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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The graphs look nothing good on the ensembles suites but if you look at the runs individually, there is the appetite to drop a trough just to the East of us so it does actually tie in with the Met Office extended, remember they say wintry showers early December so we wouldn't actually see any actual Northerlies in the modelling until the next few days.

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    DWD (German model) was showing this in October - positive heights just to our north west, so a certain possibility - and that could mask some cold shots.

    With UK high there is going to be some significant frost IMBY in Slovakia.Remember January 2017? Coldest here since 1987! I hope it wont slip to the east too much

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Hi Southbank, they do indeed get posted/updated monthly. The charts can be viewed down below. Different parameters you can play around with such as the 2 meter temperatures, 500hPa height anomalies, pressure, precipitation and more: 

    climate-averages-hero.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Ensemble-mean fields up to six months ahead. Updated monthly,


    A7D65AA1-2307-4621-BC72-36DFBE17E55F.thumb.jpeg.4b845b915e4563f0c393b4bef5c21c2f.jpeg

    Looks like they get updated around early to mid-month. Suspect the new update for the December/January/February period will be updated tomorrow seeing as the last update was on 11th October. 

    From what it’s been showing on the October update for the DFJ period, using both the 500hPa and Pressure charts:

    D5A0C0FB-3620-4302-86EE-0F5980849E57.thumb.png.4e7a63cd8be97ae71c1d83f37cb0ea19.png43E47588-6DE9-4C57-BF0D-589AFA1CE51B.thumb.png.58603ce1cff7e09c4c854855661f8de9.png

     

    looks like generally some High Pressure and high upper heights close by to the UK to our East. Some upper height rises to the North of the UK too. But it does also show Low Pressure to our North-West in the Atlantic at times.  Despite the upper heights showing some promise of blocking over and to the East and North of the UK, looks like it would be generally drivern by a fairly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. So probably not the best pattern for colder weather. Ideally could do with some stronger positive pressure and height anomalies (yellows and oranges) over central/Northern Scandinavia and the Greenland regions. Certainly on the Sea Level Pressure anomaly chart. So be interesting to see what the next update delivers.

    Wouldn’t consider myself to be an expert on these and some might disagree with my analysis. Also worth saying, that with this being a 3 month average, it won’t necessarily mean all the months will be like the above. Could get one month of strong Greenland Highs and 2 months of strong low pressure over that region to still give that chart a bit of a positive NAO feeling to the 3 month average. 
     

    Hope this is of some help 🙂

    That SLP anomaly chart is about as bad as it gets for UK winter cold. It has the usual strong high over the North Pacific which sends cold down into Canada/US which then spills out of the East Coast and fires up the jet. We've then got a -ve anomaly over Iceland and +ve over mainland Europe, so strong +ve NAO. The only slight positive is the AO is only weakly +ve and the main body of the polar vortex is not over Greenland. Its only an average of course, but a classic very mild setup for us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    4 minutes ago, reef said:

    That SLP anomaly chart is about as bad as it gets for UK winter cold. It has the usual strong high over the North Pacific which sends cold down into Canada/US which then spills out of the East Coast and fires up the jet. We've then got a -ve anomaly over Iceland and +ve over mainland Europe, so strong +ve NAO. The only slight positive is the AO is only weakly +ve and the main body of the polar vortex is not over Greenland. Its only an average of course, but a classic very mild setup for us.

    Thanks 🙂 That sounds like a more accurate and fairer analysis of those charts 😅 Just got to hope for something more promising on the next update (if you want cold and/or snow)

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For anyone who was perhaps a bit disappointed by how the ECM 0z operational (det) ended, the mean ended rather better, especially for southern parts of the u k.🙂 ☀️ 👍 

    D421AD61-43FA-4B2F-B0C3-24929020F9CE.thumb.jpeg.123ade627c79d8b44710c5c0c9af0463.jpegAA41FB81-0B29-4EAF-B8FF-3348282ABB11.thumb.jpeg.d885eded36c604dbef35e7c65e6df6c7.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEF 06Z has been on the Mogadons again... Zeds at 384! zzzzzzzz!😱

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    I would take the control run thank you very much, of course it will not verify and the op will😃

    anim_mih3.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The eps clusters certainly continue the trend for some retrogression but there are too many clusters to have any kind of confidence in a particular solution 

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    Ben Noll has some nice graphics on his twitter account, this one is comparing multimodel ensemble vs last year for T2M differences. Europe looks cooler this year then last, of course have to take in to account that Europe had mildest winter on record by average more then 3C above.

    brn nol.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The eps clusters certainly continue the trend for some retrogression but there are too many clusters to have any kind of confidence in a particular solution 

    5 out of 6 clusters would bring snow probably  IMBY first 3 are great with Sceuro trough and northerly winds in to central Europe. Of course cluster 5 with 7 out of 51 members will verify 🙂

    123878489_658727268150756_6228981327672030630_o.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
    3 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Hi Southbank, they do indeed get posted/updated monthly. The charts can be viewed down below. Different parameters you can play around with such as the 2 meter temperatures, 500hPa height anomalies, pressure, precipitation and more: 

    climate-averages-hero.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Ensemble-mean fields up to six months ahead. Updated monthly,


    A7D65AA1-2307-4621-BC72-36DFBE17E55F.thumb.jpeg.4b845b915e4563f0c393b4bef5c21c2f.jpeg

    Looks like they get updated around early to mid-month. Suspect the new update for the December/January/February period will be updated tomorrow seeing as the last update was on 11th October. 

