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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well the new 6-10 NOAA 500 mb anomaly repeats last night's chart, funny world we live in! Glad I'm not a forecaster now with all these models about. In my day it was good to get the next day correct

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

 

good night

Here you go John - the output arrived using the following 

8th:

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8

9th :

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8
 

10th:

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 60% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8
 

11th:

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 50% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8

 

it seems that the forecaster decision to use the ec output only has led to the change. It should be noted that forecaster confidence was only 40% rising to 60% today. This is low for 6/10 day cpc output 

 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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Great looking ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight ..as long as you like high pressure! 😉..essentially it’s a predominantly settled outlook for most of the u k although with all the heat and humidity across the south / southeast early next week there’s potential for some thundery activity but for those hoping for a general breakdown to wet & windy autumnal Atlantic weather..you may have to wait a while judging by these charts which  take us into late September and still looks very blocked even at day 10 with considerable power to add...night all.🙂

D57B94F4-6E84-44C9-BD7A-224CF80C2A06.thumb.gif.45801c7ef2131a0e961174923fdd08a2.gifB81E3499-1171-4199-AFB2-AD0F15DE787F.thumb.gif.f67269f08ae0e25e1d0d901b69eaa624.gifAADCE6EE-1576-4195-93E4-8856474C4936.thumb.gif.ba4802457a52a8d214e1c7cafe7655f9.gifFBF01719-49B6-45A7-B4CC-2E69802D4583.thumb.gif.82688a5ac59a3aa8b4401b1d7f62cd1a.gifF3367760-9653-4D77-8B5F-C2252609EBDE.thumb.gif.13862d0595067ae359342d1369ae2f39.gifC5FE5427-CF73-46C0-89FE-8137C8090073.thumb.gif.10fabe3d23c0b3cf5df3049ab51cdbf2.gifF482CF6B-D911-4DAC-821C-D2D22C7D2A4B.thumb.gif.09904e572c530d0500ef5d48c6e7ff5f.gif7E7F0455-A8AC-422E-82AB-E6FCCE442DC5.thumb.gif.8ab8a1d7e4b62b830090508e52f069e1.gifA5EEA594-5914-461A-98AE-9A2E6F1C32F0.thumb.gif.f48cc4b1430e29592ce0d51af980fd74.gif

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4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wed still good!

ukmaxtemp.png

As not all of the members herein live in that nice red area,it could be argued that this post be moved to the regional thread and fairness be consistent,just as many ‘snowfall’ posts in Scotland during the winter months are subject to same moderation.

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29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Here you go John - the output arrived using the following 

8th:

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8

9th :

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8
 

10th:

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 60% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8
 

11th:

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 50% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8

 

it seems that the forecaster decision to use the ec output only has led to the change. It should be noted that forecaster confidence was only 40% rising to 60% today. This is low for 6/10 day cpc output 

Yes I started out using that many years ago but have recently not really looked at it very often. Like any forecast input, not unlike UK Met which I was once part of, you win some, you lose some.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, MildCarlilse said:

As not all of the members herein live in that nice red area,it could be argued that this post be moved to the regional thread and fairness be consistent,just as many ‘snowfall’ posts in Scotland during the winter months are subject to same moderation.

Two thirds of the country at 19 and above. Good for mid September.

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It’s not that surprising to me @johnholmes. No model or human can accurately forecast the global impacts of hurricanes or typhoons at a 10-14 day lead - which is what has caused a marked forecast shift in the upcoming period. I always find September is one of the hardest months to forecast confidently, especially with an extra high level of tropical activity. Fortunately this time the UK has mainly benefitted!

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Always important at this time of year to keep an eye on tropical storm systems. It's an odd season in this respect, we have alot of activity, but systems don't appear to be sustaining themselves, appearing then dissipating it seems, never becoming particularly strong features. Any reason? You would expect with such levels of activity this would override any lengthy blocking episodes as the Atlantic muscles in, but equally I guess they can have the effect of disrupting the zonal flow and aid blocked flows.. I remember back to 2005 though which was a season of major activity, we saw alot of dry anticyclonic weather that Autumn, especially October. 

Back to the models, a spell of late summer on the cards, just an observation but uncanny timings with the switch in mid March just as restrictions were imposed, restrictions back on Monday and the weather flips.. is some computer steering the weather.... 

Just looked through GFS model to the end, way way into fantasy land, but and I will say it, if this was winter..a very cold frosty with bits of snow forecast, propensity for scandi heights then Greenland heights, barely a hint of an Atlantic flow, alas if this was winter chances if verifying zero.. but mmm interesting to note none the less.. sudden flips from Atlantic to continental weather in Autumn I always take note of, this is not a mid Atlantic or UK or euro or azores high scenario.. it's a more fundamental shift..

Edited by damianslaw
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16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s not that surprising to me @johnholmes. No model or human can accurately forecast the global impacts of hurricanes or typhoons at a 10-14 day lead - which is what has caused a marked forecast shift in the upcoming period. I always find September is one of the hardest months to forecast confidently, especially with an extra high level of tropical activity. Fortunately this time the UK has mainly benefitted!

