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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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On 23/10/2020 at 12:48, LRD said:

Bearing in mind Dec 2010 was, in itself, a 1-in-100 year event even without the warming trend, then by definition, it's unlikely we'll see it in our lifetimes again. I hope I'm wrong. I wish every December - or at least every other December - could be like that (although I could have done with a bit more snow in the north home counties) but it's just not going to happen. Even a cold, dry frosty and foggy (but not necessarily snowy) December seems to be an increasingly rare thing these days

While you'll almost certainly be right that we won't see cold like Dec 2010 this winter, it's worth remembering that someone might have said the same thing back in 1981 (coldest Dec since 1890) and it only took 29 years rather than 100.  Similarly from a 'warm' perspective, it was unlikely April 2007's 11.2C CET would be exceeded as soon as 2011 even in a warming climate, especially since the May & June records have stood since the 1800s, but these things do seem to happen!  

We're certainly not overdue a sub-zero December but we're probably overdue a relatively cool anticyclonic one as you say.  I have fond memories of some calm and frosty December weather in the 2000s - e.g. 2001, 2005, 2008, 2009 - early winter seems to have been much more unsettled since 2011 in general.   

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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4 hours ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Average winters are good too and can throw up the odd surprise snow event!!

The 2018 beast from the east arrived during a average winter 

Well it arrived during Spring actually.  Although the stratospheric events that’s caused it were in winter, but there is a lag on these things.  

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2 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

While you'll almost certainly be right that we won't see cold like Dec 2010 this winter, it's worth remembering that someone might have said the same thing back in 1981 (coldest Dec since 1890) and it only took 29 years rather than 100.  Similarly from a 'warm' perspective, it was unlikely April 2007's 11.2C CET would be exceeded as soon as 2011 even in a warming climate, especially since the May & June records have stood since the 1800s, but these things do seem to happen!  

We're certainly not overdue a sub-zero December but we're probably overdue a relatively cool anticyclonic one as you say.  I have fond memories of some calm and frosty December weather in the 2000s - e.g. 2001, 2005, 2008, 2009 - early winter seems to have been much more unsettled since 2011 in general.   

Yes in recent years, we've had more anticyclonic conditions at times in November, come December in the main its been predominantly unsettled, there was a cold settled start to 2012 at least. I always expect first half of December to be very unsettled - settled weather is a bonus. I much prefer unsettled conditions then as there is every chance come christmas things calm down, a quiet start often flips and can't sustain itself.

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Right now I'm not feeling enthralled with Feb-March especially however Nov-Jan is on the table.

Ultimately for me we have two mildly positive factors (top 10 or 20 solar, -PDO) a negative factor (+1 QBO standard deviation) and a signal up in the air for Jan-March (we are on course for about -1.4 based on how we've tracked 2007 but we need to peak quickly.

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As ever, lots of mixed signals for the upcoming winter, last year it was all about the IOD, though I don't recall it being mentioned as a key influencer until the winter started. This year everything seems to be hinged on ENSO, a moderate La Nina and we may do ok for cold, a strong one and its curtains called. QBO seems to be doing another 16-17, but as we know on its own it can be a deceiver, many west QBO years produce cold winters and East QBO years mild ones.

The solar cycle factor will be tested, some believe years when we are coming out of solar minima such as this one increase chance of cold weather, it certainly happened during last solar cycle.

We've been struck a very poor hand in recent years for cold and snow, indeed every hand has been poor, and the probability of yet again another mild wet one has to be higher than a cold dry / snowy one. Hopes seem to have resided in SSW events and they have delivered on two occasions 2013 and 2018, but also gone bust such as 2019.

As always best to keep an open mind, lower your expectations and expect the unexpected. Given how dire the last two winters have been for cold and snow, my expectations are starting from an exceptionally low base state, gosh even a day of moderate snowfall that doesn't thaw as soon as it stops would be something special!

