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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

NH view is even better on the eyeūüėĀ

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.313a3e62e7c305a59fa131e7df08f1b9.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.2316f28151ad9aa98ec8c7e5a5d3eb39.png

That‚Äôs exactly the sort of chart I‚Äôve been mentioning is worth keeping an eye out for over the next few weeks, the signal for build of pressure across scandi seems to be growing at the minute ūüôā

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

That‚Äôs exactly the sort of chart I‚Äôve been mentioning is worth keeping an eye out for over the next few weeks, the signal for build of pressure across scandi seems to be growing at the minute ūüôā

Yes,the 12z gefs mean still signalling a pressure rise to our NE,the postage stamps still has a good few ones in there

326240377_gensnh-31-1-384(1).thumb.png.0ad00956c60776d0ea656d661334333e.pnggens_panel_owc5.thumb.png.79835d5ad226a0589169549932dda901.png

but Pert 6 has this

gensnh-6-1-384.thumb.png.49d40412e78d3590d346a16be5ca02da.png

^what a chart.

 

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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Like to see these charts verify at end of December for a change, instead of the usual garbage we witness. Imagine the scenes in here.... 

Oh!,i think before that

2010 repeat would be a nice icing on the cake

but we have been here numerous times at this time of the year when NWP'S show synoptic charts like they are showing now only to get watered down to a wet f**T,lets see what transpires over the coming days/weeks eh!

we are in a better place than last winter(atm) but i will keep sitting on the fence for now. 

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6 hours ago, markyo said:

You really don't get it do you? Folk like different seasons, they look forward and enjoy the prospect of that season, just like you do in early to mid Spring.

You can talk!  Fancy preaching about this, pot and kettle come to mind!!

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6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Exactly, it's like us telling him not to get excited about a hot spell in May. Of course you can get snow in November lol.

Yes you can get snow in November but its very limited to high ground with local towns getting the odd covering....if its real disruptive heavy snowfall your looking for then November isn't really the best month. Just as if its real heat your looking for then May isn't the best month. 

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2 hours ago, londonblizzard said:

15 November VS 15 March. Which date would people say on average has a better chance of getting some reasonable snow? 

Definitely March, I'd go as far as saying March 15 better chance than Dec 15 even, or at least equal chance.

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2 hours ago, londonblizzard said:

15 November VS 15 March. Which date would people say on average has a better chance of getting some reasonable snow? 

100% March....I¬†had 20cm +¬†in March 2013 ūü•įand over the years I can remember plenty of northerlies....you don‚Äôt see that in November ūü•ī

Edit, It make sense anyway as¬†March is the coldest month of the year in the Northern hemisphere ūü§Ē

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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3 hours ago, londonblizzard said:

15 November VS 15 March. Which date would people say on average has a better chance of getting some reasonable snow? 

At my location here in Dorset March 2018 was the second snowiest month of the last decade in terms of aggregate depth of snowfall. Just behind Dec  2010.

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6 hours ago, 38.7¬įC said:

Yes you can get snow in November but its very limited to high ground with local towns getting the odd covering....if its real disruptive heavy snowfall your looking for then November isn't really the best month. Just as if its real heat your looking for then May isn't the best month. 

I'd argue against that to an extent, whilst understanding that there is definitely a higher chance of more substantial snowfall in March than November, it is very much possible in November. These are a couple of photos of my old street in November 2010, not the highest of ground and the major towns and cities were all severely affected, flights cancelled at numerous airports etc, and my location had falling snow for 7 consecutive days leading to crazy depths of well over 2 feet and drifts into the meters. 

The 70+cm in Bathgate mentioned in the met office article was about 2 miles east of my location and gives the idea of the sort of depths involved. This all kicked off on the 24th of November, lasting into the first week of December and lying snow lasted on the ground until Christmas. 