From about late July I have always tempered forecasts with the proviso that any tropical storms that get into the N Atlantic can play havoc with any weather model over any time scale. The amounts of heat and moisture are almost unbelievable that they can release. I do find it a bit surprising though that after over 40 years of computer modelling we are still unable to factor in to the basic physics and maths enough to give a better way of dealing with them once in, say, mid Atlantic.

 

Out of passing interest I've just googled to see what comes up.

No idea how reliable some of these quotes/articles are but interesting to read with your coffee this morning perhaps?

1,000hydrogen bombs is one suggestion?

Anyway try these links

https://www.dw.com/en/hurricanes-release-energy-of-10000-nuclear-bombs/a-40627056

If we crunch the numbers for an average hurricane (1.5 cm/day of rain, circle radius of 665 km), we get a gigantic amount of energy: 6.0 x 10^14 Watts or 5.2 x 10^19 Joules/day! This is equivalent to about 200 times the total electrical generating capacity on the planet!

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/

http://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/hurrpower.pdf

I'll stop there

Edited by johnholmes
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5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

From about late July I have always tempered forecasts with the proviso that any tropical storms that get into the N Atlantic can play havoc with any weather model over any time scale. The amounts of heat and moisture are almost unbelievable that they can release. I do find it a bit surprising though that after over 40 years of computer modelling we are still unable to factor in to the basic physics and maths enough to give a better way of dealing with them once in, say, mid Atlantic.

It's probably because we can't get an accurate picture enough of how moisture and heat they are releasing plus other factors and may never be able to do so. Then perhaps one day we may.

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20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not to long before the silly season begins ~ 2-3 weeks...

06z PtB 13

BC51C343-1244-4CF6-9EF9-DB0B7D229A4B.thumb.jpeg.01e99ab09925926ac6048144f3287fb8.jpeg

 

Holy carp Steve..hmm something fishy about that..😉.. that’s so friggin awesome ( a glancing blow though ) !!...but then these charts, also from the GEFS 6z are preety awesome to..and there’s nothing glancing about them either!!😜🔥

98C8D756-EEFB-4BD1-AB6B-37D586760425.thumb.png.a69a24a348adb627da76d20e1f07c378.png030668AA-EA0D-45AA-AB21-7D0235A525EC.thumb.png.65fa11af75c31140ae2ac70233df8766.png7AD340DE-D94F-4A5D-AE49-6C5B8BE1A13F.thumb.png.52c8f64306e540fb13ff06211d364772.png96053A7B-06FC-49C9-8F84-59C230C80E96.thumb.png.7e3773ca34222dd735934baf77e38160.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Certainly a warm outlook as things stand with the Euro keeping the warmth right through the run. 

spacer.png

Low confidence given that tropical systems re-curving are involved of course.

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Really good GFS run for the majority of the UK.  Summer's going on a high note with plenty of warm weather around for the next week, Tuesday - Thursday will be very warm/hot.  Splendid stuff.

image.thumb.png.7e37c4a987e872b39363332bad3bbac8.pngimage.thumb.png.446dc24950650a3289876c3aab219723.pngimage.thumb.png.a6496685128c594069449bcff20d53ae.png 

Then we start to move towards 'silly season', not long now!

 

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GEM is an HP fest, yes it moves around and sometimes warmer than others, but if it is settled dry you want GEM’s your model:

anim_gvc0.gif

ECM out to T120:

82862D9A-27E7-4E32-AF61-20B38DD3746C.thumb.gif.aec1c886a24a6baf65a783386e6baaa3.gifD8BB6B0A-78FE-4C86-A365-9968DAEC1657.thumb.gif.546c1382908ddf232c6233c6c8053a2e.gif

Think this one might end up a heat fest we will see...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Still checking the CFS runs for December, no point looking at 1 run, here’s the last 5 Z500 anomalies:

304AE7D3-29F9-41AF-9B8E-18A25AAA3AEE.thumb.png.3f526d9ff38f83cbc7a7406c47701603.png7A44CAD0-192D-4782-91AF-C00378566356.thumb.png.6443fc0b83031cdc59072387429912bb.png558009C6-34FA-45D4-80DB-D4DC5C1D2855.thumb.png.0a5ef1451e5262df11a1c1fd0b392da6.png988EE516-7F54-4D08-BD57-70B3627C32FE.thumb.png.48c324e709863fa55da0e7e69b2dffb6.png8629FD2C-4FAD-406E-B7C3-32A8A6C9B7C8.thumb.png.d00a40ebe1cce1d4efe9e5f50069cf59.png

Whilst not as optimistic about winter as I was before the QBO went mammaries up, there does still seem to be a signal for an early winter blast on some of the models, that doesn’t include GloSea5 unfortunately, but there is lots of time left yet....here’s to something interesting to talk about in our 14 day home imprisonments during winter.  

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