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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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It's worth saying that the abnormal pattern is currently the result of tropical convection causing neutral to positive GLAAM however this is actually no bad thing if it repeats in late winter (we saw May-August-November so that may suggest February) as by that point the thermal gradient has decreased. It is also worth noting that peaks in angular momentum are transitory so December and January may well proceed on a more normal basis. 

It is however notable in that no first year -1> Nina has produced a November warmer than 7.7C in the last 70 years.

Edited by summer blizzard
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18 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

In the top analogue indicated (2004-05) I recall it was turning quite cold at times in late Feb 2005 (that's when I first joined Net-weather). This was by no means a memorable cold spell but there was a bit of frost and snow with it. 

Thanks Roger.  The February/March 2005 cold spell was produced from some great synoptics but due to the continent being so mild, it was somewhat watered down.

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41 minutes ago, Don said:

Thanks Roger.  The February/March 2005 cold spell was produced from some great synoptics but due to the continent being so mild, it was somewhat watered down.

Plus we narrowly missed a potentially decent cold spell in the final third of January 2005 too.

archives-2005-1-24-12-0.png archives-2005-1-24-12-1.png

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6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Plus we narrowly missed a potentially decent cold spell in the final third of January 2005 too.

archives-2005-1-24-12-0.png archives-2005-1-24-12-1.png

Yes, I think the metoffice were toying with that idea in their extended outlook at the time?

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24 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I think the metoffice were toying with that idea in their extended outlook at the time?

That detail I can’t remember. It was just amazing how the Atlantic just died a death just before and so set the tome for more frequent colder spells thereafter. 

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Proof why never to trust long range models if they show -NAO. Unfortunately a lot of profesionals went with a cool November period in Europe and at least mid Atlantic ridge.What we are receiving is a standard pattern that is default since 2013/14. I ve checked my location EPS mean that is reaching to now last week of November and its at +1 at 850hPa @ 650asl. never below that! So anti Nina month surely one MJO phase 8 can not make one month be so anti Nina. 

ElA5nAXXgAAzbw1.jpeg

nao.sprd2 (1).gif

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9 hours ago, MP-R said:

Plus we narrowly missed a potentially decent cold spell in the final third of January 2005 too.

archives-2005-1-24-12-0.png archives-2005-1-24-12-1.png

Jan 06 was probably one of the greatest cold spells that never was (the high actually beat the Atlantic a few days later but sunk). 

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48 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Jan 06 was probably one of the greatest cold spells that never was (the high actually beat the Atlantic a few days later but sunk). 

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Oh yes for sure. At least we generated our own cold though so it was at least seasonal, if not anything notable. Another winter where anything from the east was a bit meh, then it got saucy when winds turned northerly. The easterly in that Feb was even lower key than 2005.

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8 hours ago, jules216 said:

Proof why never to trust long range models if they show -NAO. Unfortunately a lot of profesionals went with a cool November period in Europe and at least mid Atlantic ridge.What we are receiving is a standard pattern that is default since 2013/14. I ve checked my location EPS mean that is reaching to now last week of November and its at +1 at 850hPa @ 650asl. never below that! So anti Nina month surely one MJO phase 8 can not make one month be so anti Nina. 

ElA5nAXXgAAzbw1.jpeg

nao.sprd2 (1).gif

Near neutral NAO is a good signal for November since it is traditionally a +NAO month on average

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7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Jan 06 was probably one of the greatest cold spells that never was (the high actually beat the Atlantic a few days later but sunk). 

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That was a real heartbreaker. I remember seeing the forecast for places like Warsaw and Berlin and how quickly the temperature bombed as the frigid air marched westward - only for it to sink south (it was probably pretty epic in Slovakia but I wasn't here then).

January 2017 was probably even worse - lying snow in Benidorm while most of the UK and Ireland was in double digits. At least I got to spend the second half of the month here, where it was real brass monkeys. 

Edited by AderynCoch
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10 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Won't be long until The Met Office drop their references to a colder end to November/start to December.

The Sceuro High already looks like it's setting up shop for a long while.

Wouldn,t be quite so sure about that MS. 12Z GFS shows a good number of runs heading sub -5 right at the end which would tie quite nicely with the Meto outlook,  as ever we shall see but somthing to keep an eye on I think

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Interesting to see a lobe of the polar vortex having a real go of setting up over Alaska from mid November onwards..looks a particularly snowy run for my neck of the woods esp later on 

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6 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

When do netweather release there winter forecast 

I think its normally early December not sure who is doing it this year recent years has either been Stuart or Nick.

C.S

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Not sure where this "get the wind rain and mild out of the way" stance comes from in regard to getting a decent winter? It's not like it has a memory or menopausal is it. It Dosnt balance it self out "ie penalties and liuck in football". What is this all about 🙄🙄🙄

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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As expected the Met office have ditched the mention of colder drier weather in the extended with mild and wet South Westerlies now likely,

I’ve just read the extended Met Office forecast to the 8th December and it says, milder at first before possibly turning colder than average with an increased risk of frost and wintry precipitation into December, notably northern high ground. 

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This morning's glosea run is disappointing. If the MetO is correct we are in for a predominantly +NAO winter. We will wait and see if a Nina ridge can give anything of interest in December, and then we may need to hope for an SSW creating impacts outside the forecast envelope. This happened of course in 2018 - all things are possible really in the world of weather.....though I would have liked to see better anomaly predictions from glosea. The Met has become irritatingly accurate.

image.thumb.png.cd411768460bba52f1764b832ab128df.png

Edited by Catacol
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If glosea is predicting a mostly + nao winter that's certainly not good news. 😒.

Prepare for the worst ,hope for the best. 14c dull and gloomy  and wet outside as I type, I hope this muck isn't an omen of what's to come over the next few months. 

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