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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    Aye... extremely subtle: mostly dry and mild to dry and mostly mild!😁

    Was hoping there would be a pressure rise towards Greenland early doors on the 6z ie a wedge. Like North West says"wedges make sledges "🙏 BTW gc Rita is still looking hot🔥🔥

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Certainly a mid Atlantic ridge like some of those ensemble members show is more akin to an early winter Nina pattern compared with now. One to watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Definite improvement in the ensembles with more cold options on the table at the end of the month with the op on the mild side. Expect a few good op runs over the next few days in FI...

    208882FB-5626-4AF3-B9B6-38BACA294A8E.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    I always did have a 'thing' for Ena Sharples!👀😱

    Pwahhh that hairnet!!😜...anyway, moving swiftly on...the GEFS 6z actually had a hint of SNAW!🧐😜 🥶 ️ 

    870C2C1E-75AF-4775-B3E5-69338B47C395.thumb.jpeg.812628faefc8bd69e4eb94d413cf4588.jpeg45C37C46-C096-4D3C-BC7F-3E3C1E649EC5.thumb.jpeg.e217f4ea6f9f047a719bd01545fffb40.jpeg3A087D27-DFDE-4849-A913-02B059D953C8.thumb.jpeg.88fb73cd9301f23d16da2924d2b46f6a.jpegC066BEAC-B03F-4BAA-906B-97551DF56B85.thumb.jpeg.1647f9708485108dcbe30fa5af7d70dd.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Crikey... I've never seen such a brilliant GFS!👍

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Crikey... I've never seen such a brilliant GFS!👍

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    cool edward, no winter clothing for quarantine walks, my exercise, sigh

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    UK only ‘mild shield’ in play....changes look like being afoot down the line

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Crikey... I've never seen such a brilliant GFS!👍

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Aye, for Finland & Northern Norway the Gfs 12z op turns into a cracker..or peach 🍑 ..for the u k..it’s a bit MEH..as usual!!! 😜🥶 ❄️ ️ 😍

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    cool edward, no winter clothing for quarantine walks, my exercise, sigh

    Come on now IA252, the GFS at T+384 is absolutely bloody marvellous...and I promise I'll never question it again!😁

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    As Tony used to say... Iiiit's Great!👍🐯

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Aye, for Finland & Northern Norway the Gfs 12z op turns into a cracker..or peach 🍑 ..for the u k..it’s a bit MEH..as usual!!! 😜🥶 ❄️ ️ 😍

    Just think about hairnets, and you'll be okay... It works for me!:drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    UK only ‘mild shield’ in play....changes look like being afoot down the line

     

    BFTP

    Let's hope the change afoot is  a foot of snow BFTP.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    UK only ‘mild shield’ in play....changes look like being afoot down the line

     

    BFTP

    At least post some charts for a change!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Shorter term seems to be trending less boring benign than forecast a couple of days back

    GFS for Thursday early hours

    image.thumb.png.82ca8af399f67195d00615a0cecf4bd2.png

    And ECM for Wed evening

    image.thumb.png.b878af7b360dff0a9a38648aa8fda63b.png

    And ECM for next weekend

    image.thumb.png.89cded69698564d4bc0697eda89cc386.png

    So we might get a few drops of rain in what was looking, 2 or 3 days back, to be a very mild and dry week or more (later in week 2 we might still get to that)

    Not really any convincing signs of cold coming anytime soon

    I noticed from coverage of the US Election there is some incredible warmth in northern cities of the US right now. Exceeding 70F in Boston and Philly

    image.thumb.png.3fe7a878e1ed227e721b36ca865203de.png

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    48 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    At least post some charts for a change!

    Err, have a look at the runs yourself??  I think it would be obvious without the need to post charts

     

    Edit ....they are too horrible to post 😃

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Let's hope the change afoot is  a foot of snow BFTP.

    That would be nice!!

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    On 31/10/2020 at 09:26, Dancerwithwings said:

    0z ECM 10 day mean showing HP slap bang over the UK

    EDM1-240_umh3.GIF

     

    Looking back to the output on the 31st October and what was on offer for this forthcoming coming Tuesday....

    Couldn’t be any further from the truth.

    image.thumb.png.8323ddd71bd4f50d3cb603e9e3beebe7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    At least post some charts for a change!

    Charts are easy to access and sometimes get repetitive. Metiociel is good look. Anyway. Not much change today on the models, settled and a bit mundane. Roll on December hopefully things will liven up and bring us something wintry and interesting🙏🙏

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    But we all (apart from you, Fred) post charts along with our prognostications... Having said that, they (the charts) are all so crap I cannae be bothered!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    But we all (apart from you, Fred) post charts along with our prognostications... Having said that, they (the charts) are all so crap I cannae be bothered!😁

    Agree Ed, this one not bad though, maybe no need for coat for exercise

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2020110812/ECM1-240.GIF?08-0image.thumb.png.7a3f4a8584ddbeba117ca101b3267c02.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Broad similarity to Nov 2015 at this point with record warmth across North America, fast flow across the Atlantic, rising temperatures in early to mid Nov western Europe. This could go on for 6-10 weeks and push any winter hopes back into Feb/Mar. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.4d838ff0ac0bbcb1d06d9a9fadfe2c44.pngimage.thumb.png.a94e775b09c8455024ca0f2d9463f0f6.png

    A little straw to clutch this morning on the ECM? High looks to be starting to pull back west between day 9-10. Could it build north and allow some sort of notherly in the days after?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The mean pv seems to be meandering around and as it drifts from Canada to Siberia, it encourages a westerly surge of the northern arm .......signs in the extended that it may be more Alaskan orientated for a period which could allow for some Atlantic based height rises ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The mean pv seems to be meandering around and as it drifts from Canada to Siberia, it encourages a westerly surge of the northern arm .......signs in the extended that it may be more Alaskan orientated for a period which could allow for some Atlantic based height rises ....

    Certainly possible, but I wouldn't want to be making any guesses going on these day 11-15 clusters today:

    image.thumb.png.3511559b94156cd6970cb5b0f27300fe.png

    Six clusters, with 10/10/9/8/7/7 members. All looking different too. Basically the models haven't got a clue.


    image.thumb.png.929bce4627456c0064c784f1a7e45b54.png

    GFS ensembles showing far more cooler/colder ensemble members into the last 10 days now though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    GFS 850s wise beginning to show a lot more average/cooler runs within the esembles. Obviously too late in the run to take too seriously, but at least we could be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

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