Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion

[Hotspur62 1,117]

Love this time of year.Anticipation of blocking,solar minimum,IOD,el Nino or La Niña,spread of Siberian snow cover ,-NAO & AO.So many considerations in the search for cold and snow for the UK.at present certain models are slowly moving towards a blocked pattern for November and December that will slowly wane in January and February and bring milder temperatures compared to average but nothing is set in stone.The one thing that does concern me is that in recent years the PV does always ramp up in late November/early December just when you don’t want it too and the building excitement turns into rapid disappointment and with it the chances of a prolonged cold spell that many on here long for(and yes I am partial to a cold spell or two in a UK winter).Whatever happens we will always be here because the GFS and ECM will show charts that will have us Salivating showing snowmeggeddon(normally at 10 days away lol) but that is part of the fun.Maybe this year one of those charts will actually come to fruition and if it does then everyone will move over to the Regional threads and send pictures of who has the most(or least) snow😂!!
 

Strap yourselves in guys and girls-Winter is coming and we will soon see if we do receive a good dump or two or the pastures of the UK just remain “green”!Either way I always enjoy the contributions so many make on here that have helped and educated me since 2013👍

 

[Snow lover 2020 74]

36 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well folks, however we view the evidence relating to Deep Solar Minima, just remember that Earth's climate in 2020 is very different to what it was in 1836?🤔

But, be that as it may, most of us I'm sure (myself certainly, as a SAD sufferer!) would love to see a winter with lots of lying snow?

A great lamppost-watching season beckons... Hopefully!

Who knows? We are entering the unknown with today’s climate and the impacts of GSM. Like I said.. time will tell of how it effects our weather and climate in the winters to come however I appreciate and respect everyone’s opinions on this 🙂  Bring on more snowy winters! 

[Earthshine 426]

@SqueakheartLW That was a very entertaining read, thank you for that!

[sebastiaan1973 984]

Last year and this year october forecast.

[northwestsnow 21,365]

^^

Thanks ..

Big differences!!

[Beanz 315]

6 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Last year and this year october forecast.

Struggling to understand these charts, I think I get the temps - other is pressure? 

[Griff 1,115]

4 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Struggling to understand these charts, I think I get the temps - other is pressure? 

Top is pressure, my suggestion is locate the UK and look at the Atlantic and pressure to the north... 

Obviously a lot more going on and apologies for the possibly misleading quick circling... 

Edited October 10 by Griff

[Beanz 315]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Top is pressure, my suggestion is locate the UK and look at the Atlantic and pressure to the north... 

Obviously a lot more going on and apologies for the possibly misleading quick circling... 

Thanks.  So the red is higher pressure or...? 

[Griff 1,115]

Just now, Beanz said:

Thanks.  So the red is higher pressure or...? 

Yes, in this case with predicted blocking to the north and west, worth a search for negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) and how that impacts the Jet and our weather. 

[Beanz 315]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes, in this case with predicted blocking to the north and west, worth a search for negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) and how that impacts the Jet and our weather. 

Coo! I understand the -NAO (well the basics at least) I just hadn’t seen these charts before and was struggling to translate them.  

Seems to support the idea of a colder Oct anyway  
 

 

[iceman1991 101]

So what everyone getting at could be in for cold start to winter. Where’s roger j smith been a bit ignorant ignoring about up coming winter ????? 

[Don 3,225]

33 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

So what everyone getting at could be in for cold start to winter. Where’s roger j smith been a bit ignorant ignoring about up coming winter ????? 

I'm very eager to hear Roger's thoughts about the coming winter, too!

[Steve Murr 74,320]

GLOSEA / Met office Dec anomalies.

[iceman1991 101]

52 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GLOSEA / Met office Dec anomalies.

Is that the recent update ?

[Steve Murr 74,320]

Says it up top 02/10.

 

Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ

Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter.

Gone is the negative low pressure anomaly to the North no be replaced by polar blocking & Ural blocking.

Slightly weaker signal for Greenland than 2009 suggestive of more continental flows rather than Northerly flows.

A very very positive update.

[iceman1991 101]

Just watched  gavsweathervids  latest winter update very interesting especially towards the end basically he was saying that we’ve having a lot of northern blocking at the moment through October and he had a few previous years  with the blocking through October’s and the winters that followed and there’s an increased chance basically of having a colder  winter 

[Catacol 14,344]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Says it up top 02/10.

 

Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ

Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter.

Gone is the negative low pressure anomaly to the North no be replaced by polar blocking & Ural blocking.

Slightly weaker signal for Greenland than 2009 suggestive of more continental flows rather than Northerly flows.

A very very positive update.

Yes it is Steve. Clear signal for higher heights to the north than predicted last month with lower pressure over western Russia perhaps helping advert cold westwards still. Smoothed 3 month averages are annoying - but a very positive shift as far as these maps go.

[General Cluster 56,912]

59 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Just watched  gavsweathervids  latest winter update very interesting especially towards the end basically he was saying that we’ve having a lot of northern blocking at the moment through October and he had a few previous years  with the blocking through October’s and the winters that followed and there’s an increased chance basically of having a colder  winter 

Let's hope so @iceman1991... One more mild, damp, dreich winter, and I'll opt for voluntary self-defenestration!

[XanderP007 1,108]

The signs are good it's already getting cold there's rain and hopefully it will carry on when we get into the minuses for the first time ever i am feeling positive plus these charts are so varied anything could happen just steer clear form the bbc

Edited October 11 by hamilton and weather fan 1

[sebastiaan1973 984]

The winter shows a positive NAO. For the periode J-F-M even more positive.

Very strong La Nina (N-D-J). Is this realistic?

Negative AO.

Edited October 11 by sebastiaan1973

[Premier Neige 169]

5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

The winter shows a positive NAO. For the periode J-F-M even more positive.

Very strong La Nina (N-D-J). Is this realistic?

Which model is this from?

[sebastiaan1973 984]

Oh sorry Glosea5 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

[Premier Neige 169]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oh sorry Glosea5 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Strange that it seems to be at odds with the glosea chart that Steve Murr posted. I think the majority of models are going for weak to moderate la nina as well. I guess time will tell...

[Steve Murr 74,320]

The best anomaly profile for Winter is the ECM Ensemble mean for November ( The signal for December is almost the same just a tad weaker )

 

[Weather-history 16,746]

On 09/10/2020 at 20:50, General Cluster said:

Well folks, however we view the evidence relating to Deep Solar Minima, just remember that Earth's climate in 2020 is very different to what it was in 1836?🤔

 

As I mentioned before with the deep solar minimum of 1911-14  the winters were not a frosty snowfest. Infact most of the severe winters of the 20th century occurred closer to a solar maximum such as 1916-17, 1928-29, 1946-47 and 1978-79