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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    7 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Well a number on here and the ec seasonals a couple of weeks back were pointing to an 'interesting' November with positive MSLP towards Greenland/Iceland...just a reminder 🙂

    Perhaps. I'm not trawling through all the pages...but my memory is that late November and into December was the call - anything earlier, given impact of spiking AAM, would have been a bonus. Certainly no change to my own position. Winter wont engage (if it is going to) until the last week of November.

    Model evidence? I posted the ECM weekly mean anomaly a few days ago for the end of the month. We now have ECMWF extended mean guidance for week of 7th - 14th Dec. Here is the current anomaly for that week

    image.thumb.png.8848d1f2521447780f62ef24a6831c6b.png

    ...and the previous week still looks like this

    image.thumb.png.dfca45f033f4312e25c7b5ddbec0282a.png

    Nothing wrong with these at all at such a very long lead time. 

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I'm looking forward to the warmth over the coming days!! 🤩

    ECM1-72.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    31 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    I'm looking forward to the warmth over the coming days!! 🤩

    ECM1-72.gif

    I can't see any warmth in that chart... unless you have some major UHI effect in your area?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    41 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    I'm looking forward to the warmth over the coming days!! 🤩

    ECM1-72.gif

    Aye, shorts out for quarantine exercise walks

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    48 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    I'm looking forward to the warmth over the coming days!! 🤩

    ECM1-72.gif

    Me too Zak..Pwahhhh just look 👀 at those uppers on the ECM 12z op..🔥🧐😎magical init!😍🤪😜

    9A032B5C-FEE8-4181-8351-94392E22865F.thumb.png.9ec989bc9a673ac62674e55791bbf2b2.png081F4938-F993-4A7F-A763-8665302DF275.thumb.png.48bccf092140ee23293f9870c6eff81a.pngE72CAD94-C33D-4EEE-88BB-F49F29C75D7F.thumb.png.6c35b2a8867402c54c224b0a3b775957.pngBEBA14B6-2D5C-4674-AF3B-A48025E06DE0.thumb.png.cdafe1918d55408f2d1b6f9fa5959191.png4F931EA6-26E0-46A8-981C-5AA68759516D.thumb.png.68ac9084d7dc62feb8e42bfa9ebb688e.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I can't see any warmth in that chart... unless you have some major UHI effect in your area?

    It looks quite pleasant in the south. 🙂

    download (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    It looks quite pleasant in the south. 🙂

    download (1).png

    That's not too bad i suppose, but i think there's going be a bit of rain on Sunday.

    Saturday looks dry though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Gee whizzerooni, these charts look spiffing... for July!👀

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Gee whizzerooni, these charts look spiffing... for July!👀

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Bloody cold for july still though, 1035 sea level pressure with only 570 heights!!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    The step away from a colder blocked outlook last evening was considerable but we move on and as someone has said elsewhere, cold weather in mid November isn't that important - we want to see it in mid-December onward.

    So, to tonight's NH profiles at T+240:

    ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control respectively:

    image.thumb.png.451922c4dbcb0976c8514dc3da79acea.pngimage.thumb.png.91455f95dab3683cb093375453c7abdd.pngimage.thumb.png.116f7c69bafc8ef8b9bb154ccb52ce74.pngimage.thumb.png.17ae090531b6b0cc64c4e4f7419b8bdb.png

    Fairly broad agreement to this observer but while some may feel the charts don't show much, I beg to differ. ECM, GEM and GFS Control all have a large storm moving over the Pole and to the north of Siberia. This seems to take a significant chunk of PV energy and what's left is weakened by this - the response further into FI is to allow the HP over SE Europe to move back north toward Scandinavia. GFS OP is perhaps least favourable to this scenario keeping plenty of energy over Greenland but the other models keep reasonable heights to the NE of the British Isles.

    The outlook toward mid-November seems quite benign - dry for many with chilly nights and reasonable days.

    As a thought, we've often had the Azores HP setting up close to the UK in November but at the moment it's not a player which may offer some hope down the line for amplification but it's a waiting game as usual.

    Edited by stodge
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I'm not overly fussed about the Euro high scenario....

    I would have preferred a Scandy high but for the time being at least ...unlikely..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    November is not a month renowned for being particularly benign, its often a very wet month, boisterous winds. Alas the models are painting a very quiet picture through until mid-month, not much happening, atlantic is blocked, instead we have a southerly airflow in the main, bringing mild conditions, perhaps some misty foggy weather at times, and light showery rain or drizzle.

    All a bit humdrum, hoping we can get some sunshine at times, but it looks a predominantly cloudy affair which reduces any chance of frost from the weekend on. 

    The weather in the days ahead probably best sums up much of 2020 this year - 'on hold, static'.

    Hoping we can shift and move things along again not too distant future.

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    2 hours ago, stodge said:

    Evening all 🙂

    The step away from a colder blocked outlook last evening was considerable but we move on and as someone has said elsewhere, cold weather in mid November isn't that important - we want to see it in mid-December onward.

