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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
    APPS.ECMWF.INT

     

    This is the chart for the 23th of novemebr

    23 november.PNG

    Yes - end of November at the moment looks to be heading for a Greeny ridge, Scandy trough. A good start to the season if it comes off. In line with early strat forecasts and La Nina forcing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

     

    The European winters of 2017–18 and 2018–19 were not climatically extreme, but both winters had a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). In February 2018, an SSW led to an intense cold outbreak across Europe and further spells of cold weather in March. The SSW of January 2019, although well predicted and expected to increase the chance of a cold end to winter, apparently produced little impact. In this study, we examine the performance of the Met Office seasonal prediction system in these winters, and the influences that led to these outcomes. To achieve this latter objective, sets of numerical experiments are performed in which the tropical troposphere and the extratropical stratosphere are relaxed towards their observed state, allowing the influence of each on the North Atlantic‐European atmospheric circulation to be identified. Using these experiments, we show that the SSWs had similar impacts in each case, creating a signal of easterly surface wind anomalies in the weeks following the event. In contrast, tropical influences were opposite in the two winters, acting to strengthen the easterly signal at the end of February 2018 and opposing it in January 2019. The different apparent responses to the two events therefore came about largely through tropical tropospheric variability. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of a very strong cycle of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in late January and early February 2018 as an important driver for the February 2018 SSW. MJO teleconnections appear to have been critical in creating the large mid‐latitude wave 2 amplitude that has been identified as the immediate cause of this event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    35 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
     
    RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

     

    The European winters of 2017–18 and 2018–19 were not climatically extreme, but both winters had a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). In February 2018, an SSW led to an intense cold outbreak across Europe and further spells of cold weather in March. The SSW of January 2019, although well predicted and expected to increase the chance of a cold end to winter, apparently produced little impact. In this study, we examine the performance of the Met Office seasonal prediction system in these winters, and the influences that led to these outcomes. To achieve this latter objective, sets of numerical experiments are performed in which the tropical troposphere and the extratropical stratosphere are relaxed towards their observed state, allowing the influence of each on the North Atlantic‐European atmospheric circulation to be identified. Using these experiments, we show that the SSWs had similar impacts in each case, creating a signal of easterly surface wind anomalies in the weeks following the event. In contrast, tropical influences were opposite in the two winters, acting to strengthen the easterly signal at the end of February 2018 and opposing it in January 2019. The different apparent responses to the two events therefore came about largely through tropical tropospheric variability. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of a very strong cycle of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in late January and early February 2018 as an important driver for the February 2018 SSW. MJO teleconnections appear to have been critical in creating the large mid‐latitude wave 2 amplitude that has been identified as the immediate cause of this event.

    Yes - I would be very surprised if we dont end up watching and hoping for an SSW with positive cold feedbacks come the second half of winter. 

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  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Time for a little bit of fun. What if one of the below scenarios played out for winter 2020/21. The first scenario is within this post. I have put the second one in a following post

    Using actual CET Data from the following links:
    For Daily Minimum CET's from 1878 to now
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetmindly1878on_urbadj4.dat
    For Daily Maximum CET's from 1878 to now
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetmaxdly1878on_urbadj4.dat

    Then you go through all of the data and pick out the highest and lowest date maximums and do the same for the minimums

    Eventually you should end up with 4 sets of CET figures
    Highest Date CET Maximums
    Highest Date CET Minimums
    Lowest Date CET Maximums
    Lowest Date CET Minimums

    Takes a while if you look through it using notepad but if you use a spreadsheet program it speeds things up quite a bit
    Remember to divide the numbers by 10 to get the actual CET

    Once you have all the data it is time to generate the charts associated with it

    This is the link to the chart generator I used:
    https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl

    My example is the last data I entered for the final set of charts
    You can only enter dates between Jan 1st 1836 and Dec 31st 2015

    Since the CET data only runs from 1878 to now then the only data missing is 2016 onwards for the charts

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.0ddb9c6416cb6d2ebc8801a4ab142d31.jpg

    If a date value appears twice for the same day, enter that year, month and date twice

    For N Hemisphere charts use 500mn geopotential height, select anomaly, 200% plot size and select N Hemisphere
    For the UK temp chart use 2m temp, anomaly, 200% plot size

    For the temperature anomalies put 1 in override default contour interval and put -12 as a min and 12 as a max. Use defaults for precipitation anomalies

    select custom map projection and enter lowest lat 50, highest lat 60, west longitude -13 and east longitude 4
    For precipitation just change 2m temp to precipitation rate

    SCENARIO 1 - EXTREME COLD

    Now here is some real fun if you are a big cold fan in winter. Feast your eyes upon these November to March charts I have generated for my fantasy winter 2020/21. In all likelihood this will NEVER happen but since it is based on actual data it isn't totally impossible

    Imaginary Cold November 1st to 8th 2020

    November 2020 Max   November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max   November 2020 Min
    1    1881    3.3              1926    -3.8                         2    1880    5.0              1880    -4.0
    3    1922    5.1              1985    -2.2                         4    1919    3.4              1901    -2.4
    5    1901    3.0              1930    -3.6                         6    1901    5.8              1901    -3.6
    7    1888    3.6              1896    -2.6                         8    1921    3.4              1923    -4.1
    Av Max    4.1           Av Min   -3.3          Top Max  5.8           Low Min -4.1

