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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Still checking the CFS runs for December, no point looking at 1 run, here’s the last 5 Z500 anomalies:

304AE7D3-29F9-41AF-9B8E-18A25AAA3AEE.thumb.png.3f526d9ff38f83cbc7a7406c47701603.png7A44CAD0-192D-4782-91AF-C00378566356.thumb.png.6443fc0b83031cdc59072387429912bb.png558009C6-34FA-45D4-80DB-D4DC5C1D2855.thumb.png.0a5ef1451e5262df11a1c1fd0b392da6.png988EE516-7F54-4D08-BD57-70B3627C32FE.thumb.png.48c324e709863fa55da0e7e69b2dffb6.png8629FD2C-4FAD-406E-B7C3-32A8A6C9B7C8.thumb.png.d00a40ebe1cce1d4efe9e5f50069cf59.png

The UKMO’s seasonal model GloSea5 also with indication of blocking in Atlantic too SW but it is a 3 month mean, perhaps illustrating earlier in winter there would be more appetite for -NAO and as polar vortex strengths the blocking flattens out... allowing for more unsettled pattern later in winter. I remember seeing September update last year and we saw a sea of deep blue across high latitudes and importantly Greenland, so not quite as dreadful. 😄 

42B3B8E3-739D-4041-8C0D-3AFA76583D78.thumb.png.55c5d263bc2ff982d439b3077b1c4ce0.png

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Like tonight’s Navgem ( 😍🤩🤪) High pressure all the way and a surge from the Azores at the end , Brilliant. 

A394741F-2FAC-4372-86F3-BC447877A275.png

6A952A1B-3E27-4F70-A761-363DEDC0B6CB.png

A30ACD22-98D4-43C4-8E02-92BD6D124341.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Still checking the CFS runs for December, no point looking at 1 run, here’s the last 5 Z500 anomalies:

304AE7D3-29F9-41AF-9B8E-18A25AAA3AEE.thumb.png.3f526d9ff38f83cbc7a7406c47701603.png7A44CAD0-192D-4782-91AF-C00378566356.thumb.png.6443fc0b83031cdc59072387429912bb.png558009C6-34FA-45D4-80DB-D4DC5C1D2855.thumb.png.0a5ef1451e5262df11a1c1fd0b392da6.png988EE516-7F54-4D08-BD57-70B3627C32FE.thumb.png.48c324e709863fa55da0e7e69b2dffb6.png8629FD2C-4FAD-406E-B7C3-32A8A6C9B7C8.thumb.png.d00a40ebe1cce1d4efe9e5f50069cf59.png

Whilst not as optimistic about winter as I was before the QBO went mammaries up, there does still seem to be a signal for an early winter blast on some of the models, that doesn’t include GloSea5 unfortunately, but there is lots of time left yet....here’s to something interesting to talk about in our 14 day home imprisonments during winter.  

Hope so going Scottish highlands 30th November for a week 

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9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Like tonight’s Navgem ( 😍🤩🤪) High pressure

all the way and a surge fro the Azores at the end , Brilliant. 

A394741F-2FAC-4372-86F3-BC447877A275.png

6A952A1B-3E27-4F70-A761-363DEDC0B6CB.png

A30ACD22-98D4-43C4-8E02-92BD6D124341.png

All I can say looking at that is thank heavens for those tropical storms stopping the high sinking, otherwise that low over Iceland would be right over us in no time. 

Looks like a lovely week to come, with an increasing chance of some thundery outbreaks later perhaps.

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ECMshowing a retrogressive type high pressure set up, quite an unusual synoptical evolution, southerly flow, then a scandi high easterly , north easterly flow source NW Russia, then heights split with energy spilling in from the NW, forcing heights to migrate west with the jet sinking south and an ever colder polar air mass invading from the north.

Interesting. If it was winter, cold lovers dream..

I note no comment on ECM this eve probably because it ushers the warmth away quickly.. and no obvious return.

Edited by damianslaw
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7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

ECMshowing a retrogressive type high pressure set up, quite an unusual synoptical evolution, southerly flow, then a scandi high easterly , north easterly flow source NW Russia, then heights split with energy spilling in from the NW, forcing heights to migrate west with the jet sinking south and an ever colder polar air mass invading from the north.

Interesting. If it was winter, cold lovers dream..