    From what it’s been showing on the October update for the DFJ period, using both the 500hPa and Pressure charts:

    D5A0C0FB-3620-4302-86EE-0F5980849E57.thumb.png.4e7a63cd8be97ae71c1d83f37cb0ea19.png43E47588-6DE9-4C57-BF0D-589AFA1CE51B.thumb.png.58603ce1cff7e09c4c854855661f8de9.png

     

    looks like generally some High Pressure and high upper heights close by to the UK to our East. Some upper height rises to the North of the UK too. But it does also show Low Pressure to our North-West in the Atlantic at times.  Despite the upper heights showing some promise of blocking over and to the East and North of the UK, looks like it would be generally drivern by a fairly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. So probably not the best pattern for colder weather. Ideally could do with some stronger positive pressure and height anomalies (yellows and oranges) over central/Northern Scandinavia and the Greenland regions. Certainly on the Sea Level Pressure anomaly chart. So be interesting to see what the next update delivers.

    Wouldn’t consider myself to be an expert on these and some might disagree with my analysis. Also worth saying, that with this being a 3 month average, it won’t necessarily mean all the months will be like the above. Could get one month of strong Greenland Highs and 2 months of strong low pressure over that region to still give that chart a bit of a positive NAO feeling to the 3 month average. 
     

    Hope this is of some help 🙂

    thank you thats exactly what I was looking for - i be keen to see Nov update to see any subtle switches

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For those of you (I assume the majority) hoping for a quiet pleasant anticyclonic spell next week, the GEFS 6z mean will be right up your alley!😜

    668A24B4-1FC3-4395-B2BE-5DCC96A49641.thumb.jpeg.0f7983707f069255f2985de2f89fe9f6.jpegD3AA1E02-EF14-420F-9826-4F8736F7538D.thumb.jpeg.7ce5d1c1c32bde0a35c281d00ac3a634.jpeg48CEFC46-6AC6-4641-AD8D-A7AB469861E7.thumb.jpeg.1ae4bd9fe934f86ec4871d6bc136800d.jpegA076D6E0-9049-4EE4-921D-22D82FAFEDD0.thumb.jpeg.8ce4f4de3517dc3a94343cf39b52f721.jpeg6A53DFCC-932E-4CE2-9A21-A8E092DF7392.thumb.jpeg.49542a673a852acb76748d075ae84635.jpeg77D01A07-84F4-4062-BA86-691A64006403.thumb.jpeg.6f3d49e2506f0c169a2ac1a9f9e992e6.jpeg0D0C3342-ABB6-45ED-A0A3-D824E7A22C0D.thumb.jpeg.19a8932502c01407ffebd41c96f2964a.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    If we had these forums in 1946 and 1962 folk may well have made similar comments!

    Just a guess, I’m presuming that forecasts were no more than 3 to 4 days, I bet a 10 Day was a long range forecasts, how things have moved on but then again we struggle with just 10 Days so I’ll take that back..... things haven’t changed that much then 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
    3 hours ago, Arch Stanton said:

    I've got a bad feeling about this winter, I know it's only November but there are no signs of any locked-in cold getting established in the Continent but it seems that deep cold Canadian plumes will continue to advance

    far into the southern US states - they are sure to fire up the Jet with all that entails for our weather in the UK. November regularly used to have sub zero temperatures across Central Europe that used to ebb and flow east & westwards throughout the winter months.

     I just hope I'm wrong but the signs look rubbish for anything cold.😞

    I wouldn't put the coming winter in its grave just yet ⚰ Arch Stanton .

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Best to not comment on the 12z GFS! Simply dreadful.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Best to not comment on the 12z GFS! Simply dreadful.

    I'll make a comment on it since the rules don't state if a chart is dreadful it's best not to comment on it. 🙂 

    image.thumb.png.f21dee91e8fe0a4e34f0dec54dfa5351.png

    image.thumb.png.04143277fd7224f018ad7ffabfc8f19e.png

    image.thumb.png.37833352532d96cc700da6cad3bf3367.png

     

    Looking pretty mild, pretty standard and pretty plain for this time of year. 

     

    I don't really expect much else. I'm also happy to accept the above charts mean absolutely nothing at all for Winter.

    🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Jet looks like it’s heading south and the PJF is headed that way too. Unusual looking chart this 🤔 looks

    like there is a ridge trying to build in the final frames?

    1E88A2DF-2A34-4C58-BC29-C27C5FC92389.png

    B9841F0C-9789-4AB9-823F-DFF4DAB96CF5.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice long-fetch southwesterlies... Winter 2020-21 is gearing up for ACTION!😬

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Thats ok,lets get all the crud looking charts  now,and actually get some decent cold at the end of December  and into early January for a change.Its not like its been an age since it last happened,over 40 years since last C.E.T temp below 0c in January 😏

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Mighnt just be me but the charts and outlook look like November type weather🤔not sure about lanina, eqbo and snowcover it just seems like autumn. Whatever Dec, Jan, Feb bring I've not a clue but its autumn 😐nothing remotely wintry so I guess that's it atm

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