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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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How easy is it for low pressure to dive down from north in American continent.Yet Europe is one large area of high pressure.When was the last time that a chunk of vortex actually relocated above Scandinavia or north of it,2010? Its either around Hudson Bay/Greenland or Eastern Siberia. 

gens_panel_vmk4.png

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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6 hours ago, jules216 said:

I have made up my mind. Going with the blend of 2007,2012 and 2017. The reason? Those were the three years with an incredibly good Boletus season in October. Boletus growth in autumn is very sensitive to the weather patterns about a month prior to their growth - precipitation,moisture in the air,sunshine hours and high night time minimum temperatures. Yesterday and today the season just exploded and its nearly November! 

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Not been following the thread so wondering if you mean Winters 2006/7, 11/12 and 16/17 or 7/8, 12/13 and 17/18. The former being among the worst ever Winters for snow here and the latter by recent standards very good ones?

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5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

We’ve been watching weather records being broken left, right and centre over the last 5 years or so. I’ve been trying to work out how much of it is due to increased media coverage and how much is actual increased frequency of extremes. As a historian I know quantity of data brings its own challenges, and we really can’t claim to know the whole truth about the pattern of extremes 100+ years ago. History is full of references to extreme weather contexts and references.

However, I’ve come to the conclusion that we have passed a tipping point, that warm records (and occasionally cold ones too) have become so obvious and frequent that the planet’s distress is there for all to see. Arctic sea ice extent (or lack of) is being reported in The Guardian but not so much else where in the U.K....and it is a grim watch. Siberian warmth was jaw dropping this summer. We now have unprecedented NA snow extent, and are watching a top end Hurricane season unfold. The vortex past winter was near record strength....the +IOD the same. We could go on and on.

Which basically means I agree. We will see 40 degrees in a U.K. summer before too long, and I also think we will witness a cold/snow event of significant proportions too....if not this year then before too many more pass by. The Beast is the sort of event I expect to see again even though warm and wet spells will probably outnumber cold and snowy ones many times over.

Im waffling. Yes - we will see interest this winter because extremes are here to stay for the foreseeable. The weather enthusiast in me is excited by this, like you. The global citizen in me is extremely gloomy. 

 

This is absolutely spot on. Climate change, after the years of theory and projection, is now becoming very observable (and has been for a few years now) and if enough methane is released into the atmosphere from Siberia (as reported this week) we really are in a dreadful situation

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WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Exclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

But I still think the UK will experience extreme cold events at some points in the next 10 winters too. Not many but when they do come they will be significant and possibly long-lasting as patterns seem to be sticking around longer these days. We'll also experience flooding events and extreme heat in the summer too, of course and those episodes will be the more frequent ones rather than cold episodes

Where the planet's climate is going to be in as little as 10 years is concerning to say the least. It's pretty concerning now

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It is getting close to that time when we look at the models for winter more closely.  I was heartened by this from the UKMO contingency planners forecast at the end of the October update:

’nevertheless, the chances of cold spells are higher for the season has been typically been the case in recent years’.

Well thanks for that!  But actually it is a massive plus that the UKMO are not writing winter off now, they did last year, with the infamous IOD and look how that went.  Although, given Covid,  I now miss so much the trudge across the swamp from the car park to the office during last winter, who knows when we will see those heady days again 😟

Today’s 12z at t240:

E85D948F-40F9-4CC0-9B83-570B05B509ED.thumb.png.047222f26d5f143e10c4075db86da5d1.png4059B464-6384-45B9-BEA7-84DC59AC607B.thumb.png.90fd94433608512b3be1f01aa823362c.pngB5E048DF-63AC-47DF-9709-3D7EF38B6F3D.thumb.png.1b044486ad3d648a0edc52d17b2fb2ed.png

Looks disturbed vortex on all, and maybe some drying out for the UK too.  Can’t say much beyond that at the moment but it will be interesting to watch things as we go through November with some interest for coldies...we will see...

