Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion

[Snowkim]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty much everything points towards cold early doors...

That's the dream!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty much everything points towards cold early doors...

Funnily enough the pattern of mid-Atlantic blocking we are currently seeing (and what is being highlighted in FI) is actually more of November composite for Nina development (similar for December but more pressure on the ridge indicating more of a NW than N flow), the composites for weak and moderate Nina development actually suggest more of UK/Scandi High solution for the UK in October, in this sense we are overpeforming the mean for our opening Q4 gambit.

...........

QBO value for September (Standardised) was above +1 and from next month we will actually be above last year.

PDO value for September was a solid -1.01 which narrowly is the coolest September value since 2012. 

 

[summer blizzard]

Credit to Stadium on an American forum but the Euro is pretty poor during January especially and probably for most during February (classic moderate Nina Feb chart). 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_10/20201005_103731.jpg.e48c960d9a8367f0f317ba81eb8d2cb7.jpg

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_10/20201005_103752.thumb.jpg.3f4f6cdecab07104b51d8b411ef2efad.jpg

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_10/20201005_103810.thumb.jpg.dfdb56ca06125d53eb2423c76944a2d5.jpg

[iceman1991]

Just checked in on Brian gaze weather outlook predicting milder than average winter for 2020/21  early thoughts he never goes back what he says on passed predictions that which is massive shame as I highly rate him especially for winter as he hasn’t got one wrong yet there’s always hope but can’t see it hopefully I’m wrong 

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Just checked in on Brian gaze weather outlook predicting milder than average winter for 2020/21  early thoughts he never goes back what he says on passed predictions that which is massive shame as I highly rate him especially for winter as he hasn’t got one wrong yet there’s always hope but can’t see it hopefully I’m wrong 

Never got one wrong?  Since when?  Must be a lot of wriggle room in the words of a forecast to claim that!  

[Seasonal Trim]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Never got one wrong?  Since when?  Must be a lot of wriggle room in the words of a forecast to claim that!  

I don't think even Brian would claim to have got every forecast for Winter correct. He'd be minted if he had.

[cheshire snow]

24 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Just checked in on Brian gaze weather outlook predicting milder than average winter for 2020/21  early thoughts he never goes back what he says on passed predictions that which is massive shame as I highly rate him especially for winter as he hasn’t got one wrong yet there’s always hope but can’t see it hopefully I’m wrong 

The winter forecast is issued on the 2nd December on two and is written by Gav.I think what Brian is suggesting in his opinion on current modeling he is suggesting at this stage a milder than average winter.

C.S

[Mike Poole]

It is October now, life is on hold.

Does anyone pine for the October Pattern Index (OPI)?  How we need it now.  To give a false sense of security, to relieve the boredom, to generate discussion.  

It was great every GFS run an update on an output parameter that no-one understood but we could all factor into our musings of the coming winter!  And massive fluctuations.  Nostalgia!  

We need an OPI this year, so I call on members to produce one that we can engage with through the boredom of local or national lockdowns.  Surely @Steve Murr, @chionomaniac, @lorenzo @Thundery wintry showers and many others could come up with an index that predicts our winter with 4x day updates that we can avidly follow in the run up to winter.  At stake: People’s mental health!  In the national interest!

Edited October 5, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

I’m sure many people could make up a ‘an index that predicts our winter’. But it wouldn’t be very accurate! I think most seasoned members realise  that the OPI was very inaccurate along with the ‘fog index’. It’s about as useful as ‘red sky at night shepherds delight’ & seaweed. I’ll never forget year before last when all forecasts pointed to a cold start to winter and the BBC even broadcast forecasts showing a very cold start to winter & cold and snow starting in 2 weeks time...alas it never happened and the winter was pants! 
 

[smilersnow]

Does anyone know how early it was prior to the Dec 2010 cold blast that we knew it was going to happen? In Leeds it never really got above freezing until xmas. Did we have an idea in October? 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, smilersnow said:

Does anyone know how early it was prior to the Dec 2010 cold blast that we knew it was going to happen? In Leeds it never really got above freezing until xmas. Did we have an idea in October? 

The Met Office picked up on it in their November forecasts (not the severity obviously) but before that, no. Equally the winter before got people excited in November when it was clear the stratosphere was failing to couple but not really beforehand (and we've had Autumns fail to couple such as 2016 and 2017 before but come late December it came to naught). 

In short i'd not get too excited at this juncture. 

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ll never forget year before last when all forecasts pointed to a cold start to winter and the BBC even broadcast forecasts showing a very cold start to winter & cold and snow starting in 2 weeks time...alas it never happened and the winter was pants! 
 

Ah Winter 2018/19...still gives me nightmares! 

Everyone waiting and waiting for Narnia landscapes and the Winter of a snow lovers dreams on many occasions...

Met Office UK outlook 18/11/18 to 02/12/18...

