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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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I know it probably means nothing, but I've long had a bit of hope for this coming Winter based on the fact it'll be a winter starting in a year ending in 0 and finishing in one ending in 1. Just taking the three most recent examples of Winters 1990/91, 2000/01 and 2010/11, all these had cold and snow in their respective December's especially. 1980/81 not so much I believe but even that was only one year out from 1981/82, so close. 1970/71 was also one I believe with a white Christmas in London, although going back 1960/61 wasn't up to much. 1950/51 had a cold December looking at the CET (1.2c) and 1940/41 was one of the coldest in years at that point.

Hopefully 2020/21 joins the trend for having cold and snow, as well as it coming in December to add to the festive spirit as a few of those other Winters ending in the same numbers did. 🤞

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14 hours ago, jules216 said:

November 2020 not behaving like a typical moderate/strong La Nina. Where is mid Atlantic ridge? But its behaving like recent years.Come November we get north Pacific high,Atlantic trough and Euro High. Anomalies are copying  SST very well.

CollageMaker_20201102_004604691.jpg

CollageMaker_20201102_005306864.jpg

Destructive interference caused by quite a robust MJO passing and spike in atmospheric momentum needs to pass before the background Niña pattern reasserts. Timing always tricky....but I’d expect to see mid Atlantic and Greenland ridge options appear in NWP output as we work in to the second half of November and particularly as we move towards December. Still need to see how deep Niña is getting of course - if ENSO region goes as low as some models have predicted then all bets maybe are off. However as was pointed out a few days ago we have once had a very deep Niña...back in 1916/17 and that winter ended up very blocked. There is always hope....🙂

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Destructive interference caused by quite a robust MJO passing and spike in atmospheric momentum needs to pass before the background Niña pattern reasserts. Timing always tricky....but I’d expect to see mid Atlantic and Greenland ridge options appear in NWP output as we work in to the second half of November and particularly as we move towards December. Still need to see how deep Niña is getting of course - if ENSO region goes as low as some models have predicted then all bets maybe are off. However as was pointed out a few days ago we have once had a very deep Niña...back in 1916/17 and that winter ended up very blocked. There is always hope....🙂

i think you need to factor in the very warm Northern Pacific at this time also..back in 2010 im sure it was the opposite with a cold Northern Pacific combined with a moderate/strong La Nina

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I have yet again reached my next due date to release my latest analysis of monthly CFS charts from weather outlook

Here is the latest 14 days worth of analysis

CFS 00Z 500hpa anomalies    Start 21/10/2020    End 03/11/2020        Last 03/11/2020

Temps         Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar        TOTAL

V Mild            0        0        0         0              0

Mild               0        0        0         0              0

Average        9        9        9          7             35

Cold              5        5         5         7             22

V Cold           0        0         0         0              0

Leader         AV     AV       AV     AV/CD      AV

 

Precip          Dec       Jan          Feb         Mar     TOTAL

V Dry             2            2             0              0            4

Dry                7            3             2              4            16

Average        5            4             5              6            20

Wet               0            5              6             4            15

V Wet            0           0              1             0              1

Leader        DRY   AV/WET   AV/WET    AV           AV

TOT    14 days worth of data

Key Temp figures    Key Precip Figures
V Mild       +2.00       V Dry        0%
Mild          +1.00       Dry            50%
Average    +0.00      Average    100%
Cold           -1.00       Wet           150%
V Cold       -2.00       V Wet        200%

Now to compare the averages calculated from both sets of data we have the following. The most recent analysis is in bold

06/07/2020 to 31/10/2020 Analysis November CET        -0.33C COLDER        November Precip        90.32% OF NOV AV
The above November figures are my final analysis from all previous updates and the final forecast issued on 31/10/2020. Search in 31/10/2020's posts in this topic to find my forecast

21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis December CET        -0.36C COLDER        December Precip        60.71% OF DEC AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis December CET           -0.21C COLDER         December Precip          75.00% OF DEC AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis December CET           -0.29C COLDER         December Precip          75.00% OF DEC AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis December CET           -0.25C COLDER         December Precip          87.97% OF DEC AV

21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis January CET            -0.36C COLDER        January Precip             92.86% OF JAN AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis January CET                -0.14C COLDER        January Precip               114.29% OF JAN AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis January CET                -0.36C COLDER        January Precip               103.57% OF JAN AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis January CET                -0.25C COLDER        January Precip               108.23% OF JAN AV