    11_01_08_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.b634734db5fe8f92289952ac45c4802f.gif11_01_08_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.67bad6784bffd87b7ae3ed6c9f3426d9.gif11_01_08_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.22d25dc10bef7c991fb98b983d50db96.gif

    Imaginary Cold November 9th to 16th 2020

    November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min
    9    1921    4.5               1921    -5.4                         10    1919    3.8             1908    -4.7
    11    1919    3.1             1921    -3.0                         12    1919    2.4             1919    -5.1
    13    1919    1.4             1979    -4.4                         14    1919    1.7             1925    -4.1
    15    1965    0.5             1965    -4.7                         16    1901    0.6             1901    -6.4
    Av Max    2.30        Av Min    -4.70          Top Max    4.50        Low Min -6.40

    11_09_16_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.87496f93978481cda0fbce5455dff795.gif11_09_16_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.f6ca5f36307e01672f64b528754238af.gif11_09_16_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.5219a5f6f8c8cfc68592b913bcd8e758.gif

    Imaginary Cold November 17th to 23rd 2020

    November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min
    17    1930    2.7             1930    -6.1                         18    1887    0.7             1929    -4.6
    19    1902    2.0             2005    -2.6                         20    1962    2.5             1971    -3.7
    21    1880    1.1             1880    -3.9                         22    1920    2.1             1988    -5.0
    23    1993    -0.5            1983    -6.6
    Av Max    1.50        Av Min    -4.60          Top Max    2.70        Low Min -6.60

    11_17_23_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.8ef3dee82cab6e04f4886dc8470192e6.gif11_17_23_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.d4f672ae63b6d6fcda2ff009a68a5d45.gif11_17_23_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.8770134f59c08a2facd2faa13708d944.gif

    Imaginary Cold November 24th to 30th 2020

    November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min
    24    1904    -0.3           1904    -8.8                          25    2010    2.3             1952    -5.6
    26    1904    1.2             1989    -5.1                         27    1890    -0.3            1915    -6.3
    28    2010    -1.0           2010    -7.0                          29    1890    0.0             2010    -6.3
    30    1973    0.4            1919    -5.8
    Av Max    0.30        Av Min    -6.40          Top Max    2.30        Low Min -8.80

    11_24_30_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.8a3ee33ce9325c20234d319b8757ca1b.gif11_24_30_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.2260e7a3d6937f251ab7be5a911c92f3.gif11_24_30_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.535ec450bc9267f04f739b7521dce145.gif

    Overall Imaginary Cold November 2020 stats

    Av Max         2.12        Av Min     -4.72
    MeanCET    -1.30        Anomaly  -8.44
    Top Max       5.80        Low Min  -8.80

    That is one very cold November month with a mean CET anomaly of -8.44C below the 81-10 average and a sub zero CET month as well at -1.30C. How will imaginary cold December 2020 shape up in comparison to November?

    Imaginary Cold December 1st to 8th 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    1    2010    -0.4             1947    -6.4                         2    1879    -1.2            1879    -7.1
    3    1879    -0.4             2010    -7.5                         4    1925    -1.5            2010    -6.7
    5    1902    -0.6             1879    -7.8                         6    2010    -1.8            1879    -8.1
    7    2010    -0.4             1879    -11.4                       8    1967    -0.7            1879    -7.5
    Av Max    -0.90        Av Min    -7.80          Top Max    -0.40        Low Min    -11.40

    12_01_08_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.cf5e42656e5b45cf7184170622068910.gif12_01_08_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.7a99b533e988f44f56a1ffe848358fd7.gif12_01_08_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.f295f2f90b450c29da3dcca8ca1f641b.gif

    Imaginary Cold December 9th to 16th 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    9    1981    0.8              1967    -5.6                         10    1981    -1.2           1981    -6.8
    11    1882    -0.8           1879    -6.7                         12    1981    -3.8           1981    -13.2
    13    1920    -1.9           1981    -15.9                       14    1878    -2.2           1890    -8.4
    15    1890    -0.3           1878    -8.4                         16    1890    -0.3           1899    -5.5
    Av Max    -1.20        Av Min    -8.80          Top Max    0.80        Low Min    -15.90

    12_09_16_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.f8f29d82f18f8cb77e9e88a79a8bd940.gif12_09_16_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.785d692cd29100c88525df99fa7b8275.gif12_09_16_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.d9d9943c9631fd5da000ab3532f06363.gif

    Imaginary Cold December 17th to 24th 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    17    1981    -0.5           1878    -7.3                         18    1927    -1.3           1981    -7.2
    19    2010    -3.2           2010    -10.3                       20    1938    -2.2           2010    -12.4
    21    1891    -1.5           2010    -10.6                       22    1891    -1.5           1890    -12.6
    23    1891    -2.7           1935    -8.4                         24    1891    -1.8           1878    -9.8
    Av Max    -1.80        Av Min    -9.80          Top Max    -0.50        Low Min    -12.60

    12_17_24_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.4b2bd00dcc78df8b3b631d3244802c92.gif12_17_24_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.a44696836e5a866fc9261bd9007d625f.gif12_17_24_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.0c4e3ae7a5cee96f1ebc8deb65d4cb19.gif