I note no comment on ECM this eve probably because it ushers the warmth away quickly.. and no obvious return.

Yes I noticed that with reference to the last ECM , Not what most want to see . 

876C7B74-2D8B-4475-9656-A3351173C325.gif

CC64BF9E-C458-4356-98B5-2E204EDCC93C.gif

8C197B30-6C5A-496C-8152-50018ADFB5B9.gif

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And again nothing really to add this morning except gfs finally joins ukmo and ecm with a high pretty much plonked over the uk for a very long time and hardly any rainfall at all!!sunny and dry weather to continue🔥👌

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On 11/09/2020 at 21:43, johnholmes said:

Well the new 6-10 NOAA 500 mb anomaly repeats last night's chart, funny world we live in! Glad I'm not a forecaster now with all these models about. In my day it was good to get the next day correct

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

 

good night

You sound almost apologetic John, dont know why, IMHO those charts have behaved in a manner id expect. They adjust or "jump" a little from time to time. They are still the most reliable (but not infallible) for the timeframe they cover. Did the ECM out perform them on this occassion?.. well possibly, but that doesnt really matter, because the ECM also couldnt make its mind up the other day as to whether we would get Easterlies or Westerlies. Im not interested in chasing shadows, im interested in the Actual Weather (🤔) and what lies ahead most realistically. For that the NOAA charts for that timeframe are unbeatable.

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21 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

You sound almost apologetic John, dont know why, IMHO those charts have behaved in a manner id expect. They adjust or "jump" a little from time to time. They are still the most reliable (but not infallible) for the timeframe they cover. Did the ECM out perform them on this occassion?.. well possibly, but that doesnt really matter, because the ECM also couldnt make its mind up the other day as to whether we would get Easterlies or Westerlies. Im not interested in chasing shadows, im interested in the Actual Weather (🤔) and what lies ahead most realistically. For that the NOAA charts for that timeframe are unbeatable.

Rob - did you miss my post re the way the charts were out together ?  The jump was due to the change from gefs/gems/eps combo to pure ecm. human forecaster decision to arrive at this methodology and reflective of poor confidence in the general nwp 

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An update

Sunday 13 th

Ec-gfs and both are not that different to the previous shown above (Sat), so continuity on charts from day to day and with one another

Noaa has ditched the charts it showed from Thursday and Friday to a much more realistic (in my view) idea last evening (Saturday), and much nearer to the other two.

I now have a fair degree of belief in the 3 patterns shown by them. That is for some degree of +ve heights W or NW of the UK, possibly starting within the 6 day frame actually over the UK with an attendant surface feature beneath it, then migrating w/wnw with time, and into the 8-14 day period reverting to a more general atlantic type flow.

Thus the threat of a flow off the N Sea seems to have diminished, little sign, away from far nw/w of any rain for most of next week, but thereafter a more changeable spell at least for a time. Beyond 14 days=not my area of knowledge.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

oops, lost part of my edited post

I posted befre seeing those from mushy and ba

my comments

I agree with mushy in them being much better than the 2x and 4x daily synoptic outputs, and for ba I have been aware for several years how they are arrived at but thanks. Some 8-10 years ago I had a very fruitfull exchange of e mails with a forecaster doing those charts after a senior man at, Bracknell as it was in those days, had passed an e mail from me to NOAA.

I have not done stats on their accuracy for a number of years but using them every day I see no reason to alter what I found some 10-12 heays ago after checking them over summer and winter that 6-10 NOAA was about 70-75% correct on the UPPER flow and around 60-65% for its 8-14 day charts.

Best I shut up and stop clogging up the model thread but above is my summary for the upper and surface for, about 4-14 days from today.

Edited by johnholmes
addition for replies
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Tuesday starting to firm up as we get closer but as always the storm risk will be best watched through sat and radar on the day itself, latest fax chart has a front moving in from the west, looks like 30C + in the SE and 25C + up here and plenty CAPE. There is also an interesting little feature which keeps popping up in the central part of England not sure but possibly a small heat low? 1E6D006D-5FC9-4FCF-853F-22FAD3406934.thumb.png.6c74f665baea1d4f02cd07d12aa74b90.png47F4F978-CE2D-47C1-86B2-6AE4AE2D8474.thumb.png.23947dbddc5a0672aa1dcd5fefb99997.png800B4FDD-CD0E-4362-A22E-5CA13D019C41.thumb.png.a548cd5684fba3dee700bea6abb27b4b.png852B7806-B82D-4805-BA30-58FEFEAE7B7A.thumb.png.1edbfa6a06b48c7b84c2f096ba5b7e31.pngBB23FB5E-5A6B-43FF-9EB8-9487B7D29527.thumb.jpeg.b0cb62370162b2a623529b1493550dc9.jpeg

