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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Nothing notable - it doesn’t seem to be Martha or Arthur .......

    Oh dear! I should have known with the total absence of any comments about it. 

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    We have lift off....

    27A6484A-E958-40DF-B5D1-75D49C504021.png

    Yes the high looks to be retrogressing west just like the 12z control did.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    That would be a surprise to everyone from ridiculously mild weather to bitter Northerlies and sub-zero maxes for some. Bring it on I say 🤑

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    38 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    FI GFS is predicting a week of high pressure over the UK from the 18th to the 26th November:

    39626063-598A-4E5E-93BA-81621B9BC59A.thumb.gif.cbb709d33412ddac6975916dbe3cec4d.gif

    Initially mild but cooling down towards the end of the period:

    DCFE607C-5AF0-429C-BC7C-B9C37423CE16.thumb.gif.d5d02e6967e1b7c145b47d20c4b6d61b.gif

    but rainfall almost absent according to this sequence....

    6A8CB809-9117-4A41-9C97-0174EEE1792A.thumb.gif.217e222d3a5257b5cda08db5088a1cac.gif

    A period of settled weather looks likely but I very much doubt it will be as dry as depicted.  
    December is now the most likely month for any real wintery weather to appear but nothing’s written in stone yet!

    Looks like we've got some very different options at day 10 now:

    Going from most settled, somewhere in the middle, to more unsettled:

    GFS                                                              GEM                                                            ECMWF
    image.thumb.png.e32acc2f7335d26e3465323a79faf106.pngimage.thumb.png.37a9b44992e08ab103fd100c3aa93b84.pngimage.thumb.png.e7cf34b3da6efc7691cdb30bd9731a27.png

    Have to check the GFS and ECM ensembles to see the bigger picture here I think!

    GFS a bit of an outlier as you'd expect:

    image.thumb.png.d47c47fa0acecd2cc34ba7da0243120f.png
     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The fabled UK high, a regular visitor in Winter! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
    11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Looks like we've got some very different options at day 10 now:

    Going from most settled, somewhere in the middle, to more unsettled:

    GFS                                                              GEM                                                            ECMWF
    image.thumb.png.e32acc2f7335d26e3465323a79faf106.pngimage.thumb.png.37a9b44992e08ab103fd100c3aa93b84.pngimage.thumb.png.e7cf34b3da6efc7691cdb30bd9731a27.png

    Have to check the GFS and ECM ensembles to see the bigger picture here I think!

    GFS a bit of an outlier as you'd expect:

    image.thumb.png.d47c47fa0acecd2cc34ba7da0243120f.png
     

    Yep.  Quite a bit of variation there - it’s all about the positioning of the high which looks likely to develop to our south west.   I would like to see a cool high dominate out weather at the end of November - which could bring some increasingly rare early winter frosts and fog to some parts - but I thing the ECM is more likely closest to reality here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    7 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Gfs slowly getting there. Cold start to December on the cards? 

    That’s basically what the MO have been suggesting in their extended output for some time now, and the text hasn’t really changed, so perhaps not surprising we’re seeing it in the output. Loooooong way out though.... plenty of time for it to go wrong 😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Looks like a very slow gathering of pace for some kind of retrogression of the Euro high in the latter reaches of GFS over the last couple of days.

    Maybe something to keep an eye on.

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 00Z at T+384... more possible fog probs incoming?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    apologies I know its off topic but i have no idea where to ask - when does the GLOSEA 5 ( UK Met) model update for DJF time period , I thought the Met posted monthly updates on its website? Does it shoe any interest?

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Some interesting charts here

    Cold is on it's way. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_72.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_120.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    54 minutes ago, southbank said:

    apologies I know its off topic but i have no idea where to ask - when does the GLOSEA 5 ( UK Met) model update for DJF time period , I thought the Met posted monthly updates on its website? Does it shoe any interest?

    Hi Southbank, they do indeed get posted/updated monthly. The charts can be viewed down below. Different parameters you can play around with such as the 2 meter temperatures, 500hPa height anomalies, pressure, precipitation and more: 

    climate-averages-hero.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Ensemble-mean fields up to six months ahead. Updated monthly,


    A7D65AA1-2307-4621-BC72-36DFBE17E55F.thumb.jpeg.4b845b915e4563f0c393b4bef5c21c2f.jpeg

    Looks like they get updated around early to mid-month. Suspect the new update for the December/January/February period will be updated tomorrow seeing as the last update was on 11th October. 