Screenshot_20201031_093958.thumb.jpg.ba08033f198a431dbdfa64161ac2de4c.jpg

 

Screenshot_20201031_094051.thumb.jpg.a332815b0780d90c91cdfcd1ec6e5960.jpg

 

Screenshot_20201031_094126_com.android.gallery3d.thumb.jpg.613dfb2a9d9f81bc0f6efcffd73cd0b2.jpg

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On the subject of snow in November, I remember getting the odd half decent snowfall from time to time that month round here. Although fairly often a cold and snowy Winter didn't follow. Besides 2010 of course I remember a couple of episodes in the mid 00s when it snowed in November. 2004 and  2005 I think. Not forgetting the incredibly snowy day we had here back in Nov 96 ( the only day in my time in secondary school from Sep 96 to Jun/Jul 01 our school was forced to close because of snow). 

It's been a while now I know, but taking a recent example of snow that was close to November, such as 10th Dec 17 ( which was a fantastic little spell round here) , you can easily imagine if the Synoptics had been 10 to 14 days earlier, which is hardly ages, you can see that it's still more than possible for November to deliver the goods. 

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34 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

I'd argue against that to an extent, whilst understanding that there is definitely a higher chance of more substantial snowfall in March than November, it is very much possible in November. These are a couple of photos of my old street in November 2010, not the highest of ground and the major towns and cities were all severely affected, flights cancelled at numerous airports etc, and my location had falling snow for 7 consecutive days leading to crazy depths of well over 2 feet and drifts into the meters. 

The 70+cm in Bathgate mentioned in the met office article was about 2 miles east of my location and gives the idea of the sort of depths involved. This all kicked off on the 24th of November, lasting into the first week of December and lying snow lasted on the ground until Christmas. 

Screenshot_20201031_093958.thumb.jpg.ba08033f198a431dbdfa64161ac2de4c.jpg

 

Screenshot_20201031_094051.thumb.jpg.a332815b0780d90c91cdfcd1ec6e5960.jpg

 

Screenshot_20201031_094126_com.android.gallery3d.thumb.jpg.613dfb2a9d9f81bc0f6efcffd73cd0b2.jpg

remember it very well, woke up here to 52cm in back garden.

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1354161.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is bracing for freezing temperatures to strike as a "significant cold" weather...

I don't trust the express but it's source is the met office. 

 

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On 30/10/2020 at 09:42, booferking said:

So had a wee look back at la nina winters near solar minimum below.

1984-1985                            January: 1985 0.8 February: 1985 2.1 Snowy

1995-1996                            December 1995: 2.3 February 1996: 2.5 Snowy

2010-2011 December CET: -0.7 Snowy

Going by that we should expect to see atleast 1 winter month a good bit colder than average.

 

Screenshot_20201030-094122_Chrome.jpg

unnamed.jpg

2007 had lower solar activity than 2010.

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1 hour ago, hamilton and weather fan 1 said:
1354161.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is bracing for freezing temperatures to strike as a "significant cold" weather...

I don't trust the express but it's source is the met office. 

 

Their outlook alluded to northerlies but certainly not a late Nov 10 repeat.

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It's definitely March, especially now when Arctic takes long time to cool down and freeze over. There was no wintry November in the last ten years in CE (and only twice in that period was November colder than March). Meanwhile March 13 and 18 brought noteworthy winter weather. 

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11 hours ago, londonblizzard said:

15 November VS 15 March. Which date would people say on average has a better chance of getting some reasonable snow? 

50/50 for each, although the NH is a lot colder in March, the sun is much stronger than in November. Days are shorter in November 

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13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Definitely March, I'd go as far as saying March 15 better chance than Dec 15 even, or at least equal chance.

Even June 75 probably had more snow than Dec 15 in some places.

(I've already got my coat...) 

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14 hours ago, daz_4 said:

It's definitely March, especially now when Arctic takes long time to cool down and freeze over. There was no wintry November in the last ten years in CE (and only twice in that period was November colder than March). Meanwhile March 13 and 18 brought noteworthy winter weather. 