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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I gotta say the GEFS 6z mean is painting a predominantly settled picture well into late September..nothing lasts forever, apart from death but this September will be fondly remembered when it’s over..by the majority!!!!😉☀️

04A72532-3904-40E1-98AC-99BF0E53CF2E.thumb.png.0289303b5c5dbaaea322f2e8defc97d1.png087ADCCB-A9BA-4934-BEC1-4186BF34BD91.thumb.png.bb65cfa20c422caad5b3f75e90f41c6c.png7D1FB52B-99AC-4DA1-8402-B8EBA3292502.thumb.png.18660d7a7b3f43ba2d66885f9da8a5ad.png94E190D4-C27A-4A58-998D-E0A3ED4FEC04.thumb.png.86caf4876fc255ecf2f1d4e5df6f6d46.pngD54ABC9A-048B-4574-BB1E-3F1AD0702BC1.thumb.png.305e3d3ab8b7110d11aec92c6119c10e.png27501E0E-AB03-44E1-B7FC-6D38F8E33647.thumb.png.b13be4fd4ac178e215517c259ade3d20.png

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3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Rob - did you miss my post re the way the charts were out together ?  The jump was due to the change from gefs/gems/eps combo to pure ecm. human forecaster decision to arrive at this methodology and reflective of poor confidence in the general nwp 

Nope i saw that, its interesting, however those charts do jump from time to time , not as much (obviously) as the ops but still... ill take Johns 70-75% correct, anyday...

This one event though cannot be taken outside of isolation. Ive been blogging for a while now using the NOAA to guide the most likely op scenario. Several days ago there was a sticking point, as no one knew what Tuesday would bring. The models couldnt agree on the cut off low/building pressure to our northwest. Normaly we can see upto ten days ahead with reasonable confidence (detail to be determined) but Tuesday was a sticking point. So every model was struggling..

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3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Nope i saw that, its interesting, however those charts do jump from time to time , not as much (obviously) as the ops but still... ill take Johns 70-75% correct, anyday...

This one event though cannot be taken outside of isolation. Ive been blogging for a while now using the NOAA to guide the most likely op scenario. Several days ago there was a sticking point, as no one knew what Tuesday would bring. The models couldnt agree on the cut off low/building pressure to our northwest. Normaly we can see upto ten days ahead with reasonable confidence (detail to be determined) but Tuesday was a sticking point. So every model was struggling..

Well mushy i did see a post from your goodself  suggesting HP domination by mid month.

Not bad, not bad at all.

In fairness though NWP in general has been signposting this for a number of days now.

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The GEFS 12z mean indicates quite a prolonged largely settled spell continuing until well into the week after next which takes us into late September..so, plenty of high pressure to look forward to but then there are signs of a change to something more typically autumnal but in no way is this guaranteed, there are still some settled or at least warmer options on the table even as we approach October.

F830288B-57C9-49B8-8EE2-671C46D9A6D1.thumb.png.bbd588424a734806a859cb665ca3bfa8.png1356AC61-2354-4331-B622-3C869EC88B28.thumb.png.17e05cb012e7321b0769f3e81bafcf88.png4FC6BFFB-BB52-4AB9-9B24-90F1D6E37C25.thumb.png.7aee304b4bebe3435db1987bd37b2bd5.png42555938-1D0B-4037-9E0B-4C4A59A0C955.thumb.png.b09ab526d4e997f184cdc4a0edaa60a3.png53174739-CEFF-4DB0-9740-74CE70C2C50F.thumb.png.7cb01f7c05830b261073145f40c8c03b.png6E385370-9E0B-4768-9339-4DA875DED116.thumb.png.c5f257c20f7b8bb87d7591eddb33c22a.pngAAC0A9BD-9722-4E5D-89D0-2ECBA827D7C5.thumb.png.b17ae514489ffeba29b99e5f78f656ab.png4B478124-0DDC-41FF-B0B1-B21645AACDF1.thumb.png.a88a138dea3e2743bdf8c2ebcf0503b0.png

 

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The coming week will be interesting.