 

Met Office outlook 29/12/18 to 12/01/19...

 

Met Office outlook 31/12/18 to 14/01/2019...

 

The best one...Met Office outlook 13/02/19 to 27/02/19...

 

Met Office three month outlook issued 14/12/18...

 

Now here is what actually happened...

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/february-and-winter-statistics

 

The point of this post...don’t believe anything you read with regards to long term forecasts/outlooks - appreciate the work/time put into them of course.

What will be...will be! 

I will take a repeat of these months for Winter 2020/21.

December 2009 or 2010.

 

January 2010:

 

February 2010: 

 

The top tier Winter months for me!

 

All the best to you all.
 

[pdiddy]

14 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

Just checked in on Brian gaze weather outlook predicting milder than average winter for 2020/21  early thoughts he never goes back what he says on passed predictions that which is massive shame as I highly rate him especially for winter as he hasn’t got one wrong yet there’s always hope but can’t see it hopefully I’m wrong 

To be fair, that's just an update from him, rather than his winter forecast; more of a "based on what the models are saying at this point"

[Don]

1 hour ago, pdiddy said:

To be fair, that's just an update from him, rather than his winter forecast; more of a "based on what the models are saying at this point"

That update is from early September, too.  He may see things a little differently now.

[SqueakheartLW]

As I promised a couple of weeks ago I would have my next CFS update for the November 2020 to March 2021 period

The following is the latest outcomes from the CFS monthly model from The Weather Outlook website

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

CFS 00Z 500hpa anomalies    Start 23/09/2020    End 06/10/2020        Last 06/10/2020

Temps        Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Precip        Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar
V Mild          0         0        0        0        0       V Dry           1        1        0        0         0
Mild              0        1        1        0        0       Dry               3        8        3        1         3
Average       9         8        7        8       9       Average        8        2        5        6         8
Cold             5         5       6         6       4       Wet               2        3        4        6         2
V Cold          0        0        0        0        1       V Wet           0        0        1        1         1

TOT    14 days worth of data

Key Temp figures    Key Precip Figures
V Mild    +2.00         V Dry      0%
Mild       +1.00          Dry         50%
Average +0.00         Average 100%
Cold       -1.00          Wet        150%
V Cold    -2.00         V Wet     200%

Using the conversions in the key figures above to work out the predicted CET and Precipitation %

Example working out using November figures
V Mild:0x2=0 Mild:0x1=0      Average:9x0=0         Cold:5x-1=-5     V Cold:0x-2=0   TOTAL = -5      AVERAGE: -5/14 = -0.36
V Dry:1x0=0  Dry:3x50=150 Average:8x100=800 Wet:2x150=300 V Wet:0x200=0 TOTAL = 1250 AVERAGE: 1250/14 = 89.29%

Now using the same format for the other 4 months we end up with the following:

November CET                       -0.36C COLDER        November Precip            89.29% OF NOV AV
December CET                       -0.29C COLDER        December Precip            75.00% OF DEC AV
January CET                           -0.36C COLDER        January Precip               103.57% OF JAN AV
February CET                         -0.43C COLDER        February Precip              125.00% OF FEB AV
March CET                             -0.43C COLDER        March Precip                   110.71% OF MAR AV
OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM -0.37C COLDER        OVERALL NOV-MAR % 100.71% OF NOV-MAR AV

Compare these with the values I got from the longer summer analysis of November 2020 to March 2021

CFS 00Z 500hpa anomalies    Start 06/07/2020    Last 22/09/2020
Temps    Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Precip    Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar
V Mild       0        1        1        1        0       V Dry       0        0        3        2        0
Mild         23      16      15      15      15       Dry         25      37      14      16      19
Average  26       24      28      31      43      Average  34      24      30      21      26
Cold        30       38      33      28      18      Wet         19     18       31      35      29
V Cold      0        0         2        4        3       V Wet      1       0         1        5        5

TOT    79 Days worth of data

Now to compare the averages calculated from both sets of data we have the following. The most recent analysis is in bold

23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis November CET                        -0.36C COLDER November Precip         89.29% OF NOV AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis November CET                           -0.08C COLDER November Precip           97.47% OF NOV AV

23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis December CET                        -0.29C COLDER December Precip         75.00% OF DEC AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis December CET                          -0.25C COLDER December Precip            87.97% OF DEC AV

23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis January CET                           -0.36C COLDER January Precip             103.57% OF JAN AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis January CET                              -0.25C COLDER January Precip               108.23% OF JAN AV

23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis February CET                         -0.43C COLDER February Precip            125.00% OF FEB AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis February CET                            -0.24C COLDER February Precip              115.82% OF FEB AV

23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis March CET                              -0.43C COLDER March Precip                 110.71% OF MAR AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis March CET                                -0.11C COLDER  March Precip                   112.66% OF MAR AV