21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis February CET        -0.36C COLDER        February Precip           121.43% OF FEB AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis February CET            -0.50C COLDER        February Precip             125.00% OF FEB AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis February CET            -0.43C COLDER        February Precip             125.00% OF FEB AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis February CET            -0.24C COLDER        February Precip             115.82% OF FEB AV

21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis March CET             -0.50C COLDER        March Precip               100.00% OF MAR AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis March CET                -0.57C COLDER         March Precip                 125.00% OF MAR AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis March CET                -0.43C COLDER         March Precip                 110.71% OF MAR AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis March CET                 -0.11C COLDER        March Precip                 112.66% OF MAR AV

21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM -0.38C COLDER     OVERALL NOV-MAR % 93.06% OF NOV-MAR AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM      -0.38C COLDER      OVERALL NOV-MAR %   101.43% OF NOV-MAR AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM      -0.37C COLDER      OVERALL NOV-MAR %   100.71% OF NOV-MAR AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM      -0.19C COLDER      OVERALL NOV-MAR %   104.43% OF NOV-MAR AV

November 2020

CET - I have already issued the full November forecast so refer to this for the details but the overall CET anomaly forecast was for -0.33C Colder than the 81-10 CET average

Precip - My forecast showed a slightly drier than average November with 90.32% of predicted November precipitation

December 2020

CET - After a rather consistent showing of the CET anomaly for December 2020 since the very first monthly CFS charts analysis the CET anomaly has remained rather consistently in the -0.20C to -0.29C range for the anomaly to the 81-10 average. Good news any cold fans on here as the latest analysis for December 2020 has finally broken the -0.30C barrier with a new colder anomaly of -0.36C colder than 81-10. Can we keep this new trend going or is this a one off?

Precip - The drier than average December 2020 prediction continues and has got even drier yet again. We began with 87.97% of December average, then dropped it to 75% of average for the next two 14 day blocks. The latest analysis has dried things out a bit more again with a new low of 60.71% of December average. This maintains the signal for December 2020 ending up the driest overall month in the November 2020 to March 2021 period.

January 2021

CET - January 2021 has generally turned out slightly colder than average anomalies since the start but the previous one to this update was rather disappointing compared with some earlier ones. The good news for cold fans is that we have shifted back colder again with an equal cold anomaly for January 2021 so far of another -0.36C Colder than the 81-10 average. Is this like the December 2020 one with the start of a trend or will it be further disappointment again?

Precip - January 2021 has in general trended slightly wetter than average so far in all of the CFS predictions. This latest one bucks the trend as it has come out slightly drier than average this time with a new update of 92.86% of the January average. Is this a one off or are signs now showing up for a drier start to 2021 than has been predicted so far. After winter 2019/20 we really need a drier one and this trend looks pleasing for those who want to avoid a repeat of the floods of last winter.

February 2021

CET - February 2021 has looked like a more solid colder than average month so far in the CFS analysis right back from in the summer and the latest update is no exception to this. -0.36C Colder than the 81-10 average is the latest figure and is very much within the February 2021 prediction range and keeps us well on track for a colder month.

Precip - February 2021 has consistently come out as overall the wettest month in the November 2020 to March 2021 period and the latest update keeps this trend full on and going strong with another 121.43% of February average. This combined with the two 125% figures and the 115.82% keeps February top of the precipitation charts in this period. With consistent colder than average CET anomalies showing up too then February 2021 could be an interesting month from the snow perspective at least

March 2021

CET - March 2021 has been the most interesting month so far for colder fans and the latest update keeps this interest firmly on course for the coldest anomaly to average of all 5 months between November 2020 and March 2021. The latest anomaly prediction is -0.50C Colder than average and with some decent cold anomalies in all but one of the previous updates then this could be a good month for cold frosty weather or snow makers.

Precip - March 2021 has in general come out on the slightly wetter side of average but the latest update is the driest so far but with a prediction of bang on average precipitation this time with the latest 100% of March average predicted. Still the potential for snow makers in there, especially earlier on in the month if things time right.

