out by late November shall we?When all said and done we live in the UK and not Canada so if we get just one cold spell say of 5-7 days in the whole 3 months of winter then so be it-if we get more than that then see it as a bonus.I share the frustrations of many on here that would love another December 2010 or March 2013 but we have to be realistic that the chances of them are slim.

    in what has been an incredibly tough year for everyone let’s just get some perspective and the weather will do what it wants to do but remember it is just the weather!!

    Though, in some ways it could be realism?

    I'm ancient enough to recall the Classic winter of 1963... though, in 57-years' since (apart from the odd week or month here and there) I've never seen anything-else quite like it. So, when you look at the statistics from the severe winters perspective outwards (as opposed to starting with either ENSO or Solar activity?) there're actually very little data to go by?

    IMO, if anyone out there, has found a way of accurately forecasting upcoming seasons (weeks, months in advance) said individual would be a millionaire!😃

     

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    Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

    Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

    Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    52 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Some very mild winters still had some potent cold spells. Ridiculous to think the whole winter will play-out exactly as forecast for THREE WHOLE MONTHS

    It's true that a mild or average Winter doesn't rule out any good snow episodes within it. Though admittedly they're less likely to be frequent and especially long lasting. 

    But just thinking of some examples. 

    2001/02 had a good snowy spell here just after Christmas going into the start of the New Year.

    2006/07 had a good short lived nationwide snowy spell in early February.

    2011/12 had a good episode for some parts in late Jan and or early Feb (can't remember exactly when). It didn't amount to much here to be honest but other parts of lowland England did well from it based on reports.

    2014/15 wasn't very memorable here for snow apart from some wet snow on Boxing Day and the odd early morning dusting later on. I'm under the impression it was a bit better further north though?

    2017/18 was only average overall (this would be excluding March), but we had a couple of ok to very good snowfalls in December here in the Midlands.

    2018/19 had a good short lived snowy spell which gave a good covering to parts of south in late Jan or early Feb if I remember rightly.

    So as you can see even non spectacular Winters still have the potential to deliver some snowy goodness either locally or nationally even. 

    Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    37 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    spacer.png GEM 12z Jet Stream for 21st Nov

     

    GEM 12 z at 240hrs  suggests that the Jet Stream dives South.  That would bring some rather cold air to our shores. Will be interesting to see the ECM day 10 chart shortly to see if it shows something similar

    Yes, I'm hoping with coming out of solar min this will be the saving grace this coming winter. A southerly tracking jet with us on the cold side at times.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    5 minutes ago, joggs said:

    Yes, I'm hoping with coming out of solar min this will be the saving grace this coming winter. A southerly tracking jet with us on the cold side at times.

    Does a solar minimum force the jet south 🤔 I know there is some evidence that it causes a slower jet...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Does a solar minimum force the jet south 🤔 I know there is some evidence that it causes a slower jet...

    Mayby, yes; mabe no... No-one knows for sure...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Mayby, yes; mabe no... No-one knows for sure...

    It causes a more meandered jet - that's ON AVERAGE though, its still entirely possible to have a solar min winter with 130mm per month of atlantic garbage and mild temps.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Good evening.

    Here once again is the eagerly updated Met office seasonal model from earlier today.

    Its sadly as about as bad as it gets with reduced amplitude of any block to the west & an increasingly strong PV south of Greenland > much the same as 2019.

    Gutted as all the years generally met office have gone for strong GH blocking its occured & all general zonal ones have landed.

    87F55FCD-10B1-48E2-AF0D-32BFA13DF830.thumb.jpeg.22aac328506657669012dadd352419e6.jpeg96FD196D-4CB1-41E1-8923-746EBB45BA8E.thumb.jpeg.86cdabbafd0ae50939f767f85384a9e4.jpeg

     

    As a result a significantly cold winter based on this & the current shape of the PV as well as the speed of the zonal wind depicted by the ECM is probably below 20%

    E1A3A88A-28DD-4EED-8FDE-6EEF6000B422.thumb.jpeg.aa4ea9c80f36c79f28673eec32602728.jpeg

    So we are relying on

    - An unexpected SSW not seen by glosea

    - A block to the NE over Scandi that can live in the flow & let the jet circulate over the pole.

    😣

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It causes a more meandered jet - that's ON AVERAGE though, its still entirely possible to have a solar min winter with 130mm per month of atlantic garbage and mild temps.

    As I said... maybe it does; maybe it doesn't?

    PS: @feb1991blizzard... I'm nae trying to be snotty; but, as far as I'm concerned, any theory that postulates Solar min = cold winters, also has to explain 1947: the snowiest (and 2nd coldest?) winter of the 20th Century occurring at Solar max...?

    image.png

    image.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Good evening.

    Here once again is the eagerly updated Met office seasonal model from earlier today.

    Its sadly as about as bad as it gets with reduced amplitude of any block to the west & an increasingly strong PV south of Greenland > much the same as 2019.

    Gutted as all the years generally met office have gone for strong GH blocking its occured & all general zonal ones have landed.

