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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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Weather charts looking good for snow peraonally i love winter but it always seems a long drag without snow i think 2020/21 will be remembered for bad things but i also think it will be remembered for snow. The winter break at school feels too long the fact that arriving back in the dark from the bus doesn't help so tthanks for helping me fet excited about winter i can't believe it's october and already i'm thinking snow is coming soon. I love learning at home i listen to ted talks at home but at school i can barely learn a thing so the fact that this winter looks good is getting me through, this is my first year on here and already i'm ramping up winter with actual evidence and now i can pass the time before winter actually arrives. 

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Ian was anything but a mild lover, he gave a forecast one winter when there was a very cold snowy spell and he appeared so exited about it. I did meet him once but I am afraid he had had too much too drink and I could not get much sense out of him.

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11 minutes ago, AFC Snow said:

I am too young to remember him but this guy seems like a mild ramper😆

I remember this spell well. Went in my snooker club on a Friday nite with just light flurries. Came out to epic snowfalling and huge amounts on the ground. The air was very very cold with huge piles of powder snow 👌👌

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4 minutes ago, Rollo said:

Ian was anything but a mild lover, he gave a forecast one winter when there was a very cold snowy spell and he appeared so exited about it. I did meet him once but I am afraid he had had too much too drink and I could not get much sense out of him.

I went to a book signing with him and Paul Hudson in Sheffield. He signed my book with Paul but he did look very ill due to his poor health drinking ete. Great forecaster tho he was bless him 

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I have got my analogs for the beginning of cold season for sure, they are 2010 and 1998. Those were the last two years with significant flooding in Slovakia, not only that but both were developing years of Nina in summer with moderate to strong tendency by winter. Also were in deep solar minimum conditions same as 2020. Temperature trends are quite remarkably similar this year to 1998 in my location, with two significantly warm periods in February and August, rest of the time its quite changeable. What blew me out of the chair was comparison of height anomalies so far this October with last three years when significant flooding occurred here = 1974,1998 and 2010. Not only that but also MJO progression looks to be heading same way -  October had phases 5,6 decaying somewhere in 7 or 8, this year is heading exactly where 1998 and 2010.

Looks like we will have a troughy Nov-Dec period in Europe with blocking to the north with onset of  potentially interesting period between 20-11 and 21-12.

There is zonal trend between 22-12 and 25-01 with another potentially interesting period of blocking in February. I don't think February will be as mild as some might think, specially in central Europe, not sure weather the cold might reach UK, but first part of winter cold may be favored in western rather then central Europe.

We have uncanny similarity with 1998 even more then 2010 as far as my research goes. All relevant pictures attached.

gebFcAQR.jpg

Hurbanovo porovnanie.jpg

MJO comparison.jpg

solar activity.png

sunspots.PNG

xwHlnh1m77.png

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11 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

 

That forecast brought over a foot/30cm of snow to my area. Waking up and opening the curtains to this was epic. Aside from the Great Yorkshire Dump in late Jan 1995, it's not happened since.

img013.jpg

img014.jpg

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20 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

And there you are, that week was certainly great for us coldies 🥶❄️🌨💨☃️

A repeat this winter would be very welcome 🙏

1DA89BBD-962A-4CD9-BEA0-024B083E4CEB.thumb.png.2fdde87e80bc74d8e838b32f5fa79d04.pngC063F48B-626B-46A1-B92A-15C723899EA7.thumb.png.789847de15b5a3193f694aaadecb4d82.png68D3E19D-F05E-4FDB-B872-D3A2AA631730.thumb.png.b2405d2dd52ed77e4067d1ea0f7c8fbd.png 

 

Wondering what's happened to Feb, cool days these, nowadays dominated by W'lys, this one perhaps coldest I've seen

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1956/archives-1956-2-1-12-1.pngimage.thumb.png.0e03f2b78a5ddbe854076e964c789a72.png

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On 13/10/2020 at 16:48, Northernlights said:

 Real feeling of late autumn early winter today wth a keen north easterly wind driving showers in off the firth. Currently dull and 8c

In the arctic thread i see there has been a big increase in ice growth.I am one of the believers that feels the sun has an influence on our weather so with low solar minimum just in the past the lag factor may give us a fairly chilly winter in the next year or two.

