Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    No changes in the short to mid term this morning.

    Still looking well above average out to the middle of November on all models. GFS ensembles have a slight cooling trend towards week 3, with a few colder runs appearing.

    image.thumb.png.a2ffa4ec70a8efcea1ed84f2fe1ccf47.png
     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Longer term ECM clusters are all going for a Scandi blocking high of sorts:

    image.thumb.png.c1351aefb701e66d781115f36448f23e.png

    Always in with a sniff with a Scandi high around!
     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just had a look at the overnight models (Gfs / Ecm 0z) and with winds from the SSW/S/SSE/SE it becomes generally mild / very mild with little or no frost, some fine spells but equally some rain at times, especially further west...great news for the daffodils!😜

    Edited by Jon Snow
    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Aha, the jolly GFS at T+384:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I'll be happy should the PV still be raggedy, come mid-December. Then I'll start to get excited. Not now, though!:cold-emoji:

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    mid November signals a point in the year where continental cold pools can sustain themselves, even when the cold source has been cut off. Should lower the DPs nicely across the continent and bring down ground temps.

    Excellent point - we've had some good easterly setups in recent years.... where Europe has been warm 🙄.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z at T+144... two potentially nice HP areas, that'll need to stay put, until December...? Split vortex?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Bugger! I was just about to reply to @Don's post... but The Phantom's up-and-about already!😁

    Edited by General Cluster
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    4 minutes ago, Don said:

    Looks like my 6.7C guess for November could be a bust already!  Time for a turnaround mind.  Anyway, I would rather have a mild November followed by a cold December rather than the other way!

    Tell me about it...In my mind we were either going to have the continuation of near the 1961-90 CET series or it was going to be mild ala July (coolish) into August (much warmer). Fooled by shortish to mid-term modelling I'm afraid and no signs for the 1st half of this month of positive MSLP anomalies towards Iceland/Greenland as forecast by ec seasonals.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    15 hours ago, booferking said:

    Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..😉

    It was nice to see this for few outlier runs,but its back to reality today even for central Europe, I keep saying about the need of a trigger low otherwise this will end up more of a Sceuro high with cold out of reach. GFS 6Z is quite pathetic

    gfsnh-0-240.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    So basically the play out as yesterday with 0z being more blocky and the 06z being more progressive.

    If anything interesting is to happen you really want it after midmonth anyway which ties in with the 15-30 day extended forecast .

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    1 hour ago, jules216 said:

    It was nice to see this for few outlier runs,but its back to reality today even for central Europe, I keep saying about the need of a trigger low otherwise this will end up more of a Sceuro high with cold out of reach. GFS 6Z is quite pathetic

    gfsnh-0-240.png

    Fair enough but it was the ecm i quoted you not the gfs and the trend is for a more blocky outlook heading to mid month and the possibility of the high to shift west metoffice onboard and the gfs 6z worst verification of the lot.

    By the way that's a decent 144hr ukmo best of this morning runs.

    ECH1-216.gif

    ECH0-240.gif

    UN144-21.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    I said the other day there is always one GFS run per day that sends Atlantic in overdrive, it's normal practice. Trouble with GFS too many runs, too much margin for error and inconsistency, the difference between 0z and 6z run couldn't be more different, case in point. 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    16 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Fair enough but it was the ecm i quoted you not the gfs and the trend is for a more blocky outlook heading to mid month and the possibility of the high to shift west metoffice onboard and the gfs 6z worst verification of the lot.

    By the way that's a decent 144hr ukmo best of this morning runs.

