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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Those purple runs are trending towards a stronger than average PV through December though, although too far away to really worry about at this stage.  I think much hangs on the La Nina strength this winter.

Nota huge surprise to see that - Even if that turns out to be the case, most of November/December of sig below average U-Wind strength would give a fair few opportunities!

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

A cold February certainly goes against most of the LRF's I've seen - which seem to suggest the best chances of anything are November/December?

The latest ECM October forecast certainly looks full on +NAO zonal by then, with strong subtropical highs and lower pressure to our NW that we saw pretty much all of last winter.

image.thumb.png.797f5ee371fa4bee9cb446a79b490806.png
 

The seasonals would be much less good at picking up a vortex impact, especially a split. But I did make it clear this was the nirvana scenario for me - and not a forecast......!

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5 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

Crewecold sounds like from your recent posts your slowly going away now from a cold Winter now as before you where quite excited ? 

Yes, always a little disheartening when CC sounds like he’s losing a bit of faith! 🤔

Edited by Don
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2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Lets just say after the first 8 days things are looking "Interesting" for November so far

Let’s make that December and even better, January, then we’re talking. Can’t get as enthused about premature cold in November personally.

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4 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Let's aren't exactly 100% reliable though are they and much still to be resolved in terms of la nina strength, how much the north Pacific will cool (which it is at the moment, QBO situation etc.

Should say LRF's not Let's...

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This isn’t based on anything scientific - I wouldn’t know where to start 😂. However, my prediction for Winter 2020/21 is being a cool and dry one. A lot drier than last year. But I think there will be a fair few snow events around. Including those in Southern UK.

For November, I feel it will be generally a little below average with some blocking to close to our South-West and West in the Atlantic. And some High Pressure at times over Greenland. Do feel, especially with La Niña conditions, the Vortex will be fairly slow again to establish to our North-West. Mean flow from the North-West, and the flow could sometimes turn more to the North dragging in some wintry showers, generally favouring Northern areas. But not exclusively so. Precipitation a tad below normal. 

9CC1BA96-35C4-45B9-BAFD-85C7A94B045D.thumb.jpeg.b84be2f4210bd7fef17a1cb1e8da0a8a.jpeg
 

For December, it has possibilities to be the chilliest month of Winter, hence can see why there’s a lot of talk of the season being front loaded in terms of cold weather. Expect High Pressure to set up over Scandinavia and Low Pressure diverted to the South West of the UK. (This admittedly might go against some others who might go for more of a mid-Atlantic High).

A chance this outlook would bring in a raw flow from the South-East and East. But probably quite dry too, especially across Northern areas. Some wintry showers and perhaps longer spells of rain or sleet (maybe some snow in heavier bursts, especially over the hills) migrating North or West through the UK as Atlantic Lows try to push North against the Scandinavian/European blocking. Some nights could see some thick frosts, particularly again across Northern parts. Precipitation a little below normal, but closer to normal over Southern areas. Mean flow between the South and East, and occasionally North-East.

9DB0D9FC-89A5-435D-8A34-132D565E7EC6.thumb.jpeg.5a33140ae501729de203fb34208d7786.jpeg
 

In January, the Scandinavian blocking I feel will lose its grip and be replaced by a fair amount of mid-latitude blocking over and to the East/South-East of the UK. And lower pressure setting up across the North, particularly over Greenland and parts of Scandinavia. Especially as the Vortex tries to regain some power! Some night-time frost and fog is possible, but there’s likely to be some instances where Atlantic Lows try to flatten out the mid-latitude blocking and introduce a few disturbed spells over the UK, especially across the North and West. Mostly dry overall. Fairly cool. Particularly over Southern areas. Precipitation below normal. 

ED88E29B-F5BF-46DF-930E-724150731659.thumb.jpeg.80c95d6377432798cc4f35ab16a271af.jpeg
 

February will probably see the UK Highs lose some of there mid-latitude blocking form and shift South a little. High Pressure may also return across mostly Western Greenland as the Vortex weakens a touch with a somewhat of a meandering Jet at times. While Northern areas could see spells of unsettled and perhaps windy weather spill in from the Atlantic at times (nothing too wet), Southern parts could continue it’s mostly dry theme, although occasionally some of the unsettled weather further North could spill further South at times. Occasionally, also, the Scandinavian Low Pressure and troughing could displace the Southern UK anti-cyclone a little further West into the Atlantic. This allowing the odd chillier flow from the North-West to establish over the UK with a few wintry showers. Overall, precipitation somewhat below average across the South and East. Closer to normal across the North and West. Temperatures around average to a little above normal. 