    Imaginary Cold December 25th to 31st 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    25    2010    -2.6           1878    -11.2                       26    1906    -0.8           2010    -9.7
    27    1899    -0.9           1892    -9.1                         28    1995    -3.0         1892    -8.1
    29    1908    -4.0           1964    -9.2                         30    1890    -1.7         1908    -10.7
    31    1978    -2.4           1892    -6.4
    Av Max    -2.20        Av Min    -9.20          Top Max    -0.80        Low Min    -11.20

    12_25_31_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.2f495f37516e2b1d1d2d8d16b4914de9.gif12_25_31_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.9fa93d3ed315ba4c6c62a5e43828a118.gif12_25_31_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.7e6f4164026b9384ea5de8a8964a0dbe.gif

    Overall Imaginary Cold December 2020 stats

    Av Max     -1.51        Av Min    -8.9
    MeanCET  -5.21        Anomaly -9.84
    Top Max    0.8           Low Min -15.9

    If you thought Imaginary Cold November 2020 was cold then Imaginary Cold December 2020 has made it look mild in comparison. Imaginary Cold December 2020 has come out a whopping -9.84C colder than the 81-10 average and has a Mean CET of an icy -5.21C. Since January is on average the coldest winter month then will Imaginary Cold January 2021 live up to this?

    Imaginary Cold January 1st to 8th 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    1    1962    -1.1         1962    -8.6                    2    1893    -1.8         1962    -8.7
    3    1941    -0.9         1962    -7.8                    4    1894    -2.1         1893    -7.2
    5    1894    -4.2         1893    -8.6                    6    1894    -3.0         1894    -10.7
    7    1894    -2.6         1894    -9.7                    8    1982    -2.1         2010    -7.7
    Av Max    -2.20        Av Min    -8.6          Top Max    -0.90        Low Min    -10.70

    01_01_08_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.0fa80f9a6beb7c3621301d8291b2e1ee.gif01_01_08_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.3ad5a0cd7121f91f082b29e8261de1d5.gif01_01_08_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.bb3c6d800c1f9cc4114bc8de23b2efd3.gif

    Imaginary Cold January 9th to 16th 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    9    1982    -2.5         1918    -6.5                    10    1982    -2.3      1982    -8.0
    11    1987    -3.3       1879    -8.2                    12    1987    -5.7      1963    -10.1
    13    1987    -3.5       1987    -9.6                    14    1881    -4.4      1982    -12.9
    15    1881    -2.7       1982    -12.7                  16    1985    -3.0      1881    -12.7
    Av Max    -3.40        Av Min    -10.10          Top Max    -2.30        Low Min    -12.90

    01_09_16_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.0ef934492144455d78fa78275897b8ac.gif01_09_16_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.87f613766bb395b15cfa51ce617f99d8.gif01_09_16_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.ec22001c9df6c558f22a85aca60b6cf9.gif

    Imaginary Cold January 17th to 24th 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    17    1940    -2.1       1881    -11.0                  18    1881    -1.3       1891    -11.0
    19    1881    -2.9       1891    -11.1                  20    1940    -3.8       1881    -11.5
    21    1881    -3.2       1940    -13.4                  22    1963    -1.8       1881    -12.3
    23    1963    -3.6       1963    -13.2                  24    1963    -3.6       1963    -12.7
    Av Max    -2.80        Av Min    -12.00          Top Max    -1.30        Low Min    -13.40

    01_17_24_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.28fabf6f76a475df97335428baf336ba.gif01_17_24_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.41262b45b927f0d0e90943997e3c93ea.gif01_17_24_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.632ee460d7782e340af91fb8da0e68f5.gif

    Imaginary Cold January 25th to 31st 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    25    1881    -4.0       1963    -10.7                  26    1945    -4.5       1945    -10.6
    27    1954    -0.8       1945    -10.3                  28    1954    -1.1       1979    -11.1
    29    1947    -3.8       1947    -8.9                    30    1947    -1.4       1947    -8.7
    31    1954    -1.9       1972    -9.2
    Av Max    -2.50        Av Min    -9.9          Top Max    -0.80        Low Min    -10.70

    01_25_31_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.a24d6cf4e322f80f2ea0c89fe3b0d769.gif01_25_31_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.8c606cbc1bc9b86e508be04e4d894a6c.gif01_25_31_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.d436bb97f60c4bdad6fb02728ec22a94.gif

    Overall Imaginary Cold January 2021 stats

    Av Max      -2.74        Av Min    -10.17
    MeanCET   -6.46        Anomaly -10.9
    Top Max    -0.8          Low Min  -13.40

    Imaginary Cold January 2021 has lived up to the coldest winter month as expected with some impressive cold anomalies throughout the month. The overall anomaly comes out at a big -10.9C below the 81-10 average with a sub zero CET of -6.46C. What will Imaginary Cold February 2021 bring?