Yes, some periods of growth NL, but unfortunately (depending on your view; more below) the big picture is that Arctic ice extent and expected growth at this time of the year are both very poor at the moment:

15th October: 597734119_ArcticSeaIceExtentGraph15Oct.thumb.png.ca6e584fa5a4f3fe2026882ce28e1a57.png742521132_ArcticSeaIceExtent15Oct.thumb.png.45ec5c3f0204b9f313570913209556c3.png

Source: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

And on Oct 10th Born from the Void posted: "The 3rd smallest October increase so far. The 2 years with less, are 2018 and 2019!"

As we move into November what's happening up in the Arctic will become an important pointer to how early winter could develop. For instance, the warmer the Arctic area , the smaller the temperature gradient between Pole and mid latitudes which will impact Jet Stream behaviour (bigger/smaller gradient related to strong/weak Jet Stream).

Also, sea ice cover, particularly in the Kara Sea to the north of Europe, is known to impact the NAO through large scale circulation anomalies. Met Office research shows "low/high sea ice concentrations in the Kara Sea in November precede negative/positive NAO anomalies, with anomalous pressure gradients over northernmost Europe and the East Atlantic.” (Source: Skillful long‐range prediction of European and North American winters)

So ironically, whilst it's bad news for the Arctic, the current situation up there - if continued into November - would be favourable for a negative NAO and weak and meandering Jet Stream as we enter winter.

GFS current month + forecast mean 2m air temperature anomalies: 218811353_GEFSTempANOM2m_fcstMTH_arctic17Oct.thumb.png.0b1274b654782df5c8e9af2d010fc7e9.png

Source: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

Danish Met Inst current SST anomalies 16th Oct: 1246792504_ArcticSSTanomalies16Oct2020.thumb.png.2aa5156fe86658ed5b3f252af8540711.png

Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

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53 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I have got my analogs for the beginning of cold season for sure, they are 2010 and 1998. Those were the last two years with significant flooding in Slovakia, not only that but both were developing years of Nina in summer with moderate to strong tendency by winter. Also were in deep solar minimum conditions same as 2020. Temperature trends are quite remarkably similar this year to 1998 in my location, with two significantly warm periods in February and August, rest of the time its quite changeable. What blew me out of the chair was comparison of height anomalies so far this October with last three years when significant flooding occurred here = 1974,1998 and 2010. Not only that but also MJO progression looks to be heading same way -  October had phases 5,6 decaying somewhere in 7 or 8, this year is heading exactly where 1998 and 2010.

Looks like we will have a troughy Nov-Dec period in Europe with blocking to the north with onset of  potentially interesting period between 20-11 and 21-12.

There is zonal trend between 22-12 and 25-01 with another potentially interesting period of blocking in February. I don't think February will be as mild as some might think, specially in central Europe, not sure weather the cold might reach UK, but first part of winter cold may be favored in western rather then central Europe.

We have uncanny similarity with 1998 even more then 2010 as far as my research goes. All relevant pictures attached.

gebFcAQR.jpg

Hurbanovo porovnanie.jpg

MJO comparison.jpg

solar activity.png

sunspots.PNG

xwHlnh1m77.png

Not many in the U.K. will be hoping for a rerun of 1998/99. Mild and no snow throughout for the vast majority. 

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46 minutes ago, Stelmer said:

That forecast brought over a foot/30cm of snow to my area. Waking up and opening the curtains to this was epic. Aside from the Great Yorkshire Dump in late Jan 1995, it's not happened since.

img013.jpg

img014.jpg

It's a shame i cannot remember the 95 event (too young, i have vague memories of the august and jan 97 as my earliest).