Overall November 2020 - March 2021 period

CET - The overall CET anomaly equals the last update with another -0.38C Colder than the 81-10 period on average analysis after the latest figures and keeps the getting colder trend on track. The latest analysis however has a definite underlying trend beginning to appear with the least cold CET compared to average early on and gradually getting colder compared with average as we head through the Nov-Mar period. November 2020 has a prediction of -0.33C Colder and by the time we get to March 2021 it has dropped to -0.50C Colder. Lets hope things work out this way then we could be in for some fun this winter assuming we aren't all forced to stop at home that is

Precip - This is the first update that has shown a drier than average overall signal for the November to March period. The underlying trend is however still there with the driest weather early in the winter and becoming wetter later on. December 2020 remains driest overall and February 2021 the wettest but the dropping in precipitation in December 2020 and January 2021 has pulled the overall figure under 100% for the first time as it now stands at 93.06% of the Nov-Mar average.

My next update based on the monthly CFS charts from weather outlook will be on 17/11/2020

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Firstly thank you to Squeakheart LW for all your posts which must take you hours!!Looks like we will dry out a bit next couple of weeks which is great news after such a wet October.This winter looks very interesting and once again the potential is there for some early season cold maybe as early as late November.One thing that is very different to 2019 is the Indian Dipole which was strongly positive last year and some feel was a reason why Europe remained mostly mild last winter.At the moment it is very slightly negative and likely to remain this way to neutral throughout the next 3 months so it will be interesting to see come March if we can possibly attribute this as one thing that may or may not have been a cause of a colder winter.La Nina is also a big talking point this year and the big question is how strong will it become?Fascinating at this time of year when there seems to be more optimism for early cold compared to the last 5/6 years but all eyes will be on the PV and whether it ramps up as it has done in recent years and as a result melts the optimism of coldies as it does so.

Thanks to all the contributors who make these forums informative and entertaining at the same time👍

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14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Nice,i bet that was nice with the snow capped mountains in the backdrop whilst sunbathing😍

anyway a final one from me until later on when the 18z churns out...

check out this festive chart from the cfs JFBF(just for big fun)😜

anim_otj7.thumb.gif.5fcb63f057300c6986868187c2d2a70c.gifanim_vnu3.thumb.gif.cfbdec44c0ff8db2558b01483b1ecb0c.gif

very La nina esque.

Now that would freeze the Thames Estuary !

C

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2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Now that would freeze the Thames Estuary !

C

! maybe if the longevity of the cold was there,still,it would give us both a taste of true winter and it has been a while since we(the UK)had a white Christmas.

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

! maybe if the longevity of the cold was there,still,it would give us both a taste of true winter and it has been a while since we(the UK)had a white Christmas.

It would be the extreme if -20c  850mb temps were to engage the SE of England as shown on that projection. I have no clue as to how these charts are derived. Has any been correct that far out ?

C

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1 minute ago, carinthian said:

It would be the extreme if -20c  850mb temps were to engage the SE of England as shown on that projection. I have no clue as to how these charts are derived. Has any been correct that far out ?

C

Nope😆

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14 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Nice,i bet that was nice with the snow capped mountains in the backdrop whilst sunbathing😍

anyway a final one from me until later on when the 18z churns out...

check out this festive chart from the cfs JFBF(just for big fun)😜

anim_otj7.thumb.gif.5fcb63f057300c6986868187c2d2a70c.gifanim_vnu3.thumb.gif.cfbdec44c0ff8db2558b01483b1ecb0c.gif

very La nina esque.

That particular cold spell lasts from 15th December right up to 28th December

image.thumb.png.b1165e2b0e4088a9f0c19febfd8b8340.pngimage.thumb.png.379cb7e81264449398479f8c2fef1e90.png

Just look at how close the -20C 850mb isotherm gets to the UK on the 15th

The cold then just hangs around after this until a NW to SE slider low passes down to the SW of the UK. No doubt a snow maker for some in parts of England, Wales and maybe NI too.

image.thumb.png.e822c0b3e8ba5b99e81e02abeabb00cc.pngimage.thumb.png.07ad240c0d3c0bb1a5f6ec201f4a8cb2.png

You can see the clear air mass dividing line near the SW of the UK. Those just to the N and E of this are game on for snow if this comes off

Here are the charts for the big day itself

image.thumb.png.144dcd117e99b16904840da1ab9378ac.pngimage.thumb.png.22f798e331d0b7204aafdda23e44c8de.png