    Imaginary Cold February 1st to 7th 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    1    1956    -3.8           1956    -9.7                      2    1956    -2.9          1956    -10.0
    3    1956    -0.3           1956    -10.4                    4    1912    -3.0          1956    -9.7
    5    1912    -0.6           1917    -9.2                      6    1895    -4.5          1917    -11.0
    7    1895    -2.7           1917    -11.7
    Av Max    -2.50        Av Min    -10.20          Top Max    -0.30        Low Min    -11.70

    02_01_07_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.771a07b687609cbbdcdbb61fd9079ed3.gif02_01_07_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.f3764f195def48508c8b2acda6f70f2a.gif02_01_07_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.b301bf101f5b588ae954130261dd8ad5.gif

    Imaginary Cold February 8th to 14th 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    8    1895    -3.0           1895    -13.5                    9    1895    -1.8          1895    -12.9
    10    1985    -2.7         1895    -11.3                    11    1985    -1.6        1986    -8.6
    12    1929    -2.9         1895    -10.1                    13    1929    -3.4        1895    -11.1
    14    1929    -1.6         1929    -12.5
    Av Max    -2.40        Av Min    -11.40          Top Max    -1.60        Low Min    -13.50

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    Imaginary Cold February 15th to 21st 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    15    1929    -3.9         1929    -12.1                    16    1947    -1.2         1985    -7.2
    17    1947    -2.3         1929    -9.2                      18    1947    -0.8         1929    -9.8
    19    1892    -0.6         1892    -8.7                      20    1947    -0.7         1955    -7.5
    21    1947    -2.1         1986    -8.2
    Av Max    -1.70        Av Min    -9.00          Top Max    -0.60        Low Min    -12.10

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    Imaginary Cold February 22nd to 28th 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    22    1947    -0.8         1986    -6.3                      23    1947    0.0          1947    -7.0
    24    1956    -0.6         1947    -13.6                    25    1986    0.0          1947    -12.1
    26    1929    -1.3         1947    -8.0                      27    1929    -1.5         1955    -6.0
    28    1886    1.0          1955    -7.8
    Av Max    -0.50        Av Min    -8.70          Top Max    1.00        Low Min    -13.60

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    Overall Imaginary Cold February 2021 stats

    Av Max     -1.77     Av Min     -9.83
    MeanCET  -5.8       Anomaly  -10.19
    Top Max    1.0        Low Min  -13.6

    Imaginary Cold February 2021 has proven to be another icy month with a Mean CET anomaly of -10.19, not as big as the January anomaly but still below -10C. The overall Mean CET is another icy -5.8C. Will Imaginary Cold March 2021 be a sub zero CET month too?

    Imaginary Cold March 1st to 8th 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    1    1904    1.4            1929    -7.1                  2    1892    0.0            1965    -6.7
    3    1892    -0.1           1965    -9.3                 4    1965    0.5            1909    -7.2
    5    1947    0.3            1909    -9.4                  6    1942    -0.7          1962    -6.2
    7    1931    0.9            1947    -9.3                  8    1917    0.6           1947    -6.6
    Av Max    0.40        Av Min    -7.70          Top Max    1.40        Low Min    -9.40

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    Imaginary Cold March 9th to 16th 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    9    1931    0.7            1917    -7.5                  10    1891    0.9          1883    -6.3
    11    1928    0.5          1958    -5.0                  12    1928    1.0          1891    -6.4
    13    1888    2.4          1887    -6.3                  14    1947    1.9          1887    -6.7
    15    1887    1.4          1962    -5.4                  16    1979    0.9          1909    -4.6
    Av Max    1.20        Av Min    -6.00          Top Max    2.40        Low Min    -7.50

    03_09_16_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.ac44056f942316add8690d319b8eb195.gif03_09_16_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.867b5e03ddab0f8917abcc4d0bc323c9.gif03_09_16_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.5e53ced01daa6e63757c9478e645bf4c.gif

    Imaginary Cold March 17th to 24th 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    17    1888    1.5          1887    -5.1                  18    1888    1.8          1900    -4.6
    19    1888    1.6          1887    -4.5                  20    1888    2.8          1930    -7.7
    21    1883    2.4          1899    -6.0                  22    1883    1.9          1899    -5.3
    23    2013    0.8          1899    -4.8                  24    1879    0.4          1883    -6.3
    Av Max    1.70        Av Min    -5.50          Top Max    2.80        Low Min    -7.70

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    Imaginary Cold March 25th to 31sr 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    25    1879    0.1          1883    -4.4                  26    1879    1.1          1901    -4.2
    27    2013    3.0          1881    -4.4                  28    1952    2.8          1901    -3.9
    29    1952    2.1          1901    -4.9                  30    1952    3.4          1915    -3.7
    31    1922    3.3          2013    -3.8
    Av Max    2.30        Av Min    -4.20          Top Max    3.40        Low Min    -4.90

    03_25_31_COLD_500MB.thumb.gif.543f5288f2ffebc768db356c7a1da38c.gif03_25_31_COLD_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.0f7d4774a3c3805a8558aff4a08d37ec.gif03_25_31_COLD_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.8f823af26259923ec1b7c7275135135c.gif

    Overall Imaginary Cold March 2021 stats

    Av Max     1.34       Av Min     -5.92
    MeanCET  -2.29     Anomaly  -8.87
    Top Max    3.4        Low Min   -9.4

    Imaginary Cold March 2021 has come out with another impressive -8.87C colder than the 81-10 average mean CET and has somehow also achieved another sub zero CET at a chilly -2.29C. This means another overall ice month with the highest max only 3.4C

    OVERALL IMAGINARY WINTER PERIOD NOVEMBER 2020 TO MARCH 2021

    Av Nov-Mar Max           -0.51C                    Av Nov-Mar Min            -7.91C

    Mean Nov-Mar CET       -4.21C                    Nov-Mar CET Anomaly  -9.65C

    Highest Max Daily CET   5.8C                       Lowest Min Daily CET    -15.9C

    An overall sub zero CET period with few days getting above 0C throughout the 5 months period. The "warmest" day is the 6th November at 5.8C. The coldest night is the 13th December at -15.9C.

