Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

The difference in the two outputs is likely caused by the forecast for tropical convection. The Euro kills it which allows the background pattern to manifest, the GFS keeps a phase 1-2 output which in November puts a trough to our west. mjo1.thumb.gif.80721ece28e97194e7c2bcc05fac6e66.gif

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

E763CE7E-29EE-4D7C-B4E6-E9A56B86A2A7.thumb.png.eea94c32cd3c3cf71983245e145b293d.png

Floodgates starting to open on the day 10 ECM tonight! Pretty cold northerly likely 1-2 days from here!

A sudden switch to cold would be nice like what happened in nov 2005. Mid nov 2005 chart

NOAA_1_2005111512_1.png

Edited by sundog
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Fairly benign charts for the foreseeable future. Mostly western driven with ridges of HP holding over our islands, so some frost and fog interspersed with brisk Atlantic weather fronts. But the future is considerably brighter with the Pfizer announcement yesterday! Haven't posted here in a while, but not expecting any early winter surprise so far.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's been a pretty benign period of model watching, which is fine by me.  I hate to see perfect synoptics a few weeks too early, so they can wait another couple of weeks. That said, the day 10 ECM could be setting up something rather interesting down the line..... shame it's got less than 5% chance of verifying.  But something to keep an eye on if nothing else!

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

As we all no high pressure to the north,low pressure to the south jackpot.

unfortunately it seems the reverse at present.but this fairly dry November is

due to high pressure close to the U.K. in wrong positioning bringing mild to very mild

conditions along with many parts of Europe.

This of course can change quite quickly,the met office believes this to happen

but maybe not in a quick mode,but still this recurring high pressure to dominate 

our weather over a considerable time and perhaps a more Northerly pressure rise.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

We’re you expecting something different in this Autumn month of November?

In terms of the other output showing at the moment - then yes!

A zonal Atlantic onslaught isn’t expected at this moment. I’m sure there will be times this winter when it’ll be on the menu, but late November doesn’t appear to be one of them.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Welcome Josh to the mad house

The EPS seems to agree with things turning more normal at least following some very mild weather early next week with high pressure nudging west, and instead dragging in more NW flow, how far north and west will determine how cold it gets the ECM 12z was on the way to something spectacular but big minority.

24DF53FE-E186-48C3-9BC9-591B494A9320.thumb.png.31e275193de8fc365eb73b474f4a8383.png61442C68-7948-425B-832D-3E66372EC260.thumb.gif.ccd57efe3d3fa5c514c1981967c3c81b.gif

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Reletively mild outlook it must be said. Will the Azores high ridge in a way which would bring exceptionally mild weather for the time of year which the models are hinting at. 

The cooler periods don't look all that chilly at all really, I fancy areas in the south to have constant maximum temperatures of double figures for a good while yet. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Evening, I no it’s day 10 but the ECM looks to be sucking the high pressure to the north west and we could get a Northerly a few days later . Fingers crossed 🤞🏻 

6DF3E1B8-E056-466B-8050-91F74F3F13B1.png

And the 18z gfs is some 232 hrs behind😆

gfsnh-0-372.thumb.png.271222bf108ad07a886f738aeac4eadf.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Reletively mild outlook it must be said. Will the Azores high ridge in a way which would bring exceptionally mild weather for the time of year which the models are hinting at. 

The cooler periods don't look all that chilly at all really, I fancy areas in the south to have constant maximum temperatures of double figures for a good while yet. 

That is already agreed upon looking at ECM output only, models have been on for it days, early next week, potential for high teens maybe we could squeeze v exceptional 20C with foehn. It looks to swiftly come to an end though as it repositions west.

D8151D27-75F5-4B5A-B0C4-5DBE3283884A.thumb.gif.88844a968092839f6ee26df7266f9163.gifx

 

Edited by Daniel*
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Shouldnt have checked the 0Z runs. The GFS is hideous. This at day 9. AO will soon attack the 2019/20 winter numbers. Iam sure EC will  follow soon. @Roger J Smith will not be far of with his winter ideas. 

gfsnh-0-198.png

You are referencing winter on the back of one operational in mid November?

Really?

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You are referencing winter on the back of one operational in mid November?

Really?

To be fair,  he's basis, is on the fact that percentage wise the most likely out come for Winter from a starting point like this,  is a mild one. Not saying that's how it's going to pan out, but there's a high chance.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...