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October 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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have  you just been shopping?

EWP update _ 154 mm to 30th, est 8-10 mm for 31st, will have the provisional value tomorrow, expect mid 160s. Steve Murr had CET right on, will be around 3rd or 4th in EWP (150 mm), for one of tw

Interesting how similiar the last 4 months have been to those in 2004. The summer was similar to that in 2004. September 2004 was one degree warmer than September 2020 but the rainfalls are similiar.

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10 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

CET should be 10.4-10.6C after adjustments so like September just a little under the 1981-2010 average.

10.6C would be nice 😉. Shame about the rainfall prediction....

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

CET should be 10.4-10.6C after adjustments so like September just a little under the 1981-2010 average.

somewhere between 10.4-10.6 would really suit me.

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3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

CET should be 10.4-10.6C after adjustments so like September just a little under the 1981-2010 average.

Oh well, 10.9 was within social distancing I guess!

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The last three days maybe warm enough to a make a provide a bump up.

Playing with the forecast figures takes Sheffield back to 9.9C -0.3 below average so basically average. Considering we -2C below normal at the middle of the month it's a pity it didn't continue to cool.  The first seven days were 11C, then 9.3C, 9.8C and so far 8.9C so it has cooled but not enough.

then

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EWP update _ 131 mm to 24th, about 4-5 mm average yesterday, GFS only has 15 mm on average for rest of month with a few areas much higher, probably more potential to err on high side than low, so landing zone about 145-160 at this stage. This would tweak the provisional scoring slightly but mostly by dropping the two highest forecasts down a bit to the benefit of those who were shown scoring 7-9 (add 0.38 if you're in that zone). 

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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP update _ 131 mm to 24th, about 4-5 mm average yesterday, GFS only has 15 mm on average for rest of month with a few areas much higher, probably more potential to err on high side than low, so landing zone about 145-160 at this stage. This would tweak the provisional scoring slightly but mostly by dropping the two highest forecasts down a bit to the benefit of those who were shown scoring 7-9 (add 0.38 if you're in that zone). 

Lakeland fells are forecast about 145-160 mms in the days ahead. Going to end up a very wet October here.

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Sunny Sheffield at 9.8C -1.1C below normal, Rainfall now at 91.4mm 110.4% of the monthly average.

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10.6c to the 26th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c on the 7th
Current low this month 10.5c on the 18th & 19th

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A very mild end will prevent the month from ending up below average I feel, or may be not if we see downward corrections, perhaps a final finish 10.8 or 10.9 degrees.

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EWP likely sitting at 143 mm or so, 137 to 26th then average about 6 mm on 27th. Still looking at same scenario of pockets of very heavy rainfalls in western regions and not much further east, possible average for grid being 15 mm to reach 158 mm by end of play. 

I have assumed that the EWP daily numbers run 00z to 00z but wonder if maybe they go 06z to 06z instead, which would make a difference with heavy rain likely to move in Saturday night. 

Anyway, the slightly lower projection changes almost nothing on the provisional scoring other than to drop the two forecasts of 200-210 mm down slightly.

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10.6c to the 27th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c on the 7th
Current low this month 10.5c on the 18th & 19th

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Sunny Sheffield managed to squeeze another drop now 9.7C -1.1C below normal. Won't managed another drop tomorrow though. Rainfall 94.1mm 113.6% of the monthly average.

Touch and go whether we hit 100mm or not all depends on where the fronts actually end up lying.

Using the latest local forecast values puts us back at 9.9C once again so close to average.

Edited by The PIT
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It will be interesting to see the regional variation in rainfall between the first and second halves of the month.  Here in the west, the rainfall was fairly normal for the time of year at the start of the month but places further east and south seemed to get much more of a soaking.  After the drier mid-month spell, this last week has turned very wet here and the models look to dump the heavier rainfall in the next few days over Wales and the NW too.  A very wet month for many regions but delivered from two distinct spells with the impact in different areas.

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10.6c to the 28th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c on the 7th
Current low this month 10.5c on the 18th & 19th

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Sunny Sheffield still at 9.7C -1.0C below average. Rainfall up to 94.8mm 114.5% of average.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 9.7C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall up 99.5mm 120.2% of the monthly average

Looking like 9.8C will be our landing zone -0.4C below average.

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EWP still trending towards about 170 mm, it had reached 145 mm by end of 28th, yesterday's grid average was at least 10, despite 88.2 at Capel Curig, and values near zero in the west Midlands. Figure on at least 15-20 from Saturday's complex storms. 

Some rather interesting reading in the forecasts concerning end of month storminess. 

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10.6c to the 29th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c on the 7th
Current low this month 10.5c on the 18th & 19th

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EWP update -- 150 mm to 29th and about 5 mm on 30th, probably about 10 mm to be added today. Would finish close to my scoring estimate of 167 mm.

CET hasn't been gaining much despite rather mild spell, suspect though the downward adjustment may be small too, would expect final value around 10.6. Today will be quite mild but we had that record breaker in 2014 that I don't think will fall, today might beat values of 30th or 1st Nov however. 

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A cooler night has actually stopped a rise in the average here.

Sunny Sheffield still at 9.7C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall limping over the 100mm mark at 101.5mm 122.6% of the average rainfall.

If the local forecast is right no change for today either.

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10.6c to the 30th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c on the 7th
Current low this month 10.5c on the 18th & 19th

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On 01/10/2020 at 03:31, Shillitocettwo said:

202 minutes late sorry (but I don't remember to play every month anyway......)

 

    I personally think October 2020 is going to be absolutely horrific and end of the world like at times. I think that sometime in mid to late October, say the 19th, we are in for a vile Atlantic storm which will rival and actually surpass the Great Storm of October 1987 which will rip up trees and cause unwanted devastation  which just adds to the increasing misery wrought by Covid.

     There will be nothing settled about this month and the overall temperature will be fairly academic at a mild 11.8.C but within that extremes will exist with a predominant westerly but every wind direction and air mass source will get represented, at times snow on the mountains, with at least one very short lived Spanish plume sending warmth info the high 20.Cs with a ridiculously mild night following breaking date if not overall month records.

 

   Needless to say very wet, although severe gales will be that much of a feature that the rain that does fall will often just get blown away by evaporation in the quieter interludes! So less flooding than this total suggests which us one positive....156mm.

Well October is finished, so you’re 156mm wasn’t a bad prediction but the the rest was just a weeeeee little over the top lol!.....like a fellow n/w member mentioned in a fashion * you just take up directing disaster movies * can’t wait for your prediction/script for November 🥴

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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In fairness to that, if Aiden and Zeta had managed a more successful partnership, who knows what kind of storm might have evolved today? It was reportedly rather bad in Donegal for a while. And the 156 will likely be either best or second closest, albeit late penalty would deny high score unless we end up below 160 as then the second closest forecast would be Steve Murr at 150, also with a late penalty. Daniel* at 170 and Mr Moreau at 174 are in the running and had no late penalties. I am cheering for 163.1 to 171.9 because then little or no work needed on my excel file (average error portion would need tweaking). 

Will keep reporting the totals until we have the provisional on Monday 2nd, then will update the existing scoring, and expand it to include all active players on the annual totals, maybe just edit that previous post out of existence and move the information to current date. 

Heading over to make up the table of entries for November now, look for that at the very stroke of midnight.   

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