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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental...

 

 

anomp.11.1.2010.gif

Yes - see all the warmth just to the NE of the equator.

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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So had a wee look back at la nina winters near solar minimum below.

1984-1985                            January: 1985 0.8 February: 1985 2.1 Snowy

1995-1996                            December 1995: 2.3 February 1996: 2.5 Snowy

2010-2011 December CET: -0.7 Snowy

Going by that we should expect to see atleast 1 winter month a good bit colder than average.

 

Screenshot_20201030-094122_Chrome.jpg

unnamed.jpg

Edited by booferking
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

look at the latest forecast.

image.thumb.png.9d0bfa905ba13211421764fea400de41.png

Zoiks. As stated previously - if we are going to go strong Nina I hope it goes very strong Nina and drops below -2. That would at least put us in uncharted territory and add a bit of intrigue.......

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12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Zoiks. As stated previously - if we are going to go strong Nina I hope it goes very strong Nina and drops below -2. That would at least put us in uncharted territory and add a bit of intrigue.......

 

No, in winter 1917 there such a strong La Nina.

http://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

In this chart you see -2c in winter 1917.

Ek4rHLnXUAA2NYV.jpg

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4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

look at the latest forecast.

image.thumb.png.9d0bfa905ba13211421764fea400de41.png

CFS really is adamant about a super Nina but still hope it is over doing it.  However, a super Nina may just be what the world needs right now to help at least temporarily curb the warming?

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    I can live with these postage stamps from GEFS 6Z, they are an upgrade against what we are seeing now. Some form of blocking likely by middle of November. Just please dont be sinker and keep the high as far north as possible, weather it be Urals,Scandi,Iceland or Greenland, just no Sceuro  

gens_panel_qqq2.png

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6 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

No, in winter 1917 there such a strong La Nina.

http://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

In this chart you see -2c in winter 1917.

Ek4rHLnXUAA2NYV.jpg

Which interestingly with all said about strong la Nina effect on UK winters (super Nina 1916?), this was one winter which is mentioned amongst coldest winters of 20th century (colder than 2009/10 winter by near to 1c). 

For reference on enso years - see Eric Webb Twitter / 

WWW.WEBBERWEATHER.COM

Figure 1. December 1877 Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies via HADISST2.1

 

screen-shot-2020-10-21-at-1-42-53-pm_orig.thumb.png.c0fde46bc1e9e609efc6e50991c96936.png

Edited by Bullseye
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1 hour ago, Bullseye said:

Which interestingly with all said about strong la Nina effect on UK winters (super Nina 1916?), this was one winter which is mentioned amongst coldest winters of 20th century (colder than 2009/10 winter by near to 1c). 

For reference on enso years - see Eric Webb Twitter / 

WWW.WEBBERWEATHER.COM

Figure 1. December 1877 Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies via HADISST2.1

 

screen-shot-2020-10-21-at-1-42-53-pm_orig.thumb.png.c0fde46bc1e9e609efc6e50991c96936.png

Running NCEP archive data for 1916/17 shows lots of blocking. Early season Niña ridge arrives in early December following a very westerly and zonal November, and after a brief return to zonal at the end of December the ridge becomes quasi-permanent over Scandy bringing in what looks like a lot of cold air from the east. Sustained blocking.

I’ll take it. Sample size of one - let’s have a ENSO region of lower than -2. What can go wrong?!

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Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

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6 hours ago, Don said:

CFS really is adamant about a super Nina but still hope it is over doing it.  However, a super Nina may just be what the world needs right now to help at least temporarily curb the warming?

super nina will have no all effects on long term climate change, the effects will last just the normal time lag then once the next nino come along it will mean nothing, the only way ENSO would cool the planet would be a string of cold ENSO events but IMO ENSO is a symptom not a cause, eg if -  a string of super ninas occured and more often than nino events it would be because of an unexpected reversal in climate change not the cause i would say.

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22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

So true, that's why I'm still in the mild camp! wet at 17 degrees, wet at 5 degrees, err I'll take 17

we all know when winter proper starts, there will be a huge PV over Greenie, wih the Atlantic roaring away

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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25 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

You really don't get it do you? Folk like different seasons, they look forward and enjoy the prospect of that season, just like you do in early to mid Spring.

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2 minutes ago, markyo said:

You really don't get it do you? Folk like different seasons, they look forward and enjoy the prospect of that season, just like you do in early to mid Spring.

Exactly, it's like us telling him not to get excited about a hot spell in May. Of course you can get snow in November lol.

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42 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

We can definitely get decent snow in November. 1996, 2005, 2010 just a few of the more notable examples off the top of my head from round here, no doubt there's more. More recently we had a covering of snow in November 2017 as well. Right now there's nothing pointing to an above average November this year.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Snow in November...the GFS parallel (non operational) would I’m sure bring us a flake or two 🥶 but don’t tell everyone 🤫

 

image.thumb.png.21255074f6b417e5085bbdd81360a84d.pngimage.thumb.png.580b4d2197dfd560371372f4cf1e3064.png

Beautiful chart

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

NH view is even better on the eye😁

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.313a3e62e7c305a59fa131e7df08f1b9.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.2316f28151ad9aa98ec8c7e5a5d3eb39.png

Push that ahead another month and bingo!

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