Yes certainly the case here, when I was a child it wasn't uncommon to see snow during November 1st lighting up the candles,wearing thick winter coat and gloves with frozen hands trying to light up candle with matches in stiff northerly winds,brr. Now its been quasi permanently the case of an extended Indian summer period with light autumn jacked sufficient to wear. Looking at 2020 it is not different, carbon copy of past decade with a huge Scandinavian/Euro high pressure with no cold source anywhere near central Europe to be seen, exact anomaly of recent winters. But come March and April the easterly winds will return. 

gens-31-1-252.png

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21 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

MY FULL DETAILED CFS MODEL BASED NOVEMBER UPDATE AND FORECAST

After general updates for November 2020 based on the CFS monthly 500mb and 850mb anomaly charts on weather outlook I shall now add my much more detailed analysis from Meteociel and the CFS 9 monthly runs to my November 2020 analysis and will now produce my forecast for November 2020 based on all of this combined

General Monthly Analysis

First I will remind all of you what figures I got for the general monthly charts based on runs from 06/07/2020 to 20/10/2020 when I had my last monthly run update

Temps        Nov (06/07/20 to 22/09/20)    Nov (23/09/20 to 06/10/20)    Nov (07/10/20 to 20/10/20)
V Mild                                0                                                   0                                                0
Mild                                   23                                                 0                                                0
Average                            26                                                 9                                                7
Cold                                   30                                                 5                                                7
V Cold                                 0                                                  0                                                0

Precip        Nov (06/07/20 to 22/09/20)    Nov (23/09/20 to 06/10/20)    Nov (07/10/20 to 20/10/20)
V Dry                                  0                                                   1                                                2
Dry                                     25                                                 3                                                6
Average                             34                                                 8                                                5
Wet                                    19                                                  2                                                1
V Wet                                  1                                                  0                                                 0

CET                           -0.08C Colder                           -0.36C Colder                            -0.50C Colder
Precip                       97.47% Precip                          89.29% Precip                          67.86% Precip

Now combining the above figures into overall totals we end up with the following:

November 2020 Temps    V Mild    Mild    Average    Cold    V Cold
                                                  0           23           42           42         0        

November 2020 Precip     V Dry      Dry     Average    Wet     V Wet
                                                  3           34           47           22         1

CET - The overall totals show an average to below average CET is expected with an anomaly of -0.31C Colder on average
Precip - The overall precipitation signal is slightly drier than average at 84.87% of precipitation predicted

NOW HERE IS THE BIG PART

Time to add my detailed CFS 9 monthly run analysis into the mix. A total of 31 days worth of runs from the whole of October with 4 runs per day equalling 3720 500mb daily charts in all and 3720 850mb charts too. A lot of data has been gathered here and the final figures are below for these runs

TEMPS            00Z          06Z          12Z          18Z          TOTALS          Days
V MILD             7               4               6             14                31               0.25
MILD              114            89            141          145              489             3.94
AVERAGE       431           407           432          392             1662          13.40
COLD             308           316            279          280             1183           9.54
V COLD           70            114            72            99                355            2.86

PRECIP           00Z          06Z          12Z          18Z          TOTALS          Days
V DRY              29            13            12            15                 69               0.56
DRY                 244          260          251         287              1042            8.40
AVERAGE        462          491          487         484              1924           15.52
WET                179           162          177         140               658              5.31
V WET              16              4              3              4                  27               0.22

CET               -0.27C      -0.48C     -0.29C    -0.33C          -0.36C
PRECIP         95.11%   93.76%    95.05%   90.91%        93.71%

Overall CET - After such detailed analysis overall the signal came out colder than average overall for November 2020 with a predicted CET Anomaly of -0.36C Colder than average

