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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Although i don't usually like making threads for FISH storms this one is forecast to move west for a few days first so will be with us for potentially the next ten days. It should also get quite strong and be a good ACE producer.

In terms of track the movement is generally WNW with a turn towards the north west in a few days however the remains of Sally and Paullete either side then start trying to tug Teddy (Euro actually tries to absorb ex Sally's upper low as it goes extra-tropical).

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NHC bring this to major status by day 5 (shear might be more of an issue afterwards) however the SHIPS model gives a 53% chance that Teddy is 100KT in 72 hours (10.2 times the mean). 

Edited by Jo Farrow
now hurricane
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Teddy is now a strong Tropical Storm and likely to become a Hurricane tomorrow. The NHC now bring Teddy to category 3 strength by day 3 and the SHIPS model shows a solid environment bar dry air.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Bermuda was hit by Hurricane Paulette on Monday, as strong Cat1  which went right over the island. Hurricane Teddy heading their way (although there is a lot of space round abuot) then possibly closer to eastern Canada, Nova Scotia, NFLD 

 

sept16teddy.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Teddy has strengthened and is now a 100mph hurricane forecast to reach 130mph intensity. Track has shifted west towards Bermuda in the long run.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Teddy weakened a little overnight after remaining in a broadly steady state as it completed some strange structural change (EWC possibly) but it has now popped an eye for the first time in a while and Dvorak Numbers are increasing (raw T at 7.5, adjusted at 4.9) so it likely gets its increase back to 100mph at the 11am or 2pm advisories. Recon has 3 flights to sample the atmosphere around Teddy today and one proper recon flight at 6pm.

Track is still bending further west into Canada.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

It looks like the chances for a US landfall have increased. Maybe that developing high pressure cell in a few days time, can push teddy a bit further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Teddy forecast to retain category 2-3 status through the next five days. 

INIT 17/1500Z 19.3N 53.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

12H 18/0000Z 20.4N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

24H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

36H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

48H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

60H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

96H 21/1200Z 32.4N 63.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

120H 22/1200Z 38.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Recon is reporting now. .

949mb, 113KT (130mph) SMFR. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

What a monster of a cane.

140mph, 945mb.

Category 4!

Teddy is forecast to approach Bermuda on Sunday night at category 3 strength.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Teddy has weakened to 125mph as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Soon to move under the CHC, the Canadian Hurricane Centre- set up in 1987 after Hurricane Gloria in '85 moved from the US to Canada with all sorts of mixed messages and confusion in the media. Like the UKMO take over land warnings from NHC, the CHC have warnings for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. https://www.weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html 

and on twitter @ECCC_CHC   @ECCCWeatherNS 

 

sept22nhcmap.png

sept22teddyCHC.png

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
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