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October 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can't see much of a rise in coming days, indeed probably a stall and slight fall, thanks to polar air and much cooler nights with maxima a bit below as well.

Early call from me as I do, somewhere in the 10s likely finish.

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have  you just been shopping?

EWP update _ 154 mm to 30th, est 8-10 mm for 31st, will have the provisional value tomorrow, expect mid 160s. Steve Murr had CET right on, will be around 3rd or 4th in EWP (150 mm), for one of tw

Interesting how similiar the last 4 months have been to those in 2004. The summer was similar to that in 2004. September 2004 was one degree warmer than September 2020 but the rainfalls are similiar.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 11.1C -1.9C below normal. Rainfall 59.7mm 72.1% of the monthly average

A small drop in the coming days before levelling off again unless the forecast jumps to either warmer or much colder temperatures than shown in a few days time

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EWP has reached 80 mm (79 mm to 7th, at least 1 mm perhaps 2 from 8th), GFS estimates 45 mm more in next ten days, and then days 11-16 depict swirling low pressure areas capable of adding 30-40 mm more. That would all add up to 155-165 mm by 25th. Top ten wet October perhaps? 

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11.5c to the 9th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c to the 7th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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Sunny Sheffield at 10.9C -2C below average. Rainfall 61.8mm 74.6% of the monthly average.

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EWP tracker ... 81 mm to 8th, est 3 mm 9th, GFS says roughly 40 mm next ten days, then charts for days 11-16 give potential for 20-30 mm.

Should be noted that most of the 40 mm in next ten days comes around days 8-10, so considerable uncertainty can be attached to that. 

These actuals and forecasts add up to 144-154 mm by 26th, a fairly good chance of finding 2020 in that top ten list supplied by wx-history earlier. 

LG with his nearly inevitable 200 mm stands a chance of taking a monthly title at this rate.  (I Rem Atl 252 actually went higher this month at 210 mm).

If we do end up above 120 mm, contest leaders will be losing some of their edge over the field, most of them are in the bottom third of the forecasts. Mulzy and mb018538 would move up into a real challenge position with just one month left in the contest year. 

I didn't want to bump the Sept thread out of position with this minor announcement but all the annual scoring is now available along with average EWP errors and ranks for those, in the post that previously had only the top half of the annual scores in it (near the end of the Sept thread). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Turning into an interesting October synoptic wise, opposite to the traditional zonal westerly onslaught.. could be looking at an appreciably cooler than normal October.

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Sunny Sheffield at 10.8C -2.0C below normal. Rainfall up to 62.8mm 75.8% of the monthly rainfall.

 

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11.3c to the 10th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c to the 7th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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11.2c to the 11th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c to the 7th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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EWP had reached 86 mm by 10th, probably still there after 11th mostly dry, then 25-30 mm average for grid in next ten days (GFS), looks quite wet for days 11 to 16 (30-50 mm potential there, 10-30 mm beyond that to 31st?) ... adding all that up brings the totals to the range of 156-196 mm, into the top ten quite possible, near-record becoming a real possibility (and October has the wettest month of all). Just pro-rated, by 08z yesterday we were one-third of the way to the end of October and 3x86 = 258, so these projections are below the pace established so far. 

Weather-history provided the top ten Octobers, but this is the top 30 of any months all time:

1. Oct 1903 __ 218.1 ______ 16. Dec 1915__184.9

2. Nov 1852 __202.5 ______ 17. Jan 2014__184.6

3. Nov 1770 __200.8 ______ 18. Dec 1934__183.5

4. Nov 1940 __196.5 ______ 19. July 1828__182.6

5. Nov 1929 __195.9 ______ 20. Nov 2000__182.1

6. Dec 1876 __193.9 ______ 21. Nov 1951__180.4

7. Aug 1912 __192.9 ______ 22. Oct 1987__180.2

t8. Aug 1834__192.1 ______ 23. Dec 1929__179.0

t8. Nov 2009__192.1 ______ 24. Nov 1970__178.6

10. Dec 1914__190.8 ______ 25. Mar 1947__177.5

11. Sep 1918__189.5 ______ 26. Jan 1948 __176.8

12. Oct 2000__188.0 ______ 27. Nov 2002__176.2

13. Sep 1799__186.8 ______ 28. Dec 2012__175.2

14. Dec 1868__185.6 ______ 29. Nov 1810__174.4

15. Sep 1797__185.4 ______ 30. Oct 1795__173.2

February is at a disadvantage getting onto this list with 28 (or 29) days, Feb 2020 had 169.5 which ranked 38th overall but the 31 days ending 1st March 2020 had 174.7, except one would also have to augment the various Novembers and Septembers on the list by one day for a full comparison. Only those since 1931 have daily data available. Worth noting that 17.4 mm fell on Oct 31 of 1940 so adding that to the 196.5 of Nov 1940 gives a total of 213.9. In that very wet month, 1st to 11th produced over half the total (112 mm by 11th). 

Oct-Nov 2000 were consecutive months making the list (12th and 20th), and from 27 Oct 2000 to 26 Nov 2000, 31 days managed a total of 222.8 mm. There is also a 206 mm 31-day interval ending 29th Nov 2009. 

 

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On 10/10/2020 at 22:42, damianslaw said:

Turning into an interesting October synoptic wise, opposite to the traditional zonal westerly onslaught.. could be looking at an appreciably cooler than normal October.

How is it interesting? We clearly see this month very differently. It has seemed very monotonous to me.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 10.5C -2.0C below normal. Rainfall up 63.6mm 76.8% of the monthly average.

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On 10/10/2020 at 22:42, damianslaw said:

Turning into an interesting October synoptic wise, opposite to the traditional zonal westerly onslaught.. could be looking at an appreciably cooler than normal October.

Funny how quickly things can change in a few days.....from next Monday onwards we're now looking at very mild weather taking over for 5-7 days at least. The colder than normal October may not happen after all!

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11.1c to the 11th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c to the 7th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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17 hours ago, Scorcher said:

How is it interesting? We clearly see this month very differently. It has seemed very monotonous to me.

The answer to your questions should be very obvious from the original post.

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It's been one of the most boring Octobers I can remember in my entire life. Consistent cold wet rubbish. Highs between 10 and 14. 2018 was a good October - had everything from warmth to very cold including snow.

Edited by Thundershine
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12 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Funny how quickly things can change in a few days.....from next Monday onwards we're now looking at very mild weather taking over for 5-7 days at least. The colder than normal October may not happen after all!

I think something similar in October 2009 with a cool first half followed by a very mild second half?

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