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Although i don't usually like making threads for FISH storms this one is forecast to move west for a few days first so will be with us for potentially the next ten days. It should also get quite strong and be a good ACE producer.

In terms of track the movement is generally WNW with a turn towards the north west in a few days however the remains of Sally and Paullete either side then start trying to tug Teddy (Euro actually tries to absorb ex Sally's upper low as it goes extra-tropical).

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NHC bring this to major status by day 5 (shear might be more of an issue afterwards) however the SHIPS model gives a 53% chance that Teddy is 100KT in 72 hours (10.2 times the mean). 

Edited by Jo Farrow
now hurricane
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Teddy is now a strong Tropical Storm and likely to become a Hurricane tomorrow. The NHC now bring Teddy to category 3 strength by day 3 and the SHIPS model shows a solid environment bar dry air.

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Bermuda was hit by Hurricane Paulette on Monday, as strong Cat1  which went right over the island. Hurricane Teddy heading their way (although there is a lot of space round abuot) then possibly closer to eastern Canada, Nova Scotia, NFLD 

 

sept16teddy.png

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Teddy has strengthened and is now a 100mph hurricane forecast to reach 130mph intensity. Track has shifted west towards Bermuda in the long run.

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Teddy weakened a little overnight after remaining in a broadly steady state as it completed some strange structural change (EWC possibly) but it has now popped an eye for the first time in a while and Dvorak Numbers are increasing (raw T at 7.5, adjusted at 4.9) so it likely gets its increase back to 100mph at the 11am or 2pm advisories. Recon has 3 flights to sample the atmosphere around Teddy today and one proper recon flight at 6pm.

Track is still bending further west into Canada.

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It looks like the chances for a US landfall have increased. Maybe that developing high pressure cell in a few days time, can push teddy a bit further west.

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Teddy forecast to retain category 2-3 status through the next five days. 

INIT 17/1500Z 19.3N 53.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

12H 18/0000Z 20.4N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

24H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

36H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

48H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

60H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

96H 21/1200Z 32.4N 63.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

120H 22/1200Z 38.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

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What a monster of a cane.

140mph, 945mb.

Category 4!

Teddy is forecast to approach Bermuda on Sunday night at category 3 strength.

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Teddy has weakened to 125mph as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle.

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