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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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This thread has been opened for those who want to post charts and discuss early thoughts on Winter 2020/2021.

We - the team, decided that it is too early to fill up the model discussion thread with Winter posts just yet as we're only just in Autumn.

Please feel free to post general chit-chat on the subject as well as your thoughts and longer range charts.

Don't forget these threads:-

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94006-autumn-2020-moans-ramps-chat/
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/79367-enso-discussion/
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88772-stratosphere-and-polar-vortex-watch/

 

Keep it friendly and enjoy! 🙂

 

Edited by Mapantz
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Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

I vanish because I find spring and summer dull in weather terms. I wake up a bit when a thunderstorm may occur - but otherwise it gets warm, it gets dry and every year we get 2 or 3 hot spells now. It

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17 minutes ago, Don said:

My understanding is it’s the rate of snow cover advancement through October which can have a bearing on winter?  2012 has a big increase during autumn, following the record breaking low sea ice.

I think Siberia had some good years regarding snow cover recently and it didn't help our winter at all.

snowcover-nhland-201910.gif

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25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It's all a bit theoretical and still unproven. One thing I look for is the classic aleutian low, euro high combination that can be a signal for a wave 2 pinch on the vortex. Whether snow cover advancing swiftly westwards is a precursor to a Euro high may be possible to argue....but of course that particular setup in October/November is too early to have a realistic impact on the heart of winter given vortex spin up in November. I'm not a convert of the snow cover index (yet) - though in general terms it seems good to me to have the siberian high strengthened as much as possible by extensive snow cover so that western europe can get a cold easterly feed and cool down. Ultimately more snow over Russia has to be better than less.....

To be honest out of all the LR winter forecasting tools there is, in my opinion the strongest is the PDO area in the NE pacific, a warm pool of water there has been the one constant with the long run of non-blocked winters we have had, whether the nina is a pre-cursor to the cold pdo phase i don't know, also perhaps the Atlantic, the last thing you want is a huge cold pool of water right the way from Greenland down the Eastern seaboard.

 

 

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No silly stories in the papers (Express) or musings from Joe Bastardi about the impending coldest winter in 30 years or 'snowmaggedon' to come as of yet which usually occurs sometime in September. Not sure whether there was any garbage journalism last Autumn about the 2019/20?

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Probably a few spells of snow showers and a few keen frosts up until mid December when it will then become unseasonly mild [or normally mild these days] and remain so for the rest of the winter with plenty of double figure temps.Possibly a cold snap towards the end of February  then back to cold come March.

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Aren't the SSTs around the UK very warm for September?  This so not a good sign for those who are after a cold winter. A mild winter like 2006/7 springs to mind, following on with some flooding issues come 2021

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Hi peeps,

hope everyone is well. Regarding this winter as we are just past mid September I think it is still far to early o make any reasonable prediction of what this winter holds. We have still got more than 5 weeks yet before even the clocks change. There is still a lot that can happen in the atmosphere between now and then to give us some kind of hint of the coming winter. It's far too early yet to event try and predict anything. Let's see how things evolve over autumn. The slightest good sign is that we are already beginning to see northerly and Easterly incursions as we have seen to end this week and some kind of northerly predicted for late next week and even high pressure to the north of us, who knows this may be a good start.Still can't jump the line and even make any judgment yet. Fingers crossed let the rollercoaster ride start.

 

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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I’ve predicted already that this autumn and early winter season will be milder and different to 2019/20. We will have predominantly mild or very mild days during October, with only a handful of cold days, but most of the month will be damp and cloudy. Nights will be quite mild also.

November will be quite mild, again with a handful of cold sunny days, but then mild theme will continue.

December will start off chilly, but the mild conditions will prevail, and I see this remaining the case until Christmas Day. 
 

After this stage however, temps will drop, and a cold dry sunny theme will set in. This will lead to a dry cold January, with possibly a few days of cold or very cold snowy periods. February will be a mix, but mostly cold and dry with long dull conditions. 
 

That’s my prediction for winter 2020/21.

No white Christmas this year, apart from higher ground and parts of Scotland.