A relatively dry day with a continental feed and probably close to freezing by day and very cold at night. No doubt a nice covering of snow on the ground from previous snow showers, snow events between 15th and 22nd December. Maybe a risk of a few snow showers across the SE of England

Finally we have the end of the cold spell on the 28th with Atlantic fronts no doubt pushing in against the cold air producing a transitional snow event before the milder air arrives and takes over in time for the new year

image.thumb.png.86ae136313d04cff70d5d0b22f93038c.pngimage.thumb.png.9f2e2f0518f2c04239550f45329510ff.png

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My fourth CFS Christmas update here for you all to read today containing the next 10 days worth of analysis from the CFS 9 monthly runs from meteociel

My first to third updates came in with the following figures

Update 1

26/09/2020 to 05/10/2020 Data

Temps            0z          6z       12z          18z     TOTALS

V Mild                                                                    0

Mild                 2                        1              2          5

Average          4            6          5              3         18          AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS

Cold                 4           3          4              3         14          PREDICTED IN FIRST UPDATE

V Cold                           1                          2          3

LEADER        AV/CD    AV    AV/CD    AV/CD    AV

Precip            0z           6z         12z      18z      TOTALS

V Dry                                                                     0

Dry                  2             4          3           7           16

Average          4             2          4           2           12          DRIER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED

Wet                 4             4          3           1           12          IN FIRST UPDATE

V Wet                                                                    0

LEADER     AV/WET     AV       AV       DRY       DRY

Update 2

06/10/2020 to 15/10/2020 Data

Temps           0z           6z         12z       18z     TOTALS

V Mild                                                                   0

Mild                1                                                    1           UPDATE 2

Average         7             7             6            3       23          AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS

Cold               1             3             2            5       11          COLDER THAN AVERAGE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATIVE

V Cold            1                            2            2        5

LEADER        AV          AV           AV         CD      AV

Precip           0z           6z           12z       18z     TOTALS

V Dry                                                                     0

Dry                 2             2              2           1         7           UPDATE 2

Average         6             4             7            6        23          AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS

Wet                2             3             1            3         9

V Wet                            1                                      1

LEADER        AV           AV          AV          AV      AV

Update 3

16/10/2020 to 25/10/2020 Data

Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS

V Mild                                                                        0 (No Change)

Mild                                                              2           2 (+1)

Average        5             4              5              3          17 (-6)          AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED

Cold              5             3              5              4           17 (+6)

V Cold                          3                              1            4 (-1)

LEADER     AV/CD     COLD     AV/CD      COLD    AV/CD

Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

V Dry                                                                         0 (No Change)

Dry                1             3              3               3         10 (+3)

Average        6             7              4               5         22 (-1)          AVERAGE PRECIPITATION PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS

Wet               3                             3                2         8 (-1)

V Wet                                                                        0 (-1)

LEADER       AV           AV           AV              AV       AV

LATEST UPDATE - UPDATE 4

Now it is time to reveal the latest 10 days of analysis from the 9 monthly CFS runs for Christmas 2020. The change from the previous update is shown in brackets next to the figures in the totals column.

26/10/2020 to 04/11/2020 Data

Temps          0z           6z           12z         18z         TOTALS

V Mild                                                                             0 (No Change)

Mild                1             2             1             1                 5 (+3)

Average          6            6             7              3               22 (+5)          AVERAGE TEMPS PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS

Cold                3                            2              5               11 (-6)

V Cold                            2                             1                3 (-1)

LEADER         AV           AV          AV           CD             AV

Precip           0z           6z           12z          18z       TOTALS

V Dry                                                             1                1 (+1)

Dry                 4            6              4               5               19 (+9)

Average         4            4              5               3               16 (-6)          DRIER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED

Wet                2                             1               1                5 (-3)

V Wet                                                                               0 (No Change)

LEADER    AV/DRY    DRY      AV/DRY       DRY          DRY

Temperatures - Between update 3 and the latest update 4 we have seen a big swing back towards milder than average for Christmas Day. Both Mild and Average options have gained hits at the expense of Cold and V Cold options in the latest 10 days analysis. I hope this is just a one off and not part of a new trend showing for the day itself. What looked so promising in update 3 with the colder swing has been wiped out again by this latest update

Precipitation - Between update 3 and the latest update 4 a big swing to drier than average has taken place. V Dry has a hit this time but the big +9 gain to dry is at the expense of Average and Wet which both lost out here. At least a washout Christmas looks off with this update and would make up for the swing towards milder.