    I will have the opposite extreme mild scenario posted as soon as I have typed it all up

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  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    SCENARIO 2 - EXTREME HEAT

    As promised I have my second scenario imaginary winter 2020/21. If you are a fan of mild winters then these are the charts for you but for anyone who likes frost and snow over constant mild temperatures and the high risk of flooding then this is your worst nightmare. In all likelihood this will NEVER happen but since it is based on actual data it isn't totally impossible

    For the links to CET data and the chart generator see the top of my Scenario 1 cold post further back

    Imaginary Mild November 1st to 8th 2020

    November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min
    1    1984    16.3             1894    12.0                         2    1927    17.7             1894    12.5
    3    2011    16.8             1996    13.5                         4    1946    18.7             1931    12.8
    5    1938    17.6             1938    13.2                         6    2015    16.2             2015    12.3
    7    2015    16.1             2015    11.4                         8    1998    15.5         1938    10.4
    Av Max    16.90        Av Min    12.30          Top Max    18.70        Low Min    10.40

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    Imaginary Mild November 9th to 16th 2020

    November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min
    9    1977    15.9             1994    10.7                         10    1977    16.2           1977    10.6
    11    1938    15.3           2015    12.7                         12    1938    16.3           1947    12.4
    13    1938    16.1           1938    13.1                         14    2015    14.8           1938    12.1
    15    2015    15.4           1948    11.3                         16    1895    15.7           1997    11.4
    Av Max    15.70        Av Min    11.80          Top Max    16.30        Low Min    10.60

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    Imaginary Mild November 17th to 23rd 2020

    November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min
    17    1997    14.8           1997    11.3                         18    1978    15.2           1997    10.4
    19    1994    15.6           1978    12.0                         20    1947    15.3           1994    12.0
    21    1947    15.7           1947    11.7                         22    1906    15.4           1947    13.5
    23    1947    14.3           1947    12.3
    Av Max    15.20        Av Min    11.90          Top Max    15.70        Low Min    10.40

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    Imaginary Mild November 24th to 30th 2020

    November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min          November 2020 Max    November 2020 Min
    24    1980    14.0           1980    11.4                         25    1983    13.8           1964    11.1
    26    1979    14.5           1983    11.3                         27    2006    13.6           1994    9.0
    28    2000    14.7           1917    10.2                         29    1939    14.0           2000    10.6
    30    2001    14.3           1939    10.8
    Av Max    14.10        Av Min    10.60          Top Max    14.70        Low Min    9.00

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    Overall Imaginary Mild November 2020 stats

    Av Max     15.53        Av Min      11.67
    MeanCET  13.60        Anomaly    6.46
    Top Max    18.70        Low Min    9.00

    A very mild start to the late autumn/early winter period. This Imaginary Warm November 2020 has a mean CET anomaly of an impressive +6.46C above the 81-10 mean with an easily double digit CET mean of 13.6C. This month is so mild that the lowest point of the CET is a very mild overnight minimum of 9C with some very warm days too with a peak of 18.7C

    Imaginary Mild December 1st to 8th 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    1    1985    13.8            1939    10.6                         2    1985    14.4            1985    9.9
    3    1953    13.7            1985    11.2                         4    1979    13.8            1934    10.6
    5    1898    13.9            1898    11.3                         6    2007    14.0            1898    10.8
    7    2015    14.0            1964    9.5                           8    1964    13.8            2015    10.6
    Av Max    13.90        Av Min    10.60          Top Max    14.40        Low Min    9.50

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    Imaginary Mild December 9th to 16th 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    9    1997    12.7            1934    11.2                         10    1994    14.4          1942    9.4
    11    1994    14.5          1994    10.8                         12    1994    13.9          1994    11.9
    13    1972    13.5          1994    10.8                         14    1912    13.9          2006    10.5
    15    2015    13.2          1985    9.8                           16    2015    13.9          1985    9.1
    Av Max    13.80        Av Min    10.40          Top Max    14.50        Low Min    9.10

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    Imaginary Mild December 17th to 24th 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    17    2015    14.1           2015    11.0                        18    2015    15.1           1932    10.5
    19    2015    15.3           2015    10.8                        20    1971    13.9           2015    9.6
    21    2015    13.7           1971    9.6                          22    2015    13.8           1991    10.0
    23    1977    14.7           1991    11.1                        24    1997    13.0           2002    8.7
    Av Max    14.20        Av Min    10.20          Top Max    15.30        Low Min    8.70

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    Imaginary Mild December 25th to 31st 2020

