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October 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

 

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

 

13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001

13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005

13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006

12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995

12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921

12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011

12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2013, 2014

12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017

12.3 ... tied 14th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811)

12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 360 years

12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest)

11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

11.8 ... 

11.7 ... 1989, 1996

11.6 ... 2009

11.5 ... 

11.4 ... 

11.3 ... mean 2001-2019

11.2 ...

11.1 ... 1984

11.0 ... average for 1990-2019  ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015

10.9 ... mean 1991-2019 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016

10.8 ...

10.7 ... average for 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999

10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998, 2018

10.5 ... 1983, 2004

10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988

10.3 ... 2000, 2010

10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997

10.1 ... 1982, 2002

10.0 ... 2019

 9.9 ...

 9.8 ...

 9.7(3) ... mean for all 361 years 1659-2019 ... ... ... 1987, 2008, 2012

 9.6 ...

 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

 9.2 ... 2003

 8.6 ... 1981

 8.5 ... 1993

 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992

 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day)

__________________ _ _ _ 

Enter your CET forecast by Wednesday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties during the first three days of October.

========================================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

 

218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2019... also wettest month of any name

188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2019 (second wettest all Octobers).

180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October

148.4 mm __ 2019 _ t24 wettest (with 1846)

104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

101.0 mm __ mean for 1990-2019

 95.8 mm __ mean for all 254 Octobers 1766 to 2019

 46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2019 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) (27th, 29th driest Octobers)

 17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm) (4th and 5th driest Octobers)

__8.8 mm __ 1781 _ driest 1766-2019 ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978

note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1990-2019, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period.

The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. 

__________________________ _ _ _ _________________________________________________________

Recent Oct EWP ... 148.4 mm _ 2019 ... 75.8 mm _ 2018 ... 51.5 mm _ 2017 ... 46.0 mm _ 2016 ... 68.4 mm _ 2015,

... ... ... ... 118.3 mm __ 2014, 157.6 mm __ 2013 ... 127.7 mm __ 2012 ... 68.4 mm __ 2011 ... 84.2 mm __ 2010.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. 

Good luck ! ! 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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have  you just been shopping?

EWP update _ 154 mm to 30th, est 8-10 mm for 31st, will have the provisional value tomorrow, expect mid 160s. Steve Murr had CET right on, will be around 3rd or 4th in EWP (150 mm), for one of tw

Interesting how similiar the last 4 months have been to those in 2004. The summer was similar to that in 2004. September 2004 was one degree warmer than September 2020 but the rainfalls are similiar.

Posted Images

Probably quite warm and dry overall, with a chance of a chillier spell possibly towards the end of the month.

Going to go for 11*C please and 62mm rainfall. Cheers

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Quite mild, after a cold start. I expect we will see a few days in the 19-21c bracket, in the first half, mixed with colder blustery days. A damp and mild second half with long periods of cloud and rain, and temps in the mid teens, around 13-15c. Nights will be mild, and Halloween will be very mild.

The mild and damp weather will continue well into November, with only a few days of cold frosty weather. 

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Quite warm and wet but not exceptionally so.  Given the active hurricane season we will get another ophelia style event again mid month but this time it will also drag up a very late season Spanish plume with the severest october thunderstorms on record to central/eastern areas while pummeling the far west with 100mph gusts.

A few anticyclonic periods too

Given this, my guess is 12.0C and 113mm.

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A strong signal from both my analogue and pattern matching set for ridging close to the UK to be dominant and a close CET range too. 

I shall go for 11.0C, 45mm. 

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15.5C.  :oldsad:  Last sub 6C October in 1740.  Last sub 7C October in 1896.  Last sub 8C October in 1992.  Last sub 9C October in 1993.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage

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