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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking 👀 at the Gfs 6z operational, indeed looking 👀 at all the models, there is some exceptionally mild days / nights indicated during the next few weeks, not very mild all the time but more often than not!...on the plus side, it’s very good news for lower heating bills and for the daffodils 🌼  which will be sprouting in early dec...BUT it’s still autumn, ergo I won’t be concerned 😧 unless we are still stuck in this pattern in early / mid December!!!...😁🧐😜🤪

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    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    The interesting thing about these very mild southerly flows with a big block to the east is that. You only need the strength of the westerly energy to weaken a bit to have a very different story develop. It would be a lot more worrying if those Atlantic lows were making it all the way to Moscow.

    ECM 00z wasn’t that mild certainly next few days are, even if you don’t see classic easterly flow a slight continental tug can become much colder. There’s hint of southeasterly, and then maybe more frosty nights, most likely in east..

    FA8F2705-B7D8-4007-A240-BAA402A0AA34.thumb.png.725b5a6418a3acd45860f76cafbe5d00.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    36 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    ECM 00z wasn’t that mild certainly next few days are, even if you don’t see classic easterly flow a slight continental tug can become much colder. There’s hint of southeasterly, and then maybe more frosty nights, most likely in east..

    FA8F2705-B7D8-4007-A240-BAA402A0AA34.thumb.png.725b5a6418a3acd45860f76cafbe5d00.png

    Yes, certainly no extreme November warmth with those numbers.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    This looks a bit more promising. Could send some WAA up towards Greenland 🤔 ps I saw a seagull eating berries and nuts earlier....🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    The record warmth as in serious cold unlikely this Nov.  Latest GFS interesting as new angle of deep LP influence gets added post 8 days.  
     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I trawled all the way through the GFS 12Z, desperately seeking something interesting... And there it is... possible freezing-fog on Day 16!😱

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    That said, we were all wearing t-shirts, on the farm, today... Nae bad for early November!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Not bad pressure anomalies from the cfs as we end Nov and begin Dec. In line with meto updates for the same period. 

    Screenshot_20201106-175400.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    6 hours ago, IDO said:

    I am surprised, as the GFS is consistent with the PV moving towards the Asia-Pacific region in that envelope, so the current forecast of a Euro-high building is the natural response:

    anim_hua8.gif

    I suppose, assuming the GFS is correct, that for late November, what happens next?

    From my POV, in the SE it looks relatively dry and above-average with the upper air flow so a lot better than the usual Atlantic onslaught:

    anim_czz6.gif

    Early days as far as Winter goes...

    Mmm I hope that PV animation doesn't come entirely true. At the end of the run it looks like the vortex is migrating to Eastern Canada, and we all know what happens after that! 

    Must say I do like seeing models animated! Really helps illustrate the ebs and flows of our weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    In a moment of desperation after a boring set of afternoon runs I thought I’d check the ensembles...Surely there’s a few cold runs in there? Perhaps the 12z GFS is a massive mild outlier and the rest are cold?.  

    Nope. It was a cold outlier 😫 🙄

    AD8EF164-FC66-4A76-AE8E-D06A59C0669C.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    The ECM is terrible (the horror show Run) . Get em out the way before winter arrives 🙄. The high over Europe/ Norway / Russia needs to do one ASAP . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    The ECM is terrible (the horror show Run) . Get em out the way before winter arrives 🙄. The high over Europe/ Norway / Russia needs to do one ASAP . 

    E6D191BC-1BC4-4477-9502-1657AC9EECD9.png

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    It’s getting a bit silly now. Multiple days of 850s well over 5c, some above 10c. In the middle of November. That day 10 chart isn’t good at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It’s getting a bit silly now. Multiple days of 850s well over 5c, some above 10c. In the middle of November. That day 10 chart isn’t good at all.

