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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Not the best 6 z gfs tbh. Bit of a collapse of pressure. Probably least said soonest mended 😙😙😙

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.ce7b2cb67ba26935fab393de79b69061.png

    The day 10-15 clusters don't look particularly cold @bluearmy. The larger cluster is mainly westerly based. The slightly smaller cluster looks more promising.

    The binary nature of those clusters makes the mean pretty irrelevant ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    The binary nature of those clusters makes the mean pretty irrelevant ...

    21 is a decent number though going for some sort of continental flow albeit nothing there to suggest copious amounts of snow or anything like that with the high not being far enough North for that and it only being Nov anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    21 is a decent number though going for some sort of continental flow albeit nothing there to suggest copious amounts of snow or anything like that with the high not being far enough North for that and it only being Nov anyway.

    and its a retrogressive evolution from day 10 with the likelihood of some undercutting. however, the current mood music is not strong in this direction although time for it to swing back

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
    5 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

    GFS going for low pressure to take over from the SW around Friday or Saturday and continue.

    will ECM change from continued high pressure to GFS changeable Atlantic low pressure systems.

    still some uncertainty around,follow fax charts.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    5 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Nasty little feature progged for the South early tomorrow morning on the latest GFS Winter over view chart. A parcel of cold air (528 dam )  associated with -in its wrap around. May give a slight covering on the higher ground, possibly Chilterns. Our own snow portal service has picked up this as well in the last report , 1-2 cm is possible.

    C

    winteroverview_20201102_00_030.jpg

    No chance. You're not going to get snow with temps and dew points of 3-4C at the lowest, which is what the GFS is showing. The Chilterns only go up to 267m.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    That would be perturbation 6. Quite the chart.

    gens-6-1-324.thumb.png.3790563034cf3b8d84d1993eb730eb0c.png   gens-6-0-324.thumb.png.91d28789ee3c935670ce982d44ae08fb.png

    Quite the chart indeed, but as expected at this range the spread on the ensemble is quite wide and the op is close the average.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Well the 12 z gfs brings a great easterly flow at day ten😁well its for svalbard but still a cracker👍👍👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    1 hour ago, Nick L said:

    No chance. You're not going to get snow with temps and dew points of 3-4C at the lowest, which is what the GFS is showing. The Chilterns only go up to 267m.

    I would not say no chance but would agree not likely with DP of 3-4C. Of course in the time span of only 2 to 3 hours  , especially with temporary movement of cold air as associated with the disturbance across Southern Britain early tomorrow, heavy precipitation can lower the DP close to 0c for a short time as per chart below.

    C

    GFSOPUK12_12_10.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Decent fi on gfs 12z easterly dragging it's heels towards the UK. As they say baby steps😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Want to see more of what the gfs12 is showing from all the models in the coming days,but more blocking over greenland and Iceland would be welcome.Dont want too see ZONAL dominating the charts again this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Better looking ec to my untrained eye. Blocking a bit stronger and a bit further north. Could be nothing but it's a start 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Better looking ec to my untrained eye. Blocking a bit stronger and a bit further north. Could be nothing but it's a start 👍

    Yes,just watching out for that re-curve  backing SW/W out of Scandi,it wasn't there on the 00z

    ECE1-192.thumb.png.f03506db4dc52d0dd3e9e559c43a0707.png

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.8d4cdfc4f3fd650b48a525afd35833dc.pngi tested my paint.net skills and they failed. This chart would be better than the one that's actually out though .

    image.thumb.png.ccba57525894b4abb975427e18dfd748.png

    Edited by hamilton and weather fan 1
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Yes,just watching out for that re-curve  backing SW/W out of Scandi,it wasn't there on the 00z

    ECE1-192.thumb.png.f03506db4dc52d0dd3e9e559c43a0707.png

     

    Dosnt quite make it but a big improvement on the nhp from ec 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.png 12th Nov ECM 12z

     

    spacer.png 17th Nov GFS 12z

     

    Lots of High Pressure in the right sort of place ( whether is is the ECM at 240 or the GFS later at 360 )

    Plenty of blocking potential over the mid Nov period and a good chance for us to dry out a bit ( hopefully some frosts too )

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quite alot of changes in the models at the moment, so look with caution beyond the 5-6 day timeframe, but the theme remains the same, high pressure to our east and a trough to our west but coming unstuck somewhat, also heights want to lower to our SW as expected this weekend a clear sign the jet perhaps is wanting to split, then it depends on where energy is transferred, initially more on the northern arm, but longer term possibly more to the south which would be the trigger to any easterly shot and thereafter atlantic pressure build.

    Could ne a major switcharound in the pressure pattern mid-month a complete flip from atlantic trough and scand/euro high to atlantic ridge and scandi trough.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    As the stratosphere thread becomes more animated, are we looking at a more "interesting" spell of mid-autumn weather? Looking at the T+240 NH profiles for mid-month tonight:

    12Z ECM, GFS OP and GEM:

    image.thumb.png.2e8a1b8ac20f868dd969cb474bcc9e54.pngimage.thumb.png.6d4e06be86a93401e9c264f285de96a7.pngimage.thumb.png.e224ac98422f3971636c4b10307ff5da.png

    I'm not seeing the optimism for a change others are. For a second successive evening, the PV seems to remain entrenched in its usual place. Perhaps a hint of the vortex moving back over Canada and that may be enough to encourage height rises over Scandinavia (and GFS OP takes that much further in FI bringing the Russian HP west as a significant blocking feature).  The question of whether we'll get s genuine HLB or a variation on the MLB remains to be resolved. 

    There seems too much energy in the northern arm on ECM to sustain true HLB. We really need to see some energy swinging south to help support the HP otherwise it will inevitable sink south over eastern and central Europe. 

     

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