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I wonder what initials or word will it be for winter 2020-21? We've had IOD last winter, OPI, torpedo etc in past winters.

I rarely look at the model discussion thread these days and unfortunately it is the worst place to be when a potential cold spell starts to wobble or go belly up in the models.

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19 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder what initials or word will it be for winter 2020-21? We've had IOD last winter, OPI, torpedo etc in past winters.

I rarely look at the model discussion thread these days and unfortunately it is the worst place to be when a potential cold spell starts to wobble or go belly up in the models.

read that wrong for a second, thought it said IDO, member not posted for ages

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18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

read that wrong for a second, thought it said IDO, member not posted for ages

Almost put IDO by mistake, but that is another thing that gets me about winter, why do certain members seem to vanish over the spring and summer? Weather is all year and the member you mentioned to use as an example has been online as recent as yesterday but no posts since March. 

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17 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

No silly stories in the papers (Express) or musings from Joe Bastardi about the impending coldest winter in 30 years or 'snowmaggedon' to come as of yet which usually occurs sometime in September. Not sure whether there was any garbage journalism last Autumn about the 2019/20?

Last thing I read from joe B re the upcoming winter looked like he was struggling big time on trying to make a silk purse from a sows ear ....

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1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

When a shortwave can scupper any potential cold spell I've learnt to ignore anything long range. You may as well toss a coin when looking beyond a week.

Morning all 😊

I totally agree with you Radiating Dentrite as per my post yesterday, I emphasised it was far too early to make any kind of prediction for the coming winter. If you think about it in reality even a weeks forcast ahead can change and we have seen that many of times.

i suppose at this stage we can only speculate and us here now being past the Solar Minumum etc maybe we will now at last get a break from our last few mild winters ( except 2018 when we had the beast from the east). So many times I have heard that the mild and cold winters on our shores have run in cycles, so could this winter finally start a new cycle who knows.

As I mentioned yesterday we have still just got over 5 weeks till the clocks change. I think from now till well into November we just need to see how the weather blocks play our. There's a lot of conspiracy that if Northerly and Easterly incursions start happening a lot the maybe that is telling us something about how the general setup may continue as we progress into winter but this is just a SPECULATIVE theory ( we know many of times we have seen cold or very cold Novrmbers giving no us hope then the rest of winter has stayed mild).

so it's best to at this stage to just sit back and see how things unfold and watch how all the other factors that make up our weather play a part. I know later today Gavs weather will be releasing the seasonal update on the models, but it's best not to get dishearten if there's nothing showing for us cold llovers to get excited about. Again experience tells us that even these long term models cannot sometimes predict what our weather will throw at us.I do recall one of the recent years all the models were going for a cold winter with snow but the true winter was not anything like it. 

Unfortunately weather is something that we will always have a battle in predicting. Time to sit back and fingers crossed for us coldies we live in that hope always.

wish you all a lovely Sunday

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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The model thread is less bad than the regional threads in the run up to a snow chance. 

I once had the nerve to pop into the south east regional where they were collectively ejaculating to a front approaching the next day or so and pointed out to people who turn up twice a year in detail why this particular event would not produce anything more than sleet south of about Birmingham and it stands out for the sheer number of attempted insults i then received. Needless to say that the following evening i was enjoying my snow up here while they were whining about the fact that they trusted the GFS over mesoscale models as rain poured steadily.

The model thread is mostly sense however there are people who have a habit of telling people what they want to hear or asserting a solution that is just too much of a stretch from situation x in more than one in one hundred winters (i.e. models will amplify x and so actually y will result when it's obvious that the reality will be moderate amplification and no easterly flow north of Kent).  

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31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I once had the nerve to pop into the south east regional where they were collectively ejaculating to a front approaching the next day or so and pointed out to people who turn up twice a year in detail why this particular event would not produce anything more than sleet south of about Birmingham and it stands out for the sheer number of attempted insults i then received.

