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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The best anomaly profile for Winter is the ECM Ensemble mean for November ( The signal for December is almost the same just a tad weaker )

F8349375-813B-4A8D-9C35-A0196CC4B2B1.thumb.jpeg.60be49b9b25a3edbb27257b3a03355a5.jpeg

 

Still you need a trough to the E/SE though - above heights over continental Europe on that chart.

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still you need a trough to the E/SE though - above heights over continental Europe on that chart.

Yes, that is what is worrying me about the GloSea5 output as well.  But it is over 3 months, it could always be a monster high in January!  

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Well I’ve been on the train that says very cold December with major winter outbreak for last 3rd Dec.  Re Jan I personally think it will be a ‘westerly Atlantic’ mild one with a getting colder Feb.

Nice to see other early updates Liking the front loader part.

I think the Siberian snowcover will be expanding like crazy over next 2-3 weeks.

 

Last chance for my major winter hit in next 3 years....so here we go.  The depth of this solar minina provides me with great hope ....and the incredibly meridional jetstream is a joy to look at.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still you need a trough to the E/SE though - above heights over continental Europe on that chart.

Wasn't this a similar issue during winter 2018/19 with northern blocking but also strong euro eights keeping us mild?

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Wasn't this a similar issue during winter 2018/19 with northern blocking but also strong euro eights keeping us mild?

think so yes.

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So here’s a thought for those worrying about a three month smoothed average showing heights over Europe as well as to out north.

one month could have a Genoa low doing its stuff , two months pressure could be higher.  Overall would still show up as above average over the three

months..  The actual Met Glosea chart for the individual month of Dec shows lower than average heights in Southern Europe.

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17 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

There is a positive in the sense that it is quite a marked improvement on September's update for early winter. There is also wiggle room for a further improvement on the next update in November. 

Yep. Direction of travel important. 

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My nearest weather station (a few miles away, similar elevation) is showing wintry precipitation for a time tomorrow morning (the blue is rain, the grey is snow). There'll probably end up being nothing but to see grey in the precipitation forecast at all for 13th October is pretty noteworthy!

0_meteo_num_mgram.thumb.png.b925e732e5259895bf102f707cd40137.png

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update on my winter hopes we'll probably be litterally locked in with snow and can't visit our families knowing this year

Edited by hamilton and weather fan 1
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27 minutes ago, hamilton and weather fan 1 said:

update on my winter hopes we'll probably be litterally locked in with snow and can't visit our families knowing this year

However you can play in the snow in your back garden providing 

You don't through a snowball more than 2m

Any snowmen built are socially distanced.

🤔

C.S

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30 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

However you can play in the snow in your back garden providing 

You don't through a snowball more than 2m

Any snowmen built are socially distanced.

🤔

C.S

Unless it's in a whetherspoons beer garden? 

🤔 😂

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1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

However you can play in the snow in your back garden providing 

You don't through a snowball more than 2m

Any snowmen built are socially distanced.

🤔

C.S

Also make sure you don't build more than 6 of them or you'll be breaking the rule of 6

Another advantage of a snowed in winter is we won't go anywhere so won't spread the virus

Edited by SqueakheartLW
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Here is my very (very very) Unscientific 2 point thesis on why this winter is going to be cold and snowy.

1) Spring felt spring like, summer felt summery, autumn has been very autumnal, so... winter is going to winter.

2) If ever we were due a 'Winter of Discontent' it's 2020.

I'm sure there will be no disputing my findings on this. 😅

 

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1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

Here is my very (very very) Unscientific 2 point thesis on why this winter is going to be cold and snowy.

1) Spring felt spring like, summer felt summery, autumn has been very autumnal, so... winter is going to winter.

2) If ever we were due a 'Winter of Discontent' it's 2020.

I'm sure there will be no disputing my findings on this. 😅

 

I can't find any flaws in your research 😂

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Can you imagine if winter 2020/21 ended up having long periods of daily highs not being any higher than 5c?

Combine this with remote working, or more people still at home on job retention, it’s going to be devastating financially. More people will have to use the heating for longer periods of time.

I would love a cold winter,  but a severe one would be awful.

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44 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Can you imagine if winter 2020/21 ended up having long periods of daily highs not being any higher than 5c?

Combine this with remote working, or more people still at home on job retention, it’s going to be devastating financially. More people will have to use the heating for longer periods of time.

I would love a cold winter,  but a severe one would be awful.

I’d say most people ‘working from home’ can afford to put the heating on.  If you work from home you can also claim tax relief against utility bills. Anyway the weather will do what the weather will do regardless of COVID or anything else... Bring on the blizzards I say ❄️🥶

Edited by Tim Bland
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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d say most people ‘working from home’ can afford to put the heating on.  If you work from home you can also claim tax relief against utility bills. Anyway the weather will do what the weather will do regardless of COVID or anything else... Bring on the blizzards I say ❄️🥶

Well, working from home is saving me money on petrol, parking costs and my sanity.  

Really interested in how this winter will pan out! Are the long range models saying something different this year? 

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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d say most people ‘working from home’ can afford to put the heating on.  If you work from home you can also claim tax relief against utility bills. Anyway the weather will do what the weather will do regardless of COVID or anything else... Bring on the blizzards I say ❄️🥶

Not necessarily. Not everyone who works remotely is making big bucks. 

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41 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

Well, working from home is saving me money on petrol, parking costs and my sanity.  

Really interested in how this winter will pan out! Are the long range models saying something different this year? 

I’m not saying it’s a bad thing. Given half the choice I would work from home, but unfortunately my job doesn’t allow it. 
 

It looks like another lockdown is coming, and wouldn’t surprise me if we have another one in January. 

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