    December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min          December 2020 Max    December 2020 Min
    25    2015    13.1           1983    9.3                          26    2015    13.8           2011    9.7
    27    1974    13.9           1949    8.7                          28    1974    14.3           1987    10.2
    29    1925    13.8           1987    10.9                        30    2015    13.3           1925    9.1
    31    1920    12.4           1901    9.6
    Av Max    13.50        Av Min    9.60          Top Max    14.30        Low Min    8.70

    12_25_31_WARM_500MB.thumb.gif.7f4509f08c0ba8d3db75472ceaff13f6.gif12_25_31_WARM_UKTempAnom.thumb.gif.c8b7ca5ea9f8d07508ada7b8e2bd377a.gif12_25_31_WARM_UKPrecAnom.thumb.gif.29244195410a067cec4758d6487deb67.gif

    Overall Imaginary Mild December 2020 stats

    Av Max      13.86        Av Min    10.22
    MeanCET   12.04        Anomaly  7.41
    Top Max    15.3          Low Min   8.7

    After the very mild Imaginary November 2020 December continues the trend. Although a slightly lower mean CET of 12.04C the CET anomaly is bigger than Imaginary Mild November 2020 with an impressive +7.41C above the 81-10 average. This Imaginary Mild December 2020 shows just how mild December 2015 was as it isn't a massive amount warmer than that December was and shows just how extreme December 2015 actually was.

    Imaginary Mild January 1st to 8th 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    1    2015    13.1         2012    9.2                     2    1976    12.9         1921    8.9
    3    1948    12.7         1932    10.5                   4    1916    13.2         1932    9.7
    5    1983    13.3         1957    9.5                     6    1928    12.7         1983    9.2
    7    2005    12.9         1890    8.8                     8    2007    12.8         1890    8.2
    Av Max    13.00        Av Min    9.30          Top Max    13.30        Low Min    8.20

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    Imaginary Mild January 9th to 16th 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    9    2015    14.0         1971    8.2                     10    1971    12.7      1921    10.4
    11    2007    12.3       1990    8.8                     12    2007    13.1       1976    8.4
    13    2011    12.3       2007    8.8                     14    1968    12.7       2011    9.5
    15    1954    13.1       1968    8.3                     16    1993    13.1       1990    9.8
    Av Max    12.90        Av Min    9.00          Top Max    14.00        Low Min    8.20

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    Imaginary Mild January 17th to 24th 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    17    1934    12.4      1908    9.3                      18    2008    13.2      1920    8.0
    19    1930    13.6      1932    9.9                      20    2008    12.9      1898    9.9
    21    1993    12.4      1898    9.6                      22    1878    12.5      1969    8.7
    23    1884    13.0      1960    9.2                      24    1918    12.5      1969    7.9
    Av Max    12.80        Av Min    9.10          Top Max    13.60        Low Min    7.90

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    Imaginary Mild January 25th to 31st 2021

    January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min          January 2021 Max    January 2021 Min
    25    1977    11.7      1962    7.5                      26    2003    13.2      1903    8.4
    27    2002    13.4      1908    8.2                      28    1921    11.8      1958    8.8
    29    2002    13.0      1921    9.0                      30    1975    12.7      1923    8.5
    31    1995    12.2      2000    8.9
    Av Max    12.60        Av Min    8.50          Top Max    13.40        Low Min    7.50

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    Overall Imaginary Mild January 2021 stats

    Av Max     12.82       Av Min     8.97
    MeanCET  10.9         Anomaly  6.46
    Top Max    14.0         Low Min  7.5

    After the previous 2 mild months Imaginary Mild January 2021 sees the double digit mean CET's continue with a mean CET of 10.9C. This translates into a CET anomaly of +6.46 above the 81-10 average, a similar anomaly to Imaginary Mild November 2020. This means so far we have not seen a mean monthly CET below 10C. Can Imaginary Mild February 2021 deliver a sub 10C mean CET or is the double digit run going to continue?

    Imaginary Mild February 1st to 7th 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    1    1898    13.2          1923    9.8                        2    2004    13.5          1923    10.3
    3    2004    14.2          2004    9.7                        4    2004    14.5          2004    10.8
    5    1990    13.1          2004    10.5                      6    1989    13.4          2011    8.8
    7    1990    12.9          1989    8.7
    Av Max    13.50        Av Min    9.80          Top Max    14.50        Low Min    8.70

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    Imaginary Mild February 8th to 14th 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    8    2000    12.6          1903    10.1                      9    2008    14.1          1903    9.4
    10    1899    14.6        1899    9.4                        11    1939    13.7        1939    9.1
    12    1998    14.3        2002    8.8                        13    1998    16.4        1998    7.6
    14    1998    15.8        1882    7.7
    Av Max    14.50        Av Min    8.90          Top Max    16.40        Low Min    7.60

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    Imaginary Mild February 15th to 21st 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    15    1998    14.2        1958    10.0                      16    1950    12.2        1928    9.4
    17    1920    14.2        1911    8.1                        18    1945    15.0        1911    9.0
    19    1961    13.5        1989    8.4                        20    1998    13.4        1990    9.7
    21    1878    12.6        1903    8.4
    Av Max    13.60        Av Min    9.00          Top Max    15.00        Low Min    8.10

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    Imaginary Mild February 22nd to 28th 2021

