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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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5 hours ago, Catacol said:

Not many in the U.K. will be hoping for a rerun of 1998/99. Mild and no snow throughout for the vast majority. 

Winter 98-99 overall was a mild one, but had a few brief wintry moments. Early December brought a short northerly and snow to NE parts at least. There was a brief bit of snow from frontal activity around the 22nd Dec, and a big more 28th, I'm recalling events here so perhaps wasnt widespread. January brought a bit if snow for NW parts thanks to cold Nw flow. Early Feb, 5-12th brought some general snow thanks to a cold northerly.

 

Admittedly it wasnt great, but better than many recent winters since 2012-2013.

There are comparisons in terms of ENSO but not solar cycle, we had come out of the minima period by then and rapidly approaching a strong maxima period.

November 98 was quite cold with alot of foggy frosty weather especially one-month. 

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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Just looking at the datasets and it is surprising they were so different.

On a PDO basis they both pretty negative. On a ONI basis they were pretty similar too. On a solar basis the winter of 2011 was not low solar so again similar and in QBO terms both were similar although the +QBO less developed heading into the winter of 1999 (arguably a good thing). Both first year flip Nina's too. 

And yet 2011 behaved like a (extreme example) of a classic moderate Nina composite winter while 1999 was out of step from Dec-Feb (Oct-Nov and March largely fit). 

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43 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Just looking at the datasets and it is surprising they were so different.

On a PDO basis they both pretty negative. On a ONI basis they were pretty similar too. On a solar basis the winter of 2011 was not low solar so again similar and in QBO terms both were similar although the +QBO less developed heading into the winter of 1999 (arguably a good thing). Both first year flip Nina's too. 

And yet 2011 behaved like a (extreme example) of a classic moderate Nina composite winter while 1999 was out of step from Dec-Feb (Oct-Nov and March largely fit). 

Possibly something to mention would be the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 and would this have such impact on weather to possibly play a part in 2010-11 winter in particularly December 2010. Again, could be nothing in this although would be interesting to see if any studies were carried out on this and how high lat eruptions can lead to increased blocking in immediate future.

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21 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Possibly something to mention would be the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 and would this have such impact on weather to possibly play a part in 2010-11 winter in particularly December 2010. Again, could be nothing in this although would be interesting to see if any studies were carried on this. 

I doubt it had anything to do with it imo. Remember we already had a good cold spell mid dec 2009 - mid jan 2010. Winter 09/10 was the coldest in many yrs and I think what happened in dec 2010 was a kind of follow on.

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Eruption was not especially large in S02 emmisions so I doubt it was that.

1999 was also the more anomolous winter even if 2011 was overly kind in Dec-Jan.

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12 hours ago, jules216 said:

Did you not get any snow with these synoptics?

archives-1998-12-5-0-0.png

archives-1999-2-8-0-0.png

No. 1998/99 was a grim winter - wet and mild. Early Feb brought some snow to the north of Scotland, hills of Wales and the odd shower off the back of that low on 8/9 Feb...but a poor affair overall. In both your charts the Azores high is in control. A few days before your Feb chart this was the picture - no embedded cold to work from. Horrible +NAO. Classic Nina - the fear for this year if things go wrong!

image.thumb.png.14cd6d412a0780c42ad9bf45d401411b.png

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7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Winter 98-99 overall was a mild one, but had a few brief wintry moments. Early December brought a short northerly and snow to NE parts at least. There was a brief bit of snow from frontal activity around the 22nd Dec, and a big more 28th, I'm recalling events here so perhaps wasnt widespread. January brought a bit if snow for NW parts thanks to cold Nw flow. Early Feb, 5-12th brought some general snow thanks to a cold northerly.

 

Admittedly it wasnt great, but better than many recent winters since 2012-2013.

There are comparisons in terms of ENSO but not solar cycle, we had come out of the minima period by then and rapidly approaching a strong maxima period.

November 98 was quite cold with alot of foggy frosty weather especially one-month. 

Yes 98/99 wasn't great but it was a bit better than the last two Winters we've had. 99/00 I don't remember much about it so must have been pretty mediocre. 00/01 was quite good though. Turned properly cold in late December with some significant snowfall. And the February wasn't too bad either, again with snowfall. Between 1997 and 2008 it was one of the better Winters for snow & cold in what was a mostly poor decade for it really. Most Winters only managed a brief covering of snow. Big flip to cold from late 2008 through to 2013 though and apart from beast from the east in 2018 we've been back to square one from 2014. Let's see how this Winter unravels though.

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I really hope we do not get a rerun of winter 98 99 that winter was grim I don’t really remember seeing snow that winter. 99 2000 winter we only had one Snow fl lasted a day or so if I remember correctly. 😬

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19 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

It's a shame i cannot remember the 95 event (too young, i have vague memories of the august and jan 97 as my earliest).

In the 2010-2013 period i was in BD11 and LS27 and we did get 29cm on Jan 6th 2010, 23cm on Dec 2nd 2010 and probably above 20cm in late Jan 13 (i had measured 16cm but was away for the final snowfall and it was melting when i came back). So we got close (with the aid of height).

The January 95 snow event in Leeds was unbelievable. At 5pm it was raining very heavy bouncing off the floor. All of sudden it turned into massive heavy snowflakes. Within minutes it had formed a layer of slush and within 3 hours we had 40cm on the ground. My mum had to walk from the city centre the 4 miles home. I also remember it was the same night Eric Cantona Kung fu kicked the Palace fan

image.jpg
WWW.GOOGLE.CO.UK

The 'beast from the east' may be less severe than predicted - but over 20 years ago, Yorkshire was...

 

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21 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

November looks interesting on the CFS (yes, I know it's the CFS). 