Yes you daren't say such a thing you must conform when there is a possible chance of a cold spell and snow, the MAD thread is just as bad as regional one's as I have experienced back in 2018/19 - I dared to say the ECM at day 9/10 looked to be bringing mild conditions in on consecutive runs (late January) when for weeks many were hooked on the MetO 30 day forecast and I believe the Euro monthlies? of becoming cold with the chance of the white stuff/blocking to the north/north east. The models had struggled in general beyond day 6/7 and a large percentage of posters just turned a blind eye to the ECM FI...needless to say I was met by vitriol, and it did turn mild by the end of the 1st week of February..

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Regarding winter itself i have two analogue packages at the moment but they are largely dependent on the strength of the Nina during the Jan-March period (there's not much difference from Oct-Dec between weak or strong). If weak then the winters of 1955 and 2006 are strong analogues for me, if moderate to strong then 1974 and 2011 are strong analogues for me (2008 is also fairly good). 

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Regarding winter I have done my own analysis of several factors and will list them below with the relevant winters too

SOLAR CYCLE

Early Odd Ascent      8 Winters    December               January                 February                Overall Winter
                                    Averages    3.79                         3.45                      4.36                        3.87
            Anomaly                             -0.69 Colder            -0.34 Colder         +0.25 Milder           -0.25 COLDER
Overall Averages                           Dec1836-Dec2019 Jan1837-Jan2020 Feb1837-Feb2020 Overall Winters Dec1837-Feb2020
                                                        4.48                         3.79                      4.11                        4.12
Based on Winters of 1844/45, 1867/68, 1890/91, 1914/15, 1934/35, 1954/55, 1976/77 and 1997/98

QBO

Assuming we come out with an average WQBO for autumn 2020

Weak W +2.00 to +5.99
Av CET        4.89                  4.15                  4.21                  4.42
                    1953 to 2019    1954 to 2020    1954 to 2020    1953 to 2020
Month          DEC    Anom    JAN    Anom      FEB    Anom    OVERALL    Anom    -0.74 COLDER
OVERALL    3.68    -1.21     3.93    -0.22      3.43    -0.78      3.68             -0.74
Based on Autumns of 1973, 1978, 1992, 1995
For Winters 1973/74, 1978/79, 1992/93 and 1995/96

ENSO

WEAK LANINA OVERALL STATS                   DEC       JAN       FEB       OVERALL
ENSO                                   1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11       4.18       4.37
OND Av NDJ Av DJF Av JFM Av FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
-0.79      -0.80     -0.69     -0.54     -0.40             5.49       3.72       3.60       4.27
                                      1949-2020 Anomaly    +0.66     -0.39      -0.58      -0.10    -0.10 COLDER
Based on winters of 1954/55, 1964/65, 1971/72, 1974/75, 1983/84,
1984/85, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2016/17 and 2017/18

NORTH ATLANTIC SSTA

Assuming N Atlantic is still generally warm at the end of autumn

Warm N Atlantic at end of November    7 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20    DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                      5.12    4.53    4.71    4.79
                                       Overall    5.24    5.27    4.96    5.16        +0.37 MILDER
                                     Anomaly   +0.12  +0.74  +0.25  +0.37
Based on winters of 1989/90, 1990/91, 1998/99, 2007/08, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2017/18

ATLANTIC ENSO

Assuming we can keep the Atlantic equivalent of a La Nina going till the end of autumn

Atlantic La Nina at end of November        8 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20      DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                        5.12     4.53   4.71    4.79
                                         Overall    5.14     3.38   4.89    4.47        -0.32 COLDER
                                       Anomaly   +0.02   -1.15  +0.18  -0.32
Based on winters of 1984/85, 1986/87, 1988/89, 1991/92, 1996/97, 2000/01, 2001/02, 2014/15

NORTH PACIFIC SSTA

Warm N Pacific at end of November        7 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20    DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                      5.12     4.53   4.71    4.79
                                       Overall    6.46     4.99   5.67    5.70        +0.91 MILDER
                                   Anomaly    +1.34    +0.46 +0.96  +0.91
Based on winters of 1986/87, 1989/90, 2004/05, 2013/14, 2015/16, 2018/19, 2019/20

