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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It's worth saying that the abnormal pattern is currently the result of tropical convection causing neutral to positive GLAAM however this is actually no bad thing if it repeats in late winter (we saw May-August-November so that may suggest February) as by that point the thermal gradient has decreased. It is also worth noting that peaks in angular momentum are transitory so December and January may well proceed on a more normal basis. 

    It is however notable in that no first year -1> Nina has produced a November warmer than 7.7C in the last 70 years.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

    Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

    Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    18 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    In the top analogue indicated (2004-05) I recall it was turning quite cold at times in late Feb 2005 (that's when I first joined Net-weather). This was by no means a memorable cold spell but there was a bit of frost and snow with it. 

    Thanks Roger.  The February/March 2005 cold spell was produced from some great synoptics but due to the continent being so mild, it was somewhat watered down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    41 minutes ago, Don said:

    Thanks Roger.  The February/March 2005 cold spell was produced from some great synoptics but due to the continent being so mild, it was somewhat watered down.

    Plus we narrowly missed a potentially decent cold spell in the final third of January 2005 too.

    archives-2005-1-24-12-0.png archives-2005-1-24-12-1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Plus we narrowly missed a potentially decent cold spell in the final third of January 2005 too.

    archives-2005-1-24-12-0.png archives-2005-1-24-12-1.png

    Yes, I think the metoffice were toying with that idea in their extended outlook at the time?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    24 minutes ago, Don said:

    Yes, I think the metoffice were toying with that idea in their extended outlook at the time?

    That detail I can’t remember. It was just amazing how the Atlantic just died a death just before and so set the tome for more frequent colder spells thereafter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    Proof why never to trust long range models if they show -NAO. Unfortunately a lot of profesionals went with a cool November period in Europe and at least mid Atlantic ridge.What we are receiving is a standard pattern that is default since 2013/14. I ve checked my location EPS mean that is reaching to now last week of November and its at +1 at 850hPa @ 650asl. never below that! So anti Nina month surely one MJO phase 8 can not make one month be so anti Nina. 

    ElA5nAXXgAAzbw1.jpeg

    nao.sprd2 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    9 hours ago, MP-R said:

    Plus we narrowly missed a potentially decent cold spell in the final third of January 2005 too.

    archives-2005-1-24-12-0.png archives-2005-1-24-12-1.png

    Jan 06 was probably one of the greatest cold spells that never was (the high actually beat the Atlantic a few days later but sunk). 

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    48 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Jan 06 was probably one of the greatest cold spells that never was (the high actually beat the Atlantic a few days later but sunk). 

    spacer.png

    Oh yes for sure. At least we generated our own cold though so it was at least seasonal, if not anything notable. Another winter where anything from the east was a bit meh, then it got saucy when winds turned northerly. The easterly in that Feb was even lower key than 2005.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Won't be long until The Met Office drop their references to a colder end to November/start to December.

    The Sceuro High already looks like it's setting up shop for a long while.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    8 hours ago, jules216 said:

    Proof why never to trust long range models if they show -NAO. Unfortunately a lot of profesionals went with a cool November period in Europe and at least mid Atlantic ridge.What we are receiving is a standard pattern that is default since 2013/14. I ve checked my location EPS mean that is reaching to now last week of November and its at +1 at 850hPa @ 650asl. never below that! So anti Nina month surely one MJO phase 8 can not make one month be so anti Nina. 

    ElA5nAXXgAAzbw1.jpeg

    nao.sprd2 (1).gif

    Near neutral NAO is a good signal for November since it is traditionally a +NAO month on average

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    45 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Near neutral NAO is a good signal for November since it is traditionally a +NAO month on average

    If it is often a positive NAO, than the average will be adjust?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
    7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Jan 06 was probably one of the greatest cold spells that never was (the high actually beat the Atlantic a few days later but sunk). 

    spacer.png

    That was a real heartbreaker. I remember seeing the forecast for places like Warsaw and Berlin and how quickly the temperature bombed as the frigid air marched westward - only for it to sink south (it was probably pretty epic in Slovakia but I wasn't here then).

    January 2017 was probably even worse - lying snow in Benidorm while most of the UK and Ireland was in double digits. At least I got to spend the second half of the month here, where it was real brass monkeys. 

    Edited by AderynCoch
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    10 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    Won't be long until The Met Office drop their references to a colder end to November/start to December.

    The Sceuro High already looks like it's setting up shop for a long while.

    Wouldn,t be quite so sure about that MS. 12Z GFS shows a good number of runs heading sub -5 right at the end which would tie quite nicely with the Meto outlook,  as ever we shall see but somthing to keep an eye on I think

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    Interesting to see a lobe of the polar vortex having a real go of setting up over Alaska from mid November onwards..looks a particularly snowy run for my neck of the woods esp later on 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire

    UK winter 2020/21 will probably be similar to the last three winters. Snow mostly confined to the mountains, coldest temperature around -12C.

    Thats my guess anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
    6 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

    When do netweather release there winter forecast 

    I think its normally early December not sure who is doing it this year recent years has either been Stuart or Nick.

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Not sure where this "get the wind rain and mild out of the way" stance comes from in regard to getting a decent winter? It's not like it has a memory or menopausal is it. It Dosnt balance it self out "ie penalties and liuck in football". What is this all about 🙄🙄🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    47 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

    When do netweather release there winter forecast 

    This year it’ll be March 1st 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It's Thundery Wintry Showers nowadays.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    It would be nice to hear from @Glacier Point , @chionomaniac and @lorenzo about the upcoming winter,i know GP doesn't post nowadays but he does pop in at times during the winter months or run up to. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    As expected the Met office have ditched the mention of colder drier weather in the extended with mild and wet South Westerlies now likely,

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
    17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    As expected the Met office have ditched the mention of colder drier weather in the extended with mild and wet South Westerlies now likely,

    I’ve just read the extended Met Office forecast to the 8th December and it says, milder at first before possibly turning colder than average with an increased risk of frost and wintry precipitation into December, notably northern high ground. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    This morning's glosea run is disappointing. If the MetO is correct we are in for a predominantly +NAO winter. We will wait and see if a Nina ridge can give anything of interest in December, and then we may need to hope for an SSW creating impacts outside the forecast envelope. This happened of course in 2018 - all things are possible really in the world of weather.....though I would have liked to see better anomaly predictions from glosea. The Met has become irritatingly accurate.

    image.thumb.png.cd411768460bba52f1764b832ab128df.png

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    If glosea is predicting a mostly + nao winter that's certainly not good news. 😒.

    Prepare for the worst ,hope for the best. 14c dull and gloomy  and wet outside as I type, I hope this muck isn't an omen of what's to come over the next few months. 

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