F42881A9-7EA3-44EB-8B5D-09576EF624A5.thumb.jpeg.b2ba69f7067c217f50219f0d05488aca.jpeg
 

Nothing again scientific as such. Just an estimation of what might happen. A small chunk of this based on how I think the Vortex could behave the following few months and some of this depending on the ENSO conditions. While I don’t think it will be anything too snow-tacular, am quite optimistic it will be a fair lot better than last year - particularly in terms of wintrier, yet drier, conditions.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Front-loaded winter this winter I reckon.  The forecast below is just for fun!

December:

Mean: 2.0C

Cold, frosty and sunny.  The month starts off sunny but frequent snowfall develops from around mid-month onwards.  An exceptionally cold day in the last third with a maximum temperature of -10C for much of Northern England and highs of only -5/-7C in the South.  Scotland records temperatures below -20C.  A weather front interupts the extreme cold towards the end of the month and dumps 3+ feet of snow in North Wales and Northern England.  Temperatures rapidly rise after this event with a high of 15C on the 31st.

January:

Mean 7.1C

A mild start and then returning to average.  First 20C day recorded on the 4th before temperatures trend back down towards average.  Rainfall above average and generally a zonal month with the odd cooler northerly plunge.

February:

Mean: 9.4C

An exceptionally mild month with an extraordinary mean high of 13.1C.  Initially cloudy and rainy with a tropical maritime airmass.  Towards the final third of the month high pressure builds from the south and an extremely long-fetched southerly wind drags warm air from the Sahara.  Dusty skies result in spectacular sunsets/sunrises and an unprecedented maximum temperature of 23.0C is recorded in Southern England on the 28th (just over two years since the last February record was obliterated).  

Edited by Earthshine
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and I thought I was a 2000+ mild believer, even I'm not sure about the 20 degrees in Jan,Feb,  CET I agree with though

I'm going for 3 zonal months, only a day or 2 PM airstream between lows, bringing temporary snow to northern hills

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No disrespect to anyone but I’ve seen lots of winter forecasts that start with ‘not based on anything in particular or ‘just for fun’. If there’s no science behind them is it really worth writing ? 

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22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

No disrespect to anyone but I’ve seen lots of winter forecasts that start with ‘not based on anything in particular or ‘just for fun’. If there’s no science behind them is it really worth writing ? 

What's the point in writing anything if it isn't backed up by science 🤔?  I'm pretty sure this isn't the model discussion forum page, just the discussion one.

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Just one observation before the cold bandwagon chasing holy grail -NAO commences.It is also important what happens in SE or E Europe. You can easily get this scenario.The heights there are looking already very persistant also western Russia.

gens-28-1-312.png

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7 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, always a little disheartening when CC sounds like he’s losing a bit of faith! 🤔

Not so much losing faith, just commenting on what the modelling is showing.

This being said, nina looks to be stronger than I anticipated/hoped.

Still looks like it'll be a winter of better opportunities than the last few, however.

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1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

What's the point in writing anything if it isn't backed up by science 🤔?  I'm pretty sure this isn't the model discussion forum page, just the discussion one.

What I meant is...what’s the point in writing a long range weather forecast with lots of detail if it isn’t backed up by meteorological science?  Weather forecasting is a science after all 🤷🏻‍♂️ Each to their own and people enjoy writing them and reading them then crack on!

my forecast for the winter is raging blizzards in Dec and then 25c and blue skies for Jan and Feb. not based on science ..just a hunch ! 

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2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

February:

Mean: 9.4C

An exceptionally mild month with an extraordinary mean high of 13.1C.  Initially cloudy and rainy with a tropical maritime airmass.  Towards the final third of the month high pressure builds from the south and an extremely long-fetched southerly wind drags warm air from the Sahara.  Dusty skies result in spectacular sunsets/sunrises and an unprecedented maximum temperature of 23.0C is recorded in Southern England on the 28th (just over two years since the last February record was obliterated).  

23c has been recorded on 9th march before (in the somewhat cooler 1940s), so just 10 days earlier would not be out of the realms of possibility..

20c in Jan.. would have to be a foehn effect to get this.

