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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I suspect Nov will be colder than average...

Lots of dry cold foggy weather through the month...(after the next few days)..

I hope you’re right, would be nice for November to start feeling a bit wintry.  

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Even if November is below average it won't be by much (and I take it we're talking about the 81-2010 series?)...though in the last few months there has been reason to be a little more optimistic about cold chances due to the chilly July (by recent standards), the cold end to September and first half of October so a possibility of cold spells/snaps to come though really cannot see anything in the way of a cold anomaly CET month over this winter period, mild periods always seem to snuggle in each month.

The last winter month below -1c anomaly on the 61-90 CET series that the MetO uses was nearly a decade ago...which tells us everything we need to know.

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1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

CanSIPS remains postive about december, later in the winter zonal.

5f9ea61dd57e5.png

The reds are deceptive of course...

December would return dry and  cold if that chart was accurate. ..

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20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The reds are deceptive of course...

December would return dry and  cold if that chart was accurate. ..

Thanks, scale seems to make it look deceptively above average temperature at first glance.

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27 minutes ago, jules216 said:

 

cansips_T2ma_eu_2.png

Yep! that would some that up CanSIPS forecast up for 2m temps...days near or slightly above normal with some chilly nights, all depends on how much mT air you get in the mix. Interestingly the DWD model (German) had high pressure anomalies near to or just the north west of the UK for Dec with the ECM MSLP ens ensemble means...one of the few seasonal models that didn't predict northern blocking for the winter of 2018/19.

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1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Awful profile for December, would indicate high pressure over UK with cold air channeld into SE Europe, winter 2017 was similar and as boring as hell. 

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

I'm not a fan of fog and frost nw. Heating bills go up and it seems a bit of a waste of time in winter. Guess it's festive esp around Xmas but I'm a snow or nothing geek 👌that said its more cheerfull than a westerly gale and flooding 

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3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yep! that would some that up CanSIPS forecast up for 2m temps...days near or slightly above normal with some chilly nights, all depends on how much mT air you get in the mix. Interestingly the DWD model (German) had high pressure anomalies near to or just the north west of the UK for Dec with the ECM MSLP ens ensemble means...one of the few seasonal models that didn't predict northern blocking for the winter of 2018/19.

do you have link to DWD November update?thnks

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

Just what we need given current stay at home situation, dry sunny weather to get people active - sunshine is what we need on order on tap for next few weeks, and I would be very happy if such a profile verified.

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Just now, damianslaw said:

Just what we need given current stay at home situation, dry sunny weather to get people active - sunshine is what we need on order on tap for next few weeks, and I would be very happy if such a profile verified. Endless grey overcast wet days when it doesn't get light is not what we need.

 

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The main issue is that once we get into December high pressure doesn't necessarily translate to dry sunny weather.  It can do (I especially remember December 2001 for long periods of dry sunny weather with some overnight frost and fog) but you can also get prolonged spells of anticyclonic gloom when it never really gets light all day.  The most reliable pattern for sunshine in December varies depending on where you live but I reckon that in the north-west it's probably a predominantly northerly regime (December 2010 was record-breaking for sunshine as well as cold in many parts of the north-west of Britain) while in the east and south it's probably a polar maritime west/north-westerly type like in the Decembers of 1999 and 2014.

Anyway from my experiences with long-range forecasting I haven't found CanSIPS to be among the more reliable long-range models.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

I would prefer zonality to endless anticyclonic gloom which high pressure in winter inevitably brings. At least with zonality you can get Pm or even Arctic airmasses with at least some snow on hills. A uK high is a winter killer.

Andy

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Zonality is only worth it if the cold variety. As an outdoors lover, I’d take a high over zonality any day, especially a cold one or an inversion. Frost, fog, sun, frozen ground... yes please! A spell of cold zonality, a slider then a high would be perfect.

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25 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Zonality is only worth it if the cold variety. As an outdoors lover, I’d take a high over zonality any day, especially a cold one or an inversion. Frost, fog, sun, frozen ground... yes please! A spell of cold zonality, a slider then a high would be perfect.

Couldn’t agree more 

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57 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Zonality is only worth it if the cold variety. As an outdoors lover, I’d take a high over zonality any day, especially a cold one or an inversion. Frost, fog, sun, frozen ground... yes please! A spell of cold zonality, a slider then a high would be perfect.

Agree, typically zonality in winter is predominantly long periods of westerly, southwestern airstreams and one day NW or N wonders. Such airstreams here at least bring incessant damp overcast and often very wet skies, just as bad as anti cyclones, oh and gales as well.. and flooding, no joy in that whatsoever. We can get more colder zonal periods when jet aligns more NW-SE trajectory, but these seem harder to come by nowadays.. 

It very much depends where a high sits, sometimes when overhead can bring sunny weather sometimes grey especially if we see fronts get caught within, normally happens when we have an airflow from off Atlantic riding over the top, anticyclones centred on top or even better jusg to our north usually much cleaner.

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31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Agree, typically zonality in winter is predominantly long periods of westerly, southwestern airstreams and one day NW or N wonders. Such airstreams here at least bring incessant damp overcast and often very wet skies, just as bad as anti cyclones, oh and gales as well.. and flooding, no joy in that whatsoever. We can get more colder zonal periods when jet aligns more NW-SE trajectory, but these seem harder to come by nowadays.. 

It very much depends where a high sits, sometimes when overhead can bring sunny weather sometimes grey especially if we see fronts get caught within, normally happens when we have an airflow from off Atlantic riding over the top, anticyclones centred on top or even better jusg to our north usually much cleaner.

Indeed. In mobile setups, I’ve noticed over the years that new year is a turning point. Southwesterlies are annoyingly persistent in Oct-Dec (now is a classic example) but then colder westerlies and northwesterlies gain the high ground in January to March. 

Fortunately we don’t suffer quite the same lengthy drearyness as you in the northwest from damp or wet southwesterlies as they’re often dry and the wet period is associated with the passing of a low so a brief affair.

Its quite welcome to see non Atlantic weather on the horizon now. The atypical year continues...

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November 2020 not behaving like a typical moderate/strong La Nina. Where is mid Atlantic ridge? But its behaving like recent years.Come November we get north Pacific high,Atlantic trough and Euro High. Anomalies are copying  SST very well.

CollageMaker_20201102_004604691.jpg

CollageMaker_20201102_005306864.jpg

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Dont like the charts so much now.Looks like the High wont get far enough North and we are ending up with a Eurotrash High.Hate that  as it can get into a stalemate with the low pressure in the Atlantic and we get weeks of winds from a mild  direction,and eventually the low slowly pushes nearer and finally Zonal take over.Seen it happen countless times since the late 80s.

Dont want another mild winter,had enough over recent years.

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Here's a clip I found on Youtube, I think it was Saturday 12th December 1981. It was from Swap Shop, the date says 1981 and the clue is the Christmas decorations and the discussion of how severe the weather was and that sounds like it was from that weekend in December 1981 

 

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