    Thank heavens that’s only a chart for Nov 14th then eh😀. In my 60 years I could probably count on the fingers of one hand the number of times Nov 14th has been cold and I can count on the fingers of no hands the times it’s been snowy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking 👀 at the GEFS 12z mean, the outlook would be blocked / anticyclonic with the Atlantic held at bay and also trending cooler beyond next midweek..hardly the particularly mild longer term outlook some output is suggesting?...the ops seem keen on some Atlantic intrusion but the mean suggests the odds currently favour a more benign largely settled spell for much of the rest of November with probably no shortage of mist / fog  and perhaps some chilly nights?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

    The ECM is terrible (the horror show Run) . Get em out the way before winter arrives

    No they'll just continue 🙂, it's amazing the continuous flow for a number of days from North Africa all the way up to the Barents Sea on the ecm run...if this was summer it would be scorchio!🔥

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    I trawled all the way through the GFS 12Z, desperately seeking something interesting... And there it is... possible freezing-fog on Day 16!😱

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    That said, we were all wearing t-shirts, on the farm, today... Nae bad for early November!

    Phew.....I'm glad we're not clutching at straws! 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Northallerton, N Yorks
  • Location: Northallerton, N Yorks

    I can think of worse ECM charts.  At least there's no raging zonality with a powerful polar vortex forecast. 

    One would hope that a prolonged period of southerlies in the UK's vicinity (as forecast) would result in WAA into northern latitudes and place some stress on the vortex. That's the hope!!

    As an aside,  I can't remember such a projected period of southerlies in recent Novembers. (Or is my memory failing??). Maybe, just maybe,  this winter will deliver some long awaited cold.

    David 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

    The ECM is terrible (the horror show Run) . Get em out the way before winter arrives 🙄. The high over Europe/ Norway / Russia needs to do one ASAP . 

    E6D191BC-1BC4-4477-9502-1657AC9EECD9.png

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    I’m not sure about this.  That high can put pressure on the vortex that can help us down the line in December, which is really when most want the cold.  

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I’m not sure about this.  That high can put pressure on the vortex that can help us down the line in December

    December 2013 just called and said "That's what you think"

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    I’m not sure about this.  That high can put pressure on the vortex that can help us down the line in December, which is really when most want the cold.  

    Yer I know what your saying mike but we’ve  been hearing these kind of things for a few years now . Putting pressure on the pv etc . It never seems to get us anywhere tho ? It’s the same every year now the pv is slow at kicking into gear and we think this could be a good chance but come mid December in ramps right up and it’s good night for most of winter . There now just seems to be a delay in the pv strengthening instead of really ramping up in November it takes until mid December to get going and that then rights off the rest dec and Jan and then we’re left with feb if we get lucky enough to break the pv down . 🙂

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    6 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    I trawled all the way through the GFS 12Z, desperately seeking something interesting... And there it is... possible freezing-fog on Day 16!😱

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    That said, we were all wearing t-shirts, on the farm, today... Nae bad for early November!

    How are you able to tell that this particular set up could lead to freezing fog ? I have an interest in freezing fog as a weather phenomenon but can never seem to get clear answers as to why certain synoptic conditions produce freezing fog as opposed to just a clear night of very low minima. People tell me fog is produced by heat radiating into a clear sky at night, but if that were the case, fog would occur every clear night in winter! Which it doesn't. I know this is probably the wrong thread to ask but seeing as though you mentioned something specific in this chart that would lead specifically to freezing fog rather than just a freezing cold clear night - what is it exactly? 

    Thanks 

    Edited by Atleastitwillbemild
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    My God, the ECM 240 chart is so bad it is almost laughable, I have seen hundreds of very bad winter synoptics in my 60years but that ECM is difficult to beat. Its a long ,long way to anything cold from there.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Yes amazing how high pressure is dominating again as we head into late Autumn winter, in the WRONG position if your want cold, either that or we will get raging zonality instead during the Winter. Give up 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    33 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Yes amazing how high pressure is dominating again as we head into late Autumn winter, in the WRONG position if your want cold, either that or we will get raging zonality instead during the Winter. Give up 

    GFS 0z looks quite good to me in terms of vortex attack during the mid part of the run. By the end you can see the shorter term effects on the jet- very meridional all around the hemisphere.

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    30 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Yes amazing how high pressure is dominating again as we head into late Autumn winter, in the WRONG position if your want cold, either that or we will get raging zonality instead during the Winter. Give up 

    For years now I keep alluding to look east as much as west.Where are now these ramps about EC blocked anomalies? The path where this month is going is exactly the same as last two novembers if you look at anomalies. This Sceuro/western Russia high is ultimate killer.Doesnt offer any strat pertuberations either despite some people claiming this Euro high is good long term,no its not!

    archivesnh-2018-11-11-0-0.png

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