    February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min          February 2021 Max    February 2021 Min
    22    1990    13.9        1953    8.6                        23    1990    15.9        1918    8.8
    24    1921    14.1        1922    9.5                        25    1922    14.1        1900    8.0
    26    1945    13.3        1882    9.9                        27    1959    15.4        1945    9.0
    28    1959    16.0        1912    8.6
    Av Max    14.70        Av Min    8.90          Top Max    16.00        Low Min    8.00

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    Overall Imaginary Mild February 2021 stats

    Av Max      14.08      Av Min    9.15
    MeanCET   11.62      Anomaly    7.23
    Top Max    16.4        Low Min    7.6

    Imaginary Mild February 2021 just continues the trend of double digit mean CET's with another very mild 11.62C mean CET which is another impressive 7.23C above the 81-10 average. Although the wet theme does dominate the early part of the month things turn drier and warmer later on and this probably shows that to get very high CET's from mid February onwards the required pattern changes from sub tropical maritime air to warm air from North Africa instead with southerly winds. Will this be the dominant theme in Imaginary Mild March 2021 to achieve the very high CET's?

    Imaginary Mild March 1st to 8th 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    1    1959    14.9          1878    8.9                    2    1977    16.5          1999    8.9
    3    1957    14.3          1979    8.4                    4    1928    16.0          1977    8.1
    5    1961    16.0          1880    7.8                    6    1961    15.3          1989    9.4
    7    1906    14.9          2002    8.6                    8    1961    15.1          2000    10.0
    Av Max    15.40        Av Min    8.80          Top Max    16.50        Low Min    7.80

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    Imaginary Mild March 9th to 16th 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    9    1948    19.9          2000    10.3                  10    1929    17.4        1957    9.9
    11    1957    18.4        1981    10.1                  12    1957    18.4        1957    8.3
    13    1991    17.2        1961    9.0                    14    1948    17.9        1912    8.3
    15    1961    17.9        1957    8.8                    16    1961    20.0        2004    9.6
    Av Max    18.40        Av Min    9.30          Top Max    20.00        Low Min    8.30

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    Imaginary Mild March 17th to 24th 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    17    1990    19.3        2005    10.4                  18    1990    19.6        1898    9.4
    19    1972    17.6        1990    9.3                    20    1929    17.5        1903    9.2
    21    1927    17.8        1931    9.5                    22    1918    16.3        1927    10.4
    23    1945    19.4        1936    9.2                    24    2012    18.9        2005    9.0
    Av Max    18.30        Av Min    9.60          Top Max    19.60        Low Min    9.00

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    Imaginary Mild March 25th to 31st 2021

    March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min          March 2021 Max        March 2021 Min
    25    1953    19.1        1981    9.9                    26    2012    18.8        2006    9.7
    27    2012    19.5        2006    10.9                  28    1929    20.3        1981    9.1
    29    1965    22.1        1945    9.8                    30    1929    19.0        1998    11.2
    31    1907    18.7        1914    9.7
    Av Max    19.60        Av Min    10.00          Top Max    22.10        Low Min    9.10

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    Overall Imaginary Mild March 2021 stats

    Av Max      17.87     Av Min     9.39
    MeanCET   13.63     Anomaly  7.05
    Top Max    22.1        Low Min  7.8

    Imaginary Mild March 2021 gets off to a mixed start but dries out later on. The impressive mild theme continues with a mean CET of 13.63C which is 7.05C above the 81-10 average. By the end of March it is basically summer like with regular CET values in high teens and low 20's by day but the night time values are holding the CET back a little

    Overall Imaginary Mild November to March stats

    Highest Max Daily CET Nov-Mar  22.1C

    Lowest Min Daily CET Nov-Mar      7.5C

    Average Max CET Nov-Mar         14.83C

    Average Min CET Nov-Mar            9.88C

    Mean CET Nov-Mar                     12.36C

    Mean CET Anomaly Nov-Mar      +6.92C

    For mild lovers this is their ideal dream but for cold lovers it is a total nightmare. Having the overall monthly CET averaging at 12.36C for the November to March period is exceptional warmth for the coldest part of the year and during this period not a single air frost, ground frost or snowflake is seen anywhere, not even on Ben Nevis. The highest daily CET value is 22.1C on March 29th and the lowest night time minimum CET value is 7.5C on January 25th.

    If the precipitation anomalies came true then large parts of the UK would be under water, especially in the N and W of the UK and some of those precipitation anomalies for W Scotland, NW England and parts of Wales and SW England are impressive

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Time for a little bit of fun. What if one of the below scenarios played out for winter 2020/21. The first scenario is within this post. I have put the second one in a following post

    ...

    Enjoyed this, thanks.

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  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Another Autumn developing with lots of blocking in the Arctic regions.Can we actually get lucky this Winter where it all doesnt  suddenly vanish  as December begins and the default Winter pattern sets up again.I wont be holding my breath..

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  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Another Autumn developing with lots of blocking in the Arctic regions.Can we actually get lucky this Winter where it all doesnt  suddenly vanish  as December begins and the default Winter pattern sets up again.I wont be holding my breath..