    ECH1-216.gif

    ECH0-240.gif

    UN144-21.gif

    That Met Office chart is a corker with heights looking good right over the pole. However, I remember the Dec 2012 Scandi High/E'ly-that-never-was debacle and will remain conscious of that

    Although it is encouraging that the Met Office are seeing cold late Nov/early Dec too I guess

    This is completely unscientific and I don't know if I'm imagining it but it seems to me that Greenland Highs are better forecast by all models than Scandi Highs. Whether that is true or not I don't know but that's my perception. All it takes is a slight underestimation of the strength of the northern jet by the computers and, once corrected, Scandi Highs are then modelled to either quickly collapse or not become a reality at all. As I say, I could be completely making that up

    Edited by LRD
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    15 minutes ago, LRD said:

    That Met Office chart is a corker with heights looking good right over the pole. However, I remember the Dec 2012 Scandi High/E'ly-that-never-was debacle and will remain conscious of that

    Although it is encouraging that the Met Office are seeing cold late Nov/early Dec too I guess

    This is completely unscientific and I don't know if I'm imagining it but it seems to me that Greenland Highs are better forecast by all models than Scandi Highs. Whether that is true or not I don't know but that's my perception. All it takes is a slight underestimation of the strength of the northern jet by the computers and, once corrected, Scandi Highs are then modelled to either quickly collapse or not become a reality at all. As I say, I could be completely making that up

    I thought that too. Perhaps it's the fact that Greenland is a more stable area and generally isn't on the receiving end of the Atlantic Jet - probably easier for models to grasp since there are less variables / influencers. 

     

    I remember in January 2016 after that record breaking December models predicting a Scandi high with some what would have been welcome cold weather. Then at the last moment a hurricane decided to make an appearance and ousted the high right into Russia. And that was it for the rest of that winter 😞

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For sure there are some close encounters with significant cold within the GEFS 6z...even some snaw!..and the mean does support something colder from the east around the mid month period! 🥶 ❄️ 😜🧐
    552CCAFB-B768-4703-9518-2AE685376166.thumb.jpeg.588ff1b73bde3125f5fd127ee5fd14bd.jpegA80E2907-F112-4B6F-A9C9-178794B00720.thumb.jpeg.29564a2860b8a9fe9df7f9c64efd7a3e.jpeg9EBBFFA3-55CB-4479-8AE9-D9BDDBE79353.thumb.jpeg.17d157f436373f25119ea1141391b3a3.jpegCA031AC2-A4E3-499D-8B8C-A1172777B57F.thumb.jpeg.37161c440938ef533a1bc2bca95ae669.jpeg5FFD6AE8-DFEA-40A4-947E-0E82B794DF40.thumb.jpeg.a0068d6a0dbccb883518d819fa402b57.jpeg33414F15-14A6-45D9-9DA6-8374C0E692AA.thumb.jpeg.aa9f7773aeddb9318fa8ebdd1cc84bef.jpeg

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    For sure there are some close encounters with significant cold within the GEFS 6z...even some snaw!..and the mean does support something colder from the east around the mid month period! 🥶 ❄️ 😜🧐
    552CCAFB-B768-4703-9518-2AE685376166.thumb.jpeg.588ff1b73bde3125f5fd127ee5fd14bd.jpegA80E2907-F112-4B6F-A9C9-178794B00720.thumb.jpeg.29564a2860b8a9fe9df7f9c64efd7a3e.jpeg9EBBFFA3-55CB-4479-8AE9-D9BDDBE79353.thumb.jpeg.17d157f436373f25119ea1141391b3a3.jpegCA031AC2-A4E3-499D-8B8C-A1172777B57F.thumb.jpeg.37161c440938ef533a1bc2bca95ae669.jpeg5FFD6AE8-DFEA-40A4-947E-0E82B794DF40.thumb.jpeg.a0068d6a0dbccb883518d819fa402b57.jpeg33414F15-14A6-45D9-9DA6-8374C0E692AA.thumb.jpeg.aa9f7773aeddb9318fa8ebdd1cc84bef.jpeg

     

