Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


Mapantz

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

I still think there's plenty of time for things to turn much colder. My prediction still stands, that we will see the mild weather dominating until Christmas time, before a change to much colder weather between Christmas, into the early part of 2021.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

This morning's glosea run is disappointing. If the MetO is correct we are in for a predominantly +NAO winter. We will wait and see if a Nina ridge can give anything of interest in December, and then we may need to hope for an SSW creating impacts outside the forecast envelope. This happened of course in 2018 - all things are possible really in the world of weather.....though I would have liked to see better anomaly predictions from glosea. The Met has become irritatingly accurate.

image.thumb.png.cd411768460bba52f1764b832ab128df.png

Yep.. disappointing for coldies. Indicates a tendency for high pressure to the south and east for DJF

Showing my age here but who remembers a member who accurately and annoying wrote of   chunks of winter based on the pressure in Bern being above something like 1020.... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
44 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I think it's safe to say it's game over. A strong CB la Nina.

2cat_20201101_sst_months24_global_deter_public.png

Never seems to fall for UK does it. Who knows maybe it will change

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

So will this winter complete the trilogy of pure rubbish winters.  2018/19, 2019/20 and 2020/21??

Like the late 80s trilogy and late 90s trilogy. 

Edited by sundog
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

See a lot of glasses in here nearing empty.. that was quick we have just seen again where a certain pattern looked the likely outcome (colder conditions) then for whatever reason that’s not quite went to plan but again just shows how quickly things can change, that also goes for things changing to a colder pattern as I’ve said in the past if u look at the charts even a few weeks prior to some of our cold spells u probably wouldn’t have seen them coming yet people can somehow write off the entire winter each year without fail personally I prefer to see how things develop as we go through each of the winter months, all this writing off would be like going fishing and believing you are not going to catch anything, no point even casting your line ⛄️ 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

See a lot of glasses in here nearing empty.. that was quick we have just seen again where a certain pattern looked the likely outcome (colder conditions) then for whatever reason that’s not quite went to plan but again just shows how quickly things can change, that also goes for things changing to a colder pattern as I’ve said in the past if u look at the charts even a few weeks prior to some of our cold spells u probably wouldn’t have seen them coming yet people can somehow write off the entire winter each year without fail personally I prefer to see how things develop as we go through each of the winter months, all this writing off would be like going fishing and believing you are not going to catch anything, no point even casting your line ⛄️ 

Mine have always been this way! image.png.93cb30b04360c25be2a2027e08e80112.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Maybe their forecast for DJF will be as big as fail as last year when they went for HLB and complete opposite happened throughout the winter.

And they kept forecasting cold weather would arrive  throughout their shorter-range forecasts too

So big fail from the Met office last Winter.

Basically don't take too much notice of any long range seasonal forecasts,

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe their forecast for DJF will be as big as fail as last year when they went for HLB and complete opposite happened throughout the winter.

And they kept forecasting cold weather would arrive  throughout their shorter-range forecasts too

So big fail from the Met office last Winter.

Basically don't take too much notice of any long range seasonal forecasts,

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but please remember the law of Sod!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I think it's safe to say it's game over. A strong CB la Nina.

2cat_20201101_sst_months24_global_deter_public.png

with a CB strong La Nina and a warm northern pacific..  it could be a brutal winter here or super mild.. there will be no in-between.. odds favour a very cold snowy winter right now 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

with a CB strong La Nina and a warm northern pacific..  it could be a brutal winter here or super mild.. there will be no in-between.. odds favour a very cold snowy winter right now 

Yes yes yes yes yes. But in all seriousness i don't like the inbetweens and would rather have a strong winter forecast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

Yes yes yes yes yes. But in all seriousness i don't like the inbetweens and would rather have a strong winter forecast. 

Cheeky Monkey lives in Canada.

There's zero chance of a brutal Winter on these shores.

Super mild though. You bet.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Cheeky Monkey lives in Canada.

There's zero chance of a brutal Winter on these shores.

Super mild though. You bet.

Oh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
59 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe their forecast for DJF will be as big as fail as last year when they went for HLB and complete opposite happened throughout the winter.

And they kept forecasting cold weather would arrive  throughout their shorter-range forecasts too

So big fail from the Met office last Winter.

