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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 hours ago, Beanz said:


So to sum it all up.  November is expected to be average 

Yes sounds a good call tbh

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I suspect Nov will be colder than average...

Lots of dry cold foggy weather through the month...(after the next few days)..

I hope you’re right, would be nice for November to start feeling a bit wintry.  

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Even if November is below average it won't be by much (and I take it we're talking about the 81-2010 series?)...though in the last few months there has been reason to be a little more optimistic about cold chances due to the chilly July (by recent standards), the cold end to September and first half of October so a possibility of cold spells/snaps to come though really cannot see anything in the way of a cold anomaly CET month over this winter period, mild periods always seem to snuggle in each month.

The last winter month below -1c anomaly on the 61-90 CET series that the MetO uses was nearly a decade ago...which tells us everything we need to know.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

CanSIPS remains postive about december, later in the winter zonal.

5f9ea61dd57e5.png

The reds are deceptive of course...

December would return dry and  cold if that chart was accurate. ..

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The reds are deceptive of course...

December would return dry and  cold if that chart was accurate. ..

Thanks, scale seems to make it look deceptively above average temperature at first glance.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
50 minutes ago, Griff said:

Thanks, scale seems to make it look deceptively above average temperature at first glance.

 

cansips_T2ma_eu_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
27 minutes ago, jules216 said:

 

cansips_T2ma_eu_2.png

Yep! that would some that up CanSIPS forecast up for 2m temps...days near or slightly above normal with some chilly nights, all depends on how much mT air you get in the mix. Interestingly the DWD model (German) had high pressure anomalies near to or just the north west of the UK for Dec with the ECM MSLP ens ensemble means...one of the few seasonal models that didn't predict northern blocking for the winter of 2018/19.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
49 minutes ago, jules216 said:

 

cansips_T2ma_eu_2.png

Awful profile for December, would indicate high pressure over UK with cold air channeld into SE Europe, winter 2017 was similar and as boring as hell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Awful profile for December, would indicate high pressure over UK with cold air channeld into SE Europe, winter 2017 was similar and as boring as hell. 

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

I'm not a fan of fog and frost nw. Heating bills go up and it seems a bit of a waste of time in winter. Guess it's festive esp around Xmas but I'm a snow or nothing geek that said its more cheerfull than a westerly gale and flooding 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yep! that would some that up CanSIPS forecast up for 2m temps...days near or slightly above normal with some chilly nights, all depends on how much mT air you get in the mix. Interestingly the DWD model (German) had high pressure anomalies near to or just the north west of the UK for Dec with the ECM MSLP ens ensemble means...one of the few seasonal models that didn't predict northern blocking for the winter of 2018/19.

do you have link to DWD November update?thnks

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
19 minutes ago, jules216 said:

do you have link to DWD November update?thnks

Sorry no...just the December thumbnail which was shown with other model MSLP update thumbnails. You'll find them back in this thread around 10th October or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

Just what we need given current stay at home situation, dry sunny weather to get people active - sunshine is what we need on order on tap for next few weeks, and I would be very happy if such a profile verified.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Just now, damianslaw said:

Just what we need given current stay at home situation, dry sunny weather to get people active - sunshine is what we need on order on tap for next few weeks, and I would be very happy if such a profile verified. Endless grey overcast wet days when it doesn't get light is not what we need.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The main issue is that once we get into December high pressure doesn't necessarily translate to dry sunny weather.  It can do (I especially remember December 2001 for long periods of dry sunny weather with some overnight frost and fog) but you can also get prolonged spells of anticyclonic gloom when it never really gets light all day.  The most reliable pattern for sunshine in December varies depending on where you live but I reckon that in the north-west it's probably a predominantly northerly regime (December 2010 was record-breaking for sunshine as well as cold in many parts of the north-west of Britain) while in the east and south it's probably a polar maritime west/north-westerly type like in the Decembers of 1999 and 2014.

