Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

Nasty little feature progged for the South early tomorrow morning on the latest GFS Winter over view chart. A parcel of cold air (528 dam )  associated with -in its wrap around. May give a slight covering on the higher ground, possibly Chilterns. Our own snow portal service has picked up this as well in the last report , 1-2 cm is possible.

C

winteroverview_20201102_00_030.jpg

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

UKV has picked this up also with some sleet/wet snow up over the south Welsh mountains, SW moors and tiny bits showing on the chilterns, although no accumulations being shown by the model. There's also some over the Scottish mountains, with some accumulating snow there. 

ukv1.png ukv2.png ukv3.png

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.ce7b2cb67ba26935fab393de79b69061.png

The day 10-15 clusters don't look particularly cold @bluearmy. The larger cluster is mainly westerly based. The slightly smaller cluster looks more promising.

The binary nature of those clusters makes the mean pretty irrelevant ...

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The binary nature of those clusters makes the mean pretty irrelevant ...

21 is a decent number though going for some sort of continental flow albeit nothing there to suggest copious amounts of snow or anything like that with the high not being far enough North for that and it only being Nov anyway.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

21 is a decent number though going for some sort of continental flow albeit nothing there to suggest copious amounts of snow or anything like that with the high not being far enough North for that and it only being Nov anyway.

and its a retrogressive evolution from day 10 with the likelihood of some undercutting. however, the current mood music is not strong in this direction although time for it to swing back

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

GFS going for low pressure to take over from the SW around Friday or Saturday and continue.

will ECM change from continued high pressure to GFS changeable Atlantic low pressure systems.

still some uncertainty around,follow fax charts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Nasty little feature progged for the South early tomorrow morning on the latest GFS Winter over view chart. A parcel of cold air (528 dam )  associated with -in its wrap around. May give a slight covering on the higher ground, possibly Chilterns. Our own snow portal service has picked up this as well in the last report , 1-2 cm is possible.

C

winteroverview_20201102_00_030.jpg

No chance. You're not going to get snow with temps and dew points of 3-4C at the lowest, which is what the GFS is showing. The Chilterns only go up to 267m.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

That would be perturbation 6. Quite the chart.

gens-6-1-324.thumb.png.3790563034cf3b8d84d1993eb730eb0c.png   gens-6-0-324.thumb.png.91d28789ee3c935670ce982d44ae08fb.png

Quite the chart indeed, but as expected at this range the spread on the ensemble is quite wide and the op is close the average.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the 12 z gfs brings a great easterly flow at day ten😁well its for svalbard but still a cracker👍👍👍

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nick L said:

No chance. You're not going to get snow with temps and dew points of 3-4C at the lowest, which is what the GFS is showing. The Chilterns only go up to 267m.

I would not say no chance but would agree not likely with DP of 3-4C. Of course in the time span of only 2 to 3 hours  , especially with temporary movement of cold air as associated with the disturbance across Southern Britain early tomorrow, heavy precipitation can lower the DP close to 0c for a short time as per chart below.

C

GFSOPUK12_12_10.png

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Want to see more of what the gfs12 is showing from all the models in the coming days,but more blocking over greenland and Iceland would be welcome.Dont want too see ZONAL dominating the charts again this winter.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Better looking ec to my untrained eye. Blocking a bit stronger and a bit further north. Could be nothing but it's a start 👍

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Better looking ec to my untrained eye. Blocking a bit stronger and a bit further north. Could be nothing but it's a start 👍

Yes,just watching out for that re-curve  backing SW/W out of Scandi,it wasn't there on the 00z

ECE1-192.thumb.png.f03506db4dc52d0dd3e9e559c43a0707.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.8d4cdfc4f3fd650b48a525afd35833dc.pngi tested my paint.net skills and they failed. This chart would be better than the one that's actually out though .

image.thumb.png.ccba57525894b4abb975427e18dfd748.png

Edited by hamilton and weather fan 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,just watching out for that re-curve  backing SW/W out of Scandi,it wasn't there on the 00z

ECE1-192.thumb.png.f03506db4dc52d0dd3e9e559c43a0707.png

 

Dosnt quite make it but a big improvement on the nhp from ec 👍

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

spacer.png 12th Nov ECM 12z

 

spacer.png 17th Nov GFS 12z

 

Lots of High Pressure in the right sort of place ( whether is is the ECM at 240 or the GFS later at 360 )

Plenty of blocking potential over the mid Nov period and a good chance for us to dry out a bit ( hopefully some frosts too )

 

 

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite alot of changes in the models at the moment, so look with caution beyond the 5-6 day timeframe, but the theme remains the same, high pressure to our east and a trough to our west but coming unstuck somewhat, also heights want to lower to our SW as expected this weekend a clear sign the jet perhaps is wanting to split, then it depends on where energy is transferred, initially more on the northern arm, but longer term possibly more to the south which would be the trigger to any easterly shot and thereafter atlantic pressure build.

Could ne a major switcharound in the pressure pattern mid-month a complete flip from atlantic trough and scand/euro high to atlantic ridge and scandi trough.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Evening all 🙂

As the stratosphere thread becomes more animated, are we looking at a more "interesting" spell of mid-autumn weather? Looking at the T+240 NH profiles for mid-month tonight:

12Z ECM, GFS OP and GEM:

image.thumb.png.2e8a1b8ac20f868dd969cb474bcc9e54.pngimage.thumb.png.6d4e06be86a93401e9c264f285de96a7.pngimage.thumb.png.e224ac98422f3971636c4b10307ff5da.png

I'm not seeing the optimism for a change others are. For a second successive evening, the PV seems to remain entrenched in its usual place. Perhaps a hint of the vortex moving back over Canada and that may be enough to encourage height rises over Scandinavia (and GFS OP takes that much further in FI bringing the Russian HP west as a significant blocking feature).  The question of whether we'll get s genuine HLB or a variation on the MLB remains to be resolved. 

There seems too much energy in the northern arm on ECM to sustain true HLB. We really need to see some energy swinging south to help support the HP otherwise it will inevitable sink south over eastern and central Europe. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...