INDIAN OCEAN SSTA

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole at end of November        6 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20    DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                      5.12     4.53   4.71    4.79
                                       Overall    3.93     3.78   3.58    3.77        -1.02 COLDER
                                   Anomaly    -1.19     -0.75  -1.13   -1.02
Based on winters of 1984/85, 1985/86, 1995/96, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2010/11

NORWEGIAN SEA SSTA

Assuming we end up with a warm Norwegian sea again

Warm Norwegian Sea at end of November            8 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20    DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                      5.12     4.53   4.71    4.79
                                       Overall    5.09    3.66    4.05    4.27        -0.52 COLDER
                                     Anomaly   -0.03   -0.87   -0.66   -0.52
Based on winters of 2018/2019,2017/2018,2016/2017,2009/2010,2003/2004,1990/1991,1987/1988,1984/1985

I haven't included Siberian snow cover or hurricane activity yet as we don't know where either of these will be headed yet

The factors I have managed to analyse so far are in order of mildest to coldest:

1     Warm N Pacific at end of November                +0.91C Milder than average winter

2     Warm N Atlantic at end of November              +0.37C Milder than average winter

3     Weak La Nina                                                     -0.10C Colder than average winter

4     Early Odd Ascending Solar Cycle                   -0.25C Colder than average winter

5     Atlantic La Nina at end of November               -0.32C Colder than average winter

6     Warm Norwegian Sea at end of November     -0.52C Colder than average winter

7     Weak WQBO in autumn preceding winter      -0.74C Colder than average winter

8     Negative IOD in November                               -1.02C Colder than average winter

ADDING THESE ANOMALIES TOGETHER WE COME OUT AT A COMBINED ANOMALY OF

-1.67 COLDER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS

Looking good so far for a colder winter but if the warm N Pacific can do one and the N Atlantic can form a tripole then we really will be in business

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@SqueakheartLW Looking at some of your factors in November it looks more like moderate La Nina and neutral IOD, things of course may change, but looking at ONI for OND it will probably bottom @ - 1.2 ish, I would personally go with moderate La Nina analogs on the strong end of moderate, although I wish it would be weaker but if we go anything close to -1.4 there are crap recent winters like 2007/08 or 1999/00. From September model summary it looks like the ones which went with weaker Nina had more blocked anomalies and the ones like UKMO for example had a strong Nina and very zonal look. Fingers crossed for ONI not too much below -1.2

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20 hours ago, jules216 said:

@SqueakheartLW Looking at some of your factors in November it looks more like moderate La Nina and neutral IOD, things of course may change, but looking at ONI for OND it will probably bottom @ - 1.2 ish, I would personally go with moderate La Nina analogs on the strong end of moderate, although I wish it would be weaker but if we go anything close to -1.4 there are crap recent winters like 2007/08 or 1999/00. From September model summary it looks like the ones which went with weaker Nina had more blocked anomalies and the ones like UKMO for example had a strong Nina and very zonal look. Fingers crossed for ONI not too much below -1.2

A moderate La Nina on my analysis came away with a colder anomaly than did the weak La Nina option so all is not lost with a moderate La Nina

WEAK LANINA OVERALL STATS                   DEC       JAN       FEB       OVERALL
ENSO                                   1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11       4.18       4.37
OND Av NDJ Av DJF Av JFM Av FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
-0.79      -0.80     -0.69     -0.54     -0.40             5.49       3.72       3.60       4.27
                                      1949-2020 Anomaly    +0.66     -0.39      -0.58      -0.10    -0.10 COLDER
Based on winters of 1954/55, 1964/65, 1971/72, 1974/75, 1983/84,
1984/85, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2016/17 and 2017/18

MODERATE LANINA OVERALL STATS         DEC       JAN       FEB       OVERALL
ENSO                                   1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11      4.18        4.37
OND Av NDJ Av DJF Av JFM Av FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
-1.18      -1.15     -1.14     -0.98    -0.80             4.76        4.40      3.18         4.11
                                     1949-2020 Anomaly    -0.07       +0.29    -1.00        -0.26    -0.26 COLDER
Based on winters of 1949/50, 1955/56, 1970/71, 1995/96 and 2011/12