Edited by SummerShower
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52 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not so much losing faith, just commenting on what the modelling is showing.

This being said, nina looks to be stronger than I anticipated/hoped.

Still looks like it'll be a winter of better opportunities than the last few, however.

Hmm, a real headache as to what this coming winter will bring....  However, very interesting nevertheless!

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Very interesting read over at

John Hammond's Month Ahead - https://weathertrending.com/2020/10/09/john-hammonds-month-ahead-some-winter-hints-blowing-in-the-wind/

First time I've visited this website, and yes annoyingly I had to create an account, but for free. 

With the same caution as sensible folk are expressing here, the signals are apparently there... 

Cue some random criticism, but I'd still recommend a visit. 

Edited by Griff
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1 minute ago, Griff said:

Very interesting read over at

John Hammond's Month Ahead - https://weathertrending.com/2020/10/09/john-hammonds-month-ahead-some-winter-hints-blowing-in-the-wind/

First time I've visited this website, and yes annoyingly I had to create an account, but for free. 

With the same caution as sensible folk are expressing here, the signals are apparently there... 

Cue some random criticism, but I'd still recommend a visit. 

John Hammond is a top bloke.

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30 minutes ago, Griff said:

Very interesting read over at

John Hammond's Month Ahead - https://weathertrending.com/2020/10/09/john-hammonds-month-ahead-some-winter-hints-blowing-in-the-wind/

First time I've visited this website, and yes annoyingly I had to create an account, but for free. 

With the same caution as sensible folk are expressing here, the signals are apparently there... 

Cue some random criticism, but I'd still recommend a visit. 

He is a well known winter ramper, but enjoyable and I do watch his daily forecasts and updates etc.  
 

 

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These new ECMWF charts that are freely available threaten to take the fun out of our amateur attempts to see through the mists.....and if a cold winter is what we are after then the SEAS5 data from 1st October is best ignored. A cold end of November looks to be growing as a signal - but the overall charts for Dec - Feb in terms of pressure anomalies and probabilities attached is grim for cold lovers. Tercile probabilities below - not much suggestion of high lat blocking even in December as a probability.

December

pdf2svg-worker-commands-7d456c69b7-dghzv

 

January 

pdf2svg-worker-commands-7d456c69b7-nl2z5

 

February

pdf2svg-worker-commands-7d456c69b7-g5dnp

 

Not the same, of course, as a synoptic chart and anomalies/probabilities can be deceiving....but not what I wanted to see when beginning to scour the tools this morning. Lower than average pressure over Greenland through the heart of winter makes properly cold spells tough to achieve. Battleground scenarios possible, but the probability of a S/SE Euro high anomaly also suggests a mild continent. 

Fingers crossed for model changes going forward. Glosea next week...

 

Edited by Catacol
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3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

These new ECMWF charts that are freely available threaten to take the fun out of our amateur attempts to see through the mists.....and if a cold winter is what we are after then the SEAS5 data from 1st October is best ignored. A cold end of November looks to be growing as a signal - but the overall charts for Dec - Feb in terms of pressure anomalies and probabilities attached is grim for cold lovers. Tercile probabilities below - not much suggestion of high lat blocking even in December as a probability.

December

pdf2svg-worker-commands-7d456c69b7-dghzv

 

January 

pdf2svg-worker-commands-7d456c69b7-nl2z5

 

February

pdf2svg-worker-commands-7d456c69b7-g5dnp

 

Not the same, of course, as a synoptic chart and anomalies/probabilities can be deceiving....but not what I wanted to see when beginning to scour the tools this morning. Lower than average pressure over Greenland through the heart of winter makes properly cold spells tough to achieve. Battleground scenarios possible, but the probability of a S/SE Euro high anomaly also suggests a mild continent. 

Fingers crossed for model changes going forward. Glosea next week...

 

One saving grace from those charts is there isn't a high probability of low pressure anchored to our north either, there's simply no signal either way which is somewhat more encouraging. 

The signal for high pressure over the Azores like that though isn't ideal.

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It's not just because it's not showing a super snowy winter wonderland, before anyone says so. But, I think in all the years on here it's been incredibly rare for the ECM seasonal to be especially close to the mark. It was certainly miles out in 2009/10.  Obviously I'm just remembering off of the top of my head, and I'm sure it's had some wins along the way, but for me it's one of those I tend to take with a massive pinch of salt. 

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