Anyway from my experiences with long-range forecasting I haven't found CanSIPS to be among the more reliable long-range models.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

You surprised me there Andy...

I would have thought an awful profile would be Atlantic dominated...

At the very least the above chart would bring frosts fog etc...

 

I would prefer zonality to endless anticyclonic gloom which high pressure in winter inevitably brings. At least with zonality you can get Pm or even Arctic airmasses with at least some snow on hills. A uK high is a winter killer.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Zonality is only worth it if the cold variety. As an outdoors lover, I’d take a high over zonality any day, especially a cold one or an inversion. Frost, fog, sun, frozen ground... yes please! A spell of cold zonality, a slider then a high would be perfect.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
25 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Zonality is only worth it if the cold variety. As an outdoors lover, I’d take a high over zonality any day, especially a cold one or an inversion. Frost, fog, sun, frozen ground... yes please! A spell of cold zonality, a slider then a high would be perfect.

Couldn’t agree more 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
57 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Zonality is only worth it if the cold variety. As an outdoors lover, I’d take a high over zonality any day, especially a cold one or an inversion. Frost, fog, sun, frozen ground... yes please! A spell of cold zonality, a slider then a high would be perfect.

Agree, typically zonality in winter is predominantly long periods of westerly, southwestern airstreams and one day NW or N wonders. Such airstreams here at least bring incessant damp overcast and often very wet skies, just as bad as anti cyclones, oh and gales as well.. and flooding, no joy in that whatsoever. We can get more colder zonal periods when jet aligns more NW-SE trajectory, but these seem harder to come by nowadays.. 

It very much depends where a high sits, sometimes when overhead can bring sunny weather sometimes grey especially if we see fronts get caught within, normally happens when we have an airflow from off Atlantic riding over the top, anticyclones centred on top or even better jusg to our north usually much cleaner.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Agree, typically zonality in winter is predominantly long periods of westerly, southwestern airstreams and one day NW or N wonders. Such airstreams here at least bring incessant damp overcast and often very wet skies, just as bad as anti cyclones, oh and gales as well.. and flooding, no joy in that whatsoever. We can get more colder zonal periods when jet aligns more NW-SE trajectory, but these seem harder to come by nowadays.. 

It very much depends where a high sits, sometimes when overhead can bring sunny weather sometimes grey especially if we see fronts get caught within, normally happens when we have an airflow from off Atlantic riding over the top, anticyclones centred on top or even better jusg to our north usually much cleaner.

Indeed. In mobile setups, I’ve noticed over the years that new year is a turning point. Southwesterlies are annoyingly persistent in Oct-Dec (now is a classic example) but then colder westerlies and northwesterlies gain the high ground in January to March. 

Fortunately we don’t suffer quite the same lengthy drearyness as you in the northwest from damp or wet southwesterlies as they’re often dry and the wet period is associated with the passing of a low so a brief affair.

Its quite welcome to see non Atlantic weather on the horizon now. The atypical year continues...

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

November 2020 not behaving like a typical moderate/strong La Nina. Where is mid Atlantic ridge? But its behaving like recent years.Come November we get north Pacific high,Atlantic trough and Euro High. Anomalies are copying  SST very well.

CollageMaker_20201102_004604691.jpg

CollageMaker_20201102_005306864.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Dont like the charts so much now.Looks like the High wont get far enough North and we are ending up with a Eurotrash High.Hate that  as it can get into a stalemate with the low pressure in the Atlantic and we get weeks of winds from a mild  direction,and eventually the low slowly pushes nearer and finally Zonal take over.Seen it happen countless times since the late 80s.

Dont want another mild winter,had enough over recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Here's a clip I found on Youtube, I think it was Saturday 12th December 1981. It was from Swap Shop, the date says 1981 and the clue is the Christmas decorations and the discussion of how severe the weather was and that sounds like it was from that weekend in December 1981 

 

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