 

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14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

As ever, lots of mixed signals for the upcoming winter, last year it was all about the IOD, though I don't recall it being mentioned as a key influencer until the winter started. This year everything seems to be hinged on ENSO, a moderate La Nina and we may do ok for cold, a strong one and its curtains called. QBO seems to be doing another 16-17, but as we know on its own it can be a deceiver, many west QBO years produce cold winters and East QBO years mild ones.

 

The solar cycle factor will be tested, some believe years when we are coming out of solar minima such as this one increase chance of cold weather, it certainly happened during last solar cycle.

We've been struck a very poor hand in recent years for cold and snow, indeed every hand has been poor, and the probability of yet again another mild wet one has to be higher than a cold dry / snowy one. Hopes seem to have resided in SSW events and they have delivered on two occasions 2013 and 2018, but also gone bust such as 2019.

As always best to keep an open mind, lower your expectations and expect the unexpected. Given how dire the last two winters have been for cold and snow, my expectations are starting from an exceptionally low base state, gosh even a day of moderate snowfall that doesn't thaw as soon as it stops would be something special!

 

You are not wrong there Damian

2009/10 and 2010/11 where both coming out of the solar cycle minimum i believe and produced the wintry goods but also solar max has produced

i think it's to do with other factors/puzzles that also have to align correctly and there are so many of them

like i posted in the mod thread the other night

but like you say,it cannot get any worse than last winter and i think we are in a better position this time,,,,hopefully.

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3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

As ever, lots of mixed signals for the upcoming winter, last year it was all about the IOD, though I don't recall it being mentioned as a key influencer until the winter started. This year everything seems to be hinged on ENSO, a moderate La Nina and we may do ok for cold, a strong one and its curtains called. QBO seems to be doing another 16-17, but as we know on its own it can be a deceiver, many west QBO years produce cold winters and East QBO years mild ones.

The solar cycle factor will be tested, some believe years when we are coming out of solar minima such as this one increase chance of cold weather, it certainly happened during last solar cycle.

We've been struck a very poor hand in recent years for cold and snow, indeed every hand has been poor, and the probability of yet again another mild wet one has to be higher than a cold dry / snowy one. Hopes seem to have resided in SSW events and they have delivered on two occasions 2013 and 2018, but also gone bust such as 2019.

As always best to keep an open mind, lower your expectations and expect the unexpected. Given how dire the last two winters have been for cold and snow, my expectations are starting from an exceptionally low base state, gosh even a day of moderate snowfall that doesn't thaw as soon as it stops would be something special!

 

La nina enso for winter 2010-2011 was super strong and we got the coldest December in 100 years lots of peeps in here take every negative teleconnection as gospel and every teleconnection has to be perfectly aligned to produce cold afraid it don't work like that but if i was to make my prediction on the incoming winter and I'm worth my weight in kangaroo dung in here the biggest player i believe this year is we are coming out of solar minimum and new cycle is here that's our ACE BALL.

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Here is an interesting read:-

blank.jpg
BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

La Niña is now present in the tropical Pacific and forecasters are suggesting these conditions...

and the strong La nina event that started to take place in July that year,interesting.

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

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Very interesting and informed comments as ever.  Each winter we try to weigh up the various teleconnections and as Catacol states the understanding and weighting of these in different scenarios is key to trying to work out what might happen. Living within a few miles of the south coast of England means that I approach every winter more in hope than expectation and 'hope  springs eternal' as the old saying goes. Every so often the 100 to 1 outsider or the once in a hundred year event like December 2010 comes along to feed the snow hungry southerner.. like myself. Could it be that this winter will see La Nina do enough to front load the season but then some favourable Atmospheric dynamics attack the vortex enough to disrupt the normal Nina late winter mild pattern into something more seasonally interesting.  We'll have to wait and see as ever, we can but hope.

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On 25/10/2020 at 08:33, SLEETY said:

Started about 6pm in the London area Christmas Day 1927 from a weather book i was reading years ago.By midnight countless roads were blocked by snow  and a train become snowbound in Alton,Hampshire.Their was an 8ft high snowdrift a mile long in the Chilterns!