    87F55FCD-10B1-48E2-AF0D-32BFA13DF830.thumb.jpeg.22aac328506657669012dadd352419e6.jpeg96FD196D-4CB1-41E1-8923-746EBB45BA8E.thumb.jpeg.86cdabbafd0ae50939f767f85384a9e4.jpeg

     

    As a result a significantly cold winter based on this & the current shape of the PV as well as the speed of the zonal wind depicted by the ECM is probably below 20%

    E1A3A88A-28DD-4EED-8FDE-6EEF6000B422.thumb.jpeg.aa4ea9c80f36c79f28673eec32602728.jpeg

    So we are relying on

    - An unexpected SSW not seen by glosea

    - A block to the NE over Scandi that can live in the flow & let the jet circulate over the pole.

    😣

    To be honest Steve  it would still be quite possible to get a 2 week cold and snowy spell even in that set up. which most people on here would be more than happy with.  yes I would love another 2009/10 or Nov/Dec 2010 but those are exceptions so if we could squeeze a  fortnight of cold/snowy weather I would be more than happy.  Plus as you say we have the chance of an SSW or a Scandi block to sit in the flow. and of course there is always the possibility that GLOSEA has simply over-egged the pudding. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I would imagine Glosea is seeing a strong Nina for the Winter period....

    Let's see what EC comes up with....

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    4 hours ago, sundog said:

    Was that not the winter before last?

    When it comes to predicting a cold winter glosea doesn't seem to be as accurate.

    However when it forecasts a mild one its often fairly accurate on that score.

    Correct!...2018/19 glosea was not so accurate - winter 2018/19 was disappointing though some in central southern England did see some snow but considering that a number of seasonal models were predicting northern blocking it was generally a fail.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Correct!...2018/19 glosea was not so accurate - winter 2018/19 was disappointing though some in central southern England did see some snow but considering that a number of seasonal models were predicting northern blocking it was generally a fail.

    But even that's about a million times better than the CFS!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Not sure if these have been posted already but here are the ECM Seasonal Temperature (T2m) Anomalies issued on 01/11.

    December: 

    5F4C9C05-F9E4-443E-85AF-22F5F3790A25.thumb.png.c7b385f77feb4e2080f51497cbd508fa.png


    January:

    22CFC483-CF56-4716-A553-49B2479C25CC.thumb.png.7df37707a56676f5523eb8d39ca3cf57.png
     

    February:

    2733D830-3376-4B35-91E0-F6AAA9B425F8.thumb.png.ef9ed00331197e926d68b921b11f357f.png


    With regards to the rest of November it is basically mild all the way - slightly above to average in the final week. (Good to see the temperatures dropping)

    During the first two weeks of December increasing signal for our first wintry blast from the NW/N - wintry showers low levels/snow over the mountains at some stage! Three questions are...will this be reserved for NW UK? Will this be a one/two day toppler and most important...will any of these charts/what I have described actually become reality!? 😄

    It is approaching that exciting time - Winter is just around the corner now! I like to just take it each day/week at a time - silly to write off any season of the year before it has even started. 
     

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Dec looks best bet, but none of the charts above are much use for low lying Southern Britain...

    Of course Dec would be decent for elevated NW Britain. .

    Things may look different in a months time anyway....

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Correct!...2018/19 glosea was not so accurate - winter 2018/19 was disappointing though some in central southern England did see some snow but considering that a number of seasonal models were predicting northern blocking it was generally a fail.

    If I remember rightly wasn't it supposed to be cold from December or at least early January, which kept on getting pushed back further and further, watering down to the short lived cold snap in late January. This was then followed by very mild to practically warm temps in February 😆. You couldn't make it up really. 

    That's a point though, who saw that coming in January. 

    At least it's only November. We've got up to and including March to get some snow this Winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, based on the wildly inaccurate forecasts of previous years, I'll stick with my original prognosis: this winter will either be front-loaded, back-loaded, spring-loaded or unloaded... And, only time will tell!:drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham

    Can I offer anyone a couple of straws to clutch at? 🙂

    1) Last week La Niña was heading into strong territory in 3.4 region (around -1.7 / -1.8c if I remember). Today's update has it at -1.225.

    2) The latest NASA update now has the QBO in the east descending phase.

    Every little helps....

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    for the UK it is almost impossible to pick out a cold winter at this stage..there are too many factors to consider none more than Geography a small island on the edge of a warm ocean means mild is going to happen 92/100..what causes a cold winter can be a thousand different things coming together..trying to count on 1 or 2 or even 10 things might be off set by another 10 things...i see people hanging their hat on La Nina or not La Nina ..solar minimum, Siberian snow cover,  N. Atlantic ssts in May, phases of the moon, pattern matching, sea ice coverage, SSWs etc etc and then try and pick out a likely pattern for a minute portion of the NH and bear in mind its global weather system at work.