Basically don't take too much notice of any long range seasonal forecasts,

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was that not the winter before last?

When it comes to predicting a cold winter glosea doesn't seem to be as accurate.

However when it forecasts a mild one its often fairly accurate on that score.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Coldies need to hold their nerve here.

While ENSO looks unfavourable and Glosea is not pretty viewing it is not a death knell for cold episodes for the UK...

Let's see where we are in another 2 or 3 weeks time...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Coldies need to hold their nerve here.

While ENSO looks unfavourable and Glosea is not pretty viewing it is not a death knell for cold episodes for the UK...

Let's see where we are in another 2 or 3 weeks time...

Pretty standard practise every year now but I guess anything is possible

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

That Glosea run is a shocker

However, looking through some of the historic forecasts in Novembers, the cold winter of 12-13 (and very cold March) wasn't really called in November 2012. The cold March wasn't really convincingly called until Feb 2013. The cool Jan 2013 was missed as far as I can interpret the data

November 2009 didn't seem to really get that forecast correct.

2010 it did call. But it was forecasting for the cold to last longer than just the December and we all know it never returned to lowland England after 28 Dec

November 2013 it didn't predict the rain that fell that winter either, going for below normal precipitation when we ended up with one of the wettest winters on record (esp Jan and Feb and, even in December 2013's and January 2014's forecast, it was still going for below normal precipitation and above normal pressure). 

Feb 2018 wasn't well-forecast either

So, let's not write things off just yet. It's not infallible and, besides, it could be hiding dramatic extremes. December could come in freezing and Jan/Feb very mild or Dec/Feb very warm and Jan freezing. You get the picture. But Glosea has to be treated seriously. 

Right, I'm off to see if I can find some more straws to clutch

image.thumb.png.98dcaca1eff5337a6f8e585fda5196df.png

Edited by LRD
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, LRD said:

That Glosea run is a shocker

However, looking through some of the historic forecasts in Novembers, the cold winter of 12-13 (and very cold March) wasn't really called in November 2012. The cold March wasn't really convincingly called until Feb 2013. The cool Jan 2013 was missed as far as I can interpret the data

November 2009 didn't seem to really get that forecast correct.

2010 it did call but even then it was only the December that was poor

November 2013 it didn't predict the rain that fell that winter either, going for below normal precipitation when we ended up with one of the wettest winters on record (esp Jan and Feb and, even in December's forecast, it was going for below normal precipitation and above normal pressure)

Feb 2018 wasn't well-forecast either

So, let's not write things off just yet. It's not infallible and, besides, it could be hiding dramatic extremes. December could come in freezing and Jan/Feb very mild or Dec/Feb very warm and Jan freezing. You get the picture. But Glosea has to be treated seriously. 

Right, I'm off to see if I can find some more straws to clutch

image.thumb.png.98dcaca1eff5337a6f8e585fda5196df.png

Some good points there tbh. Has for the straws I buy in bulk, gets me threw to march

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Didn't the met office also call a cold Winter for 2016/17 and thinking even further back, 2007/08?. 

Just mentioning to highlight how even if they were predicting a cold Winter this year, it couldn't be taken as a done deal. Hopefully this could also apply for a mild prediction, even if the law of averages are always more in a mild Winters favour. ?‍♂️

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Some very mild winters still had some potent cold spells. Ridiculous to think the whole winter will play-out exactly as forecast for THREE WHOLE MONTHS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Fair to say that quite a bit of pessimism has come about in last 48 hours in relation to chances of a cold winter for the UK.AS others have said the models don’t predict a pretty picture in this respect but really apart from November 2010 which picked up the infamous late november to late December cold spell very few cold spells in the last 10 years have been picked up a long way in advance so let’s just see where we pan out by late November shall we?When all said and done we live in the UK and not Canada so if we get just one cold spell say of 5-7 days in the whole 3 months of winter then so be it-if we get more than that then see it as a bonus.I share the frustrations of many on here that would love another December 2010 or March 2013 but we have to be realistic that the chances of them are slim.

in what has been an incredibly tough year for everyone let’s just get some perspective and the weather will do what it wants to do but remember it is just the weather!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...