 

Repeat this year would be most welcome.

Got an original Times newspaper from the 27th December 1927 can be seen here.

WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK

The Christmas Blizzard of 1927 was one of the worst blizzards of the 20th Century to hit the south.On Christmas Eve, there was a...

 

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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

As ever, lots of mixed signals for the upcoming winter, last year it was all about the IOD, though I don't recall it being mentioned as a key influencer until the winter started. This year everything seems to be hinged on ENSO, a moderate La Nina and we may do ok for cold, a strong one and its curtains called. QBO seems to be doing another 16-17, but as we know on its own it can be a deceiver, many west QBO years produce cold winters and East QBO years mild ones.

The solar cycle factor will be tested, some believe years when we are coming out of solar minima such as this one increase chance of cold weather, it certainly happened during last solar cycle.

We've been struck a very poor hand in recent years for cold and snow, indeed every hand has been poor, and the probability of yet again another mild wet one has to be higher than a cold dry / snowy one. Hopes seem to have resided in SSW events and they have delivered on two occasions 2013 and 2018, but also gone bust such as 2019.

As always best to keep an open mind, lower your expectations and expect the unexpected. Given how dire the last two winters have been for cold and snow, my expectations are starting from an exceptionally low base state, gosh even a day of moderate snowfall that doesn't thaw as soon as it stops would be something special!

 

It's not only the strength of the La Nina but also the type. CB or East based. Now, it seems it will be a CB. So we can expect a zonal winter. Stratospheric wise it points to the same direction. I think this winter is quite easy to predict.

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20 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Therefore, based on the well establishing basin-wide La Nina development, it is intuitive to expect the added westerly inertia within the atmospheric circulation to be very rapidly scrubbed out once more, and the cue for angular momentum tendency to collapse once more. As a result ,there is anticipation of the upstream pattern showing signs of re-amplifying. The GWO manifests such an upstream deceleration of momentum by a fast orbit back to the La Nina transitional Phase 8 and likely resume a re-coupled atmospheric/ocean phase state  Phase 1/2/3

What does this mean in simple NWP related synoptic weather terms?

 

NW influence, possible northerly at times. Timing is tricky and we need to remember that the decay of the MJO as it hits the Niña wall of colder water is itself a forecast. Even ENSO forecasts at one month range have been inaccurate in specific detail - see the U.K. Met ENSO forecast differences between the August and September runs.

But regardless of specific detail over timing and extent the overall direction of teleconnections can be successfully predicted. The MJO will decay....destructive interference in the Niña signal will fade, and the default Niña tendency towards a mid Atlantic ridge will return. This is a key plank in the cooler than average potential for W Europe in December. How much colder? We can only wait and see. As Tamara says - the extent to which the vortex is able to set up shop through mid November may dictate just how much traction the ridge can get.

Looking further ahead a more zonal January looks likely to me at this stage as the MJO returns to the maritimes and the mid Atlantic ridge signal fades. February is a long way off but a wave 2 induced SSW is not beyond the bounds of possibility this season. 

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13 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

You are not wrong there Damian

2009/10 and 2010/11 where both coming out of the solar cycle minimum i believe and produced the wintry goods but also solar max has produced

i think it's to do with other factors/puzzles that also have to align correctly and there are so many of them

like i posted in the mod thread the other night

but like you say,it cannot get any worse than last winter and i think we are in a better position this time,,,,hopefully.

2010 followed a top 10 spotless year, 2011 followed a low-spotless year.

2021 will follow a top 20 if not top 10 spotless year (we are likely to finish somewhere close to 10th).

In that sense 2011 did not benefit from the solar state much, we should to a greater degree (top 20 years are cold to average during Dec-Jan, often have average or mild Feb's).

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The other thing that's worth remembering to highlight how too much focus on one teleconnection can be misleading, in amongst 2010/11 being suggested as an analogue partly on the basis of La Nina, is that from memory, we did stand on the verge of another major freeze during February which the UK was unfortunate to miss out on being just on the western periphery of the initial action. 