The next Christmas update will be in 10 days time on 14/11/2020

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Meteo France has updated its seasonal model for November. Just to point out it was showing a -NAO for November-December in its October update which is turning out to be a massive blunder in November already as almost reversed pattern is present now.  It has flipped in to a Sceuro high in December, Euro high in January and westerly in February, to me it looks like a 2007-08 copy.

This mini  Nino like MJO eastwards push did do us more harm then benefit, as it ruined the mid Atlantic ridge in November and instead brought this Euro block which does no favors to early cold Nina like pattern.

Again all timing on the wrong side with everything = MJO,QBO, strong La Nina etc.  

On a personal note I am living in a valley that is probably to coldest place in the whole of Europe under inversion regime. Last January I managed to achieve nearly below average month with many days not warmer then -6C with little to none snow cover. With this Meteo France pattern I would be even colder, unfortunately not looking good for winter in Western Europe.

ufC1vyhp.jpg

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CFS predicted an overall November CET anomaly of -0.33C Colder than the 81-10 average which had my hopes up at least of a chance of something colder this month

Current rolling CET is 10.8C up to 3rd of November which is currently +3.70C above the 81-10 average of 7.10C.

Not getting off to a very good start for your November prediction is it CFS?

Unless we are going to see some significant colder weather later in the month then the CFS prediction is going to be a very big flop

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Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

CFS predicted an overall November CET anomaly of -0.33C Colder than the 81-10 average which had my hopes up at least of a chance of something colder this month

Current rolling CET is 10.8C up to 3rd of November which is currently +3.70C above the 81-10 average of 7.10C.

Not getting off to a very good start for your November prediction is it CFS?

Unless we are going to see some significant colder weather later in the month then the CFS prediction is going to be a very big flop

Not only CFS but look at Meteo France and ECMWF with their mid Atlantic high/-NAO and Sceuro trough anomaly that is turning out to be a complete opposite this month. For me that is a monumental disaster with one month lead time not long time ago EC was showing a mean -NAO between 5 to 20.11 look at the models today. Yet again NAO not able to go negative once the cold season begins. Poleward Haddley cell expansion and tropospheric/stratospheric temperature balance is most likely to blame here. As lower troposphere becomes warmer the upper stratosphere becomes colder and you can see the it happening right now, strong vortex will eventually couple and bye bye winter. 

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5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Not only CFS but look at Meteo France and ECMWF with their mid Atlantic high/-NAO and Sceuro trough anomaly that is turning out to be a complete opposite this month. For me that is a monumental disaster with one month lead time not long time ago EC was showing a mean -NAO between 5 to 20.11 look at the models today. Yet again NAO not able to go negative once the cold season begins. Poleward Haddley cell expansion and tropospheric/stratospheric temperature balance is most likely to blame here. As lower troposphere becomes warmer the upper stratosphere becomes colder and you can see the it happening right now, strong vortex will eventually couple and bye bye winter. 

Is this a new record for earliest winter is over post 🙂

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5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Not only CFS but look at Meteo France and ECMWF with their mid Atlantic high/-NAO and Sceuro trough anomaly that is turning out to be a complete opposite this month. For me that is a monumental disaster with one month lead time not long time ago EC was showing a mean -NAO between 5 to 20.11 look at the models today. Yet again NAO not able to go negative once the cold season begins. Poleward Haddley cell expansion and tropospheric/stratospheric temperature balance is most likely to blame here. As lower troposphere becomes warmer the upper stratosphere becomes colder and you can see the it happening right now, strong vortex will eventually couple and bye bye winter. 

Don't panic @jules216... here's the chart for 10/11/78:

image.thumb.png.7abb4b7a5d47a08915027f58bedd9cbf.png

Things can change!:snowman-emoji:

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12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is this a new record for earliest winter is over post 🙂

I dont know have you seen how is Meteo France and ECMWF November -NAO verifying? Have you seen the recent zonal winds forecasts? What about all seasonal models that have had very mild January and February look? The only positive ones were Meteo France and ECMWF for Nov/Dec period, already November is going the opposite way, moderate Nina models are also looking wrong as strong event is more likely + QBO. What optimism going forward do you see? 

