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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental...

 

 

anomp.11.1.2010.gif

Yes - see all the warmth just to the NE of the equator.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

From our American friends.

382.jpg
LINK.SPRINGER.COM

The present work identifies two types of La Niña based on the spatial distribution of sea...

 

Knipsel.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
53 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

look at the latest forecast.

image.thumb.png.9d0bfa905ba13211421764fea400de41.png

Is the CFS better at forecasting ocean temperatures than it is the weather?

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

So had a wee look back at la nina winters near solar minimum below.

1984-1985                            January: 1985 0.8 February: 1985 2.1 Snowy

1995-1996                            December 1995: 2.3 February 1996: 2.5 Snowy

2010-2011 December CET: -0.7 Snowy

Going by that we should expect to see atleast 1 winter month a good bit colder than average.

 

Screenshot_20201030-094122_Chrome.jpg

unnamed.jpg

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

look at the latest forecast.

image.thumb.png.9d0bfa905ba13211421764fea400de41.png

Zoiks. As stated previously - if we are going to go strong Nina I hope it goes very strong Nina and drops below -2. That would at least put us in uncharted territory and add a bit of intrigue.......

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Zoiks. As stated previously - if we are going to go strong Nina I hope it goes very strong Nina and drops below -2. That would at least put us in uncharted territory and add a bit of intrigue.......

 

No, in winter 1917 there such a strong La Nina.

http://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

In this chart you see -2c in winter 1917.

Ek4rHLnXUAA2NYV.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

look at the latest forecast.

image.thumb.png.9d0bfa905ba13211421764fea400de41.png

CFS really is adamant about a super Nina but still hope it is over doing it.  However, a super Nina may just be what the world needs right now to help at least temporarily curb the warming?

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Quote

     

    I can live with these postage stamps from GEFS 6Z, they are an upgrade against what we are seeing now. Some form of blocking likely by middle of November. Just please dont be sinker and keep the high as far north as possible, weather it be Urals,Scandi,Iceland or Greenland, just no Sceuro  

gens_panel_qqq2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
6 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

No, in winter 1917 there such a strong La Nina.

http://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

In this chart you see -2c in winter 1917.

Ek4rHLnXUAA2NYV.jpg

Which interestingly with all said about strong la Nina effect on UK winters (super Nina 1916?), this was one winter which is mentioned amongst coldest winters of 20th century (colder than 2009/10 winter by near to 1c). 

For reference on enso years - see Eric Webb Twitter / 

WWW.WEBBERWEATHER.COM

Figure 1. December 1877 Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies via HADISST2.1

 

screen-shot-2020-10-21-at-1-42-53-pm_orig.thumb.png.c0fde46bc1e9e609efc6e50991c96936.png

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, Bullseye said:

Which interestingly with all said about strong la Nina effect on UK winters (super Nina 1916?), this was one winter which is mentioned amongst coldest winters of 20th century (colder than 2009/10 winter by near to 1c). 

For reference on enso years - see Eric Webb Twitter / 

WWW.WEBBERWEATHER.COM

Figure 1. December 1877 Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies via HADISST2.1

 

screen-shot-2020-10-21-at-1-42-53-pm_orig.thumb.png.c0fde46bc1e9e609efc6e50991c96936.png

Running NCEP archive data for 1916/17 shows lots of blocking. Early season Niña ridge arrives in early December following a very westerly and zonal November, and after a brief return to zonal at the end of December the ridge becomes quasi-permanent over Scandy bringing in what looks like a lot of cold air from the east. Sustained blocking.

I’ll take it. Sample size of one - let’s have a ENSO region of lower than -2. What can go wrong?!

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 hours ago, Don said:

CFS really is adamant about a super Nina but still hope it is over doing it.  However, a super Nina may just be what the world needs right now to help at least temporarily curb the warming?

super nina will have no all effects on long term climate change, the effects will last just the normal time lag then once the next nino come along it will mean nothing, the only way ENSO would cool the planet would be a string of cold ENSO events but IMO ENSO is a symptom not a cause, eg if -  a string of super ninas occured and more often than nino events it would be because of an unexpected reversal in climate change not the cause i would say.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

So true, that's why I'm still in the mild camp! wet at 17 degrees, wet at 5 degrees, err I'll take 17

we all know when winter proper starts, there will be a huge PV over Greenie, wih the Atlantic roaring away

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
25 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

You really don't get it do you? Folk like different seasons, they look forward and enjoy the prospect of that season, just like you do in early to mid Spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
42 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is there so much excitement over hints of northern blocking in mid November.  Sigh, some people need to double check the date! Its still only mid Autumn not mid Winter. Snow on the hills, yes - but snow in low level towns and cities, ermm no. Even with a sharp direct E'ly in November the real cold air is still likely to struggle to reach UK shores, our part of the N Hemisphere is still too warm for major snowfall. 

We can definitely get decent snow in November. 1996, 2005, 2010 just a few of the more notable examples off the top of my head from round here, no doubt there's more. More recently we had a covering of snow in November 2017 as well. Right now there's nothing pointing to an above average November this year.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland

If it can snow in Jersey on Bonfire Night, I'm sure it can snow in mainland UK in November 

NOAA_1_1980110518_1.thumb.png.7f2932250efe2a2f487c769719db60b2.pngNOAA_1_1980110518_2.thumb.png.dc3c2660db3e71a3b4528255d3238789.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Snow in November...the GFS parallel (non operational) would I’m sure bring us a flake or two but don’t tell everyone

 

image.thumb.png.21255074f6b417e5085bbdd81360a84d.pngimage.thumb.png.580b4d2197dfd560371372f4cf1e3064.png

Beautiful chart

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Beautiful chart

NH view is even better on the eye

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.313a3e62e7c305a59fa131e7df08f1b9.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.2316f28151ad9aa98ec8c7e5a5d3eb39.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

NH view is even better on the eye

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.313a3e62e7c305a59fa131e7df08f1b9.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.2316f28151ad9aa98ec8c7e5a5d3eb39.png

Push that ahead another month and bingo!

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