    Exactly!...we've seen 'potential' a couple of times over the last few Autumns leading into Winter for it all to go AWOL, going by the CET series that the MetO uses (1961-90) for anomalies I always think now days in these times of Global Warming (the last 6/7 years) if we have 1 or 2 (consecutively) monthly CET's anywhere below normal then you can almost right off the next couple or so months if you're looking for cold.

    Let's not forget this...nearly a decade since we had a sub -1c CET Winter month (1961-90 series)...and that was Dec 2010, since then nada! this fact gets lost by some on this website.

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    52 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Exactly!...we've seen 'potential' a couple of times over the last few Autumns leading into Winter for it all to go AWOL, going by the CET series that the MetO uses (1961-90) for anomalies I always think now days in these times of Global Warming (the last 6/7 years) if we have 1 or 2 (consecutively) monthly CET's anywhere below normal then you can almost right off the next couple or so months if you're looking for cold.

    Let's not forget this...nearly a decade since we had a sub -1c CET Winter month (1961-90 series)...and that was Dec 2010, since then nada! this fact gets lost by some on this website.

    We are actually going into a grand solar minimum 2020-2050 and will cool down the world similar to Maunder Minimum with cold harsh winters by 2028!  It’s a 400 year cycle. Yes global warming may be real and will resume once this cycle is over. 

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  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    32 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    We are actually going into a grand solar minimum 2020-2050 and will cool down the world similar to Maunder Minimum with cold harsh winters by 2028!  It’s a 400 year cycle. Yes global warming may be real and will resume once this cycle is over. 

    No evidence whatsoever that grand solar minimum period will override GW and have any impacts...only time will tell.

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  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
    57 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    We are actually going into a grand solar minimum 2020-2050 and will cool down the world similar to Maunder Minimum with cold harsh winters by 2028!  It’s a 400 year cycle. Yes global warming may be real and will resume once this cycle is over. 

    ...and this is supported by what science or reputable sources?

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, jcw said:

    ...and this is supported by what science or reputable sources?

    None!:ball-santa-emoji:

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  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

     

    Let's not forget this...nearly a decade since we had a sub -1c CET Winter month (1961-90 series)...and that was Dec 2010, since then nada! this fact gets lost by some on this website.

    10 years without a sub 0 C month is not abnormal. 1896 - 1939 there wasn't a single month below zero. 44 years  and is still a record.

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    51 minutes ago, jcw said:

    ...and this is supported by what science or reputable sources?

    Watch @adapt2030 on YouTube. He will tell you all and look up “grand solar minimum” by valentina zharkova. We already know past grand solar minimums dropped global temperatures in northern hemisphere. Future winters may get interesting! Time will tell...

    Edited by Snow lover 2020
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  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Given the snippets above from the GLOSEA, I wonder if we can expect a slightly better tri month mean in terms of SLP in the next update?

    Not surprising to see Greenland ridging suggested Nov/Dec. Could potentially be a watered down 2010.

     

    Edited by CreweCold
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  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

     Could potentially be a watered down 2010.

     

    Perhaps similar to November/December 1996?

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  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

    10 years without a sub 0 C month is not abnormal. 1896 - 1939 there wasn't a single month below zero. 44 years  and is still a record.

    Sorry mate maybe it's the way I've typed it...I'm talking about an anomaly of 1.0c below the CET series that the MetO uses (for a winter month) not a sub -1.0c month - yes agree for that not to happen over a decade is not abnormal at all.

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  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
    58 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    Watch @adapt2030 on YouTube. He will tell you all and look up “grand solar minimum” by valentina zharkova. We already know past grand solar minimums dropped global temperatures in northern hemisphere. Future winters may get interesting! Time will tell...

    You mean this Valentina Zharkova?  Some more recent reading material which suggests otherwise? 

    Hope David DuByne (@adapt2030) is prepared to continue his research and consider this paper too.......

    41598_2019_45584_Fig1_HTML.png
    WWW.NATURE.COM

    Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in...

     

     

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    5 minutes ago, jcw said:

    You mean this Valentina Zharkova?  Some more recent reading material which suggests otherwise? 

    Hope David DuByne (@adapt2030) is prepared to continue his research and consider this paper too.......

    41598_2019_45584_Fig1_HTML.png
    WWW.NATURE.COM

    Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in...

     

     

    All I’m saying is, I personally think that link of data is probably messed with to feed agenda but we won’t go there... let’s stay on topic my friend.  adapt2030 has over 100k subs. He’s doing pretty well.  

    Edited by Snow lover 2020
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  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
    3 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    All I’m saying is, I personally think that link of data is probably messed with to feed agenda but we won’t go there... let’s stay on topic my friend.  adapt2030 has over 100k subs. He’s doing pretty well.  

    Popularity is not a measure of sensibility or credibility, my friend. Look to the President of the US with millions of followers.

    I'm just saying, balance your research before making what are viewed as "wild" claims in the face of current research & science (and supported by 000's more than the subscribers to Adapt2030). It's not a popularity contest - it's science, facts, research and by many qualified people.

    Stay safe

     

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well folks, however we view the evidence relating to Deep Solar Minima, just remember that Earth's climate in 2020 is very different to what it was in 1836?🤔

    But, be that as it may, most of us I'm sure (myself certainly, as a SAD sufferer!) would love to see a winter with lots of lying snow?

    A great lamppost-watching season beckons... Hopefully!:yahoo:

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