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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Can't say i'm overly worried about the current zonal period in the long run albeit the next ten days are pretty poor.

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I know what you mean @summer blizzard, but I wouldn't exactly call it 'zonal'... in fact, mid-month looks quite 'amplified', to me... It's just that all the amplifications are in the wrong place!😬

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, as you so rightly point out: the weather, in mid-November doesn't correlate much with whatever follows... Think 1978?👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I was getting all excited there, for a wee minute... BUT!

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Back to squaro uno!😱

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Best run in a while. Op catching up with ensembles perhaps...

    260CC834-58F7-4FA9-9B0F-DEA43DEE8314.png

    6F6FD45C-5ACF-4ABC-8B78-7503DF9BC385.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.e791650056c8bd53334cdff02637bdd8.png

    Another dose of the 10c isotherm in November on the 6z GFS. Any interest for this month is going to be at the end.


    We also have this area (orange cross) of interest that is currently developing in the tropical Atlantic. You can see it south of the Azores on Friday on the day 4 ECM chart below. 
    All of the models have it drifting towards Iberia before fizzling out, so probably nothing to affect things too much.

    image.thumb.png.a10a1a319c4cbde663edb579f46a3313.pngimage.thumb.png.f3c18e43784a13b4b9dd59b35fbb7574.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Potentially interesting developments at the very end of the GFS 06Z... La Nina perhaps?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    17 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Potentially interesting developments at the very end of the GFS 06Z... La Nina perhaps?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    That's the thinking. Now the MJO has passed through, we should hopefully see a nudge back towards a more typical Nina set up - of which that chart certainly is more than the current pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    I know what you mean @summer blizzard, but I wouldn't exactly call it 'zonal'... in fact, mid-month looks quite 'amplified', to me... It's just that all the amplifications are in the wrong place!😬

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, as you so rightly point out: the weather, in mid-November doesn't correlate much with whatever follows... Think 1978?👍

    We've been following a fairly typical MJO composite for October phases 5-8 (though we don't actually have much amplitude for phases 7 and and 8). Current model forecasts suggest a 1-2 orbit coming up which is more or less what the Euro advertises. 

    Generally an active MJO is bad until phases 6-8 in November so it would be better for it to die and let the Nina background state begin to dominate at this time of year but if we do keep an active tropical cycle then the picture improves in December.

    In short, we may have to put up with a poor November but December holds more promise.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Don't want very cold weather in November anyway,too early in the season, away from rare occurrences like 2010 and 1965  etc, also plenty of very mild spells in November have led to very cold spells of weather in the following winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    Looking mild for the foreseeable future.  Temperatures more akin to May than November.  Getting December 2015 vibes from the ensembles.  Here's where we flip from very mild to very cold come December (like the flip from exceptionally wet to exceptionally dry in the Spring)!

    09_11_2020.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Broad similarity to Nov 2015 at this point with record warmth across North America, fast flow across the Atlantic, rising temperatures in early to mid Nov western Europe. This could go on for 6-10 weeks and push any winter hopes back into Feb/Mar. 

    Interesting set up Roger with record warmth flipping to record cold in space of 2 days....now that’s ‘meridional’ for you...

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Excuse my ignorance but year after year why does there generally seem to be a semi perment high over Europe heading into autumn, winter keeping the jet generally on track for the UK. Also what's causing this huge stationary block to the east without much movement north or west🤔🤔tia

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    The gfs 12z is typical atv192 hours is what I'm getting at. Perfect summer chart 🤔🤔🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    image.thumb.png.2a8abdb679d01f26f24c02b227e230f3.pngimage.thumb.png.1a6583f9c61e8b8533ad0fccaa931252.png

     

    You're more than welcome to have a bit of fun if you want, GFS 12z...
     

    But it'd be nice if you have a good look at yourself in around a months time or so!!

     

    In all fairness I don't mind a bit of a mild push at this time of year - means I don't get that brrrr feeling when I walk outside.

    Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t300

    The 1045 High pressure is situated in a much more favourable place on the GFS 12 z for November 22nd . 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    10 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t300

    The 1045 High pressure is situated in a much more favourable place on the GFS 12 z for November 22nd . 

    Yes it's dry at least. Dosnt look like it's moving anywhere fast ie north or north west. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, swfc said:

    Excuse my ignorance but year after year why does there generally seem to be a semi perment high over Europe heading into autumn, winter keeping the jet generally on track for the UK. Also what's causing this huge stationary block to the east without much movement north or west🤔🤔tia

    Don't know buts its the reason we have had so many mild winters the last few years. Amazing also that when spring arrives these semi permanent highs dissappear as if by magic and we get blocking where we would like it during the Winter. 

    Better from the gfs, perhaps something colder arriving last week of month, and onwards 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Dreadful ecm no wonder no comments about it.Maybe tomorrow be more  encouraging ,cant get any worse.

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

    Cold pool building in situ, pressure dropping  over the Baltics and Southern Europe...all on track with the Met office long range forecast 

    04ADFB3F-2252-4E77-BAEE-F254767A2FD4.png

    ATM the way things are it’s.....🤞

    image.thumb.gif.3d026f01b310dc6b362f9788f04d7c5b.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Does anybody know what today's Ec46 is showing? 

    Nothing notable - it doesn’t seem to be Martha or Arthur .......

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Dreadful ecm no wonder no comments about it.Maybe tomorrow be more  encouraging ,cant get any worse.

    The ECM doesn't go out as far as the gfs does and hence it's why there is no eye candy😃

    talk about eye candy,i am surprised no one posted the control run

    gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.4c6c4989ff4bfc66f80cc67f5d1383b8.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.040a7ac176fa70492434396e6c3774ab.png

    all JFF but this is what we want to see in future runs,a retrogression of the hp cell to migrate into the N Atlantic.

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