    From what it’s been showing on the October update for the DFJ period, using both the 500hPa and Pressure charts:

    D5A0C0FB-3620-4302-86EE-0F5980849E57.thumb.png.4e7a63cd8be97ae71c1d83f37cb0ea19.png43E47588-6DE9-4C57-BF0D-589AFA1CE51B.thumb.png.58603ce1cff7e09c4c854855661f8de9.png

     

    looks like generally some High Pressure and high upper heights close by to the UK to our East. Some upper height rises to the North of the UK too. But it does also show Low Pressure to our North-West in the Atlantic at times.  Despite the upper heights showing some promise of blocking over and to the East and North of the UK, looks like it would be generally drivern by a fairly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. So probably not the best pattern for colder weather. Ideally could do with some stronger positive pressure and height anomalies (yellows and oranges) over central/Northern Scandinavia and the Greenland regions. Certainly on the Sea Level Pressure anomaly chart. So be interesting to see what the next update delivers.

    Wouldn’t consider myself to be an expert on these and some might disagree with my analysis. Also worth saying, that with this being a 3 month average, it won’t necessarily mean all the months will be like the above. Could get one month of strong Greenland Highs and 2 months of strong low pressure over that region to still give that chart a bit of a positive NAO feeling to the 3 month average. 
     

    Hope this is of some help 🙂

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Changing Pressure to Sea Level Pressure
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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    Interesting! BOM website has updates ENSO charts from various model guidance. Looks like we could be stabilizing within wintertime ONI betwen -1.3 to -1.6 which gives these as best ENSO analog sets - 1955/56,1975/76.1998/99,1999/2000,2007/08,2010/11. Have a look at the blend of these years Nov-Feb with comparison to latest GEFS evolution. Uncanny similarities. Poleward Aleutian high/neutral NAO/mid Atlatic-western Europe ridge and Sceuro througing.  

    1CQs9ClI.jpg

    YEgZnyHc.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.d665232d06de30ccd5246112849b872a.pngimage.thumb.png.a35eabb4282a5996a8ee8d01e0ef1a0e.png

    ECM Op was a big outlier at the end for SLP and 500mb heights - indicating it being too aggressive with the low pressure influence. Mean stays above 1025mb, indicating high pressure is a good bet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    This would be a very powerful anticyclone for late November on the Gfs 0z operational...very impressive if it happens..and for what it’s worth, I believe we will see an anticyclonic mid / late November!😜

    98D16ED4-9413-47B9-A6D6-8025187BF037.thumb.jpeg.acdd6170c4e0a0e979241837a0a6885e.jpeg9203D1BB-22A4-4142-AF76-7C807D4A4C2F.thumb.jpeg.e80723512ebba6525d6885adc4cef5f5.jpeg

    Looks like the high we had in mid January when some places broke pressure records... it was a lovely spell of weather in an otherwise boring month. Would be nice to see it transfer to the northeast.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Worth barring in mind that the ‘October Fog Index’ is based on the theory that fog is caused by high pressure over the UK and a high over the UK in Autumn has a fair chance of moving to a favourable position in winter to create a block. I’d be more than happy to have some fine weather to see out this lockdown and then a cold December with hopefully some snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    51 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    Interesting! BOM website has updates ENSO charts from various model guidance. Looks like we could be stabilizing within wintertime ONI betwen -1.3 to -1.6 which gives these as best ENSO analog sets - 1955/56,1975/76.1998/99,1999/2000,2007/08,2010/11. Have a look at the blend of these years Nov-Feb with comparison to latest GEFS evolution. Uncanny similarities. Poleward Aleutian high/neutral NAO/mid Atlatic-western Europe ridge and Sceuro througing.  

    1CQs9ClI.jpg

    YEgZnyHc.jpg

    DWD (German model) was showing this in October - positive heights just to our north west, so a certain possibility - and that could mask some cold shots.

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