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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I still think there's plenty of time for things to turn much colder. My prediction still stands, that we will see the mild weather dominating until Christmas time, before a change to much colder weather between Christmas, into the early part of 2021.

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    Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

    Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

    Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    This morning's glosea run is disappointing. If the MetO is correct we are in for a predominantly +NAO winter. We will wait and see if a Nina ridge can give anything of interest in December, and then we may need to hope for an SSW creating impacts outside the forecast envelope. This happened of course in 2018 - all things are possible really in the world of weather.....though I would have liked to see better anomaly predictions from glosea. The Met has become irritatingly accurate.

    image.thumb.png.cd411768460bba52f1764b832ab128df.png

    Yep.. disappointing for coldies. Indicates a tendency for high pressure to the south and east for DJF

    Showing my age here but who remembers a member who accurately and annoying wrote of   chunks of winter based on the pressure in Bern being above something like 1020.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    44 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    I think it's safe to say it's game over. A strong CB la Nina.

    2cat_20201101_sst_months24_global_deter_public.png

    Never seems to fall for UK does it. Who knows maybe it will change🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    So will this winter complete the trilogy of pure rubbish winters.  2018/19, 2019/20 and 2020/21??

    Like the late 80s trilogy and late 90s trilogy. 

    Edited by sundog
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    See a lot of glasses in here nearing empty.. that was quick 🥴 we have just seen again where a certain pattern looked the likely outcome (colder conditions) then for whatever reason that’s not quite went to plan but again just shows how quickly things can change, that also goes for things changing to a colder pattern as I’ve said in the past if u look at the charts even a few weeks prior to some of our cold spells u probably wouldn’t have seen them coming yet people can somehow write off the entire winter each year without fail 🔮 personally I prefer to see how things develop as we go through each of the winter months, all this writing off would be like going fishing and believing you are not going to catch anything, no point even casting your line 🎣 ️ 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    See a lot of glasses in here nearing empty.. that was quick 🥴 we have just seen again where a certain pattern looked the likely outcome (colder conditions) then for whatever reason that’s not quite went to plan but again just shows how quickly things can change, that also goes for things changing to a colder pattern as I’ve said in the past if u look at the charts even a few weeks prior to some of our cold spells u probably wouldn’t have seen them coming yet people can somehow write off the entire winter each year without fail 🔮 personally I prefer to see how things develop as we go through each of the winter months, all this writing off would be like going fishing and believing you are not going to catch anything, no point even casting your line 🎣 ️ 

    Mine have always been this way! image.png.93cb30b04360c25be2a2027e08e80112.png👀

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Maybe their forecast for DJF will be as big as fail as last year when they went for HLB and complete opposite happened throughout the winter.

    And they kept forecasting cold weather would arrive  throughout their shorter-range forecasts too

    So big fail from the Met office last Winter.

    Basically don't take too much notice of any long range seasonal forecasts,

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Maybe their forecast for DJF will be as big as fail as last year when they went for HLB and complete opposite happened throughout the winter.

    And they kept forecasting cold weather would arrive  throughout their shorter-range forecasts too

    So big fail from the Met office last Winter.

    Basically don't take too much notice of any long range seasonal forecasts,

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Yes, but please remember the law of Sod!

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    I think it's safe to say it's game over. A strong CB la Nina.

    2cat_20201101_sst_months24_global_deter_public.png

    with a CB strong La Nina and a warm northern pacific..  it could be a brutal winter here or super mild.. there will be no in-between.. odds favour a very cold snowy winter right now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

    with a CB strong La Nina and a warm northern pacific..  it could be a brutal winter here or super mild.. there will be no in-between.. odds favour a very cold snowy winter right now 

    Yes yes yes yes yes. But in all seriousness i don't like the inbetweens and would rather have a strong winter forecast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    9 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

    Yes yes yes yes yes. But in all seriousness i don't like the inbetweens and would rather have a strong winter forecast. 

    Cheeky Monkey lives in Canada.

    There's zero chance of a brutal Winter on these shores.

    Super mild though. You bet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Just now, mountain shadow said:

    Cheeky Monkey lives in Canada.

    There's zero chance of a brutal Winter on these shores.

    Super mild though. You bet.

    Oh

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
    59 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Maybe their forecast for DJF will be as big as fail as last year when they went for HLB and complete opposite happened throughout the winter.