    If only Steven Spielberg were in charge of the GFS!👍

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    15 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    For sure there are some close encounters with significant cold within the GEFS 6z...even some snaw!..and the mean does support something colder from the east around the mid month period! 🥶 ❄️ 😜🧐
    552CCAFB-B768-4703-9518-2AE685376166.thumb.jpeg.588ff1b73bde3125f5fd127ee5fd14bd.jpegA80E2907-F112-4B6F-A9C9-178794B00720.thumb.jpeg.29564a2860b8a9fe9df7f9c64efd7a3e.jpeg9EBBFFA3-55CB-4479-8AE9-D9BDDBE79353.thumb.jpeg.17d157f436373f25119ea1141391b3a3.jpegCA031AC2-A4E3-499D-8B8C-A1172777B57F.thumb.jpeg.37161c440938ef533a1bc2bca95ae669.jpeg5FFD6AE8-DFEA-40A4-947E-0E82B794DF40.thumb.jpeg.a0068d6a0dbccb883518d819fa402b57.jpeg33414F15-14A6-45D9-9DA6-8374C0E692AA.thumb.jpeg.aa9f7773aeddb9318fa8ebdd1cc84bef.jpeg

     

    I’m loving 26.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    2 hours ago, booferking said:

    Fair enough but it was the ecm i quoted you not the gfs and the trend is for a more blocky outlook heading to mid month and the possibility of the high to shift west metoffice onboard and the gfs 6z worst verification of the lot.

    By the way that's a decent 144hr ukmo best of this morning runs.

    ECH1-216.gif

    ECH0-240.gif

    UN144-21.gif

    I know there is still a small chance this particular episode can still come across to me in Slovakia as some ensembles suggest.I hate those sinking heighs though so much.At least there will be frost under that high

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And here's the MetO's take on just how the models are shaping up... Gloomy, aye -- but at least it'll be mild!😱

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Pretty unremarkable set of 12z runs so far - mild, mild and milder sums it up. A long stretch of southerly based winds. Where was this pattern in July?!
     

    If the second half of the month doesn’t cool down significantly, this is going up end up in the all time November list. From Saturday onwards we’ve got a fair run of 10c+ CET days coming up. Anything above 8.7c is a top 10 month.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Pretty unremarkable set of 12z runs so far - mild, mild and milder sums it up. A long stretch of southerly based winds. Where was this pattern in July?!
     

    If the second half of the month doesn’t cool down significantly, this is going up end up in the all time November list. From Saturday onwards we’ve got a fair run of 10c+ CET days coming up. Anything above 8.7c is a top 10 month.

    Yes it seems we're heading to "ranksville" today after things looked OK previous couple of days. Not great signs from the met ete. PV looks likely to blow up also via zonal wind increase ao - nao. Early days tho suck it and see time 😏😏

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Pretty unremarkable set of 12z runs so far - mild, mild and milder sums it up. A long stretch of southerly based winds. Where was this pattern in July?!
     

    If the second half of the month doesn’t cool down significantly, this is going up end up in the all time November list. From Saturday onwards we’ve got a fair run of 10c+ CET days coming up. Anything above 8.7c is a top 10 month.

    T264 mean. Looks ok to me. Whether a run is “good” or “bad”  it’s just one run.👍

    EC511E00-7911-4A30-B0E7-7F7866887057.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    T264 mean. Looks ok to me. Whether a run is “good” or “bad”  it’s just one run.👍

    EC511E00-7911-4A30-B0E7-7F7866887057.png

    It’s a bit on the edge - we’re quite close to the high and low boundaries. A shift either way could mean continued very mild, or pretty cold with easterly winds setting in. I’d say the milder outcome is favoured at the moment, but certainly one to watch!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Settled, dry spell continues as daytime temperatures edge up a degree or so

      The risk of frost continues and it is chilly out of the sunshine but the fine, dry spell continues this week as the temperatures creep up, closer to average rather than below as they have been. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      2021 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Outlook

      Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Read the full article

      BornFromTheVoid
      BornFromTheVoid
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...