    So, to tonight's NH profiles at T+240:

    ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control respectively:

    image.thumb.png.451922c4dbcb0976c8514dc3da79acea.pngimage.thumb.png.91455f95dab3683cb093375453c7abdd.pngimage.thumb.png.116f7c69bafc8ef8b9bb154ccb52ce74.pngimage.thumb.png.17ae090531b6b0cc64c4e4f7419b8bdb.png

    Fairly broad agreement to this observer but while some may feel the charts don't show much, I beg to differ. ECM, GEM and GFS Control all have a large storm moving over the Pole and to the north of Siberia. This seems to take a significant chunk of PV energy and what's left is weakened by this - the response further into FI is to allow the HP over SE Europe to move back north toward Scandinavia. GFS OP is perhaps least favourable to this scenario keeping plenty of energy over Greenland but the other models keep reasonable heights to the NE of the British Isles.

    The outlook toward mid-November seems quite benign - dry for many with chilly nights and reasonable days.

    As a thought, we've often had the Azores HP setting up close to the UK in November but at the moment it's not a player which may offer some hope down the line for amplification but it's a waiting game as usual.

    I'm personally not too fussed about the milder temps next few weeks. There appears to be not much rain on the cards which I'm thankful. And if this big blocking high to the nee and urals/ect can force a wave up later in the month,I'm happy.

    At least it's not Atlantic wind n rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Never mind 'wake me up when September ends' , 'Wake me up when November ends', and with that I think I will do just that in all ways but one.. never a phrase more apt right now, slumber static state. Roll on December please...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    The weather in the days ahead probably best sums up much of 2020 this year - 'on hold, static'.

    I think this year can be summed up as 'each months in the wrong order'. We had November in February, June & July in April & May, August in June, September in July, July in September and now the models are throwing up what would be some enviable synoptics in summer, let alone November. A stronger anticyclonic influence off the continent and we'd at least cop some sunshine, more oomph in the Atlantic and we'd have weather more akin to a week ago. Instead - stuck in the middle.

    Fingers crossed for a wiggle in the outlook in the days to come.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    7 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

    You know the models are bad when there’s a page of posts about berries, nuts and various indexes rather than any models 🤣 I saw a flock of sea gulls the other day if that helps 🤷🏻‍♂️

    And you know it's really bad when the mods can't even be bothered to move posts/tell people off! 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    14 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

    And you know it's really bad when the mods can't even be bothered to move posts/tell people off! 😂

    I was even reading this thread earlier, but wasn’t in the mood to do anything about it. Sure need to set a better example 🙊😅

    Alright guys, you’re getting a telling off! Behave please and make sure your posts are about the models. And you better listen to the red line, or I might have to do something about it. 😛

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good morning peeps... GFS 00Z here. Loads and loads of cause for excitement. Or excrement!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    A good day for stocking-up on Acme Turd Polisher?💩

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Morning,

    Nothing much changes today. ECM and UKMO are showing a brief unsettled incursion as a low moves across the UK next Thursday:

    image.thumb.png.cc513e86f991af4e0f5aa86f3760eff7.pngimage.thumb.png.aafd537bcfe0547345b3a6f43f500c40.png


    Thereafter, it's another reboot of the southerly feed that looks like setting up. This is the ECM at day 8/9/10:

    image.thumb.png.d1f4513c12cdd68f0e82d84d35868bca.pngimage.thumb.png.1b0c84b4cf3904dd3908c0ce9da132c0.pngimage.thumb.png.3dcb0e57c9ad644c3cdccaf30f69ea54.png

    GEM and GFS day 10 below are remarkably similar to the ECM, so good confidence in the direction of travel at the moment.

    image.thumb.png.5de5563856bc08618bf4ebc3a6d9061f.pngimage.thumb.png.a85cf9003e98aa203042e3b30b0a4ab4.png


    I've been posting the last few days that the CET is going to skyrocket to levels far above normal. This still looks the case today.

     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    This tweet sums it up. Over 3c above normal by the last 10 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    This tweet sums it up. Over 3c above normal by the last 10 days.

    Yes its common for SE Europe to be cold with a Euro high in play ...no surprises there...

    The longer range Exeter updates suggest these heights across Europe will move north so as ever,its a watching brief...

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    Wouldn't worry about temperatures at this point.  November 2019 was colder than average but the winter that followed was, well, garbage.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.9a8ee98b3fb5faafaa0d56af51664e8d.png

    Day 11-15 clusters have much more spread than recently today - with 6 different options. With that much noise it's very hard to know what will play out. The largest cluster at the top (only by a slither mind you) shows a proper Scandi high. Some power the Atlantic through as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    More heat records were smashed yesterday night in Norway..

    According to the last model outputs we are heading towards a warm record breaking November!

    It will be interesting to see correlations between a very warm November and the rest of the winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.9a8ee98b3fb5faafaa0d56af51664e8d.png

    Day 11-15 clusters have much more spread than recently today - with 6 different options. With that much noise it's very hard to know what will play out. The largest cluster at the top (only by a slither mind you) shows a proper Scandi high. Some power the Atlantic through as well.

    I am surprised, as the GFS is consistent with the PV moving towards the Asia-Pacific region in that envelope, so the current forecast of a Euro-high building is the natural response:

    anim_hua8.gif

    I suppose, assuming the GFS is correct, that for late November, what happens next?

    From my POV, in the SE it looks relatively dry and above-average with the upper air flow so a lot better than the usual Atlantic onslaught:

    anim_czz6.gif

    Early days as far as Winter goes...

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