We might import some cooler continental air as we hit Wed , mist or foggy mornings perhaps..

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The coming week will be interesting.

We might import some cooler continental air as we hit Wed , mist or foggy mornings perhaps..

Decent for us on this side of the country though. The air never looks that cool on the ECM.

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12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

The coming week will be interesting.

We might import some cooler continental air as we hit Wed , mist or foggy mornings perhaps..

Very wet and windy next Tuesday to Friday according to GEM but looks  more settled again at very long range - high pressure re-establishes over UK even on the 27th September 2020 - 30th September after next weeks heavy rain. But thats for the future - enjoy today's hot weather.   ICON looks good for this Saturday from a sunshine perspective but expect much cooler temperatures. 

image.thumb.png.ff71f7bf30c8db7c67a7c6f54e7334d6.pngimage.thumb.png.45f86483e96a1f8d67c8e7eccfe6a751.pngimage.thumb.png.73934933471f399c28aef3f3eb3d6df3.pngimage.thumb.png.eec94603d3b7e4e937bf7dbcb16b59a3.pngimage.thumb.png.b66fb05b2d48acee5dff9ebb696c7fb3.pngimage.thumb.png.5f11a574909bad1c3556be26a940b34f.pngimage.thumb.png.1741c211e12efae7e2e626bfe20d1360.png

image.png

Edited by NApplewhite

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12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Well mushy i did see a post from your goodself  suggesting HP domination by mid month.

Not bad, not bad at all.

In fairness though NWP in general has been signposting this for a number of days now.

The difference between John and myself is that i do like to speculate as the the most likely way the NOAA's are going beyond the timeframe they cover. On this occassion with some success, but the accuracy rate is pretty low and most of the time when i try to spot the next high pressure build , like i have done all summer, they fail to materialise fully. But its fun, lol, and as long as its understood its speculation , a possibility, then its fine.

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The ECM 0z op is a cracker if you love high pressure..signs of change beyond 24th Sept but plenty of settled and warm weather up to that point!😜☀️
37F18C91-1796-40CB-9749-51477C76477F.thumb.png.a1594edf9cd4b5d211e1899e7e1508c1.pngBD9E3B12-1E8A-4CCA-9365-B9B7E672E1C1.thumb.png.f1e5c57bf382a37e645f06ceaa1c54d4.png8032486E-1D5E-4B97-B228-A4320B2438D9.thumb.png.93615abb43bee81700fa4f93e3fb1967.png357A7D4E-1C14-4C9E-8AA2-12B4E707548F.thumb.png.1d94268e6c706f625d42054389733c52.pngC4A4D8E1-BEBD-4131-A9A4-85BB024DC633.thumb.png.4445668fc36235c79181273b29bd7b96.png914A9939-4873-4606-BE1C-0EE61B714AB3.thumb.png.f1cac719fc9deb7efde52e7047c0461a.png05CD6167-BA6D-42BE-8EE2-40BC645531BF.thumb.png.938a2927571b7e57f055e246516c8106.png74FF0C07-0F32-4E7E-BD9F-23B08916DE03.thumb.png.42c26d7e4f396e39c0d39b28b353a62c.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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To highlight just how much confidence one should have in the models beyond day 7 (before Teddy goes extra-tropical) the Euro manages to produce a chart which includes the remains of no less than three tropical systems (Sally-Teddy-Paulette going left to right). 

spacer.png

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Always a bit of a shame to look for the end of a settled spell when it has only just begun, but ECM clusters are pointing towards somewhere between D8 and D10, in spite of what today's op run produced

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020091400_192. ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020091400_240.

As mentioned though, the number of tropical storms around reduces forecasting confidence beyond a few days more than usual.

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0D333C0E-69EF-41C0-A9C1-81609143C249.thumb.png.f1a7113b428f2aa1e218b278bba3c2d0.png3334A29E-8DF3-48AA-A4F0-D54A23D9B552.thumb.png.2f393e309dbc7880d289cc1145a2f4bb.png
20021047-9D97-401D-8EA4-70556B8D6BAF.thumb.png.b30bc63ab1fc33bf074d67b1ca5b033b.png

Some slight differences by Saturday with relation to that Iberian trough. UKMO best and most settled.

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