    And they kept forecasting cold weather would arrive  throughout their shorter-range forecasts too

    So big fail from the Met office last Winter.

    Basically don't take too much notice of any long range seasonal forecasts,

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Was that not the winter before last?

    When it comes to predicting a cold winter glosea doesn't seem to be as accurate.

    However when it forecasts a mild one its often fairly accurate on that score.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Coldies need to hold their nerve here.

    While ENSO looks unfavourable and Glosea is not pretty viewing it is not a death knell for cold episodes for the UK...

    Let's see where we are in another 2 or 3 weeks time...

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Coldies need to hold their nerve here.

    While ENSO looks unfavourable and Glosea is not pretty viewing it is not a death knell for cold episodes for the UK...

    Let's see where we are in another 2 or 3 weeks time...

    Pretty standard practise every year now but I guess anything is possible 😐

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    That Glosea run is a shocker

    However, looking through some of the historic forecasts in Novembers, the cold winter of 12-13 (and very cold March) wasn't really called in November 2012. The cold March wasn't really convincingly called until Feb 2013. The cool Jan 2013 was missed as far as I can interpret the data

    November 2009 didn't seem to really get that forecast correct.

    2010 it did call. But it was forecasting for the cold to last longer than just the December and we all know it never returned to lowland England after 28 Dec

    November 2013 it didn't predict the rain that fell that winter either, going for below normal precipitation when we ended up with one of the wettest winters on record (esp Jan and Feb and, even in December 2013's and January 2014's forecast, it was still going for below normal precipitation and above normal pressure). 

    Feb 2018 wasn't well-forecast either

    So, let's not write things off just yet. It's not infallible and, besides, it could be hiding dramatic extremes. December could come in freezing and Jan/Feb very mild or Dec/Feb very warm and Jan freezing. You get the picture. But Glosea has to be treated seriously. 

    Right, I'm off to see if I can find some more straws to clutch

    image.thumb.png.98dcaca1eff5337a6f8e585fda5196df.png

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, LRD said:

    That Glosea run is a shocker

    However, looking through some of the historic forecasts in Novembers, the cold winter of 12-13 (and very cold March) wasn't really called in November 2012. The cold March wasn't really convincingly called until Feb 2013. The cool Jan 2013 was missed as far as I can interpret the data

    November 2009 didn't seem to really get that forecast correct.

    2010 it did call but even then it was only the December that was poor

    November 2013 it didn't predict the rain that fell that winter either, going for below normal precipitation when we ended up with one of the wettest winters on record (esp Jan and Feb and, even in December's forecast, it was going for below normal precipitation and above normal pressure)

    Feb 2018 wasn't well-forecast either

    So, let's not write things off just yet. It's not infallible and, besides, it could be hiding dramatic extremes. December could come in freezing and Jan/Feb very mild or Dec/Feb very warm and Jan freezing. You get the picture. But Glosea has to be treated seriously. 

    Right, I'm off to see if I can find some more straws to clutch

    image.thumb.png.98dcaca1eff5337a6f8e585fda5196df.png

    Some good points there tbh. Has for the straws I buy in bulk, gets me threw to march 👀👀👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    Didn't the met office also call a cold Winter for 2016/17 and thinking even further back, 2007/08?. 

    Just mentioning to highlight how even if they were predicting a cold Winter this year, it couldn't be taken as a done deal. Hopefully this could also apply for a mild prediction, even if the law of averages are always more in a mild Winters favour. 🤷‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Some very mild winters still had some potent cold spells. Ridiculous to think the whole winter will play-out exactly as forecast for THREE WHOLE MONTHS

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Fair to say that quite a bit of pessimism has come about in last 48 hours in relation to chances of a cold winter for the UK.AS others have said the models don’t predict a pretty picture in this respect but really apart from November 2010 which picked up the infamous late november to late December cold spell very few cold spells in the last 10 years have been picked up a long way in advance so let’s just see where we pan out by late November shall we?When all said and done we live in the UK and not Canada so if we get just one cold spell say of 5-7 days in the whole 3 months of winter then so be it-if we get more than that then see it as a bonus.I share the frustrations of many on here that would love another December 2010 or March 2013 but we have to be realistic that the chances of them are slim.

    in what has been an incredibly tough year for everyone let’s just get some perspective and the weather will do what it wants to do but remember it is just the weather!!

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