We started to see the core of the vortex shift towards the Western hemisphere, allowing for high pressure build to our N and E during week 2:

image.thumb.png.5fb736c8ad14324e05eb449a291eeecc.png

This wedge started to become more substantial through week 3 and left the UK right on the precipice of another snowy spell wtih Atlantic systems looking poised to duck underneath the expanding block:

image.thumb.png.b057ce8e9b73d46cd67b8e051ab3c06a.png

Sadly we ended up with just a touch too much of a positive tilt to the jet and the Atlantic systems came roaring through:

image.thumb.png.3d30f909818a5e4df4af98ab04d254e3.png

 

Whilst that ultimately failed, you can see how close we were to a return to something substantially colder again through February - so there's no magic bullet to analogue matching, particularly when taking one or two teleconnections in isolation.

 

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3 hours ago, Catacol said:

NW influence, possible northerly at times. Timing is tricky and we need to remember that the decay of the MJO as it hits the Niña wall of colder water is itself a forecast. Even ENSO forecasts at one month range have been inaccurate in specific detail - see the U.K. Met ENSO forecast differences between the August and September runs.

But regardless of specific detail over timing and extent the overall direction of teleconnections can be successfully predicted. The MJO will decay....destructive interference in the Niña signal will fade, and the default Niña tendency towards a mid Atlantic ridge will return. This is a key plank in the cooler than average potential for W Europe in December. How much colder? We can only wait and see. As Tamara says - the extent to which the vortex is able to set up shop through mid November may dictate just how much traction the ridge can get.

Looking further ahead a more zonal January looks likely to me at this stage as the MJO returns to the maritimes and the mid Atlantic ridge signal fades. February is a long way off but a wave 2 induced SSW is not beyond the bounds of possibility this season. 

Didn't she mean that after a short period of rised AAM, in the first part of november we will see some northern blocking/ Atlantic Ridge, followed by a rapid decline to zonal influenced by wQBO. I read her comments (I can be wrong, English not my monther language) that we get just short periods of blocking just as in the last months (she mentioned august and september warmth)

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5 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Didn't she mean that after a short period of rised AAM, in the first part of november we will see some northern blocking/ Atlantic Ridge, followed by a rapid decline to zonal influenced by wQBO. I read her comments (I can be wrong, English not my monther language) that we get just short periods of blocking just as in the last months (she mentioned august and september warmth)

Rising AAM will destructively interfere with the Niña signal, providing a Euro High and Atlantic trough for as long as the MJO tries to batter its way to phase 7...but once that destructive interference fades then the early winter Niña default of a mid Atlantic ridge and Euro trough will return. NW mainly, occasionally N. So - signs of a Niña Atlantic ridge at the start of the month probably with a fairly slack Euro trough, then disrupted by lag impacts of rising AAM through mid to late Nov creating a Euro High and more zonal Atlantic flow... and then a return in December to an Atlantic ridge scenario. December unlikely to be mild. 

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11 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Very interesting and informed comments as ever.  Each winter we try to weigh up the various teleconnections and as Catacol states the understanding and weighting of these in different scenarios is key to trying to work out what might happen. Living within a few miles of the south coast of England means that I approach every winter more in hope than expectation and 'hope  springs eternal' as the old saying goes. Every so often the 100 to 1 outsider or the once in a hundred year event like December 2010 comes along to feed the snow hungry southerner.. like myself. Could it be that this winter will see La Nina do enough to front load the season but then some favourable Atmospheric dynamics attack the vortex enough to disrupt the normal Nina late winter mild pattern into something more seasonally interesting.  We'll have to wait and see as ever, we can but hope.