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There are only 3 certainties in life - 1.taxes, 2.death,3. Eurohigh 🙂

Almost like a magic wand overrides anything else in the atmosphere and sets the anomalies to exact location come November, more less for duration of the winter, apart from the odd week of temporary amplification and then back to square one. Doesn't matter weather it is La Nina,neutral or EL Nino, we had it all in past years. Just look how similar is the current outlook to the combined anomaly of past 4 winters. Co incidents? I don't think so

sfMaEDC4.jpg

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7 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There are only 3 certainties in life - 1.taxes, 2.death,3. Eurohigh 🙂

Almost like a magic wand overrides anything else in the atmosphere and sets the anomalies to exact location come November, more less for duration of the winter, apart from the odd week of temporary amplification and then back to square one. Doesn't matter weather it is La Nina,neutral or EL Nino, we had it all in past years. Just look how similar is the current outlook to the combined anomaly of past 4 winters. Co incidents? I don't think so

sfMaEDC4.jpg

Is that a bone fide Euro high?

Looks a Sceuro to me..and can produce cold surface temps ?

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is that a bone fide Euro high?

Looks a Sceuro to me..and can produce cold surface temps ?

Its only really usefull if its starts shifting to the west or north.The tendency is to collapse back to continent as the Greenland/Hudson part of vortex is just too strong well that is the case of past winter experiences

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20 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There are only 3 certainties in life - 1.taxes, 2.death,3. Eurohigh 🙂

Almost like a magic wand overrides anything else in the atmosphere and sets the anomalies to exact location come November, more less for duration of the winter, apart from the odd week of temporary amplification and then back to square one. Doesn't matter weather it is La Nina,neutral or EL Nino, we had it all in past years. Just look how similar is the current outlook to the combined anomaly of past 4 winters. Co incidents? I don't think so

sfMaEDC4.jpg

Nothing wrong at all with that top chart. Sceuro high migrating towards the Urals... trough pushing into western USA. You correctly reference the standard global setup which sees a high pressure belt to the south and lower pressure to the north....and all winter cold opportunities hinge on disrupting that default setup. Opportunities for disruption are most certainly on the table - your top chart showing one of them. This has been said umpteen times before - but in early November it probably rings more true than at any other time.....: Patience Required!

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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Nothing wrong at all with that top chart. Sceuro high migrating towards the Urals... trough pushing into western USA. You correctly reference the standard global setup which sees a high pressure belt to the south and lower pressure to the north....and all winter cold opportunities hinge on disrupting that default setup. Opportunities for disruption are most certainly on the table - your top chart showing one of them. This has been said umpteen times before - but in early November it probably rings more true than at any other time.....: Patience Required!

I remember having this exact conversation this time last year when similar setup appeared but unfortunately didn't bring about any changes. What is quite common though even in the most diabolical recent winters that there is an opportunity of something cold between 25/11 and 10/12, there was at least one snow event in my area in past few years. I am eyeing a possibly wintry period for the last third of November.

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How are we going to trust EC seasonal with -NAO forecast for December if their extended version can't even forecast -NAO right with few weeks lead time? 

ElA5nAXXgAAzbw1.jpg

gensnh-31-1-216.png

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Very different to this time last year currently the jet was much further south last autumn giving that copious amounts of flooding.

As it came to early november it did give the first early snowfall covering since that famous late october 2008.

AVN_1_2019111000_1.png

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6 hours ago, jules216 said:

How are we going to trust EC seasonal with -NAO forecast for December if their extended version can't even forecast -NAO right with few weeks lead time? 

ElA5nAXXgAAzbw1.jpg

gensnh-31-1-216.png

That’s a GEFS chart, not ECM.

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6 hours ago, Freelancer said:

Very different to this time last year currently the jet was much further south last autumn giving that copious amounts of flooding.

As it came to early november it did give the first early snowfall covering since that famous late october 2008.

AVN_1_2019111000_1.png


We had a decent snow event here at the end of Oct 2012

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3 hours ago, Catacol said:

That’s a GEFS chart, not ECM.

I dont think that EPS looks a lot different for the same timeframe as GEFS

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On 18/10/2020 at 21:33, Roger J Smith said:

This is my take on winter 2020-21 ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts. 

Kept meaning to reply to this Roger and interesting that you're seeing the potential for a back loaded winter.

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8 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It was stronger in October 2010 and look what happened let’s just wait and see 😊

This looks very Central pacific though, not sure about 2010 but you really need the core of the very cold waters to be East based.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This looks very Central pacific though, not sure about 2010 but you really need the core of the very cold waters to be East based.

WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental...

 

 

anomp.11.1.2010.gif

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