  • 00Z CET - The 00Z run came out with -0.27C Colder than average and was overall the least cold run of the 4 of them
  • 06Z CET - The 06Z was the coldest of the runs with a decent -0.48C Colder than average signal
  • 12Z CET - The 12Z was slightly colder than average with an anomaly of -0.29C Colder than average
  • 18Z CET - The 18Z came out closest to the overall average of all runs combined with a -0.33C Colder than average signal

Overall Precip - After the detailed analysis overall the signal came out slightly drier than average overall for November 2020 with predicted precipitation at 93.71% of average

  • 00Z Precip - The 00Z was the least dry of the runs with 95.11% of average precipitation predicted
  • 06Z Precip - The 06Z was the closest to the overall average at 93.76% of average precipitation predicted
  • 12Z Precip - The 12Z was one of the less dry runs at 95.05% of average precipitation predicted
  • 18Z Precip - The 18Z was the driest run overall at 90.91% of average precipitation predicted

You may have noticed the days column in the data. This is the predicted number of days of November that that outcome is likely to happen based on the overall data if this came off

PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER

Predicted CET Anomaly

Based on all of the above analysis both from the detailed runs as well as the general monthly runs we can conclude the following for the CET Anomaly

Using individual blocks of CFS analysis as follows:

  • Monthly Analysis Summer¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† -0.08C Colder
  • Monthly Analysis Autumn 1¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† -0.36C Colder
  • Monthly Analysis Autumn 2¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† -0.50C Colder
  • Detailed Analysis October 00Z¬†¬† ¬†-0.27C Colder
  • Detailed Analysis October 06Z¬†¬† ¬†-0.48C Colder
  • Detailed Analysis October 12Z¬†¬† ¬†-0.29C Colder
  • Detailed Analysis October 18Z¬†¬† ¬†-0.36C Colder

OVERALL ANALYSIS AVERAGE      -0.33C COLDER THAN AVERAGE

November 2020 CET Anomaly Forecast
Based on the overall analysis a slightly colder than average November 2020 is predicted with an overall average CET anomaly of -0.33C Colder than the 81-10 mean. This is only the average and there is a wide range of values within the individual analysis so the margin of error could be anything from more or less average CET anomaly of -0.08C Colder to the coldest end of the margin of error at -0.50C Colder than average. Since most of the values are between -0.27C to -0.36C then there is a high chance of the overall average of -0.33C coming off here. Lets hope we can at least get this colder anomaly then we could get winter off to an early start.

Predicted Precipitation Levels

Based on all of the above analysis both from the detailed runs as well as the general monthly runs we can conclude the following for the Precipitation levels

Using individual blocks of CFS analysis as follows:

  • Monthly Analysis Summer¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† 97.47% Precip
  • Monthly Analysis Autumn 1¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† 89.29% Precip
  • Monthly Analysis Autumn 2¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† 67.86% Precip
  • Detailed Analysis October 00Z¬†¬† ¬†95.11% Precip
  • Detailed Analysis October 06Z¬†¬† ¬†93.76% Precip
  • Detailed Analysis October 12Z¬†¬† ¬†95.05% Precip
  • Detailed Analysis October 18Z¬†¬† ¬†93.71% Precip

OVERALL ANALYSIS AVERAGE     90.32% PRECIPITATION

November 2020 Precipitation Forecast
Based on the overall analysis a drier than average November 2020 is predicted with an overall average precipitation level of 90.32% of the November average. There is a large margin of error however with the least dry value at 97.47% of November average and most values came out between 90.00% and 96.00%. However there is a small chance of a significantly drier than average November 2020 as one value came out at a quite dry 67.86% of average. Drier than average looks very likely with a small chance of a very dry month.

Now it will be time for me to crack on with December 2020's analysis using the same two websites and CFS monthly general analysis from weather outlook and detailed analysis from the 9 monthly CFS runs  on Meteociel


So to sum it all up.  November is expected to be average 

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40 minutes ago, Beanz said:


So to sum it all up.  November is expected to be average 

I suspect Nov will be colder than average...

Lots of dry cold foggy weather through the month...(after the next few days)..

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