That would be the coldie best scenario I think. Cold/Normal/Cold sandwich through the Dec-Feb season. More realistically? A cool December under a predominantly NW flow that will bring cold rain rather than snow (though we can hope for more of that 2010 style stuff in moments of heady optimism) followed by a Jan that could be grim if Niña goes strong and gets a grip. Stormy perhaps. And then - and I’ve said it more than once now - maybe a chance of late season blocking in favourable places precipitated by an SSW or at least some lag effect strat disruption. Scandy High perhaps with undercutting Atlantic flow. Chance of a 1 week style snowy easterly in the mix.

There are several variations to this pattern that could conceivably take hold - not least the nightmare scenario of a strong Niña under a wQBO that gives us another charged vortex season with strong coupling and little in the way of realistic sustained blocking. But equally a moderate Nina under a fading wQBO and a westerly nudging Siberian block forcing the jet southerly and then enhanced by a genuine vortex split (westerly progression of the Siberian high important to precipitate this) could also occur and then all kinds of blocked battleground events could occur and we could end up with a frigid spell.

As ever - we will see. Synoptics will fall as they will in our tiny corner of the world....we will watch, hope, try to learn and search for signs. Many drivers still to evolve over the next 5-6 weeks. UKMO ENSO forecast week 2 of Nov, alongside ECM ENSO, will be important. I really don’t want Niña to drop below -1.5 though we have never seen a super Niña to match the 2 super Ninos of the last 25 years - so if it is going to go strong let’s have it go very strong and take us into uncharted ENSO territory.....

 

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Last post tonight - yet another ECM providing a wave 2 precursor in early Nov.
image.thumb.png.5fdedd9ba9d6eb42957d50e873548b4c.png

Whether sufficient warmth can be fired into the vortex to perturb it significantly in December we will have to wait to see. Could potentially help produce a tropospheric northerly in December as the mid Atlantic ridge returns. Never going to be a knock out blow to the strat  - but the first perhaps of a succession of hits, as the global wave pattern ebbs and flows, that could produce a split later in winter.

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

That would be the coldie best scenario I think. Cold/Normal/Cold sandwich through the Dec-Feb season. More realistically? A cool December under a predominantly NW flow that will bring cold rain rather than snow (though we can hope for more of that 2010 style stuff in moments of heady optimism) followed by a Jan that could be grim if Niña goes strong and gets a grip. Stormy perhaps. And then - and I’ve said it more than once now - maybe a chance of late season blocking in favourable places precipitated by an SSW or at least some lag effect strat disruption. Scandy High perhaps with undercutting Atlantic flow. Chance of a 1 week style snowy easterly in the mix.

There are several variations to this pattern that could conceivably take hold - not least the nightmare scenario of a strong Niña under a wQBO that gives us another charged vortex season with strong coupling and little in the way of realistic sustained blocking. But equally a moderate Nina under a fading wQBO and a westerly nudging Siberian block forcing the jet southerly and then enhanced by a genuine vortex split (westerly progression of the Siberian high important to precipitate this) could also occur and then all kinds of blocked battleground events could occur and we could end up with a frigid spell.

As ever - we will see. Synoptics will fall as they will in our tiny corner of the world....we will watch, hope, try to learn and search for signs. Many drivers still to evolve over the next 5-6 weeks. UKMO ENSO forecast week 2 of Nov, alongside ECM ENSO, will be important. I really don’t want Niña to drop below -1.5 though we have never seen a super Niña to match the 2 super Ninos of the last 25 years - so if it is going to go strong let’s have it go very strong and take us into uncharted ENSO territory.....

 

Good to read your thoughts. Polar maritime air if cold enough can produce snow, especially in the north and anywhere with height, but more so as the season wears on, thanks to SST values. However, there looks to be plentiful cold air likely to develop on tap to our NW, so moderation may be limited.

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Start of November

Spot the difference anyone with these runs

2010                                                            2020

archives-2010-11-2-0-0.thumb.png.50ef0d076f1822d1149f29d7d11ffec3.png1901207226_cfs-0-17402_11_2020.thumb.png.7f79743ff7917e3e863c68249a81468b.png

A bit of de ja vu showing up here on this CFS run vs the archived chart from the same day in 2010.

