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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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I guess we shouldn't be alarmed if we're seeing charts like this appear during November. After all, I'd expect it more in November than after New Year - it's the wettest month for a reason. 

archives-2010-11-2-12-0.png archives-2010-11-11-12-0.png archives-2009-11-19-0-0.png

What we haven't had in a while is a benign first half of November.

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Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

I vanish because I find spring and summer dull in weather terms. I wake up a bit when a thunderstorm may occur - but otherwise it gets warm, it gets dry and every year we get 2 or 3 hot spells now. It

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13 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I guess we shouldn't be alarmed if we're seeing charts like this appear during November. After all, I'd expect it more in November than after New Year - it's the wettest month for a reason. 

archives-2010-11-2-12-0.png archives-2010-11-11-12-0.png archives-2009-11-19-0-0.png

What we haven't had in a while is a benign first half of November.

November, the month where the song "November Rain" comes true. 

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10 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The charts look about right for early November and will settle down late on with a cold end to the month 

Can you explain how that chart will lead to cold?

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Just now, Penicuikblizzard said:

Not that particular chart will lead to cold but the general theme will,,,,that chart won’t be as is come the 11th November anyway 😁

Not to sure once that PV sets up to our NW it can hang around in the same place for Months.all speculation at that range but my hopes of a front loaded winter are not quite as positive as a week ago.

C.S

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These are the exact type of synoptics you want to see heading into November...

image.thumb.png.b0c702b433c4137fbf766d5c786039e3.png

3-4 weeks down the line= ragged TPV

A lot of the classic winters feature the same preceding N Hemi set up- namely a negatively tilted trough coming up against HP towards Russia

image.thumb.png.e56d5f61f99104ffd219ba680d9f0cbb.png

Edited by CreweCold
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16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

These are the exact type of synoptics you want to see heading into November...

image.thumb.png.b0c702b433c4137fbf766d5c786039e3.png

3-4 weeks down the line= ragged TPV

A lot of the classic winters feature the same preceding N Hemi set up- namely a negatively tilted trough coming up against HP towards Russia

image.thumb.png.e56d5f61f99104ffd219ba680d9f0cbb.png

Very good setup for vortex stress. Wave 2 impacts would follow in the stratosphere.

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This is my take on winter 2020-21 ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts. 

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Others may know better but this isn't good news - 

WWW.CLIMATE.GOV

La Niña is here and likely to continue through the winter. Our blogger covers current tropical Pacific conditions and what La Niña can...

 

Suggests low pressure coming across the Atlantic and a mild pattern with the cold away well away to the North.

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2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

This is my take on winter 2020-21 ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts. 

pffft! no snow here then through Dec and Jan, not surprising though, being realistic the Atlantic will dominate

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1 minute ago, Baz Cheshire said:

Others may know better but this isn't good news - 

WWW.CLIMATE.GOV

La Niña is here and likely to continue through the winter. Our blogger covers current tropical Pacific conditions and what La Niña can...

 

Suggests low pressure coming across the Atlantic and a mild pattern with the cold away well away to the North.

hardly surprising, the Atlantic dominates more now than it did in the good old years up to about '99

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

pffft! no snow here then through Dec and Jan, not surprising though, being realistic the Atlantic will dominate

Looking at what the Americans think and with the ongoing general warming we could be looking at a record number of 'named' storms. and probably some sort of mild/flooding record broken at some point.

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I hope to see some polar NWly flows this winter. They make for some of my most favourite night timelapses, Cumulonimbus and snow falling from them

 

I'd love to see them, but for low lying areas like mine these days especially early in the winter with the warmth of the Irish Sea, it often means rain/sleet. that's if we get them at all now.

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4 minutes ago, Baz Cheshire said:

I'd love to see them, but for low lying areas like mine these days especially early in the winter with the warmth of the Irish Sea, it often means rain/sleet. that's if we get them at all now.

Aye same here, Irish sea is too warm generally

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1 minute ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

I just hate the cold and wish I lived on a tropical island where the minimum temp is 25c. But that is just me.

we all do! uk does suck, especially winters, would love also to live in a place that gets winters

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4 hours ago, MP-R said:

I guess we shouldn't be alarmed if we're seeing charts like this appear during November. After all, I'd expect it more in November than after New Year - it's the wettest month for a reason. 

But aren't we supposed to have heights towards Greenland going by some seasonal models?...it just looks the same old same but even more disturbed, only seems a week or so ago a few on here were lamenting what November might bring.😅

Edited by Froze were the Days
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5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

kind of agree, think the chance of cold spells is a bit higher this year, thought this myself before seeing this, the colder it is, more virus will spread and see R number go above 2

Apparently 4c is the temperature the virus likes best....

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2 hours ago, Baz Cheshire said:

I'd love to see them, but for low lying areas like mine these days especially early in the winter with the warmth of the Irish Sea, it often means rain/sleet. that's if we get them at all now.

It will be interesting to see how things go because so far we haven't had a mild Autumn so unless it's an exceptionally mild November I reckon sea temps might be a bit depressed going into Winter. It's been pretty cool this month as was September. But overall having said that I'm not a huge fan of snow from the Irish Sea as it tends to be fleeting, slushy but snow is snow and I'll take it.

I just love a proper beast with the powdery snow with drifts and you just don't need to worry about marginality like you do with a polar maritime/nw airflow. I know places in the west of the region don't tend to benefit from an easterly but round here it's the best direction when we get it full on.

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