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49 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I dont know have you seen how is Meteo France and ECMWF November -NAO verifying? Have you seen the recent zonal winds forecasts? What about all seasonal models that have had very mild January and February look? The only positive ones were Meteo France and ECMWF for Nov/Dec period, already November is going the opposite way, moderate Nina models are also looking wrong as strong event is more likely + QBO. What optimism going forward do you see? 

Maybe hold your horses regards strong Niña.....temperature starting to tick up in the last few days....

nino34-1.png

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Don't panic @jules216... here's the chart for 10/11/78:

image.thumb.png.7abb4b7a5d47a08915027f58bedd9cbf.png

Things can change!:snowman-emoji:

Exactly all this panic November isn’t even a winter month, there has been many a mild November followed by a average to colder than average December, would rather see the colder temps then. 
Last November was colder than average and look what followed a very mild winter!!!

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5 hours ago, jules216 said:

Not only CFS but look at Meteo France and ECMWF with their mid Atlantic high/-NAO and Sceuro trough anomaly that is turning out to be a complete opposite this month. For me that is a monumental disaster with one month lead time not long time ago EC was showing a mean -NAO between 5 to 20.11 look at the models today. Yet again NAO not able to go negative once the cold season begins. Poleward Haddley cell expansion and tropospheric/stratospheric temperature balance is most likely to blame here. As lower troposphere becomes warmer the upper stratosphere becomes colder and you can see the it happening right now, strong vortex will eventually couple and bye bye winter. 

Jules have you not considered the fact that the signal that ECM and metrofrance of a possible negative NAO may just be bit early. The signal could still be legitimate as the Met office extended outlook would suggest just that it's coming about a bit later. Medium/long range forecasting is not an exact science so holding the ECM 46 dayer or meteoFrance long range outlook to account for an exact date is not really sensible or fair.

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5 hours ago, jules216 said:

I dont know have you seen how is Meteo France and ECMWF November -NAO verifying? Have you seen the recent zonal winds forecasts? What about all seasonal models that have had very mild January and February look? The only positive ones were Meteo France and ECMWF for Nov/Dec period, already November is going the opposite way, moderate Nina models are also looking wrong as strong event is more likely + QBO. What optimism going forward do you see? 

Today's date 🙂

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57 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Jules have you not considered the fact that the signal that ECM and metrofrance of a possible negative NAO may just be bit early. The signal could still be legitimate as the Met office extended outlook would suggest just that it's coming about a bit later. Medium/long range forecasting is not an exact science so holding the ECM 46 dayer or meteoFrance long range outlook to account for an exact date is not really sensible or fair.

I am sorry but what makes you think UKMO suggests -NAO? It could be cyclonic polar maritime air with snow on the northern hills. Have a look at 12Z runs.They collapse the ridge in to  a Euro high pattern and now see a sudden daughter vortex in the worst spot.A far cry from what seasonals suggested in October fo this month.November is shaping up to be the mildest of autumn months in Europe,big bust of long range models,how do you trust December change then when the signal for November was even stronger? I dont and who cares its just weather. I become to hate 'modern' winters and like @Tamara cant wait for spring and summer which never fails to bring plenty of warm and sunny weather in my neck of the woods

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6 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I am sorry but what makes you think UKMO suggests -NAO? It could be cyclonic polar maritime air with snow on the northern hills. Have a look at 12Z runs.They collapse the ridge in to  a Euro high pattern and now see a sudden daughter vortex in the worst spot.A far cry from what seasonals suggested in October fo this month.November is shaping up to be the mildest of autumn months in Europe,big bust of long range models,how do you trust December change then when the signal for November was even stronger? I dont and who cares its just weather. I become to hate 'modern' winters and like @Tamara cant wait for spring and summer which never fails to bring plenty of warm and sunny weather in my neck of the woods

With respect. Yes Jules I have seen the 12z which doesn't even go out to the final week of November let alone early December that the Meto update refers to.  I appreciate that the big high parked over central Europe is not great for you at that point but things can and do change.

I certainly wouldn't be writing off winter on November 5th for the uk or central Europe.

I hope you get a good winter and some decent snow.

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