11_2020_18z_500.png

This get complicated by replying with someone else's tweet (apologies if anyone feels it belongs in the twitter thread). Simon Lee's words not mine may add support... 

 

IMG_20201018_095653.jpg

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8 minutes ago, Griff said:

This get complicated by replying with someone else's tweet (apologies if anyone feels it belongs in the twitter thread). Simon Lee's words not mine may add support... 

 

IMG_20201018_095653.jpg

Yes it does but if majority of models are to be believed January and February would revert back to +NAO.Be uncanny if it did happen like that akin to 2010.In this part of the world it was very cold from mid November till about 28th December and then that was it for frost and snow as it was mild and damp January & February.Interesting times.

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13 minutes ago, Griff said:

This get complicated by replying with someone else's tweet (apologies if anyone feels it belongs in the twitter thread). Simon Lee's words not mine may add support... 

 

IMG_20201018_095653.jpg

Do like look of Meteo-France for February though-nice Scandi block would I would have thought give a cold UK with winds from the east?😉

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26 minutes ago, Griff said:

This get complicated by replying with someone else's tweet (apologies if anyone feels it belongs in the twitter thread). Simon Lee's words not mine may add support... 

 

IMG_20201018_095653.jpg

That makes me feel better because December and January on the CFS was a bit "meh!". February was ok.

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22 hours ago, jules216 said:

Did you not get any snow with these synoptics?

archives-1998-12-5-0-0.png

archives-1999-2-8-0-0.png

 

9 hours ago, Catacol said:

No. 1998/99 was a grim winter - wet and mild. Early Feb brought some snow to the north of Scotland, hills of Wales and the odd shower off the back of that low on 8/9 Feb...but a poor affair overall. In both your charts the Azores high is in control. A few days before your Feb chart this was the picture - no embedded cold to work from. Horrible +NAO. Classic Nina - the fear for this year if things go wrong!

image.thumb.png.14cd6d412a0780c42ad9bf45d401411b.png

 

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

Winter 1998/99 was poor for those in the S and W. If you were in the N or E then the cold snaps were generally good for snow. I remember how often there were snow showers down the E coast and in Scotland but out to the S and W it was either dry or you got rain or sleet at best. I think those in the N and E got the direct Arctic hit whilst those further W got moderated air from the N Atlantic.

4th and especially 5th December 1998 got a little bit of snow, especially in the N and E as mentioned before with a small system diving SE overnight from the 4th into the 5th with snow on its N and E flank, rain further W and S.

11th to 12th January 1999 snow event was good for all away from the SW especially and the S coastal regions

February 7th to 11th 1999 was like with the cold spells this winter a mostly N and E affair again. The system on the 8th behaved in a similar way to the one from early December 1998 with snow on the N and E side and rain further S and W again. Otherwise snow showers in the N and E for most of that time

In that February 8th 1999 forecast that nice little cluster of snow showers south of Newcastle came inland during the Monday night and gave me a nice little covering of snow, the deepest one of the whole of that winter

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On 17/10/2020 at 09:35, AFC Snow said:

I am too young to remember him but this guy seems like a mild ramper😆

No not a mild ramper he loved delivering a snowy forecast, I remember his forecast in early January 1985 and under a very cold North easterly flow a warm front was approaching from the north west, pointing to the pressure chart his comment was "don't be fooled by that warm front, the air behind it is about as warm as a polar bears packed lunch" classic. He was right and that warm front brought 10cms of snow to London although places further west had sleet.

Andy

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17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Winter 98-99 overall was a mild one, but had a few brief wintry moments. Early December brought a short northerly and snow to NE parts at least. There was a brief bit of snow from frontal activity around the 22nd Dec, and a big more 28th, I'm recalling events here so perhaps wasnt widespread. January brought a bit if snow for NW parts thanks to cold Nw flow. Early Feb, 5-12th brought some general snow thanks to a cold northerly.

 

Admittedly it wasnt great, but better than many recent winters since 2012-2013.

There are comparisons in terms of ENSO but not solar cycle, we had come out of the minima period by then and rapidly approaching a strong maxima period.

November 98 was quite cold with alot of foggy frosty weather especially one-month. 

Not a great winter but I can think of many worse including the last one! December 1998 brought several light snowfalls with more in February, not great but I recorded snow lying on 7 mornings max depth 6cms. Better than the one morning of slush last winter!

Andy

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2 hours ago, Griff said:

This get complicated by replying with someone else's tweet (apologies if anyone feels it belongs in the twitter thread). Simon Lee's words not mine may add support... 

 

IMG_20201018_095653.jpg

Just a thought, the German model (DWD) was one of the few seasonal models that did not go for the northern blocking in the disappointing winter of 2018/19. For December onwards looks like it's currently forecasting high pressure on the scene and somewhat more +NAO for February, one to watch.

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On 17/10/2020 at 09:43, Dancerwithwings said:

What’ a chart.......no words needed 🥰

E970BC30-103A-4D1A-BEE6-7B44FD93E7D7.thumb.png.f97368096f2eecf8628d2a93ddce889b.png

snow in the south east 

did the chart go wrong or something. 

this winter is not going to be like that trust me. 

If only it was. 

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6 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I have a good feeling for this winter. 

Given covid, I can just see us having a cold one....only making the situation worse. 

It is called sod's law! 

kind of agree, think the chance of cold spells is a bit higher this year, thought this myself before seeing this, the colder it is, more virus will spread and see R number go above 2

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Both 1998 and 2010 featured flat pattern at the end of October same as advocated by GFS 12Z if you look at jet stream profile 2010 is a very good match but god allmighty the Atlantic jet of 2020 is on steroids already

archivesnh-1998-10-25-12-5.png

archivesnh-2010-10-30-0-5.png

gfsnh-5-246.png

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