However with no -IOD in November as you say we will probably have then the odds of cold get worse

Warm Indian Ocean at end of November            11 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20    DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                      5.12     4.53   4.71    4.79
                                       Overall    5.67     5.00   4.69    5.12        +0.33 MILDER
                                   Anomaly    +0.55    +0.47 -0.02  +0.33
Based on winters of 1989/90, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05, 2006/07, 2009/10, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16

Average Indian Ocean at end of November        10 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20    DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                      5.12     4.53   4.71    4.79
                                       Overall    4.84     4.72   4.56    4.71        -0.08 COLDER
                                    Anomaly    -0.28    +0.19 -0.15   -0.08
Based on winters of 1988/89, 1990/91, 1992/93, 2000/01, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2016/17, 2017/18

Cold Indian Ocean at end of November              3 Winters
CET's from 1984/85 to 2019/20    DEC    JAN    FEB    OVERALL
                                                      5.12     4.53   4.71    4.79
                                      Overall    4.37      3.83   5.10   4.43        -0.36 COLDER
                                   Anomaly    -0.75     -0.70  +0.39  -0.36
Based on winters of 1991/92, 1993/94, 1996/97

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Some great analysis from SqueakheartLW...would some of these figures particularly the La Nina's be skewed by winters i.e pre mid-1990's as a number are based 40/50 years ago and are the CET's based on what series?

Global Warming has changed many facets / teleconnections that we used to rely on.

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just been looking at the September ECM Metea France and DWD Long range models on gabs weather vids and I must say Metea France looks rather interesting for winter 20 21 how ever ECM looks rather mild for the coming winter DWD again not too bad only September though so we have a long way to go yet

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My prediction for the winter, based on nothing but guesswork.

Avg max/min, rainfall, sun hours

December: 9c/3c, 60mm, 50 hrs

January: 8c/3c, 70mm, 40 hrs

February: 11c/3c, 20mm, 100 hrs

A standard Dec/Jan, with a mild, dry and sunny February.

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11 minutes ago, B87 said:

My prediction for the winter, based on nothing but guesswork.

Avg max/min, rainfall, sun hours

December: 9c/3c, 60mm, 50 hrs

January: 8c/3c, 70mm, 40 hrs

February: 11c/3c, 20mm, 100 hrs

A standard Dec/Jan, with a mild, dry and sunny February.

100 hours in February is still only an average of 3.57 hours of sunshine a day when you get an average of 10 hours of daylight in February so only 1/3 of the month would have sunshine or 100 out of approx 300 hours

Looking very gloomy for January at just 40 hours of a possible average 258 hours

December is looking less gloomy than January on your guess with 50 out of a possible average 245 hours

Your guess looks quite similar to winter 2018/19 with the cloudy mild and quite dry weather in December with January as the coolest month before that warmer and sunnier February

My dream winter would consist of:

December 1890 with CET of -0.8C (-5.4C below 81-10 average)

January 1795 with CET of -3.1C (-7.5C below 81-10 average)

February 1947 with CET of -1.9C (-6.3C below 81-10 average)

Overall winter with CET of -1.83C (-6.29C below 81-10 average)

My worst ever winter would be:

December 2015 with CET of 9.7C (+5.1C above 81-10 average)

January 1916 with CET of 7.5C (+3.1C above 81-10 average)

February 1779 with CET of 7.9C (+3.5C above 81-10 average)

Overall winter with CET of 8.36C (+3.9C above 81-10 average)

A more realistic guess based on my analysis of different factors would be for the CET at least

December 2020 with CET of 3.6C (-1.0C below 81-10 average)

January 2021 with CET of 1.9C (-2.5C below 81-10 average)

February 2021 with CET of 2.9C (-1.5C below 81-10 average)

Overall winter 2020/21 CET of 2.8C (-1.67C below 81-10 average)

My guess is based on the analysis of my factors as well as the law of averages in the fact we must be due a colder than average winter after the generally mild fest of winters since 2013/14

Edited by SqueakheartLW
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