In the 2010-2013 period i was in BD11 and LS27 and we did get 29cm on Jan 6th 2010, 23cm on Dec 2nd 2010 and probably above 20cm in late Jan 13 (i had measured 16cm but was away for the final snowfall and it was melting when i came back). So we got close (with the aid of height).

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9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Not many in the U.K. will be hoping for a rerun of 1998/99. Mild and no snow throughout for the vast majority. 

Did you not get any snow with these synoptics?

archives-1998-12-5-0-0.png

archives-1999-2-8-0-0.png

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Worth adding that winters 99 and 11 are also reasonable QBO matches so a good shout should a moderate Nina persist into the Jan-March period in theory however the northern hemisphere composites are basically polar opposites thus showing the futility. 

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33 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Not many in the U.K. will be hoping for a rerun of 1998/99. Mild and no snow throughout for the vast majority. 

start of the warmer winters I always think that winter, the 'christmas pudding' began

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Delving through some old charts I have come aCross the DWR from October  1962, we all now what the ensuing winter was like, however I just thought that I might describe the Synoptics from today until the end of the month.

As of 1200 hours there was a large high of 1028 mb centred over southern England with temperatures at 1800 hrs with temperatures at 14 c in both London and Newcastle.

The high was fairly stationary over the next 24hours with the same central pressure also with similar temperatures.

By the 19th the high had retreated to the west allowing a weak front to come south over Scotland and some east coast districts of England, 1800 hour temperatures were 10 in Newcastle and 14 in London.

20thOctober the high was now covering most of the UK with similar temperatures to the previous day.

21st the centre of the high was now off the east coast of England with a central pressure of 1032 mb, temperatures falling a degree or so.

22nd. The high retreated south east leaving a ridge over eastern districts of 1028 mb, temperatures remained in the range 11-13c.

23rd.. The ridge from Central Europe persisted but a trough from a weak system off the Norwegian coast approached NW Scotland. 1800 hour temperatures 10 Newcastle 12 London.

24th. Relatively high pressure of 1024 mb persisted over France and eastwards and a cold front which had made inroads into Scotland was returning NE wards as  deep low  976mb approached Iceland. 1800 temps London11cnewcastle 8c.

.

 

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3 hours ago, Rollo said:

Ian was anything but a mild lover, he gave a forecast one winter when there was a very cold snowy spell and he appeared so exited about it. I did meet him once but I am afraid he had had too much too drink and I could not get much sense out of him.

He wasn’t like that on Christmas Day 1987, when he said ‘we’ve been lucky with the weather’ by reporting on Falmouth getting 14c and very sunny all day. 

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Continued. Oct 25. The ridge over Europe collapsed as fronts from a low now just off North Scotland moved SE wards, 11c Newcastle 13 c London

Oct 26th The fronts cleared SEand colder weather followed John o Groats recorded a snow shower, 1 c Aberdeen, 7 c Newcastle.
Oct 27th.The following ridge collapsed quickly as low 976mb approached SE Iceland. 0600 temps 3c Newcastle 0 outside London.

0ct28th by 0600 the low now 980mb was off NE Scotland with a cold wow airstream across the country, 6pm temps Newcastle 7c as was London.

0ct 29th Mobile flow with following ridge across the country, chilly temperatures.

Oct 30th. Low 968 South of Iceland with fronts moving quickly SE across the country at 0600 mostly dry temps between 8 to 12c.

Oct 31st. Low ,now 984 is off the Norwegian coast with cold North West airstream over the country.

The monthly summary for the entire month of October 1962, was that it was a dry, sunny and rather warm month., I would have  thought mainly due to a warm start.

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The current October weather pattern reminds me of October 2017, 2009 and 2010. Some milder days, but nothing exceptional, and always a lingering chill in the air. 
 

I know October 2017 was very mild in the middle part with the Sahara ash cloud( was it that year), when the sky turned really dark in the afternoon. But, it does seem to feel more likely, a colder winter will follow a dull and overall cool October.

1993 was also like this. I think if anything, we will have an average winter this year with one notable cold snowy spell. Even if it’s only a feb 1994 or feb 2018 spell.

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