06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM -0.37C COLDER OVERALL NOV-MAR % 100.71% OF NOV-MAR AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM    -0.19C COLDER OVERALL NOV-MAR %  104.43% OF NOV-MAR AV

It would appear that the last 2 weeks of data has seen the CFS shift further towards a colder than average outcome between November 2020 and March 2021 and has got ever so slightly drier overall but still a tiny margin above 100% of average precipitation during the November to March period

November 2020

CET - CFS has made November a more definite odds on colder than average month now with the swing from a small -0.08C Colder to a more definite -0.36C Colder
PRECIP - Precipitation values have fallen away from a close to average 97.47% to a drier than average 89.29%

December 2020

CET - CFS maintains the slightly colder than average signal for December but with the smallest shift of the months by just -0.04C from -0.25C to -0.29C Colder
PRECIP - Precipitation remains predicted to be drier than average overall and maintains December as the driest month of all the months at 75% of average

January 2021

CET - CFS has made January just a bit colder than before at a new -0.36C colder compared with -0.25C during the summer analysis
PRECIP - Precipitation remains slightly above average overall but less so now and could now at 103.57% be classed as basically average

February 2021

CET - CFS has really dropped the predicted CET for February down to a now respectable -0.43C Colder. CFS must be seeing a back loaded winter this year
PRECIP - Precipitation has been predicted to be the wettest month of winter at 125% of average. With the colder CET this could be a few snow makers in there too

March 2021

CET - CFS predicts the cold to continue on into March 2021 too with an anomaly at the same level as February 2021 at -0.43C colder too
PRECIP - Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal at 110.71% of average so more snow makers possible, especially earlier in the month before temps rise

OVERALL NOV 2020 TO MAR 2021

CET - CFS predicts an overall colder than average November 2020 to March 2021 period at an average of -0.37 Colder, this compares to -0.19 colder with the earlier summer analysis so if you want a colder winter the CFS is currently tending in the right direction

PRECIP - CFS predicts close to average precipitation overall between November 2020 and March 2021. It has maintained the drier earlier on signal and the wetter later on signal with December maintaining the driest month signal and February the wettest

Edited October 6, 2020 by SqueakheartLW

[Penrith Snow]

The Glossea cold winter of 2018/19 was soooo disappointing, the MetO long range model rarely predicts cold conditions but right from mid November to mid January the MetO outlook was for colder wintry conditions. With memories of the 2018 beast from the east still fresh all we had to do was wait. In the end we were rewarded with record winter warmth in February and an even worse winter in 2020. Now Glossea is predicting a mild zonal winter you can bet it will be 100% accurate  

[Premiere Neige]

Good news is that the north Pacific around Alaska and Canada has cooled substantially in the past week or so...

[Paul_1978]

29 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

The Glossea cold winter of 2018/19 was soooo disappointing, the MetO long range model rarely predicts cold conditions but right from mid November to mid January the MetO outlook was for colder wintry conditions. With memories of the 2018 beast from the east still fresh all we had to do was wait. In the end we were rewarded with record winter warmth in February and an even worse winter in 2020. Now Glossea is predicting a mild zonal winter you can bet it will be 100% accurate  

Is it? Do we have a link to that? Sorry if it’s already been posted. 

[MP-R]

Merry Christmas from the Christmas Forecasting Snow:

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by MP-R

[SqueakheartLW]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Merry Christmas from the Christmas Forecasting Snow:

 

Loved seeing this in my daily viewing of my CFS Christmas 9 month run analysis today. Entered into very cold category easily and wet so a real snow maker here

[SMU]

Lots of comms about the early signs.

When we think about it everyone looks to see if they can find that magical blend of teleconnections to forecast whats coming - well we can piggy back the METO seasonal update.

In the October 2009 update the forecast was already on the meto website for large scale winter blocking > this would have been driven my the Glosea stratospheric forecasts.

See here...

Also October 2010

2019 was a car crash... For us...

So my first landmark this season is coming in 6 days on the meto seasonal > then again on the 12th of November...

Other than that - what interests me this year

- Zonal wind speed 6 weeks spanning Oct 20 > Dec 01

- Polar cap heights across November to see how well the PV is propergating downwards or whether the blocking is holding station

- Ural blocking can force an early disruption to the PV

- Any sign of an early canadian warming...

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Daniel Finch]

Oh goodness me! Winter discussion already... just strapping myself in for tantrums and hypers... teehee 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 05/10/2020 at 15:15, CreweCold said:

Pretty much everything points towards cold early doors...

Woollies away then Nov/Dec

[Bullseye]

Comments also provide some interest with GLOSEA mentioned. Initial tweet is 3-month anomaly.

Should add ECM are going for weak-moderate la nina so likely playing big part in this going into first part of winter. ECM and METEO both the "weakest" with regard to La Nina strength. 

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Bullseye

[bluearmy]

@SylvainTV - are you able to take any data feeds of the freely available stuff or is it only going to be on the ecmwf website ??