Slight differences in the exact positioning of the high and low pressure areas but the same result none the less. Both feature very mild SW winds to start November off. The low pressure areas closest to the UK have a very similar result in the isobar patterns over the UK itself too.

The high pressure areas may be a bit further east but like in 2010 there's also 2 common central regions, one in S Europe and the other around the usual Azores region.

End of November

Now check out the differences with these runs on the 30th November

2010                                                            2020

archives-2010-11-30-0-0.thumb.png.5efc735e96e1d750bf559e07d1520bff.png416665849_cfs-0-83430_11_2020.thumb.png.1b78fdfd52d6e9d11cb98789f82e7f8b.png

Another 2010 repeat anyone?

Both 2010 archive chart as well as the CFS 06Z run feature northern blocking even if the placement is different. What both do feature is low pressure to our S and SE with a cold NE or E flow bringing in cold air and a potential snow risk too

The main difference is where the northern blocking is placed. In 2010 it was from Iceland to Scandinavia. On the predicted 2020 chart it is a stronger Greenland feature stretching down to Iceland with lower pressure over Scandinavia. That could mean access to a pool of even colder air within a day or so if the pattern can stick

Compare 30th November 2010 with CFS 06Z prediction for 30th November 2020

2010                                                           2020

image.thumb.png.1702d7e60aa3cfd2101998145f7b266f.pngimage.thumb.png.7f70699ff477996be75adeeb0655444d.png

In 2010 the colder air was already more established to our east at this stage so some very cold air there waiting to flood westwards towards the UK. In the 2020 chart very cold air has made it to Scandinavia but look at the top of the chart. Some extreme cold air is waiting in the wings up to the north and if the pattern sticks this should make its way down into Scandinavia then possibly the UK too.

A 2010 repeat is a long shot but we do have some very similar conditions at play this year compared with 2010

We are getting the long fetch SW winds at the start of November like we did in 2010

We had some northern blocking during October like in 2010

The Atlantic looks as if the tripole is reforming like it did in 2010 too

We have a moderate/strong La Nina like in 2010 and this followed an El Nino, just like in 2010.

The QBO is westerly like in 2010

We have low solar activity and are in the ascending part of the solar cycle just like in 2010

Hurricane activity is high like in 2010 also

The polar vortex is ramping up like it did in 2010 also and if 2010 plays out then it may stay strong but not couple up to the troposphere. Lets just hope we can get a SSW early January to prevent us getting a repeat of January and February 2011 where the cold went and never came back again

 

All I can say here is that similar patterns have shown themselves so far this autumn to 2010's patterns. Looking rather good if you want a December 2010 repeat this year with so many similar things happening at the same point of the year as in 2010

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Shouldn't pattern match, but mid Nov 09 brought similar synoptics, long fetch SW winds and copious rain here,  serious flooding, a month later and we were plunged into the freezer. 

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26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Shouldn't pattern match, but mid Nov 09 brought similar synoptics, long fetch SW winds and copious rain here,  serious flooding, a month later and we were plunged into the freezer. 

It’s interesting to note that the absolute soaker Novembers of previous years have all led to cold synoptics at some point in December and further into the winter ie 2012, 2009, 2002, 2000. Last year is an exception. 2002 was a very quick turnaround to easterlies in the second week of December... just a shame it didn’t sustain. The following easterly in early January was much more potent.

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I have made up my mind. Going with the blend of 2007,2012 and 2017. The reason? Those were the three years with an incredibly good Boletus season in October. Boletus growth in autumn is very sensitive to the weather patterns about a month prior to their growth - precipitation,moisture in the air,sunshine hours and high night time minimum temperatures. Yesterday and today the season just exploded and its nearly November! 

lmBcqD3P.jpg

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2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

You should patent the Boletus index quick!!

it would still probably beat the OPI easily😀. The funny thing is that I have seen US forecasters use 2007 and 2012 as analogs for this winter so it may still prove to be a good indicator😀 Julius boletus index

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