    For me ENSO seems to very hit and miss for the UK due to being on the other side of the globe..even here i can site 2 examples of the ENSO being a flop in just the last 10 years here..2011/12 was a strong La Nina which should cause a cold snowy winter but was the third mildest on record and relatively snow free...2018/19 weak El Nino should result in an above normal winter season but we had the coldest Sept on record followed by the third coldest February on record all this on the door step of the Pacific..now you try and figure out what is going to happen in the UK some 5000 miles away? There seems to be both strong El Nino and La Nina winters that have been cold and snowy and vice versa...Siberian snow cover seems to me to be a bust every year..SSW to me is like throwing a dice where the cold spills out in the NH is anyone guess and again its probably a 1in 6 chance of heading the UK's way..don't even get me going on analogues and pattern matching..i often watch Gavs weather videos where he picks out a CET for a month or rainfall for a month and looks ahead 6 months ..thats like me looking at temps and rainfall for Edmonton and trying to match the analogues across the NH for the next 6 months based on that..often i look at the matches on those videos and think they look a good match for Europe..but they are way of the mark for the rest of the NH ..So good luck with that.

    Anyway even super computers cant predict what's going to happen so really everything should be taken with a pinch of salt and just a bit of fun really

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    9 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    If I remember rightly wasn't it supposed to be cold from December or at least early January, which kept on getting pushed back further and further, watering down to the short lived cold snap in late January. This was then followed by very mild to practically warm temps in February 😆. You couldn't make it up really. 

    Yes it was the famed winter for following the MetO 30 day (or whatever it was updates which continually had wintryness in the wording)...and in reality only near the end of January did the usually snow starved area of Southern England get some, most other parts only had a brief slushy dusting (if there is such a thing). As for that ensued mild February...I dared mention the word turning mild after viewing day 9/10 on the ECM (against the MetO updates) in late January and got absolutely hounded in the MAD thread as the majority were expecting the opposite. 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    for the UK it is almost impossible to pick out a cold winter at this stage..there are too many factors to consider none more than Geography a small island on the edge of a warm ocean means mild is going to happen 92/100..what causes a cold winter can be a thousand different things coming together..trying to count on 1 or 2 or even 10 things might be off set by another 10 things...i see people hanging their hat on La Nina or not La Nina ..solar minimum, Siberian snow cover,  N. Atlantic ssts in May, phases of the moon, pattern matching, sea ice coverage, SSWs etc etc and then try and pick out a likely pattern for a minute portion of the NH and bear in mind its global weather system at work.

    For me ENSO seems to very hit and miss for the UK due to being on the other side of the globe..even here i can site 2 examples of the ENSO being a flop in just the last 10 years here..2011/12 was a strong La Nina which should cause a cold snowy winter but was the third mildest on record and relatively snow free...2018/19 weak El Nino should result in an above normal winter season but we had the coldest Sept on record followed by the third coldest February on record all this on the door step of the Pacific..now you try and figure out what is going to happen in the UK some 5000 miles away? There seems to be both strong El Nino and La Nina winters that have been cold and snowy and vice versa...Siberian snow cover seems to me to be a bust every year..SSW to me is like throwing a dice where the cold spills out in the NH is anyone guess and again its probably a 1in 6 chance of heading the UK's way..don't even get me going on analogues and pattern matching..i often watch Gavs weather videos where he picks out a CET for a month or rainfall for a month and looks ahead 6 months ..thats like me looking at temps and rainfall for Edmonton and trying to match the analogues across the NH for the next 6 months based on that..often i look at the matches on those videos and think they look a good match for Europe..but they are way of the mark for the rest of the NH ..So good luck with that.

    Anyway even super computers cant predict what's going to happen so really everything should be taken with a pinch of salt and just a bit of fun really

    Perhaps so but look at the meto seasonal for 2009 & 2010 when we had huge blocking forecast to the Nw > which then went onto deliver...

    ED793381-804D-4C78-9C1D-589BC5E7FDD0.thumb.jpeg.ba0622002f97dfc31ca5ef0f01f9e988.jpegBA08D590-2483-4100-87DE-17FC67E8C050.thumb.jpeg.aa68fb9263ef8d7568aaf44ae0cf0b2d.jpeg

     

    So with todays update it would seem likelihood deminished...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    image.thumb.png.3fd5a7fcd5344d540e660bcb68010922.png

     

    Not fantastic but the best CFS chart i have seen for a winter month at this range for a long while.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather
  • Location: West Midlands

    Apart from the odd day here and there, I think that this autumn as a whole has been one of the most (if not the most) monotonous during my lifetime due to its lack of any interesting weather as well as a lack of temperature differences between day and night. With the exception of a couple of times, I can't recall any particularly cold nights and it looks as if it's going to be the same for the next 7 or so days. Here's hoping that the last week of November and especially December will be much better. A decent winter would be great. I shall be staying tuned in this thread as well as the models one! 😁

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Looking at the GLOSEA it appears we could see some decently stormy periods with a tight pressure gradient at times. Ripe scenario for 'runners' in the flow.

    It also doesn't preclude the occasional polar NW'ly, but in the main, it's pretty bad for S UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    That's about the only time the met office forecast of HLB actually came off in 2010,other times when they forecast it the opposite happened. So don't get this idea they are always accurate when they forecast HLB during the winter months. They are WRONG most the time regarding long_range 

    A Computer doesn't actually make the weather remember

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