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October 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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10.7c to the 1st

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
2.2c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.7c to the 1st
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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have  you just been shopping?

EWP update _ 154 mm to 30th, est 8-10 mm for 31st, will have the provisional value tomorrow, expect mid 160s. Steve Murr had CET right on, will be around 3rd or 4th in EWP (150 mm), for one of tw

Interesting how similiar the last 4 months have been to those in 2004. The summer was similar to that in 2004. September 2004 was one degree warmer than September 2020 but the rainfalls are similiar.

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On 01/10/2020 at 03:31, Shillitocettwo said:

202 minutes late sorry (but I don't remember to play every month anyway......)

 

    I personally think October 2020 is going to be absolutely horrific and end of the world like at times. I think that sometime in mid to late October, say the 19th, we are in for a vile Atlantic storm which will rival and actually surpass the Great Storm of October 1987 which will rip up trees and cause unwanted devastation  which just adds to the increasing misery wrought by Covid.

     There will be nothing settled about this month and the overall temperature will be fairly academic at a mild 11.8.C but within that extremes will exist with a predominant westerly but every wind direction and air mass source will get represented, at times snow on the mountains, with at least one very short lived Spanish plume sending warmth info the high 20.Cs with a ridiculously mild night following breaking date if not overall month records.

 

   Needless to say very wet, although severe gales will be that much of a feature that the rain that does fall will often just get blown away by evaporation in the quieter interludes! So less flooding than this total suggests which us one positive....156mm.

Sounds like a movie! Personally I think this unsettled spell will blow out and it will end up quite boring!

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10.8c to the 2nd

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average
1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.8c to the 2nd
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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Posted (edited)

In most months the EWP has found its way to the tables by this time on the 5th, however, maybe there's just too much rain at the moment and the system has stalled out, the daily tracker is at least one day behind and maybe two, and there's no September final value to report. Maybe later today there will be. 

The October EWP was 7 mm for the first, but looking at maps for the past few days, must be well over 50 mm already, here again, it may take a few days to get a more precise number. 

(later edit _ have just realized today is Sunday 4th, it was in my head that today was Sunday 5th, so actually the EWP is not late appearing yet)

Edited by Roger J Smith
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3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

In most months the EWP has found its way to the tables by this time on the 5th, however, maybe there's just too much rain at the moment and the system has stalled out, the daily tracker is at least one day behind and maybe two, and there's no September final value to report. Maybe later today there will be. 

The October EWP was 7 mm for the first, but looking at maps for the past few days, must be well over 50 mm already, here again, it may take a few days to get a more precise number. 

Yes, the station nearest me has 94mm since Friday morning....

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On 03/10/2020 at 11:43, Summer Sun said:

10.8c to the 2nd

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average
1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.8c to the 2nd
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

11.1C to the 3rd.

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11.1c to the 3rd

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.1c to the 3rd
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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Since the outlook over the next ten days looks relatively cool (though minima may hold the average up early in the period) perhaps Roger can highlight any CET values to the 10th and 16th that we could be chasing in terms of 2007 onward. I doubt this third will be that notable (cool but minima making it unexceptional in terms of temperature) but pressure building later in the period might provide more notable suppression to the half way mark. 

2015 is an example of how it can go wrong (cool first half gave way to rampant zonal warmth from mid-October through to Christmas) but i would hope that we could challenge the likes of 07, 08, 10, 12, 15, 16, 18 and 19 given our start.  

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That 54 mm to end of 3rd is now probably around 60-62 mm as grid average for 4th appears to be a little under 10 mm, the southwest received higher amounts. Then the ten-day GFS eases off to totals of about 20 mm on average, once again the southwest may get considerably more than other regions. The maps for days 11 to 16 become rather wet again, a conservative 20 mm there, with extension of day 16 looking like 10-20 more would fall beyond the 21st. Adding all those amounts, we have a rough estimate of 120 mm. That should be taken as 80-160 including margins of error. 

The CET never looks all that warm (to me) with a slight northerly component often present, probably rather limited range but overall would likely average near 10 C and from the most recent estimate of 11.1 it would imply a slow decline through the realm of the 10s, which is where I was hoping to do most of my dating in younger days, but actually went a lot further afield. 

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11.2c to the 4th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.2c to the 4th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm estimates 10.8C to the 18th (CET largely seems to stay static). 

https://i.imgur.com/8BsNitr.png

ive already messed up then, cannot see the first 18 days and last 12 days both averaging the same in such a descending month.

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4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm estimates 10.8C to the 18th (CET largely seems to stay static). 

https://i.imgur.com/8BsNitr.png

Given the outlook I would expect further downward trend later in the week after a slight rise, with cold nights forecast, and a cold sourced high pressure, the sun is weakening now, becomes hard to achieve high maxima with high pressure overhead under a cold airmass from now on.

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11.4c to the 5th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.4c to the 5th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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Now back home so have access to my excel files, and since 1-10 Oct will probably not drop much, I only looked at first half stats (1-16), these are the lowest values in selected time periods:

2013-2019 ___11.1 2015, 2016 ______11.4 2019

2000-2019 ___ 9.9 2012 _ 10.5 2004 _ 10.6 2001

1950-1999 ___ 8.0 1974 __ 8.1 1952 __ 9.0 1980 (2012 was warmer than 4th to 6th coldest)

1772-1949 ___ 6.4 1888 __ 6.7 1817 __  7.6 1782 and 1849 (1974 was also beaten by four others, so is 9th coldest all-time)

The mark established in 2012 is actually quite ordinary as compared to the first half of the data, where every decade produced a lowest value below 9.1 until the 1940s. The warming of October historically seems stronger than most months. 

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Sunny Sheffield at 10.8C -1.5c Below normal. Rainfall 32.5mm 39,3% of the monthly average.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 10.8C -2.4C below normal. Rainfall 34.9mm 42.1% of the monthly average.

Yesterday should have been -2.5C below average doh. Yesterday the reason for no change was due to the rise in overnight temperatures which was cancelled out by a drop in the day time temperature.

Edited by The PIT
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11.6c to the 6th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.6c to the 6th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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EWP will soon be at normal October totals at this rate, 69 mm to 6th, about 12-15 mm average for grid on 7th, then 10 day GFS estimate at least 30 mm (there could be a slight overlap as part of the 7th to 06z could be in the GFS projections). Even if only 10 mm more fell after 17th, that would take us to 120-130 mm. Our consensus was above normal so this won't come as any big surprise to most. 

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11.7c to the 7th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.7c to the 7th
Current low this month 10.7c to the 1st

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Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 10.8C -2.3C below normal. Rainfall now at 53.2mm 64.3% of the monthly average.

A rise for tomorrow then a slow drop for the next five days by the looks of things.

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Can't see much of a rise in coming days, indeed probably a stall and slight fall, thanks to polar air and much cooler nights with maxima a bit below as well.

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